Here are my favorite plays for tonight’s two-game slate on DraftKings.
Odds Board
FIU @ Sam Houston State (-5.5) | Over/Under 41.5
New Mexico State (-3) @ UTEP | Over/Under 48
Core Plays
QB Diego Pavia, NMSU – $9,300
WR Noah Smith, SHSU – $6,400
WR Kelly Akharaiyi, UTEP – $6,200
This is a fairly easy and obvious core. It’s worth prioritizing Pavia over WR Kris Mitchell ($7,400) in my opinion because of opportunity cost — there aren’t two other good QBs t osubstitute in lieu of Pavia, but there are a few good WR options to play instead of Mitchell and he’s expensive. One should expect good rushing usage and another solid game for Pavia against a UTEP defense ranking 100th in EPA per play.
Noah Smith is a volume monster with 37 targets across his team’s last three games — second-most nationally and 14 more than any other WR on this slate in that span. Akharaiyi has struggled with bad QB play for much of this year but has exactly 10 targets in back-to-back games and is coming off a monster performance, so he looks poised to do some damage over the back half of the schedule as this team’s clear-cut WR1 for as long as Tyrin Smith is out. This offense always funnels targets to its top dog and that’s what Akharaiyi is this year, so expect plenty of usage going forward with a lot of those targets coming deep downfield (16.4 aDOT).
Priority Plays
QB Keegan Shoemaker, SHSU – $6,600
Shoemaker has been a solid target for us lately and I don’t see a huge reason to not go back to the well. SHSU has been throwing the ball a ton — Shoe has 38, 41, and 48 attempts across his last three games and incidentally has at least 19 FPs in all three of those contests. It won’t be efficient, but there’s a lot of volume, easy stacking opportunities, a soft matchup (FIU allowed 302 passing yards and 2 TDs to UTEP last week, a team on like it’s fourth-string QB), and he runs the ball a bit.
RB Terrance Burgess Jr., UTEP – $5,900
RB Kejon Owens, FIU – $5,300
You have to play someone at RB on this slate. Burgess and Ownes are both locked into timeshares but have been the better backs for their respective teams and have more speed and explosivity. Your other options include the NSMU backs (three-way rotation, little usage, heavy QB run involvement) or SHSU (dealing with injuries to four RBs, have essentially only thrown the ball lately).
WR Jeremiah Ballard, UTEP – $4,900
WR Malik Phillips, SHSU – $5,100
Both Ballard and Phillips are terrific options on this slate as secondary targets in their offenses that offer salary relief from the top dogs. UTEP’s second WR is usually heavily involved and Ballard has the keys to that role for as long as Smith is out. He has 36 targets on the year (fourth-most on the slate) and 21 of those have come over the last three weeks. He’s fine in all formats but his massive aDOT (19.9) means he is better suited for tournaments. Phillips is fine in all formats after posting 10-118-0 on 13 targets last week. The speedster had 5-94-0 the week before that and has clearly stepped up into a large role now that this team is throwing the ball more.
Secondary Plays
QB Keyone Jenkins, FIU – $6,200
QB Cade McConnell, UTEP – $5,500
Both of these QBs are viable but are fairly clear No. 3 and No. 4 in the pecking order at QB on this slate in my opinion. Jenkins was terrible last week in a soft matchup and was knocked out of the game due to injury but is allegedly good to go. He has some dual-threat ability with a rushing TD in four straight games, a clear stacking option in Mitchell, and gets a decent matchup against a regressing SHSU defense that ranks 83rd in EPA per pass and 84th in passing success rate. It sounds like McConnell is getting the start again for UTEP and while he isn’t an enticing option, he does have some stackable WRs and a cheap price tag.
RB Deion Hankins, UTEP – $5,400
Hankins is the other RB I’d consider on this slate unless fitting in Thomas, Lawrence, Gentry, or Watkins in tournaments just to get different and see what happens. I don’t think Hankins is particularly good but he’s a lumbering RB for a Dane Dimel-coached team and it seems like the staff wants to force-feed his touches, especially around the goalline, now that he is back to full health after being slowed for much of the early part of the schedule. He has 34 carries across his last two games and is viable in all formats but I like him more in GPPs considering he doesn’t catch passes and is entirely reliant on TDs.
WR Kris Mitchell, FIU – $7,400
Mitchell is always a great play on these short slates as he has 35-636-4 receiving on the young season. It’s more about an opportunity cost than anything else with him this week as to why he’s listed as a secondary play — I’d just prefer to start my lineup with cheaper WRs receiving a massive workload. Mitchell’s metrics are amazing — he has 3.01 yards per route run and leads all WRs on this slate with a 77.5 receiving grade per PFF. I don’t love the fact that he doesn’t have a 100-yard receiving game this season against an FBS school and also hasn’t found the end zone in three weeks, and a lot of his damage on the year came from a 9-201-2 blowup against an FCS school. Then again, SHSU was an FCS school just last season . . .
WR Al’Vonte Woodard, SHSU – $5,000
Another piece of this offense that is viable for as long as SHSU continues to huck the ball over 40 times per game, Woodard is a former 4-star recruit who looks like a great bet in GPPs. He’s more touchdown-reliant than his teammates Smith and Phillips but has a very realistic chance of outsourcing his teammates if he finds the endzone a time or two and has 17 targets across his last two games for 10-98-2.
WR Trent Hudson, NMST – $5,800
The volume simply won’t be there in this passing attack so GPPs only as Hudson has 25 targets in 7 games this year. He’s coming off a 3-122-2 blowup and while that probably won’t be repeatable, UTEP ranks 117th in passing explosiveness defensively and has struggled mightily in the secondary for two straight years, which is troubling considering NMSU’s passing offense relies on hitting big plays (14th in passing explosiveness). Hudson leads the slate with 3.08 yards per route run and has a massive 17.4 aDOT. His teammate, Jonathan Brady ($5,700) is also a GPP dart throw for similar reasons as he has 28 targets for 18-338-3 on the year.
WR Josiah Miamen, FIU – $3,600
WR Kordell David, NMSU – $3,300
Punts!
PrizePicks
Pavia OVER 22.5 Fantasy Points
Akharaiyi OVER13.5 Fantasy Points & OVER 64.5 Receiving Yards
Shoemaker OVER 256.5 Passing Yards
Phillips OVER 12.5 Fantasy Points
Smith OVER 16.5 Fantasy Points
