There’s a quick little two-gamer tonight for MACtion. Brevity is the soul of wit, and it’s likely wisest to keep these MAC thoughts brief and the entry fees at a reasonable level.
Odds Board
Buffalo (+8.5) @ Miami, OH | Over/Under 39.5
Central Michigan (+11) @ Ohio | Over/Under 47
Core Plays
QB Kurtis Rourke, Ohio – $7,200
RB Sieh Bangura, Ohio – $6,800
WR Sam Wiglusz, Ohio – $5,900
Full Ohio stack for me to begin lineups. The offensive has been underwhelming this year but still holds massive advantages over an inept CMU defense that ranks 131st in EPA per play. Rourke and Wiglusz is an affordable stack and Bangura has finally come on strong of late. Bangura is the clear #1 play on the slate in my opinion. Sammy had a goose egg last week and is a core play of mine, so that tells you about all you need to know about this slate.
Priority Plays
RB Rashad Amos, Miami – $6,900
I am not used to playing Miami RBs but we might need to make an exception here as Amos has rushed for nearly 300 yards across his last two games. Miami’s QB is hurt and there doesn’t seem to be much of an offensive game plan lately so Amos has emerged as threat No. 1. Buffalo is a weird defense in that most of their numbers are good (39th in EPA per play, 26th in rushing success rate, 17th in line yards, 18th in stuff rate) but they’re allowing 28.2 PPG and surrendering 175.3 rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry. They’re susceptible to surrendering chunk gains, ranking 132nd in rushing explosiveness. Overall, Amos looks like a strong play and will be in nearly all of my lineups, although I do think that there’s more volatility than meets the eye.
QB Jase Bauer, CMU – $7,500
RB Marion Lukes, CMU – $7,000
Both of the top CMU assets are fine, and I much prefer Lukes. This is a very tough matchup against an elite Ohio defense that ranks top-10 overall and is stout against the rush (first in EPA per rush, eighth in rushing success rate). Still, Lukes has been getting a ton of usage and can be used a bit in the receiving game if his team falls behind. He has 21 carries in back-to-back games and 21+ DK points in three straight. There’s like a 25% chance Bauer plays so poorly tonight that he gets benched for Bert Emanuel Jr. ($5,500), who is much more talented, fun, and cheap. Bert is fine as a flier in GPPs as he’ll go under-owned and could break the slate pretty easily after returning to health a week ago. Anyway, Bauer is also fine because he runs a lot.
Secondary Plays
QB Aveon Smith, Miami – $6,800
He runs a bit, has a cheap stacking option (if his WR1 plays!), and I refuse to play Snyder, so that’s enough for Smith to be in some of my lineups.
RB O’Shaan Allison, Ohio – $5,000
CMU’s defense has been so tremendously awful that you can play two Ohio RBs. Allison has been losing work lately (finally, praise be!) but is a decent receiver and has enough production this season that once could expect double-digit DK points in a soft matchup.
RB Ron Cook Jr., Buffalo – $5,900
He doesn’t look great to me but he gets some pretty good volume and a handful of receptions, so he could be optimal and makes sense in cash.
WR Gage Larvadain, Miami – $5,600
He’s questionable after leaving last week’s game with a hammy. If he plays, he’ll be in my lineups. He’s averaging 18.9 DK PPG which is nearly four more than any other WR, but he comes with the obvious caveat that he’s no longer going to be as productive without his QB1. Buffalo limits explosive passing plays pretty well (23rd) which is a concern as that’s what Gage will rely on in this matchup.
WR Miles Cross, Ohio – $5,500
Cross is fine in all formats as the clear WR2 for and Ohio team with a great matchup. His 66 targets are just 4 shy of Sammy Wiggles on the year and his 1.71 yards per route run is narrowly ahead of Sammy’s 1.68. He’ll be in most of my lineups as a double stack with Rourke.
WR Boobie Curry, Buffalo – $4,100
Curry was good to us last week as he had 10.6 DK points on a cheap salary of $4,000 and there hasn’t been a big price bump. He’s mostly been an empty volume guy, receiving 55 targets on a healthy 11.3 aDOT but having little to show for it until last week. He’s a high variance play but his team will be playing from behind and Miami, OH checks in at just 74th in passing success rate defensively.
Also in consideration:
WR Jessie Prewitt, CMU – $5,300
WR Tyler Walton, Ohio – $5,200
WR Nik McMillan, Buffalo – $3,500
WR Darrell Harding, Buffalo – $4,000
