Woof. Talk about ugly slates — two games with totals in the high 30s on a sleepy day after Halloween. I’m just calling it like it is — no need to feel overconfident on your reads or plays with this slate because the teams all stink and it’s a wild card kind of slate that I think is best suited for GPP players, which is weird to say about a two-gamer.
Odds Board
Ball State (+5.5) @ Bowling Green | Over/Under 39.5
Kent State (+3.5) @ Akron | Over/Under 38.5
I played some Ball State +5.5 and the Under doesn’t look terrible in that game either. Bowling Green leads the FBS in turnovers but doesn’t have much of an advantage if it doesn’t win the turnover battle here, and it’ll be a low-scoring slogfest where I’d rather have the underdog.
Core Plays
RB Marquez Cooper, Ball State – $7,400
RB Terion Stewart, BGSU – $8,000
RB Jaylen Thomas, Kent State – $5,000
WR Crishon McCray, Kent State – $5,700
Three of the teams on this slate want to run the ball a ton, some I’m not overthinking it and I’m jamming those three RBs to start my lineups. Cooper and Stewart are the obvious chalk as the far and away best skill position players on the slate. Neither Ball State nor BGSU has been able to throw the ball and both are the clear focal points of the offense. Ball STate is good up front (19th in line yards, seventh in stuff rate) and should plow over a BGSU front that ranks 125th in stuff rate and 116th in rushing success rate. Stewart is stud and faces a Ball St defense that is good by MAC standards (held Georgia to under 100 rushing yards!!) but still ranks just 104th in rushing success rate.
Thomas has taken over the Kent State backfield and that means a whole lot of unsuccessful carries. He has a whopping 64 carries across his last three games but has yet to crack double-digit fantasy points in any of them. Akron began the year with strong rush defense numbers but has since fallen off a cliff, recently getting burned for 711 rushing yards and 11 rushing TDs across its last three games. His teammate, McCray is a lock in cash and the top WR on the slate as he’s caught at least 5 passes in four straight games while averaging 12 targets per game in that span.
Priority Plays
QB Kiael Kelly, Ball State – $6,500
I suppose we have to play at least one QB on this slate. Ball State can’t throw the ball a lick and has played three QBs but one would assume Kelly gets the start again after getting the nod in each of their last two games, one a one-score loss to Toledo and the other their first conference victory. He’s a runner who has posted 256 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs across his last three games and like I mentioned earlier, Ball State should be able to move the ball on the ground in this matchup.
RB Lorenzo Lingard, Akron – $6,700
There are certainly crazier things to do than playing four RBs on this slate — the QB options are just that bad. Akron probably has someone on offense who has a successful day in a soft matchup against a Kent State defense that ranks 115th in EPA per play. Lingard seems like the best bet as he’s scored 11+ DK points in more than half of his games this season. I suppose there’s not a lot separating him and Thomas in this spot so Lingard can be played as your third RB instead of Thomas and that’s viable, or you can get wild and play 4.
WR Daniel George, Akron – $5,500
This offense has been a colossal disappointment — there’s no way around it. Still, they throw it a ton (16th in pass rate) albeit with terrible efficiency (133rd in EPA per pass), but George looks like a good bet to eat up some volume after handling 24 targets across his last two games alone. That makes him a good look in cash games and he’s fine in all formats while his teammates Alex Adams ($5,400) and Jasiah Gathings ($4,900) play full-time roles and see a decent amount of targets. I prefer Adams over Gathings.
RB LJ Johnson, SMU – $4,900
RB Camar Wheaton, $5,500
WR Matthew Golden, UH – $6,700
WR Matthew Golden, UH – $6,700
Secondary Plays
QB Connor Bazelak, BGSU – $6,100
I suppose he’s my preferred second QB, but like I said you don’t even need to force that in all lineups. He has two games of 20+ DK points this year and that alone puts him above the Kent State (rotating QBs) and the disaster that is Akron. Of course, BGSU has been rotating QBs lately too but it was Bazelak who saw the majority of playing time last week and he has a clear stacking option in …
Odieu Hiliare, BGSU – $4,000
Not sure what’s going on with this price. Sure, BGSU stinks, but so does every other passing attack on this slate. His recent performance is dreadful, but he has two double-digit outings to start the year after a productive end to last season, so we’ve seen what he can do before and that’s more than we can say for many other players on this slate.
WR Tanner Koziol, Ball State – $4,000
WR Qian Magwood, Ball State – $6,000
I’m fine playing Ball State pass catcher in lineups. The volume will be ugly as this team will rush first, second, and third — and that has me preferring Koziol, who leads his team in targets (45) with one more than Magwood and should continue playing a big role with fellow tight end Brady Hunt out for the year.
PrizePicks
None have been offered as of the time of this writing.
