There’s a quick little two-gamer on tap tonight, so of course I have you covered with my favorite plays.
Odds Board
UTEP @ FIU (-2.5) | Over/Under 44
Sam Houston State @ New Mexico State (-3.5) | Over/Under 42
This one sure is ugly. All four of these teams stink out loud and Vegas is telling us that we’ll be fortunate to see 80 points from all four teams combined. Yippee!
Core Plays
QB Diego Pavia, NMSU – $8,300
RB Torrance Burgess Jr., UTEP – $6,400
WR Noah Smith, SHSU – $5,900
WR Kris Mitchell, FIU – $7,400
These core plays are pretty obvious as Pavia, Smith, and Mitchell will be close to auto-click chalk. Burgess is my favorite RB on a slate that is brutal for the position as he has 13+ DK points in two of his last three games and gets a decent matchup against an FIU defense checking in at 85th in EPA per rush, 109th in rush explosiveness, and 131st in power success rate. UTEP should look to control this game in the trenches considering it ranks 54th in line yards and 29th in power success rate and the veteran hogs are the only strength of the team.
Over the last two weeks, Smith led the country in catches and led all G5 receivers in targets. He should continue seeing a massive target share as Ife Adeyi is out for the year and it’s not a coincidence Smith has gone nuclear in in leui of his teammate since he’s been sidelined. He has 16 more targets than any other WR on this slate in that time frame, which, yes, is 8 more per game.
Mitchell is averaging 18.8 DK PPG and is a fairly easy play here against a UTEP secondary that ranks 97th in EPA per play and 123rd in passing explosiveness. He has more targets (46) than any other WR on the slate.
Secondary Plays
QB Keegan Shoemaker, SHSU – $6,100
So, the bad news is that SHSU’s offense stinks — they rank dead last in total yards per game, yards per play, and success rate. The good news is that they’ve been way, way better over the last two weeks and face a burnable NMSU defense that ranks 105th in EPA per play and 111th in success rate. It’s been particularly vulnerable through the air, ranking 109th in EPA per pass and 107th in passing success rate. Shoemaker makes sense and has a clear stacking option.
QB Keyone Jenkins, FIU – $6,700
He’s in concussion protocol but allegedly will play. He gets a favorable matchup and has a clear stacking option in Mitchell, and he has a rushing TD in three games. I expect him to be very popular and I think he’s fine in all formats.
QB Jordan Yates, SHSU – $4,500
If you want to do something weird on this slate, you can play Yates as your second QB even though he’s a running back. The Bearkats might be without their top 4 RBs and that should mean a decent workload for Yates, who once started games for Georgia Tech as a QB. Of course, he hasn’t recorded any stats this season and I’m not even entirely sure he’s still alive, but these are the depths that we’ve sunk to for this slate.
RB Deion Hankins, UTEP – $5,400
You could do crazier things than playing both UTEP RBs considering their forecasted advantage up front and the fact that the two backs have clear roles — Hankins could get a touchdown or two while Burgess gets most of the yardage and receptions.
RB Shomari Lawrence, FIU – $6,200
RB Kejon Owens, FIU – $5,800
These two split the workload pretty evenly and I spent some time trying to decipher which one was the better play before basically deciding you’re better off flipping a coin or throwing their names into a hat. Owens has a slightly better yards per rush figure (6.1 to 5.8) but Lawrence has the only four receptions. Both have 3 TDs. Their only big games have come against terrible defenses and UTEP isn’t good (108th in rushing success rate, 105th in EPA per rush) but also isn’t terrible up front (59th in stuff rate). Both of these plays are meh.
RB Tobias Weaver, SHSU – $3,000
He’s recorded stats this season (not good ones) whereas Yates hasn’t, so at least we know he has a pulse. That may be enough on this slate. He’s min priced but you probably don’t need the savings. This staff wants to run the ball and will as much as they can … but the issue is that they usually can’t (131st in rushing success rate, EPA per rush, and line yards).
WR Kelly Akharaiyi, UTEP – $5,400
I think he’s the clear third WR on this slate and almost considered making him a core play. He’s second on the slate in targets (40) and per usual with UTEP WRs has a big aDOT (15.9), although he does drop way too many passes with 9 on the year.
WR Jeremiah Ballard, UTEP – $5,000
Tyrin Smith is a game-time decision for this game, which makes things murky. He has an undisclosed injury and there was talk about him redshirting, so at this point I’d be mildly surprisided if he suits up on Wednesday. If he does, he’ll be in most of my lineups and that makes Akharaiyi less bankable. If he doesn’t, Ballard deserves strong consideration as he’s fourth on the slate in targets (31) and has two double-digit DK showings this year. UTEP usually concentrates their passing attack on two main WRs and I think it’s justifiable to play two of them naked, or with the QB if you prefer to go that route.
WR Al’Vonte Woodard, SHSU – $4,600
He’s a former 4-star Texas recruit who broke out with 4-46-2 last week playing a near full-time role. He makes a lot of since with a Shoemaker-Smith-Woodard double stack if you go that route, but he’s a volatile GPP play IMO considering he had all of one catch before last week. This team has no RBs and the passing attack has been click so I’d expect them to keep hucking it here in a winnable matchup.
PrizePicks
Akharaiyi OVER 38.5 Receiving Yards
Burgess OVER 60.5 Rushing Yards
Shoemaker OVER 230.5 Passing Yards
