It’s taco MACtion Tuesday and we’re back with a preview for tonight’s three-game slate.
Odds Board
Toledo (-10.5) @ Bowling Green | Over/Under 51
Akron (+4) @ Eastern Michigan | Over/Under 39
Western Michigan (+5) @ Northern Illinois | Over/Under 56.5
Core Plays
RB Peny Boone, Toledo – $7,700
RB Jalen Buckley, WMU – $7,500
WR Trayvon Rudolph, NIU – $6,500
I’m paying up for the two obvious choices at RB. You can play a third with these guys as well, but most of the other options are either injured, in a timeshare, or both.
Toledo is a big favorite, Boone has been a fantasy monster, and his team holds huge advantages over BGSU on the ground:
| Toledo O | Metric | Bowling Green D |
| 46th | EPA per rush | 104th |
| 24th | Rushing success rate | 109th |
| 11th | Line yards | 95th |
| 40th | Stuff rate | 130th |
Buckley is a fantasy favorite for this up-tempo offense that loves to run the ball (32nd in rush rate). He gets a good matchup against a run-funnel NIU defense ranking 105th in EPA per rush, 111th in rushing success rate, and 129th in stuff rate. It seems fairly standard to start your lineup with these two and then figure the slate out from there.
Rudolph is my preferred WR in GPPs. He’s been relied upon more heavily recently and seems fully up to health, so he could continue putting forth big performances to end the year. He has 21 receptions across his last three games after seeing no more than 4 receptions in a game through Week 7. I’m not scared of the matchup and Rudolph has a high ceiling but a questionable floor.
Priority Plays
QB DeQuan Finn, Toledo – $8,800
Finn isn’t a core play only because he’s so expensive, but he does project as the clear QB1 on the slate. He’s already had duds against 3 MAC teams this season so he’s not a lock to pay off this price tag, especially if this one gets out of hand against a high-variance BGSU team that relies on creating turnovers.
QB Rocky Lombardi, NIU – $7,000
Playing Rocky is always a wild ride because you’re probably going to get a poor performance and few attempts, but when he hits you feel like a genius because it’s a MAC slate after all, and how much difference is there really between teams and players? I’m stacking Rocky and Rudolph this holiday season. WMU is bad against the pass (106th in EPA per pass, 97th in passing success rate, 93rd in passing explosiveness) and Rocky runs a bit, so this is a nice recipe for fantasy success in a pace-up game.
WR Kenneth Womack, WMU – $6,100
It wasn’t too long ago that we got 1% owned Womack on a main slate where he was priced in the low $5ks. This is why CFB DFS is the best thing in the world. Womack has been too cheap forever and has 15+ targets in three of his last five games, so he’s very difficult to get away from in cash. He’s not a core play only because I’m prioritizing the RBs on this slate and going Rudolph in GPPs, but in cash lineups, you probably start with the two RBs, Womack, and Jackson. NIU is a very tough matchup (16th in passing success rate, third in passing explosiveness) which is why I’m opting for Santa’s point guard in GPPs.
Secondary Plays
QB Jeff Undercuffler, Akron – $5,700
He’s as likely to get you 0 or negative points as he is to have a nice day at the office, so … yikes. But, he’s affordable and has two obvious stacking options. EMU’s metrics aren’t bad defensively but they might’ve quit on the season and they are prone to big plays through the air (103rd in passing explosiveness). Plug your nose if playing the Undercuffler.
RB Jaylon Jackson, EMU – $5,600
Jackson seems to have taken the reigns in the EMU backfield after handling 16 carries compared to Samson Evans’ 4 a week ago. Jackson is a good receiver who had 9-111-1 through the air two games ago so he looks fine in all formats. He faces an Akron team that has oddly performed well on a down-to-down basis (33rd in EPA per play 28th in success rate) but has been prone to allowing a ton of big plays (124th in explosiveness). Jackson is more explosive than Evans so this seems like a decent spot for him. It’s easy to play 3 RBs on this slate and Jackson is my preferred tertiary target at cost, but you can also consider …
RB Antario Brown, NIU – $6,700
He’s a hit-or-miss player so better off in GPPs. Still, he’s a very talented rusher with game-breaking (and slate-breaking) ability if he hits a few large runs and has 22-167-1 as recently as two weeks ago. He’s crushed incompetent defenses (55 DK points against Akron, 25.7 against CMU) but has put up three duds in his last four games. WMU is an odd matchup… they’re pretty good against the run (74th in EPA per rush, 50th in rushing explosiveness) and create a lot of havoc up front (27th in front seven havoc) but can get pushed off the ball (123rd in line yards). Overall this isn’t a very good matchup but that might not matter.
WR Daniel George ($4,500) and/or Jasaiah Gathings ($4,600), Akron
These guys both look like strong one-offs. They can also be played with Undercuffler (plug your nose) or you can play both of them without their QB, which looks like a fun little leverage spot to me. They both get good volume (second and third on the slate in targets) and are super cheap. I prefer George slightly, especially in cash, as he’s had a huge target share lately, but both are fine in all formats.
WR Hamze El-Zayat, EMU – $3,900
WR Anthony Torres, Toledo – $3,800
WR Jalen Johnson, NIU – $3,700
WR Chris Carter, NIU – $3,400
WR Dane Pardridge, NIU – $3,000
These are your paydown options. None are very enticing whatsoever, but they can fill a lineup opposition as a punt option. Most of them will be on the field a decent amount but rarely command more than a few targets per game.
PrizePicks
Jalen Buckley OVER 92.5 Rushing Yards
Peny Boone OVER 80.5 Rushing Yards
