Back with another two-game CUSA slate to kick off the week. No rest for the wicked, right? Good news is there’s no KJ Jefferson on this slate to trick me into playing him. Bad news is I didn’t have time to write up the waiver wire column this Monday — sorry if you were looking for that one yesterday.
Odds Board
New Mexico State (+2.5) @ Lousiana Tech | Over/Under 52
Liberty (-5) @ Western Kentucky | Over/Under 61.5
Core Plays
QB Diego Pavia, NMST – $9,300
RB Quinton Cooley, Liberty – $6,300
WR Malachi Corley, WKU – $7,500
I’m starting most of my lineups with Cooley and Corley, who are the obvious top plays at their position and are free squares on a short slate.
Pavia has been tremendous for us this season so I see no reason to back off him here, although I will point out that the price is scary and there are actually decent QB options for every team on the slate. You don’t have to play him, but he’s my QB1 on the slate so I’m trying to find a way to play him in most lineups as most of his production comes on the ground and he should be able to find a lot of success there against a LA Tech defense checking in at 113th in both EPA per rush and rushing explosiveness.
Priority Plays
QB Kaidon Salter, Liberty – $8,700
It’s going to be difficult to fit him into lineups but I’m still going to try. This kid is averaging a hair off 30 DK PPG and is an elite rusher at the position. I don’t WKU’s defense (107th in success rate) at all and don’t have a problem playing both Salter and Cooley as that was a good leverage position last week. Liberty’s offense has been cooking (17th in EPA per play, 13th in success rate) and holds advantages both on the ground and through the air while the offensive line also should have its way.
RB Charvis Thornton, LA Tech – $4,500
RB Tyre Shelton, LA Tech – $6,600
This one is dependent on health and availability, two things we don’t have an answer for and may not know until close to kickoff. Monitor updates carefully if playing this slate. Shelton would be a good play but he left last week’s game and is considered questionable to suit up. Cumbie’s comments didn’t sound super enthusiastic and this room is thinned by injuries, so whoever plays and gets the start will be in a lot of my lineups. Shelton’s PFF metrics have been great so he’s a better option but is also more expensive, so I’m kind of hoping he’s ruled out before kickoff so that I can fit a cheap Thornton as my second RB and pay up elsewhere.
WR Smoke Harris, LA Tech – $7,000 (Cash)
WR Cyrus Allen, LA Tech – $6,100 (GPPs)
I get that the structure of this is confusing but there’s no perfect way to say it — what I’m saying is that I’m prioritizing one LA Tech RB and one LA Tech WR. It depends on availability (RB), salary, and format (WR) who that is …
Smoke has been a PPR monster, catching 11 passes in each of his last two games. That makes him viable in all formats and especially appealing in cash games. This offense is really weird and frankly lacks a cohesive plan most of the time, so there’s actually a little bit of volatility as Smoke has had two duds this year already. Those have been surrounded by monster games so for the most part I think that he’s a great option going forward. He leads the slate ith 74 targets this year but Corley has just four less in two fewer games so he’s my clear WR1 on the slate. Allen is a clear GPP target as a downfield burner with a massive 18.7 aDOT. He’s all or nothing but I like that he’s getting targets (47 on the year which is third on the slate, 10 targets in three of his last five games).
Secondary Plays
QB Austin Reed, WKU – $8,200
QB Hank Bachmeier, LA Tech – $6,000
Your other two QB options on this slate. We’ve been correctly fading Reed this year and I don’t see a huge reason to stop doing so as he’s yet to complete at least 60% of his passes against an FBS opponent this year. To be fair, Liberty’s secondary was surprisingly torched for 332 passing yards and 4 TDs by MTSU last week so it’s possible Reed breaks out here at home. It’s unclear if Bachmeier starts but he probably should and is the only cheap option at the position and operates an Air Raid offense with clear stacking options. All four QBs are viable on this slate.
RB Monte Watkins, NMST – $4,900
RB Star Thomas, NMST – $5,700
I hate playing New Mexico State RBs because they’re more likely to get you single-digit carries than double-digit DK points as this team loves divying up the carries and Pavia is this team’s best rusher. Still it’s a short slate and LA Tech is dreadful against the rush. Watkings has been more effective this season but has more than 5 carries in a game just once all year — last week when he rushed for 109 yards against UTEP.
RB Jacob Fields, LA Tech – $3,400
Punt play who gets some goal-line work and therefore could fall into a touchdown, especially if Shelton is out.
WR CJ Daniels, Liberty – $5,900
Daniels is the WR1 in this offense and is still boom-or-bust as the Flames huck it deep when they do throw the ball. If he catches a few then he has a big game (four games with 19+ DK points) and if he doesn’t then he drops a turd (three games with fewer than 4 DK points). He’s as all-or-nothing as they come and is a GPP-only target.
WR Jimmy Holiday, WKU – $4,000
WR Mousaa Barry, WKU – $3,300
WR Davlin Smith, WKU – $4,500
WR KD Hutchinson, WKU – $3,400
WR Craig Burt Jr, WKU – $3,200
Any of these WKU receivers are fine and you’ll probably play at least two of them on this slate. Paying down for them allows you to get the studs elsewhere. I listed them in order of preference (Holiday first) although there isn’t a lot separating these guys because none of them have been good. Holiday continues to play a big role and got on the field for an SEC school so he’s my favorite per-cost option. Barry played more snaps than any non-Corley WR last week and tied with Holiday for targets (5). He’s seen 27+ pass snaps in each of his last three games and is simply too cheap, so he’s my favorite sub-$4k option on the slate. Smith isn’t seeing the field much but is a red-zone target and could theoretically get more burn as he continues to heal from an injury, although that’s speculation. Hutchinson and Burt are both punt dart throws who are on the field enough the make a difference but haven’t done so to this point in the season.
PrizePicks
Quinton Cooley OVER 97.5 Rushing Yards
Cyrus Allen OVER 62.5 Receiving Yards
Malachi Corley OVER 88.5 Receiving Yards
