Tuesday night’s three-game slate brings a fair amount of intrigue with some good options and even a Sun Belt contest to watch in addition to the bad CUSA football. These midweek contests sure are a grind but who is going to complain about football on TV every single day? Not this guy!
Note: I’ve been getting more trolls lately for some reason. First off, if you’re hating on the picks then 1) you must be new here and 2) kindly stop gambling your money because you’re clearly not in a position to be doing so. A ton of time and effort goes into the research for these picks. They don’t hit every week – duh! I hear crickets when I post plays that personally land me a five-figure takedown and hear more comments when one play goes wrong. Either sack up or log off — I’m focused solely on analyzing games and handicapping, and then relaying that information — I’ll spend no more time on the brainless trolls.
Odds Board
MTSU @ Liberty (-13.5) | Over/Under 54.5
Western Kentucky (-7) @ Jacksonville State | Over/Under 61
Southern Miss @ South Alabama (-17.5) | Over/Under 53
Core Plays
QB Kaidon Salter, LIB – $8,600
RB La’Damian Webb, SALA – $6,200
WR Malachi Corley, WKU – $7,800
WR Caullin Lacy, SALA – $7,000
It seems crazy that Austin Reed isn’t a core play, but Salter has been better, he runs more, has a better matchup, and is slightly cheaper — so he’s the core play at QB. I don’t think MTSU’s defense completely stinks but their rankings of 88th in EPA per play and 93rd in success rate are last on the slate.
Webb, Corley, and Lacy are all pretty easy clicks as the skill positions. Webb was a top-4 round draft pick in season-long CFF leagues and has at least 19 DK points in four of his last five games. There are four good RBs to choose from on this slate so I suppose you don’t need Webb in your lineups as there are other really good options, but his price is so affordable here at home as a three-score favorite that he’s RB1 on this slate against a USM defense that ranks 124th in EPA per rush, 128th in rushing explosiveness, and 130th in yards per play (6.8). There aren’t many appealing WRs on this slate and Corley and Lacy are both averaging over 25 DK PPG, so I see no reason to fade them other than hoping to get lucky with leverage in GPPs.
Priority Plays
Breaking this out into another section because it seems like some people think that a “core” play means you play them in 100% of lineups. I can’t tell if these people are plain stupid, just trolling, or have never played DFS before — in either case, I’m not sure how they ended up on my articles but am adding another section called “priority” plays where I list my favorite of the “secondary plays”.
QB Carter Bradley, SALA – $7,100
I’m finding it exceedingly difficult to get to both Reed and Salter in the same lineup, so I’m listing Bradley as my second-favorite QB play due to price. Don’t expect anything crazy from Bradley but he’s a decent bet for 20+ DK points against a Southern Miss team that ranks 115th in passing explosiveness and has been beaten by every passing offense with a pulse that it has played.
RB Frank Gore Jr., USM – $5,100
I’m playing three RBs in most lineups as there are 4 good RBs to choose from and not many good WRs on the slate other than the two obvious ones. Gore gets the toughest matchup (SALA ranks 22nd in EPA per rush, 14th in rushing success rate) but is also arguably the best player on this slate talent-wise regardless of position and is getting a fantastic workload, handling 20+ carries in three straight games and averaging 26 touches per game in that span. USM can’t block a lick (125th in line yards, 123rd in stuff rate) and SALA is good up front (30th in defensive line yards) but Gore is still viable given his talent, opportunity, and cheap price tag.
RB Anwar Lewis, JACST – $4,200
Anwar Lewis was expected to be Jac St’s top RB heading into the year but was injured and has come on slowly. He saw his biggest workload of the season last week with 15-81-0 rushing while adding a reception for 19 yards, although the staff has said that he’s still not at 100%. He’s an explosive player and this offense could rely on him with uncertainty at the QB position and RB Malik Jackson doubtful. WKU’s defense has always stunk lately and probably always will. The Hilltoppers can’t stop the rush at all, ranking 112th in EPA per rush, 121st in rushing success rate, and 101st in rushing explosiveness. Lewis makes a ton of sense in all formats as he allows you to pay up for the two top WRs, two other good RBs, and one top QB.
RB Quinton Cooley, LIB – $6,900
I wrote up Cooley this week for my Waiver Wire piece and naturally am a big fan of his game. MTSU is decent up front (44th in defensive line yards, 35th in stuff rate, 20th in rushing explosiveness) but Cooley is still viable in all formats for a Flaming Libs team that loves to pound the rock (fourth in rush rate). Cooley has rushed for 100+ yards in three straight and in four of his last five.
Secondary Plays
QB Austin Reed, WKY – $9,000
Reed was a first-round pick in CFF season-long formats, so of course he’s viable on a short slate. He hasn’t come close to paying off that price tag, however, as WKU’s offense is regressing yet again this season. The Hilltoppers still operate a very fantasy-friendly scheme, however, ranking fourth in pass rate, and should be able to huck it successfully against a Jac St defense ranking 96th in EPA per pass and 119th in passing explosiveness. This Gamecocks defense is kind of hit or miss, hitting when they are disruptive up front (most matchups) and missing when they don’t (454 passing yards surrendered to MTSU).
Whoever plays QB for Jacksonville State
Zion Webb is dealing with concussion protocol and Logan Smothers left last week with an ankle injury. There are no definitive or telling updates about either’s status as of the time of this writing, but Rich Rod was talking about how difficult it is to practice when you don’t have the QBs on hand to take reps, so it sounds to me like Webb and Smother haven’t been practicing much, if it all. Stay tuned closely for news. Ashton Frye ($4,500) played some last week and could be in line to start, which makes him worthy of consideration in all formats as a min-priced Rich Rod QB going against a suspect defense. They’ve played multiple QBs a ton this season and it seems like there’s a strong possibility of that happening again on Tuesday.
WR Jimmy Holiday, WKU – $4,000
WR Latreal Jones, USM – $3,300
WR CJ Daniels. Liberty – $6,000
WR Jakarius Caston, USM – $4,600
WR Jamaal Pritchett, SALA – $4,900
WR Dalvin Smith, WKU – $5,200
WR Elijah Metcalf, MTSU – $6,900
WR Holden Willis, MTSU – $6,300
WR Justin Olson, MTSU – $5,600
Any of these targets are fine as your third WR in lineups — I don’t have a strong preference for one over the other and it boils down to price and lineup construction. Holiday looks great again this week as he played a full-time role despite having only 3 targets — he’s a talented Tennessee transfer and this team throws it a ton, so if he’s out there he will find pay dirt sooner or later. I’m not sure why Jones is priced all the way down at $3,300 despite averaging 12.9 DK PPG and is a very strong paydown option if you want to afford more of the studs in your lineup. Daniels, Smith, and Willis I’d consider GPP options only, while Caston, Pritchett, Metcalf, and Olson are fine in all formats as they’ve been seeing a fair amount of targets. I don’t hate the idea of playing one MTSU player rather than fading the team entirely — they do throw a lot, but the issue is that they spread it around a fair amount. I think the pricing is right with their players and in most lineups I’ll go down to the $4k range instead, personally.
Player Props
- Malachi Corley OVER 92.5 Receiving Yards (FD) … also 95.5 on PrizePicks
- Kaidon Salter OVER 25.5 Fantasy Points (PP)
