I love CUSA and everything — heck, that UTEP vs. Sam Houston State game was pretty fun last night — but it sure is refreshing to have a midweek slate for other conferences. Here’s what I’m playing for tonight’s games.
Odds Board
Syracuse (+2.5) @ Virginia Tech | Over/Under 47
Georgia State (+1.5) @ Georgia Southern | Over/Under 62.5
You can see which game pretty much everyone is going to flock to — the Sun Belt contest is expected to have two more touchdowns than its ACC counterpart.
Core Plays
RB Marcus Carroll, Georgia State – $7,000
WR Derwin Burgess Jr., Georgia Southern – $6,400
WR Khaleb Hood, Georgia Southern – $6,000
Smallish core tonight as these three skill position players stand out. The two Georgia Southern wide receivers, Derwin Burgess Jr. and Khaleb Hood, are fairly easy lineup clicks considering wide receiver is pretty thin on this slate while QB and RB both go four deep. That means that you don’t have to play Carroll, but he’s still a fantastic play in all formats considering he has 20+ DK points in all but one game this season. It’s an odd matchup on the road against an Eagles defense that is good against the rush (58th in rushing success rate) on a down-to-down basis but allows far too many chunk plays (127th in rushing explosiveness). Perhaps that means Carroll has more volatility than it appears at first considering there are other good RBs worth playing on this slate, but in most lineups, you aren’t overthinking it and are playing the stud.
Priority Plays
QB Davis Brin, Georgia Southern – $6,900
QB Darren Grainger, Georgia State – $7,100
QB Kyron Drones, Virginia Tech – $6,400
QB Garrett Shrader, Syracuse – $7,400
It’s nearly impossible to format the article for this slate in terms of preference considering there are four QBs and four RBs that are all viable and there isn’t much separating them — it’ll really come down to roster construction and available salary, so I’m going to list all of these players under “Priority Plays”.
Brin is coming off two down games but his team is fifth in pass rate, hucking it 48.9 times per game, so the volume will be incredible and he has two clear stacking options. He makes a lot of sense in all formats and is hard to get away from in my opinion. I don’t find this matchup scary — remember when Georgia State gave up 408 passing yards and 4 TDs to Kasim Hill and Rhode Island? The Panthers have given up at least 268 passing yards in every game they’ve played other than last week’s strong showing against Louisiana.
Grainger, Drones, and Shrader are all similar because they’re all rushing QBs and have huge standard deviations in their performance as high-variance assets that are difficult to predict week to week. Close your eyes and pick a name? I know that sounds like shitty advice, but that’s essentially what it boils down to — who will happen to stumble into a productive week? Grainger is my my favorite because he’s been the most productive and his offense should have a decent advantage considering the Panthers rank 37th in EPA per play and 25th in explosiveness on offense while the Eagles check in at 103rd in EPA per play and 115th in explosiveness. The Eagles snap the ball 81.8 times per game — second-most nationally — which could lead to an uptick in production from Georgia State players on the flipside.
Drones makes sense as he has the third-highest rushing usage rate among QBs and that should continue being a large part of the offense here in a winnable home game. Shrader’s production has declined for four straight weeks but there’s nowhere to go but up after totaling 3.9 DK points in his last outing, right? I’m generally not a fan and Cuse’s offense has been stuck in mud, managing one single TD in its last two games while dealing with injuries to its offensive line and WR room. It’s been 34 days since the Orange have played a home game and now they have to deal with Enter Sandman on a short week. Still, Shrader threw for 236-2 and ran for 174-3 the last time he played VA Tech and is always liable to post an absurd stat line if he gets his rushing game going. He’s almost entirely reliant on ground production considering Cuse hasn’t been able to throw the ball at all lately, but Tech is bad against the rush (100th in EPA per rush, 119th in rushing explosiveness) so anything is possible.
RB Bhayshul Tuten, VA Tech – $5,500
RB Jalen White, Georgia Southern – $6,200
RB LeQuint Allen, Syracuse – $6,600
These RBs all look good — I’ll be playing three RBs in every lineup and honestly would consider playing four if looking to get a bit different/crazy. Tuten has been fantastic for VA Tech and has at least four receptions in each of his last four games so his PPR floor is decent. He might go overlooked on this slate but I think he’s a hell of a football player, at home against a mid opponent, running behind an OL that’s been much improved across its last three games. He has a very cheap price tag that allows you to get pretty much whatever you want elsewhere.
White has been injured for much of the year but was clearly healthy last week when he won Sun Belt Player of the Week after gashing ULM for 26-164-2 on the ground while chipping in 3-13 receiving. He’s a very good player and should be a big part of this offense moving forward, so better days are ahead even though the rushing volume may not be great considering this team wants to air it out on most plays. The staff even hinted this offseason that White was the team’s best player, which is eerily similar to what was said about his RB counterpart in this game, Carroll — and look how that one played out. Georgia State is pretty good up front (30th in rushing success rate, 34th in line yards, 29th in power success rate) defensively but so is Georgia Southern (6th in EPA per rush, 8th in rushing success rate, 16th in line yards, 6th in power success rate). You can play him with all of his teammates and not feel too weird about it — they run a ton of plays and have the highest implied total on the slate.
LeQuint looks good in all formats against a porous VA Tech rush defense surrendering 172.1 yards per game on the ground. Admittedly they’ve faced some good RBs and rushing attacks so far this year, but they’ve been burned badly more often than not. Recently they shut down Pitt (38 rushing yards) and Wake (35) but were gashed by Florida State (282). Cuse can’t block (100th stuff rate) and has some OL issues, so LeQuint may be more volatile than he initially appears. Still, he’s the clear focal point of the offense and four of the top five receiving options are either out injured or are playing at less than 100%, so he could see an uptick in usage.
Secondary Plays
WR Jaylin Lane, VA Tech – $5,800
Lane is the clear WR1 for the Hokies for as long as Ali Jennings is out and looks fine in all formats at an affordable price tag. He averages 15 DK PPG.
WR Robert Lewis, Georgia State – $5,500
Lewis has had a productive season, averaging 18 DK PPG. His 49 targets on the year are 10 more than any non-Georgia Southern WR on the slate and he has a strong 2.91 yards per route run and 77.8 receiving grade. His teammate Tailique Williams ($5,300) is an alright GPP dart as well — his 3.62 yards per route run is the most of any WR on the slate and he has tow games of 26+ DK points already this season.
WR Dalen Cobb, Georgia Southern – $4,400
WR Donovan Brown, Syracuse – $4,300
WR Jjay McAfee, Georgia Southern – $3,500
WR Keaton Upshaw, Georgia Southern – $3,800
WR Anthony Queeley, Georgia Southern – $4,700
Here are your paydown options for this slate. Any of the tertiary Georgia Southern receiving options are fine. Cobb has 30 targets on the year while Queeley has 38, but Cobb is better, has been more effective, and is used in the screen game a lot so has a higher floor which makes him especially appealing in cash. McAfee and Upshaw are both tight ends — Upshaw has been productive but is probably TD-reliant here in a part-time role now that McAfee is back and playing most of the snaps, making him the top punt play below $4K. Then you have Brown, Cuse’s slot guy who is second on the team with 38 targets — although his snaps have decreased now that Isaiah Jones ($5,200) is back in the picture.
PrizePicks
Hatcher Under 41.5 Receiving Yards
White Over 61.5 Rushing Yards
Brin Over 319.5 Passing Yards
