Back with a two-game slate tonight. DraftKings messed up the pricing with these players so it’s a very odd slate in which you’ll leave a fair amount of money on the table with your lineups. That’s more than OK and be aware of that as you assemble your lineups.
Odds Board
James Madison (-3.5) @ Marshall | Over/Under 49.5
Rice @ Tulsa (-3) | Over/Under 58.5
Core Plays
RB Rasheen Ali, Marshall – $6,700
RB Kaelon Black, JMU – $5,000
WR Luke McCaffrey, Rice – $6,900
WR Rawson MacNeill, Rice – $4,600
Here’s how I’m starting lineups today. The two JMU WRs who are mispriced are fantastic plays as well and at least one of them will be in all of my lineups, but I’m not considering with a core play as they’re less cut-and-dry than the Rice WRs, who make up a huge percentage of the Owls’ offensive production. There are also two clear QB that I’m playing in almost every lineup, but I’m once again not naming them as “core” plays because you can mix and match there and there’s a chance Daniels isn’t optimal in GPPs but his WRs are if another QB runs for a few scores.
Anyway, McCaffrey is obvious and MacNiell has 15+ DK points in three straight games as he grows into the Brad Rozner role in the offense. Rasheen Ali gets an extremely tough matchup as JMU was terrific up front a year ago and returned nearly every single contributor, so it’s not shocking that the Dukes rank second in rushing success rate defensively while surrendering just 42.8 rushing yards per game on 1.5 yards per carry. Still, Ali is basically Marshall’s entire offense and is locked into a usage-heavy role in which he probably catches enough passes to hit value even if he does have a miserable time running the ball. Black has had good PFF metrics for two years now, is a good receiving back, and faces a Marshall defense that has been woeful against the run (114th in EPA per rush, 133rd in rushing explosiveness). Their DL has been better than JMU’s OL and the Herd are a solid 37th in rushing success rate, so I suppose there’s a world in which Black doesn’t hit value if he doesn’t hit an explosive play. Regardless, it’s a short slate with limited options so I’m not going to overthink it.
Priority Plays
QB JT Daniels, Rice – $7,400
QB Jordan McCloud, JMU – $7,700
These are the two obvious QB plays. Daniels has been throwing it a ton (Rice is 7th nationally in pass rate) and has been doing so effectively as the Owls check in at 12th in EPA per pass and 15th in passing success rate. It’s an odd handicap because Tulsa’s metrics are terrible against the pass (116th in EPA per pass, 119th in passing success rate) but they’ve mostly been fine other than getting absolutely torched by both Washington and Oklahoma. Still, Daniels has been great and has two good stacking options, so I’m playing him. JMU doesn’t throw a ton but is really good when they do, for a second straight year, ranking 17th in EPA per pass and 18th in passing success rate. Tough matchup against Marshall and McCloud has been both good (26.7 DK points against South Alabama) and bad (9.9 DK points against Troy) against the top defenses he’s faced this season, so I’m not considering him a core play.
WR Elijah Sarratt, JMU – $3,400
WR Reggie Brown, JMU – $3,700
DraftKings’ algorithm screwed up yet again and now we have JMU’s top WRs at a bargain-bin price. Sarratt has been better lately but Brown has 7 more targets and 38 more receiving yards on the year. Brown has shown a high ceiling (36 DK points against Utah State) but a low floor (2.9 DK points against South Alabama), so he’s more of a GPP play while Sarratt is fine in all formats.
Secondary Plays
RB Anthony Watkins, Tulsa – $6,200
QB Braylon Braxton, Tulsa – $8,000
You may have noticed a lack of Tulsa players in this write-up. It’s not a terrible matchup against Rice, who is more vulnerable to the rush (101st in EPA per rush) and Tulsa has the statistical advantage in the trenches, so my favorite way to target Tulsa on this slate is as a one-off betting on Watkins or Braxton to score a rushing TD or two. Watkins gets a lot of work (58 carries across his last three games) but doesn’t catch passes and hasn’t been very effective, although he’s still fine in all formats with heavy usage on a short slate. It’s unclear who will start at QB for Tulsa but Braxton came on in relief last week and looked better than Cardell Williams ($7,500). Stay tuned for who starts as both will have low volume in the passing attack (Tulsa 127th in pass rate) but like to run the ball for a Kevin Wilson offense that prioritizes QBs using their legs.
WR Devan Williams, Tulsa – $5,500
Leading Tulsa WR Marquis Shoulders isn’t expected to play and that means Williams should be WR1 considering he has 10 more targets than any other Golden Hurricanes WR. He’s mostly used down the field (16.0 aDOT) and is a high-variance GPP play.
QB Cam Fancher, Marshall
I’m not a Fancher fan and I don’t like his stacking options, but he runs a lot (45 attempts in his last three games) and has been solid lately with 19.9 DK points in each of his last three games including a 36.1 blowup against NC State. The way to attack JMU’s defense is through the air (106th in passing explosiveness). Marshall spread the ball out pretty evenly as seven players have between 17 and 31 receptions, so my favorite way (other than a GPP dart) to play Fancher is by stacking him with Ali, who gets a handful of targets each game and should be peppered with targets if Marshall does go pass-heavy with the game plan.
PrizePicks
I’m not forcing any on this slate — the offerings are ugly and I find it more advisable to wait until another day. JT Daniels Over 292.5 Passing Yards shows a little bit of value on my end, but nothing else stands out.
