Yesterday sure was fun — all three PrizePicks cashed with ease and I’m assuming everyone’s lineups finished in the green. We’re back at it with a two-game slate.
Odds Board
West Virginia (-3) @ Houston | Over/Under 49.5
SMU (-12.5) @ East Carolina (-3.5) | Over/Under 49.5
Another two-game slate where both matchups have a total Under 50, but at least today we’re in the high 40s. SMU will be chalky but they do have a lot of options if you want to get different and WVU/Houston could change everything if both teams score back-and-forth per usual in Houston games.
Core Plays
RB CJ Donaldson Jr., WVU – $6,300
RB Jaylan Knighton, SMU – $6,100
WR Sam Brown, UH – $6,900
Smaller group of core plays or me here. There are three QBs that I find viable and I don’t have a strong preference for how I like them, so I’ll talk about them below as secondary plays. Donaldson and Knighton seem pretty easy to plug and play here as RBs for both favored teams. Houston has been awful on the ground (118th in EPA per rush, 112th in rushing explosiveness) and WVU runs the ball a ton (fourth in rush rate), so that play is easy. Rooster Knighton’s matchup isn’t quite as good as ECU is alright defensively on a per-play basis (25th in success rate overall, 16th in rushing success rate) but is prone to the big play (130th in explosiveness overall, 130th in rushing explosiveness). Rooster can scoot and I wish they’d use him more via the pass but he’s the best bet on a short slate. Donaldson is definitely my preferred play of the two so if you want to sub Rooster out in some lineups that’s doable.
Brown is my favorite WR in all formats because he’s the safest and still has a high ceiling. WVU’s defense has been good but I don’t trust the secondary at all which is weird to say since their second nationally in passing success rate. Still, they’re 126th in passing explosiveness, and that troubles me against any Uncle Dana-coached team — even a bad one (his specialty). Brown’s 2.47 yards per route run is nearly a full yard above his teammate Golden (1.54).
Secondary Plays
QB Garrett Greene, WVU – $6,900
QB Donovan Smith, Houston – $8,000
QB Preston Stone, SMU – $7,400
As I mentioned earlier, I don’t have a strong preference for these QBs and think it’s more about finding whatever stack works best in GPPs. For cash, I’m plugging Greene and Smith and forgetting about it. Greene runs a lot and has over 21 FPs in all three of his starts and has eclipsed 25 FPs in three of those. They can’t throw a lick but he will run a lot, so play him naked.
Smith stinks out loud, in my humble opinion, but has some great stacking options and gets great CFF usage because he hucks in 40 times per game and gets a lot of rushing work, especially at the goal line. As mentioned earlier I don’t trust WVU’s secondary even though this is a tough matchup on paper and Houston will be playing at home so I’d be surprised if Smith doesn’t reach 20 FPs and his upside is higher than you might imagine against a slow-paced, rush-heavy opponent.
Stone and the SMU offense has stunk out loud this season, which is shocking to me considering they’re a Lashlee-coached team and had arguably the G5’s best arsenal of skill position talent heading into the year. My best explanation is that Stone isn’t very good at football, contrary to his recruiting ranking. I’ve found him borderline unwatchable this season — which again, is shocking considering the expectation for this offense heading into the year. SMU destroyed an FCS school but Stone has otherwise been a CFF dumpster fire. Lashlee’s QBs nearly always find value and Stone can use his legs a bit, so I’d be surprised if Stone still doesn’t find his way as a fantasy contributor over the back half of the schedule. ECU is in love with surrendering big plays and SMU has a lot of fast dudes and ranks 15th in passing explosiveness, so Stone could hit some big plays against a secondary checking in at 122nd in passing explosiveness.
RB Parker Jenkins, Houston – $5,200
I’m not in love with Houston RBs and it’s not a good matchup on paper as WVU ranks 17th in EPA per rush and third in rushing explosiveness, but it’s a short slate and Jenkins has 36 touches across his last two games. That goes along with an affordable price tag to make him viable.
RB LJ Johnson, SMU – $4,900
RB Camar Wheaton, $5,500
This staff wants an RBBC and Rooster’s carries will be eaten into by one, or both, of these backs. Johnson could be a big-time leverage play as I think he might be the team’s best back and forecasts as the goal-line rusher when healthy. He went for 14-128-1 in the opener but hasn’t been healthy since, but reports seem to indicate that he’s probable for Thursday night’s game, and that makes him very interesting to me. If LJ doesn’t go, Camar (if he plays) is another leverage play, although he’s also injured per usual and isn’t my favorite.
WR Matthew Golden, UH – $6,700
I considered making Golden a core play and figure he’ll be heavily owned on this slate. He has 13+ FPs in four of five games this season and was a big time recruit that should eat in this pass-happy, up-tempo attack. He has 44 targets to Brown’s 46, but Brown has nearly doubled him up in yardage and is therefore a better cash and single entry play whereas Golden has 3 more TDs and is always a good look in tournaments. Both are fine in either format.
WR Joseph Manjack IV, UH – $5,800
Could go overlooked here with is teammates hogging the limelight and he’s the cheapest of the bunch. Has 10 fewer targets (34) than Golden but more yards, a higher PFF grade, and a solid 1.90 yards per route run that ranks second on the slate among WRs with at least 20 targets. The USC transfer is a baller and is a mighty fun watch so if you like cheering on that kind of thing as opposed to Golden’s tiresome diva antics, you can factor that into your lineup building if you’re so inclined. You can play all three of these guys together and it wouldn’t be close to crazy, either.
WR RJ Maryland, SMU – $4,700
The SMU receiving corp has been a mess to figure out so I’d prefer to just go with the guy who is on the field the most — tight end RJ Maryland. He leads the team with only 23 targets and is a big play waiting to happen against an ECU defense that goes to sleep at night dreaming about allowing more explosive plays. Sick. My second SMU option would be Jake Bailey ($5,500) and my third would be Jordan Kerley ($5,100) — Bailey is on the field most among WRs and is also targetted the most, while Kerley is on the field second-most and has the highest aDOT, which is notable in this matchup.
WR Jaylen Johnson, ECU – $4,100
Seems like an obvious punt play here and allows you to afford pretty much whatever you want. The slot role is the money position in this offense and they moved the Georgia transfer there this offseason as an obvious ploy to get him the rock more after they lost their other top four pass catchers from a year ago. He leads the team in targets (39) and routes run and is therefore obvious in cash formats and is fine in GPPs. Teammate Jsi Hatfield ($4,300) is a very fast human and is the second-leading target-getter (26) and is therefore fine in GPPs.
PrizePicks
Donovan Smith OVER 19.5 Fantasy Points
Samuel Brown OVER 14.5 Fantasy Points
CJ Donaldson OVER 85.5 Rushing Yards
Joseph Manjack OVER 46.5 Receiving Yards
Probably going to either look good or totally bomb depending on if Houston is able to keep the ball offensively.
