The top plays for Saturday’s main slate on DraftKings. I’m continuing the format with Core Plays and Secondary Plays as I hope you’ll find that more useful when constructing lineups.
Core Plays
QB Trenton Bourguet, ASU – $4,800
RB Ashton Jeanty, BSU – $6,800
RB Jonathan Brooks, Texas – $6,200
The core isn’t as strong this week, which means building multiple lineups might be the way to go. Even if you aren’t in the habit of doing that, it may be a good week to make at least a few — there’s more variance considering there are a lot of terrific RB plays but some difficult decisions to make at QB and WR. I almost didn’t include a core play for both of those positions but decided I had to include at least one for the purposes of the article. That being said — no one is a “lock” on this slate other than perhaps Jeanty.
Plug your nose if you’re playing Bourguet. I’ll have a decent amount of exposure as I’m not a fan of the pay-down options at other positions and would prefer to live in the $5.1–$6.9k range, which paying down at QB allows me to do. Bourguet is this week’s starter for the Sun Devils, who have been a revolving door at QB. I think it’s going underreported that Dillingham took over control of this offense before last week. He’s clearly a bright offensive coordinator after what we saw last year at Oregon, and ASU’s offense immediately looked much better against USC, gaining 21 first downs despite having an injured and bad QB (Pyne) and dealing with injuries to six of their top 10 OL. I don’t think that it’s a coincidence and think Dillingham has enough pieces to work with to make this offense come together a bit. It’s a lot of guessing and a lot of projection, but the skill position players are decent and Bourguet has had blow-up games in the past, so now that he’s back practicing and is the clear QB1 for this week at least (Pyne’s out again), I’m buying at this cheap price. Cal ranks 103rd in EPA per pass and 123rd in passing success rate — they stink defensively, especially in the secondary.
Jeanty is a man amongst boys and needs no introduction at this point. He leads the nation in scrimmage yards and broke 5-6 tackles every time he touched the ball last week. I don’t feel like that’s an exaggeration, either — this man is on another planet than the poor defenders trying to bring him to the turf. Memphis’ defense has played well this year but they’re not great against the rush (72nd in EPA per rush, 101st in rushing explosiveness) and are prone to allowing big plays through the air (81st in passing explosiveness), which is where Jeanty can hurt them in the screen game.
Brooks is Texas’ top RB and gets the luxury of facing a bad Kansas defense that ranks 94th in EPA per rush and 128th in rushing explosiveness. It’s a mismatch where the Longhorns check in at 13th in rushing explosiveness and Brooks has a favorable floor-ceiling combination considering he’s topped 17.4 DK points in 3 of 4 games and exploded for 28.4 last week. He has 25 missed tackles forced on the year (second on the slate) and is averaging a robust 4.12 yards after contact per attempt en route to a superb 85.3 PFF rushing grade.
Secondary Plays
QB Caleb Williams, USC – $10,500
QB KJ Jefferson, Arkansas – $7,300
QB Taylen Green, Boise State – $6,200
QB Seth Henigan, Memphis – $8,000
The quarterback position is not intriguing this week. Paying up for Caleb at one spot and down for Bourguet (or Green) at the other makes a lot of sense, as long as you can finagle it.
If you can’t afford Caleb, KJ Jefferson is worth consideration every week and has a fair price tag. They aren’t great at throwing it this year but found some big plays last week against a susceptible LSU secondary and could do so again against a beatable A&M secondary that ranks 82nd in EPA per pass and 114th in passing explosiveness.
Green has been a turd this year but has game-breaking running ability and a cheap price point, so he’s viable.
It’s hard for me to play Henigan at this price considering he usually doesn’t have a very high ceiling and his price is at no discount this week, but Boise State’s secondary has been so bad (110th in EPA per pass, 99th in passing success rate, 93rd in passing explosiveness) that I just might have to consider it. I mean really, this secondary just let Jayden Mayden remain perfect throwing the ball until midway through the third quarter.
There are some other QBs I might consider like Drew Allar ($8,500), Jalon Daniels ($8,000), Quinn Ewers ($8,700), Taulia Tagovailoa ($8,700), and Garrett Shrader ($7,400). They’re all fine but have their warts.
RB Rocket Sanders, Arkansas – $5,600
RB Blake Watson, Memphis – $6,500
RB Will Shipley, Clemson – $5,900
Rocket is back practicing this week and I’m assuming he’s going to start and get a decent workload considering Pittman could use a win here after a slow start to the year and a difficult schedule coming up. A&M is really good up front (second in line yards, seventh in front seven Havoc, 14th in rushing success rate) but apparently doesn’t practice live tackling, ranking 121st in PFF’s tackling metric and therefore unsurprisingly 103rd in rushing success rate. Rocket is an elite CFF RB priced like he’s a nobody, so he needs to be in consideration and I would’ve made him an easy Core Play if I had more word on his availability. Again, the way I’m reading the tea leaves is that he’s going to play and play a lot, for whatever that’s worth.
Shipley’s price is down and I like his matchup against a beatable Cuse defensive front in the 3-3-5 that ranks 71st in EPA per rush and 85th in rushing explosiveness. He didn’t look 100% last week and was favoring one arm over the other, which is concerning, but still managed to explode for 26.5 DK points and he’s Clemson’s best skill player.
I drafted Watson in as many leagues as possible for season-long and best ball, so I’m pleased that he’s averaged 28.1 FPs to start the year and is Memphis’ focal point offensively. He’s a really good back and the metrics showed that last year. I noted in my CFF guide that Watson is a better receiver than he’s been able to show and that I wanted to see him handle more targets, and he’s done just that at Memphis as he leads the team in receptions (24) and is second in receiving yards (211). That kind of work will keep him viable in all formats and this matchup is not as difficult as one might think as Boise has fallen off a cliff defensively to start the year, ranking 112th in EPA per play and 121st in success rate. They haven’t been good at defending the rush, checking in at 108th in EPA per rush and 126th in rushing success rate.
RB Nick Singleton, PSU – $7,100
RB Cam Skattebo, ASU – $6,400
Singleton has had a few down weeks this year but still has elite talent and could show that against an overmatched Northwestern defense, so he looks fine in all formats to me but especially in GPPs. Skattebo actually leads the entire slate in missed tackles forced with 26 this season, which is impressive considering there are some strong candidates to compete with like Jeanty and Brooks. I’m not sure I’d play him with Bourguet unless you’re doing some funky GPP formations, but he’s been really good and chips in for receiving work and goal-line work as a true bell cow. I wouldn’t get super crazy with the ASU guys but they all seem viable.
WR Xavier Worthy, Texas – $6,500
WR Elijah Badger, ASU – $5,700
I’m keeping these two in a band by themselves because they’re my top two WR targets as of early Thursday morning. I don’t feel particularly strongly about either, however, as WR is a total grab bag this week. Worthy always seemed priced too low for me — he has elite speed and is the top receiving weapon in an offense that will score a ton of points this year. I still think he’s priced down after last year but will improve upon last year’s numbers considering he was playing with a broken hand and bad QB play for much of the year. I haven’t watched every Texas game closely but both he and Ewers look a lot better to my eyes. Badger is tough to trust, I get it, but Dillingham made it a point to get him the ball last week as he racked up 9-88-1. Good matchup, cheap option, and easy to stack with Bourguet in a soft matchup.
WR Keandre Lambert-Smith, PSU – $6,100
WR Jeremiah Hunter, Cal – $5,900
WR Eric McAlister, BSU – $6,700
WR Deion Burks, Purdue – $5,700
WR Brock Bowers, Georgia – $5,400
WR Isaiah Williams, Illinois – $5,700
WR Roc Taylor, Memphis – $6,100
A lot of wide receivers to choose from in this range, and I don’t see a lot differentiating them — they’re all fine, and it just boils down to lineup construction.
KLS is Penn State’s top WR and gets a great matchup against a Northwestern secondary that ranks 120th in EPA per pass, 118th in passing success rate, and 117th in PFF’s coverage grade.
Hunter is fourth on the slate with 35 targets this year and the clear No.1 receiving option in a Spavital scheme. He has 15.8+ DK points in 3 of 4 games this year and should continue eating now that he no longer has Sturdivant to compete with and has gotten a scheme upgrade.
McAlister leads the slate in WOPR and has the third-most targets (37) on the slate behind only Williams (39) and Xavier Weaver (45). Weaver might not even play this week and will be banged up if he does, making the other target hogs interesting options even though their passing attacks aren’t super reliable.
Burks is priced down every week because he plays for Purdue but he’s seeing a lot of targets (33) and is a big-play threat, so he’s always viable. Bowers is a college tight end so of course he’s too cheap, and he’s a GPP-only target who could explode for 30 DK points if he touches the ball more than three times, which is anyone’s guess.
Roc Taylor has been a beast for Memphis with 14.9+ DK points in 3 of 4 games and most recently posted 7-143-0 against a good Mizzou secondary. It’s hard to believe I’m saying this, but it is indeed a good matchup against a Boise State defense ranking 121st in coverage and 118th in tackling. Taylor has 29 targets this year overall and 19 across his last two games.
WR JT Sanders, Texas – $4,700
WR Javion Antonio, Colorado – $4,600
WR Colston Loveland, Michigan – $4,500
Jalin Conyers, ASU – $4,000
WR Max Klare, Purdue – $4,100
DK did a better job this week in finally raising the prices of some of the bargain-bin-priced fellas who had no business being there, especially at tight end. That means we don’t have as many paydown options as usual, so I’m trying to avoid the $3K range skill guys this week whenever possible. I think that’s doable as long as you pay down a tad at quarterback — and that position isn’t juiced too bad, so I think it’s doable.
My favorite $4K range receivers aren’t very enticing this week to be honest. Sanders finally got a price increase as DK is finally starting to acknowledge that college tight ends exist — something that their algorithm doesn’t account for since they’re listed as WRs. Sanders is still more than fine at this price and is fine in all formats. Loveland is way more hit-or-miss for Michigan because they run 29 plays a game so the volume stinks, but he’s super talented and is liable to have some big games this year. GPP only. Conyers continues the theme of gross ASU talk. He might be the most important this week considering he’s arguably the best option at $4k or below. Early season box scores don’t show it but he’s a game-breaking tight end with a high ceiling and the floor could be worse.
Antonio looks like my favorite in this range if Xavier Weaver misses the contest. Antonio is a big-bodied WR who made an immediate impact last week after returning from injury. Terrell Owens’ young padawan could have a nice game if Weaver is out because Colorado leads the country in pass rate and is playing a suspect USC defense that considers tackling optional — some weeks they do it and look fine, but many weeks they choose not to and look terrible. If Weaver plays I like Antonio a lot less but still think he’s viable.
Klare is the latest beneficiary of DK’s refusal to price Purdue assets within any range of sanity — he has a healthy 22 targets on the year and has posted 11.5+ DK points in 2 of 4 contests.
