Odds Board
Notre Dame (-3) @ Clemson | Over/Under 45
Texas A&M (+3) @ Ole Miss | Over/Under 53.5
Kansas State (+4.5) @ Texas | Over/Under 50.5
Arkansas (+6) @ Florida | Over/Under 50
Army (+19) @ Air Force | Over/Under 31.5
Mizzou (+15) @ 54.5 | Over/Under 54.5
Penn State ( -10) @ Maryland | Over/Under 51
Florida State @ Pitt | Over/Under 51
Virginia Tech (+9.5) @ Louisville | Over/Under 48.5
Oklahoma (-6) @ Oklahoma State | Over/Under 60.5
James Madison (-5.5) @ Georgia State | Over/Under 54
Note: Ohio State vs. Rutgers is currently off the board.
Core Plays
QB Jordan McCloud, JMU – $8,100
WR Elijah Sarratt, JMU – $4,800
There’s not a big edge for the Dukesin Week 10 initially on paper — their offense ranks 66th in EPA per play, which is identical to Georgia State’s defensive ranking. The Panthers have been much better against the rush (21st in rushing success rate) than the pass (95th in EPA per pass, 87th in passing success rate) and check in at 121st in PFF’s coverage grade. There’s a big advantage for McCloud and company through the air here as they’ve been dominant throwing the ball in the Sun Belt, ranking 12th nationally in passing success rate. McLoud has at least 24 DK points in five straight games while averaging 31.3 DK PPG. That makes him an obvious play in cash with his cheap receiving options. I’ll be playing him in all formats as he’s been consistent and has shown a high floor, although we may need a rushing TD from him to payoff GPPs. He’s rushed for four TDs in his last five games so has pretty good odds of doing so again.
Sarratt just makes too much sense this week and is my preferred JMU WR to stack with McCloud this week. The pricing is terrible. I preferred Brown when he was cheaper and he paid off, and now I’ll take Sarratt as a cheaper price considering he’s had a higher floor while maintaining a good ceiling and therefore is fine in all formats while being a near lock in cash. It’s a very advantageous matchup as I expounded upon in McCloud’s write-up, and Sarrat has 20+ DK points in three of his last four games, notably exploding since McCloud took over at quarterback. He was low-volume to start the year but has since become a much bigger part of the offense, seeing 8+ targets in three straight games and 5+ targets in five straight.
Priority Plays
QB Dillon Gabriel, Oklahoma – $8,900
Gabriel looks like a good play every week as he’s a good runner and thrower for a Jeff Lebby offense. It was pretty messy out last week so I’m not overly concerned with his low passing numbers, and they could run the ball at will for most of the game against Kansas so simply chose to take that approach rather than throwing in unadvantageous conditions. He’s scored 30+ DK points five times this season and has never scored fewer than 23, so he’s fine in all formats with a good floor-ceiling combination. The Cowboys are a good matchup — they rank 95th in EPA per play and 126th in explosiveness defensively while showing more vulnerabilities through the air than on the ground. There’s not a lot separating my three favorite QBs this week, so while I considered McCloud a core play as he’s the best points-per-dollar option, he’s not a lock and my top three will be in heavy rotation when I’m building lineups.
QB Carson Beck, UGA – $8,500
I seldom play UGA quarterbacks — or any UGA asset other than Brock Bowers, really — in DFS. That being said, it’s not a good slate for QBs and Beck is viable this week. He’s in the $8k range where I mostly want to live and while I prefer McCloud and Gabriel, it’s not unreasonable that Beck outscored them f he gets a rushing TD or two. He’s been really hucking the ball lately, throwing for at least 313 passing yards in four of his last five games. The TDs haven’t quite been there but those aren’t sticky and he has a clear path to 30+ DK points if he finds the end zone multiple times, which he easily could against a Mizzou defense that has well underperformed by preseason expectations, ranking 53rd in EPA per play and 90th in explosiveness. I’ll qualify my Beck shared by saying that the passing production isn’t guaranteed to continue sans do-everything target Brock Bowers and Mizzou’s defense has been better lately. Still, I’m bullish on Beck this week.
RB Ollie Gordon, Oklahoma State – $7,200
I’m an Ollie Gordon fan and it’s been nice to witness his emergence and explosion. He’s topped 20 DK points in five straight games and has had three straight blowup games with 47+ DK points. The matchups haven’t always been soft, either, as he’s still managed to be productive in tough outings. It may not be a blowup week against Oklahoma (33rd in EPA per rush, 14th in line yards, second in stuff rate) but the Sooners do give up some big plays on the ground (106th in rushing explosiveness) and Gordon has been too good to ignore. I pointed out last week that the Sooners’ defense wasn’t as good as its reputation and Kansas proceeded to pop for 6.1 yards per play while rushing for 225 yards and four touchdowns. Each of the Sooners’ last three opponents have scored 34+ points while gaining at least 5.6 yards per play, so this matchup isn’t as tough as it appears at first.
RB Jawhar Jordan, Louisville – $6,700
Jordan has been tremendous this season, posting 23L DK points five times with explosions of 31.3, 32.2, 34.8, and 42.9. He returned from a hamstring injury to gash Duke for 21-163-2 last week and simply must be in the player pool against a Hokies defense that has had huge liabilities against the rush this year, ranking 87th in EPA per rush and 121st in rushing explosiveness. That’s trouble against a game-breaking back like Jordan. I will point out that they’ve seemed to fix some of those issues recently, holding Pitt to 38 yards on 24 rush attempts, Wake to 35 yards on 31 attempts, and Cuse to 0 yards on 25 attempts. Those three teams do stink, however, and sandwiched in between the Pitt and Wake games is a 36-282-3 bomb from Florida State, which is a close comparison to what the Hokies will face here. All of those stingy performances from VaTech’s defense came at home, too, where they’re a way better team, and this is a home game for Louisville. There’s not much separating him and players like Gordon and Henderson.
RB TreVeyon Henderson, OSU – $6,500
It’ll be a fine day when Henderson is no longer on CFB DFS slates. He’s injured 60% of the time, hobbled for another 20%, but otherworldly for the remaining 20%. He was otherworldly last week in his return to the lineup, blowing up for 24-104-1 rushing with 4-45-0 receiving for 33.7 DK points against Wisconsin. In the last four games that we’ve seen him, he’s eclipsed 19.4 DK points every time. This rushing attack has been bad but Henderson has been productive regardless so he’s actually my favorite OSU player this week considering the way to attack Rutgers’ stingy defense has been on the ground (47th in EPA per rush, 118th in rushing success rate).
WR Reggie Brown, JMU – $5,000
You can easily do a double-stack with McCloud — it’s too affordable, and it’s a good matchup. Brown is a boom-or-bust player best suited for GPPs considering he’s had three games of at least 27.6 DK points this season (including 36 and 38.2) and four games with single-digit efforts. He has 13 more targets than Sarratt (61 to 48) on the year and an elite 3.16 yards per route run while averaging 20.3 yards per reception as the Dukes’ deep-ball threat (14.3 aDOT), which is obviously notable considering Georgia State has a propensity for giving up big plays (117th in explosiveness).
WR Eugene Wilson, Florida – $5,300
The youngster has been incredible and Florida seems content to air it out this season (32nd in pass rate), so I expect Wilson to be very popular this week with such a low price tag. He has at least 15.3 DK points in three straight games and has double-digit points in four straight. Arkansas’ defense is much better than last year’s unit, especially in the secondary, but the Hogs can still be fried. They rank 56th in passing success rate and 114th in passing explosiveness while PFF grades them 86th in coverage. Arkansas is pretty good up front and has a big statistical advantage in the trenches (26th over 86th in line yards, 30th over 118th in stuff rate, 17th over 101st in front seven havoc) so Florida’s game plan should involve a lot of Wilson again in Week 10.
WR Robert Lewis, Georgia State – $6,300
Lewis is coming off a game in which he posted 12-97-1 on a whopping 18 targets, so of course he’s in the player pool regardless of matchup. If you watched that game it was absurd, too, as Grainger looked his way seemingly every play to force-feed him touches. The Panthers haven’t played from behind much this season but were last week and likely will again this week against a surging Dukies team. While JMU is elite defensively, its sole weakness is allowing big passing plays (116th in passing explosiveness).
Secondary Plays
QB Darren Grainger, Georgia State – $7,000
I won’t have many shares as this is a difficult matchup against a very tough JMU defense allowing just 337.8 yards per game while ranking third in success rate. Still, Grainger is an elite rusher at the QB position and is priced at just $7,000, so there’s absolutely a case to be made here on his behalf and he also has affordable stacking options. JMU is dominant in the trenches and probably will be again here, which could mean a lot of negative rushing plays for Grainger, and it’s worth pointing out that he has just 7.22 DK points in his toughest matchup of the year. Still, he put up 31.56 DK points in his sole other difficult matchup (Marshall) the very next game and is a high-variance player, so a boom week is always in the cards regardless of matchup.
QB Kyron Drones, VaTech – $6,300
QB Alan Bowman, Oklahoma State – $6,200
QB Max Johnson, Texas A&M – $6,000
I don’t like the pay-down options at QB this week, but here’s who I’d consider. Drones is an elite rusher at the position who gets a ton of usage and has scored 17+ DK points in five of his last six games, but this is a very tough test against a Louisville defense that ranks 8th in EPA per play, fifth in line yards, and 11th in havoc and stymied Notre Dame. Bowman is nice leverage off Gordon and will be in a nice game environment, although his stacking options are very difficult to figure out because a new WR emerges every week — but if you get the right one, you could be dealing money. Johnson stinks and is an impossible watch, so plug your nose if playing him and do yourself a favor and don’t watch the game. He’s still viable since he’s cheap and has clear stacking options.
RB Emmanuel Michel, Air Force – $6,400
RB Nicholas Singleton, Penn State – $5,900
RB Bhay’shul Tuten, VaTech – $6,000
Here are some other RBs I’m considering, although I’ll still have low ownership considering I want to prioritize the stud RBs on this slate. Michel has been fantastic and should get 20+ carries with the goal line work, and the per-play efficiency should be there for an elite Air Force offense against an Army front that ranks 128th in EPA per rush, 110th in rushing success rate, and 123rd in rushing explosiveness. That’s, uhh, really bad, and Michel has 30+ upside. The downside is that this is a game between two service academies and possessions will be at a premium. Singleton is too cheap, but Penn State’s offense is a mess. He’s fine. Tuten is an incredible player and gets a decent amount of PPR looks but I’m not sure you need to get to him this week as he’s in a similar price range to some absolute monsters.
RB Tawee Walker, Oklahoma – $5,800
RB Jovantae Barnes, Oklahoma – $4,300
Either Oklahoma RB is fine this week, although I’d play them in a non-Gabriel lineup unless you’re alternate stacking for GPP leverage. Walker has been this team’s lead back but injured his ankle and is a game-time decision, so monitor this closely for news. If he’s out or severely limited, Barnes could emerge as nice value on a slate without much value other than at WR. Barnes is this team’s best RB but hasn’t been healthy after having offseason foot surgery to fix something that’s been bothering him since HS. He was rumored to be making his return LW after not playing since Week 3 but then didn’t have any impact … until Walker was hurt and Barners was trusted as the RB on the field when Oklahoma was trying to pull off the conference road victory. This room has been a mess all season and that’s no different now, but Barnes could absolutely smash at this price if Walker is out and Major is still limited, which as of right now is a realistic outcome. Teammate Gavin Sawchuk has been bad this year and the staff doesn’t seem to trust him, whereas the only thing holding back Barnes is health.
WR Marvin Harrison Jr, Ohio State – $8,900
MHJ is probably the best player in college football and needs no introduction at this point. His price tag sure is hard to get to, especially since I want to pay up at QB this week, but he’s a priority play nonetheless and I’ll keep looking for value in order throughout the week in order to fit MHJ into my lineups. Kyle McCord is a trash can but he is capable of doing one thing — honing in on MHJ and relentlessly feeding him the requisite targets for his team to find the end zone. It’s a bad matchup as Rutgers leads the nation in limiting explosive plays while ranking 21st in EPA per pass, 26th in passing success rate, sixth in passing explosiveness, and sixth in PFF’s coverage grade. Still, MHJ is a different animal entirely and Rutgers has a pretty weak schedule, so I’m not too afraid.
WR Jamari Thrash, Louisville – $6,600
I like Thrash a lot every week and he needs no introduction at this point so I’ll spout my usual routine — DK doesn’t price Brohm assets correctly. He’s fifth among healthy WRs on this slate in DK PPG yet seventh in price, so this discount isn’t quite as steep this week. Still, the $6k range has been a good place to live with WRs on DK because their tiered system doesn’t really work considering elite WRs are still priced in that range — there are simply more productive assets in college than there are in the NFL on most slates since college usually has more offense (unless it’s slate with five Big Ten games, which isn’t the case this week). I’ll mostly be paying down a bit further at WR this week considering the $4.8–$5.3K looks tremendous, but the $6K range needs to be heavily considered every week as you’re getting elite assets at mid prices. He averaged just 4.8 less DK PPG than MHJ yet is priced with a $2,300 discount, so it’s not too hard to figure out that this is the range to live in most weeks when building lineups.
WR Luther Burden III, Mizzou – $6,900
Tough matchup against UGA but he’s priced with a huge discount per DK’s usual algo idiocy and is viable considering his team should be playing from behind. He averaged just 0.2 DK PPG less than MHJ yet is $2,000 cheaper. The Dawgs haven’t faced many good WRs but allowed 7-71-0 to USCe’s Xavier Legette in Week 3, and 11-75-1 to Eugene Wilson III and 6-99-0 to Ricky Pearsall against Florida last week.
WR Evan Stewart, Texas A&M – $6,100
My thoughts on Johnson mostly apply to Stewart considering they play together. Stewart is an incredible player, however, and could see 10+ targets per game moving forward as he was a usage monster to start the year but has since fallen off due to injury. He returned from the bye week looking the best he has in a while and had 11 targets. While that didn’t result in a big game, he’s too good not to have some bright weeks and that’s in play against an Ole Miss defense that ranks 80th in passing success rate and 71st in explosiveness.
WR Keon Coleman, Florida Stae – $7,000
Coleman ended up being a pretty easy play last week after teammate Johnny Wilson was announced out for the game, and naturally, he smashed with 25.6 DK points. He’s been easy to figure out for me for two weeks this year, the other being when he dropped 32 DK points on Syracuse in a game where Wilson was out. He’s a high-variance player because he doesn’t have bankable volume unless Wilson is out. Wilson practiced on Sunday so one would assume he suits up this week, which would return Coleman to a GPP-only type of flier, but he’s so talented that he could blow up regardless and needs to at least be considered and monitored every week. If Wilson is out again then you know what to do. I didn’t hear Wilson mentioned much in Tuesday’s practice notes and there isn’t a ton of reason to play him this week against a bad Pitt team, so he could be about again. If he is, Jaheim Bell ($5,000) can be in the player pool despite his ever-increasing price tag.
