The last week of the regular season is here. Time sure does fly, doesn’t it? Here are my favorite plays for the Saturday main slate over on DraftKings.
Odds Board
Washington State (+16.5) @ Washington | Over/Under 68.5
Texas A&M (+11.5) @ LSU | Over/Under 66
Houston (+13.5) @ UCF | Over/Under 61.5
BYU (+17) @ Oklahoma State | Over/Under 56.5
Vanderbilt (+27) @ Tennessee | Over/Under 56.5
Colorado (+22) @ Utah | Over/Under 52
Kentucky (+7) @ Louisville | Over/Under 50.5
Arizona (-10.5) @ Arizona State | Over/Under 50
Alabama (-14.5) @ Auburn | Over/Under 48.5
Ohio State (+3.5) @ Michigan | Over/Under 46
Navy (+18) @ SMU | Over/Under 45.5
Pitt (+6) @ Duke | Over/Under 42
Priority Plays
Similar to last week in that I don’t consider anyone a core play. Instead, I’ll list my few favorite initial leans before diving into each position.
QB Jayden Daniels, LSU – $11,000
Hard to not love Daniels here as he’s averaging an absurd 43.2 DK PPG, which is 15.6 points clear of the next-closest signal caller. He’s in a class of his own and deserves this price. There are enough paydown options at other positions (especially the next player on this list!) that he can be afforded, although stacking him is nearly impossible. It’s mostly been dumb to stack him anyway unless you play it wisely — he runs a ton and his WRs have been priced to the heavens lately. You can force a stack or play him naked, and he’s great in all formats.
RB Aidan Robbins, BYU – $4,100
Robbins has been a bust this season but is looking like a great option this week as a super cheap starting RB who has 15+ DK points in two of his last three outings. He exploded for 22-182-0 against Oklahoma last week and looks to be at full health, and the volume is super encouraging as he appears to be the workhorse. BYU always had a huge and talented OL, but it was underperforming for much of the year. It looks like they’re finally playing better unless this was a total flash in the pan. I’m thinking it might not be a one-hit wonder due to the talent on board. Robbins faces a terrible Oklahoma State defense (109th in EPA per play, 128th in explosiveness). Although the Cowboys aren’t terrible again the run (76th in EPA per play), they do give up a lot of chunk plays (124th in explosiveness).
QB John Rhys Plumlee, UCF – $8,200
JRP has been dealing with an injury for much of the year and has been playing with a huge knee brace. He’s still managed to be effective while not being his usual explosive self, which is impressive considering his entire game revolves around explosiveness via his legs. He’s rushed at least 13 times in each of his last three games while accumulating 211 yards and a touchdown in that span, so he seems to be fine enough to contribute. He gets a smash spot at home against a terrible and injured Houston defense checking it at 114th in EPA per play and 124th in success rate. They don’t create pressure (119th in front seven havoc) and can’t cover anyone (117th in PFF’s coverage grade, 132nd in passing success rate) so this is a dream matchup. JRP has played better at the Bounce House, averaging 31.69 DK PPG, and it wouldn’t be surprising in the least to see him exceed that figure on Saturday.
RB RJ Harvey, UCF – $7,200
An unconventional JRP/Harvey QB/RB stack seems like a fun way to start GPP lineups. Harvey has been a monster this season, rushing for 1,160 yards and 16 TDs while averaging 24.1 DK PPG. UCF’s offense has been so good (16th in EPA per play, third in explosiveness) that they should absolutely go nuts here. Even if they don’t hit their ceiling, Harvey should have a productive game and seems like a great cash play especially.
Jaylen Wright, Tennessee – $5,200
Tennessee has a defensive end masquerading as a QB and is heavily reliant on its run game. Good news for them is that they are good at running the ball and should smash on the ground against a terrible Vandy rush defense (120th in EPA per rush, 125th in rushing explosiveness). Wright is the best player on this offense and has a tremendous blend of size, power, and speed, and will overwhelm Vandy. The obvious issue is his workload as they like to divvy up carries — he has single-digit attempts in three straight games and no more than 11 carries in five straight. He’s still managed 15.4 DK PPG this season on a reduced workload and could see a slight uptick now that they’re not either blowing a team out or getting blown out themselves, as those scenarios have been the case for four of the Volunteers’ last five games. That explains the reduced workload a bit, although Huepel’s scheme still likes to spread it around.
Secondary Plays
QB Cameron Ward, Wazzu – $8,800
Ward is all over the place and you never know what you’re going to get. It’s either 35+ points or a complete stinker, and usually not much in between. This is a difficult matchup to call because the Huskies aren’t very good defensively (61st in EPA per play, 104th in success rate) but are much better against the pass (ninth in EPA per pass, first in passing explosiveness) than the rush (130th in EPA per rush, 128th in rushing success rate). Wazzu can’t run at all and Washington should be able to drop 8 pretty easily here. I’m more pessimistic about Ward than I am optimistic, but he has clear 30+ upside with stackable options and can be considered a GPP play.
QB Jalen Milroe, Alabama – $9,500
Milroe has been too expensive for my liking by that’s caused me to miss his ceiling games (51.26 DK points against LSU, 41.96 against Kentucky). He could smash again here against an Auburn defense that just had difficult with another dual-threat QB in Diego Pavia. In case you haven’t heard, Bama and New Mex State are on two different levels as a program. Auburn’s defensive metrics aren’t bad so I’m still not sure this is a smash spot, but you’ll probably feel dumb like me if you fade Milroe again and he makes you pay for a third time in four weeks. This offense doesn’t have much else going for it other than Milroe going berserk.
QB Bryson Barnes, Utah – $7,100
Holy shit, are we really going to play Barnes in DFS? It feels ugly, but he has a fantastic matchup against a putrid Colorado defense. He runs a bit and has 20+ DK points in four of his last five games, with 28 DK points in four of those. That’s a large enough sample size that we can expect Barnes to have another good game at home here against Prime Time.
QB Preston Stone, SMU – $8,400
QB Donovan Smith, Houston – $8,200
I’m grouping them together because I’m not in love with either but still see a path for both. They both can run, play for CFF-friendly offensive schemes, have been productive for the most part, and have fine matchups. I don’t think either is a very good QB and both have some issues, however. Stone’s team has resorted to running the ball for the most part and possessions should be limited against a service academy, but Navy’s secondary (69th in EPA per play, 101st in success rate) should be overwhelmed. Smith isn’t healthy and can hardly throw the ball, but he runs a lot and gets a beautiful matchup against a bad Oklahoma State defense in a game with the highest total on the slate.
QB Nate Yarnell, Pitt – $5,800
Your paydown QB option for this slate. He had 20.68 DK points last week and has earned another start. Honestly, he looks pretty good and even was decently mobile (5-24-1 rushing) so I’m not sure why he wasn’t playing earlier. He’s so cheap that he’s viable, although there are obvious concerns that he threw only 19 passes last game, we’re working with a miniscule sample size, and he now has to play on the road. Oh yeah, and Pitt’s offense is dreadful (121st in EPA per play, 114th in success rate). Still, the price opens up a lot of other possibilities.
RB Ollie Gordon, Oklahoma State – $9,000
If you can find the money for him, go ahead and pay up. He’s clearly not at 100% and looked pretty gimpy for much of last week’s game but still managed 44 DK points because he’s a god playing among mere mortals. He gets yet another favorable matchup against a BYU defense ranking 100th in EPA per rush, 126th in PFF’s rush defense grade, and 123rd in their tackling grade. Not much else needs to be said about Ollie and he’s the clear top back on this slate. There are affordable options elsewhere at the position if you want to pay up for him and down (Robbins, Wright especially) at another spot or two.
RB Ja’Quinden Jackson, Utah – $5,300
Why not end the year just like I started it — losing money playing Jackson? JJ has been super frustrating this year as he’s been dealing with an ankle injury the entire season. He’s lookeed a bit better lately with 10+ DK points in three straight, although there are still workload concerns as he has no more than 13 carries in his last four. That’s likely purposeful as he’s proven he can’t consistently handle high volume while staying healthy, effective, and in the lineup. Still, he’s playing Coach Prime’s joke of a defense and could rush for 4-5 TDs and no one would blink an eye because the Buffaloes are a carcass.
WR Malik Nabers, LSU – $9,600
He’s so expensive that I’m not sure how much exposure I’ll have. Daniels has more of an edge over the other QBs than Nabers does at WR, and the price difference is comparable. Still, he’s been absurd this season and should kill A&M’s secondary as the Aggies check in at 124th in passing explosiveness.
WR Brennan Presley, Oklahoma State – $5,900
Oklahoma State’s WRs have been a mess to figure out this season. Well, it’s impossible to ignore Presley’s 19 targets last week or the fact that he took them for 15-189-0. The outside WR rotation became a bit more muddied now that Jaden Bray ($4,400) has returned to the fold, even though he played sparingly enough last week. Presley has 9+ targets in three straight games and 6+ in eight straight, so he’s been the lone constant. BYU is far from a formidable opponent (90th in EPA per pass, 113th in passing success rate) and Presley is far too cheap, so he’s great in all formats.
WR Devaughn Vele, Utah – $5,000
Vele is the third Utah play to make this list and he might be my favorite of them all. He’s been a monster lately, seeing 39 targets across his last 4 games once this Utah offense’s identity switched. He has 15+ DK points in all of those outings and has 22.5+ DK points in three straight. This is a dream matchup against a Colorado secondary ranking 120th in EPA per pass and 130th in passing success rate.
WR Landen King, Utah – $3,300
There’s a slight worry that Utah dominates this game so much in the trenches that they don’t throw many pass attempts at all and Barnes and Vele fail to pay off. The guy I think is most game script-dependent in this offense is TE Landen King. We know Andy Ludwig loves his TEs, but Utah hasn’t had any good, healthy ones this season. I noted previously that King, an Auburn transfer, is the best receiver of the group and he’s started to show that lately with 10-123-1 across his last three games while seeing 15 targets in that span. I think he’s the clear top option below $4k this week in a great matchup.
WR Elijah Badger, Arizona State – $5,700
He’s a volume hog and this team’s best offensive player, so of course he’s viable in all formats at a cheap price in a game where ASU yet again projects to be playing from behind. He has a whopping 30 targets across his last 2 games and there’s no reason to expect that to change with Bourguet under center and No. 2 wideout Xavier Guillory out for the year.
WR Lincoln Victor, Wazzu – $6,800
WR Josh Kelly, Wazzu – $6,300
Either Wazzu WRs are fine — Victor in all formats but especially cash, and Kelly in GPPs. Muhammad on Washington has been a lockdown corner to my eyes and mostly plays on the outside, so I’d guess he matches up with Kelly a fair amount. PFF isn’t as big of a fan as Muhammad’s work (they blaspheme!), and Wazzu will throw a ton anyway, so both of these options are viable. Victor’s 48 targets across his last 4 games lead anyone on the slate.
WR Kody Epps, BYU – $4,800
Epps is a longtime favorite of mine and it’s nice to see him finally healthy and have his first big game of the year against Oklahoma last week. He’s far and away the most talented pass catcher on this team, in my opinion, and it would be 0% surprising if he continues to lead the team in targets going forward. The only thing that’s held him back is health — Sitake said he’d be essentially week-to-week for the entire year earlier this season, meaning he’s had to work through a lot simply to find his way to the field.
Other paydown options:
WR Dalton Carnes, Houston – $3,500
WR Germie Bernard, Washington – $4,100
WR Jalin Conyers, Arizona State – $3,900
WR Jaden Bray, Oklahoma State – $4,400
WR Jordan Hudson, SMU – $4,200
