Make a wish — it’s the 11/11 main slate preview. Let’s dive into some of this week’s top plays.
Odds Board
Oklahoma State -2.5 @ UCF | Over/Under 65.5
Texas Tech +3.5 @ Kansas | Over/Under 62.5
Washington State +1 @ California | Over/Under 59.5
Tennessee -1.5 @ Missouri | Over/Under 58.5
Georgia Tech +14.5 @ South Carolina | Over/Under 55
Arizona -10 @ Colorado | Over/Under 54.5
Tulsa +23.5 @ Tulane | Over/Under 53.5
Miami +14 @ | Over/Under 51
Utah +8 @ Washington | Over/Under 50
Minnesota +1 @ Purdue | Over/Under 47.5
Alabama -11 @ Kentucky | Over/Under 47
Michigan -4.5 @ Penn State | Over/Under 45
A decently well-rounded group of games this week with two games in the 60s, two in the upper 50s, five more in the low-to-mid 50s, and three in the mid-to-upper 40s. The Oklahoma State/UCF game will be the most heavily stacked if you’re an ownership bro. I think you have the freedom to pretty much do whatever you want on this slate as there aren’t many “cross-off” games this week, so having a strong position on one or two games could be enough for leverage.
Core Plays
QB Noah Fifita, Arizona – $6,000
RB Ollie Gordon II, Oklahoma State – $7,900
RB Makhi Hughes, Tulane – $5,800
WR Lincoln Victor, Washington State – $5,800
Here’s the core I’m starting most lineups with, a four-man group with at least one player for each position.
Fifita’s price here is a joke against a Coach Prime team that finds playing defensive optional. The Buffs rank 125th in EPA per play and 124th in success rate on that side of the ball and are particularly inept in the secondary, ranking 127th in passing success rate. Fifita’s game is to dink-and-dunk all day long, so this matchup should suit his fancy. The Wildcats rank fifth in passing success rate and the diminutive signal-caller is completing a whopping 76.2% of his passes with 14 touchdowns to just four interceptions. He has some extremely affordable and obvious stacking options.
Running back seems pretty simple to me this week and I’m going with Gordon/Hughes in almost every lineup. There are some other good pay-up options that I’ll talk about later and while those guys make sense, it’s hard for me to stray from this duo as it has a high floor and high ceiling and is a good look in both cash and GPPs. Gordon needs no introduction at this point — he’s the most productive back in the country and is averaging 46.3 DK PPG across his last four outings. I’ve been talking about how terrible UCF’s rush defense (130th in rushing success rate, 127th in line yards, 130th in front seven havoc) is for a while so this really is a perfect marriage. My other back is Hughes, who has been a lock for high volume (five straight games with 20+ carries) and gets the advantage of running behind a Tulane OL (13th in stuff rate) that overpowers most AAC teams. Tulsa ranks 98th in EPA per rush and 99th in rushing explosiveness and just allowed 52 first-half points to SMU two weeks ago. The Golden Hurricane are somehow even worse against the pass than the rush, but Tulane should have a big lead in this one which should mean heavy volume again for Hughes against a defense that has surrendered 20 rushing TDs this year, including 11 over the last three games.
There are a lot of affordable WRs that I’ll touch on, but Victor grades out as the top price-per-point play. He gets elite volume (11+ targets in each of his last three games with an average of 14.7) and this is as soft of a matchup as possible against a joke of a Cal defense, so he’s a near-lock for cash and a great GPP play as well. His only concern is health as he’s missed time this year with various injuries and was knocked out of last week’s game. He was practicing this week and I assume he’s good to go, which means he’s a terrific play against a Golden Bears defense that ranks 128th in EPA per pass and 131st in passing success rate. They’ve allowed 50 points in four separate games this season and were without their two best players last week when they gave up 63 points to the Ducks and 12-180-2 to Tez Johnson, who lines up in the slot just like Victor.
Priority Plays
QB Behren Morton, Texas Tech – $7,100
I’m playing Morton in most lineups but don’t consider him as good of a play as Fifita so relegated him to “priority play” territory. Morton was dealing with a grade-3 sprain in his AC joint and didn’t throw at all in practice while operating as a wild cat quarterback for most of the year. He finally resumed throwing in practice (!!!) before last week’s TCU game and naturally had by far his most productive outing through the air, tossing for 282 yards and two scores. He’s a non-zero rusher who has a rushing TD in three straight games and plays in an uptempo Kittley system, and he has a good price against a soft Kansas defense that ranks 122nd in passing success rate. The assumption in playing Morton is that the Red Raiders’ lack of QB success this system has partly to do with bad injury luck. I think that’s obviously the case as Shough fractured his leg, Morton has tried to play QB without the ability to throw the ball, and a true freshman was forced into action in two games while tossing three times as many picks and touchdowns. Of course, there’s always the chance that TTU just stinks and won’t figure it out this year, but I’m willing to pay to find out.
RB Djouvensky Schlenbaker, Washington State – $3,000
Schlenbaker is the obvious pay-down punt this week — and not just because he has an awesome name and an even better backstory. He’s the last man standing in an RB room where RB1 Nakia Watson can barely play and logged only two carries last week, RB2 Jaylen Jenkins was dismissed from the team, and backup Dylan Paine has been out multiple weeks. Schlenbaker led the way with 13 carries against Stanford and will likely get the most work again this week even if Watson and Paine suit up, which is uncertain. That doesn’t guarantee him success as Wazzu has been terrible rushing the ball and the OL stinks (130th in line yards, 128th in stuff rate). Still, this is an extremely favorable matchup against a Cal defense that ranks 126th in EPA per play and 127th in success rate. Cal was without both starting linebackers last week and those are probably the two best players on defense, so min-priced Schlenbaker looks like a fine play this week.
WR Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona – $6,300
McMillan makes for an easy stacking option with Fifita and it’s kind of cute because they were high school teammates. He’s one of the best WRs in the country and gets a soft matchup against Colorado. There’s always the uncertainty of not knowing how much Hunter will be in coverage against T-Mac, but opposing WRs have burned Colorado all year long and I see no reason why that’d stop in Week 11 with a surging Wildcats team visiting Boulder. He’s at least $1,000 too cheap and has 15+ DK points in seven of his nine games this season which makes him a good look in all formats. I still prefer him in GPPs as he’ll probably need a touchdown or two to be in takedown lineups.
WR Eric Singleton Jr., GaTech – $4,700
Singleton is simply too cheap here and makes sense in all formats. He has 15+ DK points in six of eight games and looks nothing like a true freshman on the field. The Yellow Jackets spread the ball around a bit but Singleton has solid volume with 8+ targets in four games this season. The difficulty here is that he faces a very good Clemson defense … but Tech has been good throwing it around this season (23rd in EPA per pass, seventh in passing explosiveness) so it’s be surprising if this productive offense stops completely dead in its tracks.
WR Travis Hunter, Colorado – $6,400
Hunter is averaging 21.1 DK points across the five games where he’s been healthy (excluding the Colorado State game where he was sent to the hospital) this season and has 70+ receiving yards in four of those games. Colorado is expected to be playing from behind in this contest and Hunter is averaging 10.4 targets per game so the volume should be there and the talent clearly will be as well. He faces an Arizona team that actually has a defense this year but still checks in at just 97th in success rate. The worry of a Hunte dud is if the Buffaloes are just completely overwhelmed up front a la Oregon and UCLA. That could certainly be the case and is a valid concern — Colorado can’t block and the Wildcats’ strength defensively is up front, where they rank 28th in front seven havoc and 28th in stuff rate. Still, I’m not sure they’re at the level of Oregon and they certainly aren’t at UCLA’s, so there’s a chance Colorado’s offense does some things this week. If they do, Hunter has a very good chance of smashing. GPPs only.
Secondary Plays
QB Michael Pratt, Tulane – $8,200
QB John Rhys Plumlee, UCF – $7,500
QB Cameron Ward, Washington State – $8,200
QB Jordan Travis, Florida State – $9,500
QB Jason Bean, Kansas – $7,400
QB Alan Bowman, Oklahoma State – $6,900
Here are the other QBs I’m considering, all lumped together.
Pratt looks great in all formats but I usually only consider him in GPPs as you never really know where the production in this offense will come from (other than the RB, who gets 20+ touches every game … hence the Hughes core play). Tulsa stinks defensively and has been roasted through the air repeatedly (130th in EPA per pass), and Pratt used his legs a fair amount.
Plumlee hasn’t been able to use his legs this year as he plays with a massive knee brace on. I didn’t get to watch last week’s game in full as I was out of town, but he looked far less than 100% the last two weeks. Still, he’s been moderately productive anyway and has a rushing TD in three straight games, and this game is supposed to shoot out. He makes a ton of sense as a Gordon comeback against a stinky Pokes defense that ranks 100th in EPA per play and 127th in success rate. I went back and watched some of last week’s games and he looked a little bit better to me and was more willing to take off.
Cam Ward has been impossible to figure out. He’s had some blow-up weeks and some absolute stinkers and it’s hard to tell what’s coming next as he’s been a turd at times against both bad and good defenses. Not much rhyme or reason in my opinion, although there’s naturally a concern in that his OL can’t block — but that shouldn’t be a huge problem against Cal, who ranks 123th in front seven havoc. He has 40 DK point upside written all over him in a very, very favorable matchup and is a fine GPP play but I wouldn’t consider him in cash. I’ve mostly lost faith in this offense for now so won’t have a ton of Ward ownership, but the case is compelling. I prefer to target Victor and Schlenbaker in most lineups but wouldn’t talk anyone off a Ward Hail Mary throw.
Travis, Bean, and Bowman all seem viable on this slate. It’s not a tremendous QB slate in my opinion and these guys could all have productive outings, which means they make the cut for this article.
RB Tahj Brooks, Texas Tech – $7,700
RB Jayden Ott, Cal – $7,500
RB Jonah Coleman, Arizona – $4,300
RB Jaylen Wright, Tennessee – $5,400
RB Cody Schrader, Mizzou – $6,000
RB Devin Neal, Kansas – $7,100
RB Mark Fletcher, Miami – $6,400
RB Phil Mafah, Clemson – $5,700
The running back room is supremely strong this week. While I’m honed in on Gordon and Hughes, there admittedly isn’t a lot separating them from other players on this list. I wouldn’t talk anyone off the top three especially. Brooks has 20+ DK points in five straight games and 31 carries in each of his last two, so he should eat against Kansas. Ott has been a monster for me this season and faces a Wazzu defense that’s weaknesses lie up front. Coleman is only $4,300 but has two 25+ DK point outings in his last four games and should be lead back with Wiley still injured and less than 100% even if he plays.
Wright has 113+ rushing yards in four of his last five games and a cheap price tag. I think I’d just prefer to get down to Coleman in that range, or up to Hughes, however, as Tennessee rotates its backs and I respect Mizzou’s defense enough to not be sure if Wright repeats his success. He had 136 yards against a tough Bama front but just 22 yards against Bama the next week, so results are TBD regarding his performance against good defenses. The other back in that game, Schrader, should be popular as he just put up 24.6 DK points against UGA and has 20+ carries in three straight games. Tennessee is really good up front (fifth in line yards, eight in power success rate, 13th in front seven havoc) so I don’t love this matchup. Tennessee is happy to limit down-to-down effectiveness (sixth in rushing success rate) while risking big plays (94th in rushing success rate), so there’s a chance Schrader hits some big ones. That’s not really his game, though (Mizzou 90th in rushing explosiveness) and I still don’t trust the OL (95th in line yards, 127th in stuff rate).
Neal is fine in GPPs as the leader of a potent offense. Fletcher had 23-115-0 against a decent NC State front and could get a big workload against a sus Florida State rush defense. The true freshman could be leaned on heavily again this week with uncertainty in the QB room, so he’s an interesting GPP leverage play. Mafah should be popular this week after back-to-back big games and facing a soft Ga Tech defense that ranks 114th in EPA per rush, 119th in rushing success rate, and 121st in line yards. I get the love but I’m not a Mafah guy and the waters are muddied with Shipley’s expected return to the field.
WR Ja’Lynn Polk, Washington – $8,100
WR Coy Eakin, Texas Tech – $3,800
WR Rashod Owens, Oklahoma State – $5,100 or WR Brennan Presley $5,800 or WR Leon Johnson III $4,900
WR Javon Baker, UCF – $5,900
WR Jacob Cowing, Arizona – $6,700
WR Lawrence Keys III, Tulane – $6,200
Polk has been a monster this season and the way to attack Utah’s defense is at the corners. He’s expensive but there aren’t many appealing pay-up WRs and a ton of affordable options elsewhere, so he’s viable and I doubt he picks up much ownership.
Eakin makes sense solo or as a Morton stack as he’s stepped up for a TTU receiving room that hasn’t done much at all this year. That could change with Morton’s return to health and Eakin has two good games in his last three (5-102-0 on 7 targets against KSU, 8-78-0 on 8 targets against TCU). He’s far too cheap, so he could help you eke out a takedown. I’d say he’s better in cash formats because that’s what his profile indicates, but I have given up pretending I can accurately predict what happens to TTU pass catchers as there’s a ton of randomness from week to week.
I’m not quite sure what to do with Oklahoma State WRs … so I probably will avoid the situation entirely in most lineups. UCF has the best passing D in the Big 12 by some surface-level stats and their rush D stinks, so there’s no reason that Gordon shouldn’t be the focal point. Oklahoma State likes to keep teams honest, however, and their three WRs have been good lately. The room has been so injured that all the reps are these guys for now, although Gundy doesn’t provide any injury updates so we won’t know if that’ll be the case in Week 11. For now, we have no reason to expect changes, and that means all three are viable. Presley is the safest so makes a lot of sense in cash, but I still don’t love him there as he might need a TD to pay off. Owens is my favorite in GPPs as he has two blow-up games recently (23.2 DK points against KU, 26.6 DK points against OU) and has the highest target share on the team since earning a full-time role. Johnson is the cheapest and has 19 targets in the two games he’s started while being productive.
Baker has been good this season (15.2 DK PPG) and is a good player. This could be a perfect matchup in that Oklahoma State gives up way too many big plays through the air (124th in passing explosiveness) whereas UCF has consistently hit chunk plays (fifth in passing explosiveness) with Baker being a big part of that picture. The game script is pretty obvious to see with Gordon rushing for 30-180-4 and UCF hitting a few big plays through the air in a close game. Just because it’s an obvious game script doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed to happen, and I consider that a GPP look.
Cowing has more targets than any WR on the slate and faces a terrible Colorado defense, so of course he’s viable. I doubt he picks up much ownership as his teammate T-Mac is cheaper and everyone will gravitate toward him instead. Both are viable as I prefer T-Mac but so does everyone else, so Cowing could have a realistic chance at a 30-point, affordable, leverage game. You can also double stack them with Fifita if you’re a nut.
I never play Tulane WRs but Keys has been good and could be in winning lineups if he catches two TDs against this terrible Tulsa secondary.
