Howdy football fans, it’s time for Week 9. This main slate is more appealing than usually because there’s only one Big Ten game on the board, which is great news. Let’s dive into this week’s matchups and find the top plays..
Odds Board
USC (-10.5) @ California | Over/Under 67
Oklahoma (-9) @ Kansas | Over/Under 65
Houston (+17.5) @ Kansas State | Over/Under 58
WVU (+7) @ UCF | Over/Under 58
South Carolina @ Texas A&M | Over/Under 54
Florida State (-20.5) @ Wake Forest | Over/Under 51
BYU (+18.5) @ Texas | Over/Under 50
Oregon (-6.5) @ Utah | Over/Under 48
Georgia (-14.5) | Over/Under 47
Indiana (+32) @ Penn State | Over/Under 46
Duke (+4.5) @ Louisville | Over/Under 46
Pitt (+20.5) @ Notre Dame | Over/Under 44.5
This slate seems a bit more well-balanced total-wise as there are two games in the mid-60s, five in the 50s, and five in the 40s. There are a fair amount of games that are either “stay aways” are one-off country, which makes it a bit easier to construct lineups in my opinion. If you have a game environment that you like, taking a stand here with one of these games could be enough leverage that you need instead of getting crazy in tournaments. In cash, the pricing is pretty affordable on most games and construction isn’t as difficult as it is some weeks in my opinion.
Core Plays
RB RJ Harvey, UCF – $6,200
WR Jamari Thrash, Louisville – $6,100
It’s a very weak core this week. There are a ton of plays in the $6k range at both RB and WR who look fine and that I’ll write up in this article, but few stand out more than others. As for QB, there are plenty of options but none that are “must plays”. With that being the case, I’m simply listing my favorite plays at RB and WR as that’s a good starting place.
Thrash’s price stands out the most of any player on this slate and he’d be the closest thing to a “must play” if we had assurance that he was 100% healthy. He played the Pitt game with a heavily bandaged wrist and there were rumours circulating that he’d miss that contest. Well, he played and still posted 9-120-0, and he’s coming off a bye week so he has extra time to heal up for this contest. His coach said he’s good to go this week, so I’m firing him up in plenty of lineups. I’ve pointed out countless times that the DraftKings algorithm refuses to acknowledge the existence of Jeff Brohm or his assets, which goes to explain why we have the slate’s second-most productive WR priced at its WR16. Tough matchup (Duke is 8th in EPA per pass, 3rd in passing explosiveness) and injury concern makes Thrash less of a slam dunk than he’d initially appear but he’s still fine in all formats as a cheap Brohm WR1.
Harvey has been really good for UCF this year, averaging 20.2 DK PPG as the focal point of the offense. You can play him with JRP or solo, and it’s a weird stack to make so I’m assuming Harvey is better as a solo piece in most formats but you can get leverage with an unconventional two-man stack in GPPs. If JRP was obviously at 100% running the ball, I could make a case for fading Harvey as I think that significantly impacts his usage as JRP has been the leading rusher for every team for whom he’s been QB, but the man had -4 rushing yards last week and therefore my fears on that front have been diminished. WVU’s defense has been fine but I’ve been pointing out all year that I don’t trust them and we’ve finally seen the cracks start to show as they’ve been blitzed for 41 points by Houston and 48 points by Oklahoma State across the last two games. WVU’s defensive starters are fine but the depth stinks, so UCF would be wise to operate at a fast tempo and rack up a bunch of plays to tire them out. Harvey
Priority Plays
QB John Rhys Plumlee, UCF – $7,200
JRP looks great at QB but is similar to Thrash in that he’s supposedly healthy but I have my reservations still. He needs his legs to be at his best, and I’m still not sure he’s at 100% after returning last week and rushing just nine times for -4 yards and a touchdown. Still, he managed 23.5 DK points against a pretty good Oklahoma defense and should have a productive outing here against a WVU team that has some very bad vibes behind it heading into this road game and is beatable in all areas. He’s way too cheap and opens up a lot in your lineup elsewhere.
RB Nicholas Singleton, Penn State – $6,300
Singleton is one of my favorite RB for GPPs as of this Friday morning. Penn State should take some frustration out here against a bad Indiana defense ranking 86th in EPA per rush and 124th in rushing success rate. The Hoosiers get pushed around up front (111th in line yards, 110th in stuff rate) so one would think this is a boom game for Singleton. He’s been disappointing so far this season but is playing at home against an overmatched team that they’re supposed to dominate. GPPs only. There are a ton of good RBs to choose from this week and Singleton is certainly one of them.
RB DJ Giddens, Kansas State – $6,500
Giddens looks great this week with a soft matchup against Houston (118th in EPA per rush, 108th in rushing explosiveness). There’s a bit of volatility here as Giddens doesn’t get the same usage as other RBs in this price range, handling just 21 carries in his last two games and he shares work with Treshaun Ward ($5,800) and two rushing QBs. Still, he’s been this team’s best skill position player and will be running behind an OL that should maul the Cougars, so he should have a productive day at the office and could go under the radar a bit ownership-wise in GPPs if folks are scared away by the usage. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t crack 18 DK points and has the upside for another 30+ DK points this week.
WR Sam Brown, Houston – $6,300
I don’t like the WRs this weak. My favorite one is a guy with a busted wrist playing against a secondary that has been elite. I’m not even sure who my second favorite WR is yet. Brown makes a strong case as DK refuses to raise his price and he’s been a target hog for a Dana offense that always has productive wideouts. He’s averaging 17.7 DK PPG and has the second-most targets (59) on the slate. He’s been Houston’s most-targetted and most productive WR, averaging 2.15 yards per route run compared to 1.75 for Golden and 2.01 for Manjack. Kansas State’s defense is good, but it’s weird — the secondary was terrible to start the year but has been better lately and ranks 71st in passing success rate. The rushing defense (16th in EPA per rush, 19th in rushing success rate) has been borderline elite all year and I don’t expect the Cougars (119th in EPA per rush) to be able to gain much ground there, so they should throw the ball plenty and that makes their receiving targets fine in all formats and Brown is the best of them and is priced far too low.
Secondary Plays
QB Garrett Greene, WVU – $8,100
I expect Greene to be very popular this week and think he’s fine in all formats. WVU doesn’t really throw the ball but they rank 6th in rush rate and Greene is a huge part of that attack, toting the ball 40 times across his last three games while accumulating 244 rushing yards and four touchdowns. UCF is a joke defensively against the rush, ranking 115th in EPA per rush and 128th in rushing success rate. They get blown off the ball at the line of scrimmage, ranking 127th in line yards and 132nd in front seven havoc. Greene is my favorite play on WVU this week and looks good in all formats.
QB Jason Bean, Kansas – $6,700
We just saw a similar QB to Bean in JRP have a decent outing against this Oklahoma defense while not exactly setting the world on fire. I think a similar outcome could be expected from Bean here and he may have a higher ceiling than most people realize. Oklahoma’s defense has been good this year, I’ll give Venables that — but the expectation seems to be that they are elite. I won’t give them that. Kansas offense, on the other hand, is elite the Jayhawks should be more aggressive now with Bean the full-time starter so I wouldn’t be surprised if he see him take a fair amount of deep shots to keep the Sooners honest. I repeat this every week but Bean is one of the fastest humans in college football and is always a threat for a long TD run.
QB Maalik Murphy, Texas – $7,000
It’s really difficult to know what to expect from Murphy here. If you’ve been reading/listening to my work since last year, you probably know what I think of Quinn Ewers. I’ll suffice it to say I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if this offense improves while he’s out, and Murphy has more rushing upside than Ewers yet is prices a lot cheaper here at home against a mid BYU defense that has a burnable secondary (83rd in EPA per pass, 112th in passing success rate). I’m becoming more bullish on Murphy as I’m typing this — aroused even. I’ll spare you the details about that situation and will qualify my excitement by saying BYU’s defense front stinks (115th in stuff rate, 128th in front seven havoc) and it wouldn’t be surprising if Texas just runs the ball bunch to grab an easy win and go home. We also haven’t seen Murphy much in live-action, so maybe he’s just a Joe Milton type who has a strong arm but stinks at football. We don’t know until we see him but Murphy looks pretty talented to me and is a powerful rusher with a cannon for an arm. I won’t start the whole “do they let him ball out to build confidence because Ewers might be out a few weeks, or do they not let him show much on tape before next week’s showdown with Kansas State” conversation because I don’t have a strong opinion either way other than Sark’s offense shouldn’t change much regardless of who is under center so I don’t see the benefit of holding Murphy back.
QB Donovan Smith, Houston – $7,900
He isn’t a very good player but he’ll throw a lot and is always a threat to stumble into a rushing TD or two. That makes him viable and he has clear stacking options. I’m expecting Houston’s defense to get burned again in this spot so there’s a chance the offense plays keep-up and has some nice performances through the air.
RB Jonathan Brooks, Texas – $7,500
RB Jaydn Ott, Cal – $7,700
Brooks looks good again this week as he’s been a monster this season and will be playing at home against an overmatchedm BYU defensive front. He’s especially appealing in cash after posting at least 19.4 DK points in five straight games.
Ott is an OK look in GPPs considering he’s playing a USC team that is coached by Lincoln Riley — a coach who finds defense and special teams an inconvenience to his everyday life. I’m confused by Cal’s offensive line metrics — they grade out as elite in the per-play data (3rd in EPA per play, 5th in both stuff rate and power success rate) but PFF hates them (97th in run-blocking grade at 56.8). I suppose they’re probably not elite, but they have been good and much better than I expected going into the year. Ott is essentially this team’s entire offense and there’s a third-string, redshirt freshman starting at QB so it wouldn’t be surprising if Ott gets 30 opportunities here at home as his team’s best bet for pulling of this upset. I still won’t have many shares as he’s been banged up a few times this season and I question whether or not he’s at 100% considering he has just 21 carries across his last two games. In one of those games he left early due to injury and in the other his team got nothing going against a tough Utah defense that has no similarities to USC. The Trojans will be without Bear Alexander, probably their best defender and most important player in the front seven, for the first half after he was hit with a second-half targeting penalty last week. I like Ott the more I think about him but he’s very pricey and it’s hard for me to find the salary.
RB Kaytron Allen, Penn State – $5,900
RB Treshaun Ward, Kansas State – $5,800
Both are fine this week. Allen and Ward are both pivots off their better teammates (Singleton, Giddens). Ward hasn’t had a blowup game yet this year while Giddens has had two, but one of DJ’s monster games came while Ward was out. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ward gets his first 20 DK point showing this week against a bad Houston defense. He’s gotten 10 more rushing attempts than Giddens over the last two games so the staff clearly wants to get him the ball, and he’s a well-rounded back with a good receiving skill set. I almost never play Allen but Indiana sucks so Allen could get 3 TDs so if a GPP dart throw.
RB Gavin Sawchuk, Oklahoma – $4,400
RB Tawee Walker, Oklahoma – $5,100
Sawchuk is also a part of a messy backfield and it’s unclear how much work he’s going to get. Oklahoma’s running game hasn’t been very good and they’ve had a new leading rusher seemingly every week. It was Sawchuk’s turn last week as he went for 10-63-1 against UCF, but I don’t find that performance very encouraging considering he made a ton of errors early in the game and had to salvage his day with a late TD. That was against UCF, a defense surrendering 240 rushing YPG against non-Kent State and non-FCS opponents, so I’m not ready to say Sawchuk is poised to grab the reigns as this team’s lead back. Tawee Walker ($5,100) was suspended last week but is back in action and could be the lead dog again — it’s very murky and I don’t have much clever insight because it’s a guessing game at this point. Kansas is bad against the rush (121st in EPA per rush, 126th in rushing explosiveness) so either Sawchuk or Walker looks fine as a cheap lineup filler, but it’s hard to have a ton of confidence in which one will be more productive. Walker has been better overall this season and was utilized heavily in the team’s biggest game of the year in the Red River Rivalry, but he also might be in the doghouse and losing momentum after last week’s suspension.
RB CJ Donaldson, WVU – $6,100
Everything I said about UCF’s defense in Greene’s writeup applies here to Donaldson, who has been bad this season (3.9 yards per rush, 14 DK PPG) but nonetheless must be in consideration in this dream matchup. I’d prefer to get to Greene but also feel like CJ will be underowned despite playing a middle school defensive front. I find ownership in CFB DFS to be fickle enough that I’m not confident in CJ enough to take a stand on him here (what if he is owned and I avoided a smash play to try to get cute?) but still think he’s fine in all formats and especially prefer him in GPPs.
WR Nic Anderson, Oklahoma – $5,800
Anderson looks terrific in GPPs as he simply hasn’t been able to stop scoring touchdowns this season, finding paydirt every other time he’s touched the ball (8 TDs on 16 receptions). His volume ramped up last week in the first game in which the Sooners were without Andrel Anthony as Anderson had 9 targets. I’m not sure that’s going to continue, but he’s now playing a full-time role for a high-powered offense, has elite metrics (3.10 yards per route run, 17.8 aDOT), and faces a mid Kansas defense in Week 9.
WR Xavier Legette, South Carolina – $6,600
Legette would be a very strong play for me … if I had confidence that he was going to suit up. It sounds to me like he was in concussion protocol as he didn’t travel with the team on the team after the game, and Beamer simply called him questionable this week. Both Juice Wells and Ahmarean Brown remain out this week so Legette should have the room all to his own if he does play against this burnable A&M secondary. USCe’s OL should be badly outmatched, however, as they rank 125th in front seven havoc while A&M is second in that metric defensively. Still, Legette has double-digit DK points in every game that he’s played from start to finish and averages an absurd 3.32 yards per route run with a strong 84.1 PFF receiving grade.
WR Xavier Worthy, Texas – $6,900
Worthy is fine every week and this is no exception. Maybe Murphy can actually drop it in the bucket on a few deep balls? Ewers did one last week and that’s why Worthy topped 20 DK points.
WR Matthew Golden, Houston – $6,500
WR Jospeh Manjack, Houston – $5,700
WR Dalton Carnes, Houston – $3,500
Both of the secondary Houston WRs are fine this week, per usual. Golden is a red zone threat every week and has the fourth-most targets (57) of any WR on the slate. Manjack is a folk hero and one of the coolest players in the sport right now but is questionable to play after leaving the Texas game with a shoulder injury. If we get news that Manjack is out before kickoff time, Dalton Carnes becomes arguably the top pay-down option on the slate after going 5-68-0 last week. There’s enough volume in this passing attack to keep multiple people fed.
Others in my initial lineups player pool:
QB Dillon Gabriel, Oklahoma – $9,400
QB Jordan Travis, FSU – $9,200
QB Fernando Mendoza, Cal – $5,800
RB Sione Vaki, Utah – $5,000
RB Demond Claiborne, Wake – $4,800
RB CJ Baxter, Texas – $4,200
WR Evan Stewart, Texas A&M – $5,800
WR Chase Roberts, BYU – $5,100
WR Bub Means, Pitt – $4,800
WR Jayce Brown, Kansas State – $3,900
WR Mason Fairchild, Kansas – $4,500
WR Kody Epps, BYU – $4,000
WR Terrance Ferguson, Oregon – $3,900
