Let’s dive into this week’s offerings for Saturday’s main slate on DraftKings. Here are my top plays at each position.
Odds Board
UCLA (+7) @ USC | Over/Under 65.5
Oklahoma State (-7) @ Houston | Over/Under 60
Georgia (-10.5) @ Tennessee | Over/Under 59.5
North Carolina (+7) @ Clemson | Over/Under 58
Oklahoma (-24) @ BYU | Over/Under 57
App State (+9) @ JMU | Over/Under 55
Oregon (-23.5) @ Arizona State | Over/Under 54.5
Michigan (-19) @ Maryland | Over/Under 50
Wake Forest (+24.5) @ Notre Dame | Over/Under 46.5
Louisville (+1) @ Miami | Over/Under 46
Utah (+1) @ Arizona | Over/Under 45
Rutgers (+20.5) @ Penn State | Over/Under 41
Core Plays
Tricked you — there are no core plays!
This is a tough slate in which there aren’t a ton of shootouts expected and the pricing is pretty tight. There also seem to be fewer terrible defenses than usual, so there aren’t as many obvious smash spots. That makes this a GPP kind of slate in my opinion as there’s more volatility with less sure-seeming plays. Alas, we’ll dive in and find some of the top options with a bountiful group of priority plays.
Priority Plays
QB Jordan McCloud, JMU – $8,300
I have a lot of bias here since he earned me a big takedown this season, but I can confidently declare that Jordan McCloud is the greatest quarterback to ever walk this fine Earth. He’s not as obvious of a play as he was two weeks ago when he dropped a 55.68 burger on George State, but he still looks really good. He has at least 33.9 DK points in three straight games and this offense has really hit its next level. I’ve pointed out for a while now that JMU runs the ball more than they should — they aren’t good at it, but they’re really good at passing. They’ve wisely heeded my advice (tone!) and have thrown the ball 40, 36, and 37 times across their last three games. The question is whether or not that continues against an App State D that sucks against the run (120th in EPA per rush, 109th in rushing explosiveness) but is aight against the pass (48th in EPA per pass). There’s more uncertainty here than initially meets the eye, but he’s been so good that I’ll likely play him anyway, especially since I’m playing at least one of his pass catchers in almost every lineup.
QB Dillon Gabriel. Oklahoma – $9,800
Gabriel is fresh off a shellacking of WVU in which he accumulated a jaw-dropping 62.92 DK points. Naturally, he looks enticing here against a bad BYU defense (96th in EPA per play, 99th in success rate). The Cougars are bad both against the pass (114th in passing success rate) and the run (107th in EPA per rush) which is notable since Gabriel is a dual-threat who needs to use his legs to be in the optimal lineup. I’ve mostly recommended playing Gabriel naked (don’t get excited) this year and that’s paid off for the most part, but it does seem odd to pay up so much for a QB and not use one of his stacking options. Their WRs have mostly been a trick this season, but there may be a treat this weak whom we’ll talk about later on in our program.
QB Joey Aguilar, App State – $7,500
Aguilar looks enticing, especially if you’re game-stacking. He has 22+ DK points in six straight games so is a good cash option. It’s an odd matchup because JMU is really good but they’re much better against the rush (first nationally in rushing success rate defensively) than the pass (42nd in EPA per pass, 119th in passing explosiveness). Aguilar looks very intriguing in all formats.
RB Gavin Sawchuk, Oklahoma – $5,500
Oklahoma RBs have also been mostly a trick this season, but Sawchuk seems to have grabbed the RB1 role for now and that makes him an easy target this week at a reduced price against a bad defense. He looks back up to speed after being slow and bad in his recovery from injury early in the year and now has back-to-back 100-yards games while averaging 19.05 DK points. BYU ranks 130th in PFF’s rush defense grade and 123rd in tackling, which is absolutely brutal. You can play Sawchuk with Gabriel (totally viable and my preferred method — would be super cool if they linked up for a passing TD!) or naked. Both are reasonable and fine in all formats. He’ll be chalk, but it’s warranted.
RB Audric Estime, ND – $8,000
RB Bucky Irving, Oregon – $7,600
RB Ollie Gordon II, OkSt – $8,800
RB Blake Corum, Michigan – $8,400
This is going to look a little bit ridiculous listing so many (expensive!) RBs together, but I’ve never been afraid of looking silly and in fact have adopted such as my preferred fashion statement. The point here is that I’m prioritizing playing an elite RB on this slate — I don’t have a huge preference for who, but in most lineups, I’ll have one of these esteemed (Estime’d?) gentlemen eating into my payroll. I’ve attempted to list them in order of preference, but it’s splitting hairs.
ND is a four-score favorite at home against a Wake team that simply doesn’t believe in fielding an offense in 2023. After so many years of success on that side of the ball, Clawson has decided to give his team a break in 2023 and save all the points for future seasons. What I’m saying here is that Wake isn’t expected to put up much resistance or a fight, so Estime should have a very positive game script. The hesitancy is that Wake’s actually been solid defensively, especially up front (17th in front seven havoc, eighth in power success rate) while shutting down the run (26th in EPA per rush, 27th in rushing explosiveness). Still, this is ND vs. Wake Forest we’re talking about here and the Deacs have regressed to allow 447 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs across their last two games. Estime has been consistent with at least 20 DK points in every game where he hasn’t been facing an elite defense (twice) so he’s fine in cash or GPPs.
Bucky can go on 2023 CFB Mount Everest right next to McClous. He’s the best RB I’ve ever seen if we’re continuing with the hyperbolic grandiose. He’s as shifty as Lamar Jackson yet consistently runs over and through defenders mistaking him for some slippery fella. He’s like the David Montgomery running back Frankenstein meme except factual this time. Anyway, he’s good at football and Oregon is a huge favorite over an ASU team that actually has played pretty good D for much of the year (5.2 YPP @ Washington, 4.1 YPP vs. Colorado, 4.8 YPP vs. Oklahoma State) but recently surrendered 55 points to a baaaad Utah offense.
Ollie went from Heisman dark horse to Khartoum look-a-like with an absolute clunker against one of the worst rush defenses in the nation. He naturally was rewarded for his stunt-double bravery with a high pay raise, carrying a massive $8,800 salary in Week 12. This is a very favorable matchup against an already terrible Houston defense (126th in success rate, 113th in EPA per rush) that is dealing with injuries and this team might’ve quit on the season. Uncle Dana is probably out of the door if they don’t win out to make a bowl so maybe unc will have his squad surprisingly fired up, but I’d be more inclined to bet on an embarrassment at the hands of Ollie Oxygen-Free (get it — he takes your breath away).
Corum is still Corum and Michigan is still Michigan, but he’s priced to the Heavens as always.
WR Elijah Sarratt, JMU – $5,500
If I had a core this week it would be only Sawchuk and Sarratt. He hasn’t had the blow-up games of his similarly-priced teammate (more on him later), but he’s been very consistent and seems like a near-lock in all formats at this absurd price. He’s seen at least nine targets in four straight games and is coming off a 13-170-0 beauty against UConn. His 2.95 yards per route run is pristine and his 85.3 receiving grade is third-best on the slate. Play him with McCloud. Play him naked. Play him in cash. Play him in GPPs. Play him until the ATM don’t pay no mo.
WR Logan Loya, UCLA – $4,500
Yeesh. Logan Loya? It seems like a weird play, but he’s been UCLA’s WR1 with 5+ targets in seven straight games and 8+ targets in five of those games. He only had 5 targets and 3-39-1 receiving a week ago but that was with the run-first Schlee under center. Garbers is back at QB this week in all likelihood and that sets up Loya well in a soft matchup against a terrible USC defense that has surrendered 32+ points in 7 straight games and 41+ in five of those.
WR Leon Johnson III, OkSt – $4,800
This WR room sure has been difficult to figure out, but Johnson is no longer someone to ignore after playing a full-time role and putting forth at least 12 DK points in three straight games. It’s a good matchup against a bad Houston defense that checks in at 128th in passing success rate. His teammates Rashod Ownes ($5,600) and Brennan Presley ($5,500) are also viable. Since these three have become the top wideouts for Oklahoma State, over the last three games Owens has 33 targets, Johnson 30, and Presly 24. Owens and Johnson’s production has been similar but Johnson is cheaper.
WR Reggie Brown, JMU – $5,600
Brown has had some monster games this season and recently has 44.2, 38.2, and 27.6 DK point games on his ledger to surround one dud (2 DK points). He has flop potential with single-digit DK points in five games but also has a very high ceiling. With a high 14.2 aDOT, it makes sense that he’s a bit volatile as he needs some downfield shots to hit value, but his prolific 3.18 yards per route run is encouraging that success will continue.
WR Drake Stoops, Oklahoma – $6,800
It feels insane that Stoops is priced this high, but that’s what happens when you post 12-134-1 and then 10-164-3 in back-to-back games. This team has been waiting for a volume WR1 and it looks like Stoops is the surprise answer. He only has single-digit DK points in two games this year, making him a very strong look in cash especially. Across his last two games, he has been peppered with 27 targets and volume is king in fantasy, so I suppose we all must bow to King Drake Stoops.
WR Samuel Brown, UH – $6,400
WR Jospeh Manjack IV, UH – $5,600
Either of the top two Houston WRs look like good plays this week now that Matthew Golden is out for the year. This offense is pretty volatile but it’s also fantasy-friendly and this is projected to be a profitable game environment. It’s a good matchup against a burnable Oklahoma State secondary (116th in EPA per pass, 129th in passing explosiveness) and these fellas are both too cheap. I don’t have a big preference for one over the other. They can be played solo, single-stacked, or double-stacked with Smith.
Secondary Plays
QB Donovan Smith, Houston – $7,900
Smith isn’t a good QB but this is a fantasy-friendly system, he runs a bit, and he has a good matchup. That’s usually a recipe for fantasy success and his price is affordable. Smith has 30+ DK points in four games this season so he’s no stranger to big games. GPPs only.
QB Caleb Williams, USC – $10,900
QB Bo Nix, Oregon – $10,800
I won’t have a ton of these two QBs as they’re top-shelf options. Still, I could make a case for either of them as there aren’t a ton of enticing QBs, so you could go get a top option that you feel good about instead of paying $2.5k less for an unsure option. The pricing at RB and WR is cheap enough that it’s possible. That’s still not my preferred strategy as of Thursday morning, but it holds water. Williams is likely in his last collegiate game so it wouldn’t be surprising if he shows out here in a rivalry game where the other team has a head coach who is reportedly going to be fired after the game, so it wouldn’t be surprising at all if they check out and Williams goes off. I usually don’t factor narrative this much into my analysis and would generally point out that UCLA’s defense has been solid, but still … if Fifita can chuck it for 300 and 3 TDs against this D, Williams can go out in style for his likely finale. Nix has over 80 DK points in his last two games and gets a decent matchup so could also be optimal against an Az St defense that has been hot or cold, but any team that gives up 55 to Utah could give up 70 to Oregon.
QB Cade Klubnik, Clemson – $7,300
It doesn’t feel good, but QB is tough this week, Klubnik has been playing his best ball of the season (not saying much!), and gets a favorable matchup against a toastable UNC defense.
QB Ethan Garbers, UCLA – $6,400
QB Noah Fifita, Arizona – $6,800
Here are some other options if you’re looking to pay down. Garbers has been dreadful this season but gets an A+ matchup and has some very affordable stacking options. Not bad for a QB in a game with the highest total on the slate. Fifita is still pretty cheap and the way to attack Utah is through the air, so he could pay off as a low-owned contrarian GPP option.
RB TJ Harden, UCLA – $4,900
Harden’s an intriguing GPP option if looking to fade USC’s defense. He’s been splitting carries with Steele and is priced much lower, making him the interesting option at a discount considering he’s actually gotten more carries over the last three games. He hasn’t had a breakout game yet despite facing some bad defenses so there is definitely risk involved, but the upside is obvious against a defense that has surrendered 2,005 rushing yards and 20 rushing TDs this season. Steele is also viable at $6,400.
RB Ty Son Lawton, JMU – $4,600
App State is terrible against the run so Lawton could pay off here. He splits carries but has been JMU’s most effective back lately and could find the end zone a time or two while also chipping in some receptions. There’s an obvious caveat that he has just two games with double-digit DK points all year and his OL can’t block (124th in stuff rate, 130th in power success rate). App State ranks just 124th in defensive line yards so maybe that blocking hoopla evens out.
RB Cam Skettebo, ASU – $5,900
I don’t love the matchup this week but Skattebo has been a huge part of his team’s offense and his price isn’t bad for a guy averaging 18.6 DK PPG.
RB Phil Mafah, Clemson – $5,700
Mafah has been playing pretty well lately and this UNC defense is bad, so there’s a scenario where he pays off. I don’t love that he’s splitting time with Shipley and he didn’t pay off against a bad GaTech defense last week, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be optimal this week. The Tar Heels check in at just 103rd in EPA per rush and 91st in rushing success rate defensively.
WR Elijah Badger, ASU – $5,700
He’s too cheap as a 16 DK PPG guy with a game script where his team will likely be playing from behind. He’s been a bit erratic this year but part of that is to blame on QB play where the starter hasn’t been healthy for much of the year. Bourguet is the best QB for Badger’s fantasy value and it looks like we’ll probably have him under center again on Saturday. He went for 12-116-1 against a good UCLA defense last week. They did a bunch of weird swinging gate stuff and a fair amount of those receptions seemed to come on screens of off that, so this is a difficult projection to make, but Badget has mostly been someone I want to be overweight on this year.
WR Phoenix Sproles, JMU – $3,600
WR Dalton Carnes, UH – $3,400
These are my two favorite pay-down WRs so I’m listing them together. Sproles has been slightly more productive and may be a safer play, but he has a few goose eggs on his ledger so may not be as safe as recent scores indicate, but he still has 7+ DK points in five straight games. If he hasn’t had a ceiling game by now then one may never come as JMU has housed a few teams during that span. Carnes is now playing a near full-time role for UH with Golden out — he saw 33 pass snaps last week sans Golden and that was the third straight week he’d seen at least 30 pass snaps. He’s done nothing with those snaps lately, but he did have 5-68-0 in limited time against Texas in Week 8 and this is far from a difficult matchup in what’s projected to be a fantasy-friendly game environment. It’s not often that you see an Uncle Dana starting WR priced this low, is all I’m saying!
