We’re back with another 12-game main slate on DraftKings for Week 8 of the 2023 college football season. The season sure is flying by, isn’t it? All of the midweek slates have a way of numbing your brain into thinking it’s Groundhog Day, so main slates are always nice because they’re so much different to handicap than the shorter slates. Enjoy and good luck this weekend!
Odds Board
UCF @ Oklahoma (-18.5) | Over/Under 66
Mississippi State @ Arkansas (-6.5) | Over/Under 49
Penn State @ Ohio State (-4.5) | Over/Under 45.5
Memphis (-6.5) @ UAB | Over/Under 61.5
Air Force (-10.5) @ Navy | Over/Under 34.5
Western Michigan @ Ohio (-17) | Over/Under 53
Oklahoma State @ West Virginia (-3.5) | Over/Under 50.5
Washington State @ Oregon (-20) | Over/Under 62
Tennessee @ Alabama (-9) | Over/Under 48.5
Wisconsin (-2.5) @ Illinois | Over/Under 42
Minnesota @ Iowa (-3.5) | Over/Under 31.5
Texas (-23.5) @ Houston | Over/Under 61
A lot more offense on the slate this week as there are thankfully only a few atrocious Big Ten matchups. There are four games with totals in the 60s after there only being one on last week’s slate, and there are a few games (Iowa, Illinois, Navy, Ohio State) that are fairly clear “one-off or nothing” games.
Core Plays
QB Kurtis Rourke, Ohio – $5,700
RB Jonathon Brooks, Texas – $7,400
Small core this week, which will probably be common for main slates going forward unless there are a few clear and obvious options. DraftKings seems to have messed up the pricing for the Ohio vs. WMU game and that leaves us with some very cheap options — my favorite of which is Ohio QB Kurtis Rourke. This offense has underwhelmed on the year with Rourke at less than 100% but he’s rushed a touchdown in each of his last two games and seems to be back up to speed for the most part, which means he should be priced in the $7k range instead of in the basement at $5,700. He averaged 12.3 yards per attempt against Bowling Green and 9.4 yards per attempt against Kent State, so he seemed primed for a productive MAC portion of the schedule before a dud (4.4 yards per attempt, 11.16 DK points) last week against NIU. I’d imagine he gets back on the wagon here against a beatable WMU defense that ranks 102nd in EPA per pass, 94th in passing success rate, and 103rd in passing explosiveness. The Broncos are allowing 36.3 PPG and have given up multiple passing TDs to each of the last five teams they’ve played (including Iowa!). The only FBS team that didn’t toss multiple scores was Syracuse, who threw for 343 yards and a TD despite playing a fullback at quarterback.
Paying down for Rourke at one of the QB spots allows you to pay up for some of the studs — like Texas RB Jonathon Brooks. He’s a fantastic look in cash games (nearly a must-play) and I’m firing him up in all formats as he’s averaging a whopping 24.8 DK PPG and has rushed for 100+ yards in four straight games with 5 TDs in that span. This team is well-rested after a bye and should run all over a bad, poorly-coached Uncle Dana team that ranks 118th in EPA per play, 100th in success rate, and 111th in explosiveness defensively. They frankly just aren’t good at anything so Texas should have a very productive day offensively led by their star in Brooks, who is tied for ninth nationally in rushing yards. The Cougars have allowed 200+ rushing yards three times this year and have also allowed 3 rushing TDs on three separate occasions.
Priority Plays
KJ Jefferson, Arkansas – $7,600
I get it. KJ hasn’t done much of anything this year and Dan Enos broke the offense. The OL can’t block. Sam Pittman may be a dead man walking. Still … I kind of like Jefferson at home this week against a miserable Mississippi State defense (107th in EPA per play, 119th in success rate). The Bulldogsjust gave up 413 yards to a bad MAC school (WMU) and have surrendered at least 6.0 yards per play to every P5 opponent. They have one of the worst secondaries in the country (127th in EPA per pass, 130th in passing success rate), so KJ could have his biggest passing day of the season. He’s been running a lot (13+ carries in every game against an FBS team) and is due for some TDs as he has 0 against FBS teams. Rocket Sanders is out and may not return for a while, so it’s all on KJ.
QB Seth Henigan, Memphis – $8,300
UAB is a defense that you must fade. Trent Dilfer’s Blazers rank 123rd in EPA per play and 128th in success rate defensively while surrendering 36.6 PPG. The “issue” with playing Memphis against them this week is that UAB is much worse against the rush, surrendering 20 rushing TDs already this season while ranking 132nd in EPA per rush and 131st in rushing success rate, and Memphis is dealing was an injury to Blake Watson. It’s unclear if Watson will suit up — if he played at 100%, he’d be a lock in cash and a fine tournament play as well, but his status is up in the air as of the time of this writing. That makes Henigan an option for me personally even though I’m not in love with the fact that he always seems to hover in the mid-20s with his fantasy points and rarely has blow-up weeks — he’s been in the 24–27 DK points range in every single game this season. One would still expect Henigan to torch a UAB secondary that ranks 106th in PFF’s coverage grade.
RB Emmanuel Michel, Air Force – $5,800
Michel has taken over as the new workhorse for this Air Force attack that was happy to hand Brad Robert 40 carries per game over the last two years. That should be even more true now that the Falcons’ starting QB is out for a while after getting injured in their last game. Then again, there’s a chance Air Force’s offense is much less effective now considering Larrier has been terrific operating this offense and now the explosive passing element is hindered, allowing opponents to truly sell out to stop the triple option. Another qualifier is that fellow fullback Owen Burk, who began the season as the lead back, was much more effective last week while Michel had a costly fumble, so it’s possible the two share more of the workload going forward.
I initially considered making Michel a core play as he’ll be one of my most-played RBs, but I do have to point out that this is a game featuring two service academies and therefore possessions will be extremely limited and that’ll be exacerbated by the new clock rules. Still, Navy ranks 92nd in success rate on defenses and 73rd in EPA per rush, so the Falcons (first in rush rate, second in EPA per rush, third in line yards, first in stuff rate) should be able to move the ball and get into the end zone. Michel is averaging 24.3 carries per game since assuming his role in the offense in Week 3 and has 8 TD in that span. He obviously doesn’t catch passes and is TD-reliant, but I still think he’s fine in all formats and is massively underpriced.
RB Tawee Walker, Oklahoma – $5,400
Sheesh, what to do with Oklahoma this week. There are 5 players that I’d consider playing and I’m writing them all up except for Dillon Gabriel ($9,300), who I also think is completely viable if paying up at QB. I’m more interested in attacking the UCF defense with RBs in fantasy, however, as the Knights are absolutely atrocious defending the rush (125th in EPA per rush, 127th in rushing success rate). They just allowed 399 rushing yards and 5 TDs to Kansas and two games prior surrendered 281 rushing yards and 6 TDs to Kansas State. Across their last three games, UCF has allowed a jaw-dropping 833 rushing yards and 13 rushing TDs. Oklahoma’s RB room has been extremely maddening this season, but Walker has been the most productive of the bunch and was just the lead dog in a huge game against Texas, so I’d imagine he leads to room in usage this week. Good luck to anyone predicting the usage in this backfield, but the former walk-on has been the most consistent, productive, and healthy of the options this season so I don’t see how he’s not considered the favorite to have a big week.
WR Samuel Brown, UH – $6,500
Brown has been a beast for Houston this year, averaging 18.7 DK PPG. He may assume an even higher target share in Week 8 as his teammate Matthew Golden ($6,700) is dealing with a groin injury, but that also might play no factor at all considering Golden was practicing early in the week. Brown leads Houston’s receiving trio in yards per route run (2.27) and receiving grade (76.1) and is fine here even in a tough matchup. Texas certainly has a good defense, but it ranks 46th in EPA per pass and 114th in passing explosiveness, so I’m not sure I’d call the secondary elite or a “must avoid” kind of unit for opposing passing attacks.
WR Anthony Armstrong, Arkansas – $6,000
Makes for a good stack with KJ or can be played as a one-off pretty easily. Everything I said about this being a soft matchup applies to Armstrong. Mississippi State has given up 288+ passing yards in every game it’s played against an FBS foe and Alabama averaged 13.7 yards per attempt in the lone exception. He’s the clear WR1 for the Hogs with 20 more receptions, 279 more receiving yards, and 3 more TDs than any other wideout on the roster.
Secondary Plays
QB Quinn Ewers, Texas – $8,600
I’m not a huge Ewers fan but this is a great matchup against a Houston defense that ranks 125th in EPA per pass, 111th in passing success rate, and 96th in passing explosiveness. The Cougars aren’t disruptive up front (126th in front seven havoc) and frankly don’t do anything well. If UH surprisingly does a good job containing Brooks, Ewers could make for a good play as he will likely repeatedly beat a defense that ranks 130th in EPA per play and 131st in success rate on passing downs. UH just allowed 44.3 DK points to the mighty Garrett Greene and therefore Ewers could be in for a blowup spot, although if playing him I’d sub out Brooks.
QB John Rhys Plumlee, UCF – $7,900
He says that he’s at 100% but I’m not sure I believe him, so I won’t have much JRP. Still, his upside is as high as any QB on the slate if he is indeed feeling spry and that means he’s viable against a solid Oklahoma defense but one that gives up big runs (84th in rushing explosiveness).
QB Garrett Greene, WVU – $7,800
Greene runs a lot and therefore is in consideration against a beatable Oklahoma State defense (94th in EPA per play, 126th in explosiveness). Greene has at least 21 DK points in every game where he’s been healthy and he’s not my favorite play in any format but always can have a big day on the ground and find value, similar to JRP.
QB Jensen Jones, Air Force – $5,400
Not my favorite play at all, but he can be used as a punt considering his discounted price as a starting quarterback in a game where Air Force holds huge advantages on the offensive side of the ball.
RB Rashod Dubinion, Arkansas – $4,500
In lineups without KJ I would consider Dubinion. I know it’s tough because of how bad Arkansas’ OL has been, but Mississippi State’s defense has been terrible and Dubinion led the team with 14 carries in Rocket’s absence last week and found the end zone with a 14-yard reception.
RB Jalen Buckley, WMU – $5,000
Buckley’s usage will be great and I think he’ll be pretty popular this week with a very cheap price tag and a clear run-back option if using Rourke at QB. That’ll probably be pretty popular if you want to avoid in GPPs, but honestly, it’s a fine approach in all formats. This is a very difficult matchup as Ohio has been phenomenal defensively in a continuation of the improvement we saw over the back half of the schedule last year. The Bobcats rank 3rd in EPA per play and 7th in success rate overall and are the No. 1 team in the nation in EPA per rush. The defensive front has been particularly impressive, ranking 11th in line yards and sixth in front seven havoc. The Bobcats just held NIU, which has arguably the best rushing attack in the conference, to 230 rushing yards on 3.8 yards per carry. This could all go very poorly for Buckley but he still needs to be in consideration due to his mispricing and the fact that he’s handled 29 or more carries twice this year and has caught seven passes in his last two games as the focal point of an offense that operates at a quick tempo. WMU has averaged >4.0 yards per carry just once this season against FBS competition and the efficiency likely won’t be there so you’re betting on a heavy volume, a few receptions, and at least one touchdown if you’re playing Buckley.
RB Kaedin Feagin, Illinois – $4,900
Feagin was great for us last week and can be used again this week at another cheap price. He’s not as strong of a play this week in a test against a Wisconsin front ranking 38th in EPA per rush and 30th in rushing success rate, but I will point out that the Badgers were gashed on the ground by a bad Iowa offense a week ago and rank 102nd in rushing explosiveness. Feagin didn’t show that he’s an explosive back last week so I’m not sure what to think about this matchup so I’ll say that it’s fairly neutral.
WR Sam Wiglusz, Ohio – $6,400
Sammy Wiggles hasn’t had the big season that many fantasy owners (including me!) were expecting. Still, we saw his upside when he went 10-103-0 in the opener against SDSU, and this is a soft matchup.
WR Kenneth Wommack, WMU – $5,100
I actually might prefer Wommack as my favorite WMU runback this week, which might be a controversial take but is solely based on usage. He’s fine as a one-off as well in all formats while being extremely appealing in cash formats. He’s tied for the slate lead with 29 targets in his last three games as a volume hog in this fast-paced offense. WMU is a 17-point underdog and could be playing from behind
WR Kyle Williams, Washington State – $5,700
I liked Williams more this week before Dickert said Lincoln Victor ($6,200) was good to go this week. Still, Victor gave it a try last week but didn’t look healthy, running 23 routes and seeing just 4 targets. Williams has been explosive this season and led the team with 11 targets for 9-61-0 and is my favorite WSU WR this week. The Cougars have been inept offensively but showed a very high ceiling earlier in the year so I’d consider their players GPP-only targets with high variance.
WR Isaiah Williams, Illinois – $5,700
Williams has 10 more targets than anyone on the slate with 68. That makes him a good look in cash but he’s viable in all formats as a usage hog in this offense. He caught his first TD a week ago so he isn’t usually a huge threat for multiple scores, but he catches a lot of passes pretty much every week and is alright at a cheap price even against a tough Wisconsin defense (13th in EPA per pass, 12th in passing explosiveness).
WR Jalil Farooq, Oklahoma – $6,300
Farooq has come on pretty slowly this year, which was a bit strange considering Jeff Lebby’s WR1s usually do a ton of damage in CFF. He’s gone for 13+ DK points in three of his last four games, however, with 22+ DK points in two of those. He should be locked into a big role now that teammate Andrel Anthony is out for the year, although I’d have more confidence if he wasn’t being utilized like Ceedee Lamb currently is in Dallas — not enough volume for a guy who should be your top dog!
WR Keandre Lambert-Smith – $5,700
WR Xavier Worthy, Texas – $6,500
Both are WR1s on their team and are priced too low, so both are fine while not being exactly exciting. KLS is a GPP-only option while Worthy is fine in all formats against a Houston secondary that is entirely burnable.
WR Josh Kelly, Washington State – $6,100
It’s been a mixed bag for Kelly this year as he’s had some huge games this year (a la his 44.9 DK points against Oregon State) and some duds (1.9 DK points last week). He was hurt in the UCLA game two weeks ago and that’s probably a big reason why he had such a clunker last week, so he’s a GPP play only but still possesses immense upside as a top target in an Arbuckle offense that chucks it around a ton and should be playing from behind. Very risky play this week.
WR Drake Stoops, Oklahoma – $6,000
WR Nic Anderson, Oklahoma – $5,200
Stoops actually leads the Sooners this year with 36 targets. He’s not an explosive player and hasn’t flashed much of an upside, but there’s a chance that changes with Anthony out of the lineup. Anderson has a ton of upside and has been great this season, and he could flourish in a bigger role with Anthony out.
WR Steven Stilianos, Iowa – $3,100
To me, the top punt option is Stilianos. Iowa has been decimated by TE injuries but the staff has claimed they won’t change the offense with Lachey and All out. That means Stilianos could get a decent amount of targets considering the Hawkeyes are allergic to targeting WRs in the passing game. He didn’t catch a pass last week but was targetted once on 14 pass snaps, which is the third straight game in which he’s seen at least 13 pass snaps and therefore makes him the favorite to be on the field the most and run the most routes (100% route run rate last week). Johnny Pascuzzi ($3,000) ran only two routes last week but was targetted on both of them — his first two targets of the year. Both are a total dart throw but Stilianos is more likely to play a larger role whereas Pascuzzi is a complete unknown.
Others in my initial select player pool:
RB Darius Taylor, Minnesota – $6,000
WR Amare Thomas, UAB – $5,100
WR Rashod Owens, Oklahoma State – $4,800
RB Jordan James, Oregon – $5,400
RB Jermaine Brown Jr., UAB – $6,200
