Went a little longer and more in-depth on this slate than usual and tweaked the format a bit to include the odds board. Hope you all enjoy the changes, and best of luck this weekend in your lineups!
Odds Board
Syracuse @ Florida State (-17.5) | Over/Under 56.5
Iowa State @ Cincinnati (-5) | Over/Under 45
Arkansas @ Alabama (-20) | Over/Under 47
Georgia (-31.5) @ Vanderbilt | Over/Under 56
Indiana @ Michigan (-33) | Over/Under 45.5
Ohio State (-19) @ Purdue | Over/Under 49
Cal @ Utah (-12) | Over/Under 45
Kansas (-3) @ Oklahoma State | Over/Under 56
Oregon @ Washington (-3) | Over/Under 67.5
Texas A&M @ Tennessee (-3) | Over/Under 55.5
Illinois @ Maryland (-14) | Over/Under 51
Iowa @ Wisconsin (-10) | Over/Under 34.5
A lot of ugly Big 10 games on the slate per usual with DraftKings’ lame main slate decisions. The Oregon/Washington game stands out as the chalk stack with a total 11 points higher than any other game and then there are three games in the mid-50s that will require some decisions to be made.
Core Plays
QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington – $10,200 OR QB Bo Nix, Oregon – $10,00
WR Squirrel White, Tennessee – $6,000
WR Garrett Miller, Purdue – $4,100
So, this isn’t the most enticing grouping of core plays ever. It’s a big slate with a lot of ugly Big 10 games, so you can either stoop down and play a collection of 8 mid options, or you can prioritize a few of the best values as a starter (core) and see which pieces you can grab from good game environments or volume reliers (secondary plays) to fill out your lineup.
I usually don’t list “OR” in my core play as it doesn’t make a lot of sense at first and may be confusing, but I think that you really want one of either Penix or Nix or a lineup for exposure to both. I don’t really think it’s advisable to play both considering the expensive price tags, but it can be done if you feel so inclined. My preferred method is to choose one and go with it, although unfortunately, I don’t have a huge preference for one over the other. Penix is playing at home and has better stack options, so I’d imagine he’ll be more popular as he feels like the better play in a vacuum. He also doesn’t run at all and is playing an Oregon defense that has been surprisingly lights out against the pass and the staff has stated they think they have the best secondary in the country. Hmm, probably not — but I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Ducks get some pressure up the middle in this matchup and get to Penix a bit at times. The game environment should win out eventually and both QBs are great options on a slate that doesn’t offer much excitement at the position.
I didn’t list an RB as a core play as there are a lot of options to choose from but none that is worth prioritizing over anything else, in my opinion.
Two of my favorite WRs that I can see starting lineups with are Squirrell and Miller. Tennessee’s passing offense hasn’t kicked into gear yet, but Heupel is 7-1 coming off a bye in his career and I’d expect the offense to look the best it has all season this week with Cooper Mays returning to health along the OL and having an extra week to prepare. Texas A&M is a team that I want to target with game stacks this year because I think they’ll have some high-scoring games a la Miami. They get a lot of pressure generally but I doubt that happens as often as it has been recently against a Tennessee OL that ranks eighth in line yards, sixth in front seven havoc, and fourth in stuff rate this year. Those numbers are despite being without arguably their best OL for all but one game. The secondary is simply begging to get burned deep, ranking 130th in passing explosiveness and 76th in EPA per pass. White is an abnormally fast human and broke out for 9-104-0 in his last game after a slow start to the year, and I’d assume he looks more and more like the alpha in this passing attack following Bru McCoy’s injury.
Garrett Miller has 11+ FPs in back-to-back games and the TE1 for the rest of the season now that he’s returned to health and the fellas around him are injured. He went 8-71-0 last week against a good Iowa defense and should continue having a sizable role in the offense moving forward. He’s my favorite pay-down option and while he’s not exactly a “must play”, someone in this price range should probably be in your lineup so that you can pay up for a few studs.
Secondary Plays
QB Carson Beck, UGS – $8,700
QB Taulia Tagovailoa, UMD – $8,200
QB Joe Milton III, Tennessee – $8,800
None of these options in the $8k range get me overly excited, but they’re all viable.
Personally, I’d prefer to go down to the $7k range or lower on this slate in order to afford the other pieces that I want, but there aren’t any core-like plays in that range either. Beck should be popular this week, but you never know in CFB DFS because people do some really dumb shit sometimes and it somehow becomes chalk — I can’t usually tell about ownership, and I consider that a good thing because far too many people become obsessed with it and then talk themselves into manufacturing terrible lineups every week. Anyway, UGA’s offense if finally clicking and the team is the healthiest it’s been all year so they should score a lot against a miserable Vandy defense ranking 120th in EPA per play. The Commodores are one of the worst teams against the pass for the second straight year, so Beck should continually exploit a secondary ranking 123rd in EPA per pass and 116th in passing success rate. The main worry is that Kirby calls off the dogs early, but they have a bye next week anyway and the schedule is kind of a joke until the end of the year anyway, so it’s not as big of a worry as it would be some weeks.
Taulia is pretty much fine every week but never a priority. He spreads the ball around to four different WRs and that means finding a way to stack him is a mess and I’m of the belief it’s not worthy of your time unless you’re building a million lineups, in which case stack him with all four options in four different lineups, respectively, and see what happens. Illinois stinks out loud defensively, ranking 87th in EPA per play and 108th in passing success rate. This game environment may not be great, however, and rain is in the forecast.
Joe Milton III hasn’t been good this year (shocker) but I’ve already mentioned that it would be the least surprising thing in the world to me this week if this offense looks the best it has all year after the bye week. Those long passes we’ve been waiting to see should be there against A&M as long as Milton has time to throw. There’s the worry he loses rushing yards due to sacks against an Aggies front ranking second nationally in front seven havoc, but he could also add a score or two with his legs.
QB Jason Bean, Kansas – $7,000
QB Garrett Shrader, Syracuse – $7,600
Yeah, not a very exciting $7k range. Bean has put up back-to-back stinkers but has a very affordable price tag for a QB leading an offense that ranks top 10 in EPA per play (8th), success rate (sixth), and line yards (sixth). Oh yeah, those numbers are despite playing with a backup QB for pretty much the whole year. They have a good OL and are good and throwing the ball and running the ball, which in my limited time on this Earth watching football has proven to be a good recipe for scoring points and winning games. A lot of analysts like to talk about how all Kansas did is trick people last year and it won’t work again this year, so maybe those folks are using higher analytical skills than I am — who can really tell? Anyway, Bean is a supremely fast human and faces an Oklahoma State defense that ranks 121st in explosiveness and just allowed Will Howard to run for a 70-yard play last week, so Bean has 100+ rushing yards and 2+ rushing TD upside. He should be able to win via the air considering the Jayhawks have huge advantages there, ranking 11th in EPA per pass and fifth in passing success compared to Oklahoma St, which checks in at 69th in EPA per pass, 41st in passing success rate, and 102nd in passing explosiveness defensively. He should be lower owned this week after two straight duds, but one was as a short-notice replacement against an elite defense and the other was in a game where they could’ve played with 9 dudes on offense and still won by multiple scores, so I’d assume he throws it more than 12 times this week.
I never like playing Shrader because he isn’t good and doesn’t have any WRs worth a darn, but he runs the ball a lot and is always a threat for a huge game due to his production on the ground. GPPs only.
QB Rocco Becht, Iowa St – $5,300
QB Hudson Card, Purdue – $5,200
If you need the savings, either Becht or Card are your two best options in my opinion. Neither are exciting — Card has a tough matchup but should at least throw the ball a lot as he should be playing from behind, and Becht leads a prolific offense ranking 131st in success rate but gets a good matchup against a Cincy secondary ranking 115th in EPA per pass and 128th in passing success rate. The Cyclones are top-50 in pass rate on the year and have been one of the worst run-blocking teams in the nation, so it wouldn’t be surprising if the run game got shut down and Becht hucked it some 35 times. Iowa State ranks 132nd in line yards, 133rd in stuff rate, and 129th in rushing success rate — troubling figures against a tough Cincy front ranking 14th in rushing success rate and third in stuff rate.
RB Devin Neal, Kansas – $6,700
RB Kaden Feagin, Illinois – $4,500
RB Ollie Gordon II, Oklahoma St – $6,200
Grouping these three individuals together because they all seem like strong plays. Neal has been a beast this year but I’m not super thrilled about playing him every week when he doesn’t get very much volume. He’s managed to get at least 100 yards and a touchdown almost every week, but is that sustainable on such low volume? Kansas’ offense is so good that it really might be, but he’s going to continue sharing the work and that makes him a dice roll in my opinion — he’s far less safe than his game log leads you to believe. Still, my general strategy of being overweight on Kansas players has worked out well over the last two years, so I’ll have Neal in some lineups.
Feagin is my favorite paydown option at RB as the true freshman should be the lead back going forward after the Illini has seen each of their top three backs go down due to injury. The offense has been dreadful, but the OL has still managed to rank 22nd in stuff rate and gets both starting guards, Josh Gesky and Zy Crisler, back this week after they missed the game against Nebraska. One would assume they try to ground-and-pound it here against a Maryland defense that has been good so far but hasn’t played anyone, and the advanced metrics don’t like them (82nd in rushing success rate, 114th in stuff rate). I wouldn’t be surprised if Illinois has an advantage in the trenches, but most folks probably would be considering the past performances of both teams this season. The Terps did just shut down Ohio State’s rushing attack and therefore perception has them as an elite defense, but I think the verdict is still out considering OSU’s OL has been bad, they haven’t been able to run the ball all year, and they were without their top RB. Feagin was one of my favorite recruits in this cycles and was a Dynasty league priority for my in the offseason — he’s a big, physical back who can handle a big workload and even caught three passes last week, which is very encouraging.
Ollie Gordon II looks OK this week against a Kansas defense that ranks just 114th in EPA per rush and 127th in rushing explosiveness. Gordon is the best player on this offense and has rightfully assumed a workhorse role over the last two weeks (44 touches) after stupidly splitting carries to start the year.
RB Bucky Irving, Oregon – $7,500
RB Jordan James, Oregon – $5,600
Either one of these Oregon backs is fine in a fantastic game environment. Both will split carries with teammate Noah Whittington out for the year and Nix will siphon off some rushing usage as well, but the offense is so good that the workload doesn’t matter as much as it does for most teams. Think like what I said for Kansas, except to a couple more degrees. The Ducks rank first nationally in both line yards and second level yards, meaning they have arguably the best run-blocked team in the nation to go along with an elite pair of running backs. It’s not a surprise that they’re also first nationally in EPA per rush and rushing explosiveness while coming in a very disappointing second (gasp) nationally rushing success rate. They’re the complete package and should move the ball against a sus Washington front ranking 89th in EPA per pass and 71st in success rate. The Huskies have struggled to impact games with their talented defensive front for a second straight year, ranking 119th in line yards, 126th in stuff rate, and 133rd in front seven havoc. This is the most glaring mismatch in this game between two great teams. Bucky is really hard to fit into lineups but is fine in all formats if you can, while James is an interesting tournament pivot who could realistically score 3 TDs this week. He doesn’t have more than seven carries in any game against an FBS team, doesn’t catch a ton of passes, and had just 4.2 points in the Ducks’ most difficult game of the year, so he’s a GPP play only. All that being said, I still feel like he’ll be very overlooked considering Noah Whittington had nearly 1,000 scrimmage yards in this same role last year and James has more upside as the goal-line back with seven rushing scores already this season and a team-high 8.7 yards per carry.
RB LeQuint Allen, Syracuse – $6,100
RB Jaylen Glover, Utah – $5,500
RB Kaleb Johnson, Iowa – $5,500
RB Rocket Sanders, Arkansas – $5,700
This group of backs doesn’t excite me too much so I’ll try to keep things brief. They’re still all in consideration for my player pool as mid-range options if needed. Allen is a good player and gets receiving work so if fine in all formats against a Florida State defense that hasn’t been good against the rush (67th in rushing success rate, 101st in rushing explosiveness). The Seminoles will probably improve on those numbers as that’s a talented defense and they’re playing at home this week against a sinking Cuse team, but on the other hand, they’ve been struggling on defense for two years now. Glover could see a big workload, especially if JQ Jackson sits, considering the RB room has had a ton of injuries and is basically down to a few 170-pound true freshmen behind him if Jackson is still out this week. Even if JQ plays, he’s been limited and ineffective, which is also an apt way to describe this Utah offense in general. Still, Glover could get 20+ carries against a Cal defense that just gave up a 50-burger last week and ranks 116th in EPA per play and 115th in success rate. Johnson is similar to Glover in that he could get a lot of carries this week, but his matchup is more difficult and it looks to me like the team is souring a bit on Johnson as a 20+ carry kind of guy every week. Rocket has been ineffective behind a miserable OL this season and isn’t at 100% playing against a very tough Bama front, so he won’t be in many of my lineups at all but is too talented to leave off this list considering he’s an elite CFB player priced as if he plays for Iowa!
RB Eli Sanders, Iowa State – $4,400
Similar to his teammate Becht, Sanders is OK this week if you really need him as he went for 16-99-1 against TCU last week. I’d imagine the Cyclones have difficulty running the ball in this matchup but Sanders is very fast and is the favorite to lead his team in carries, so he’s too cheap nonetheless.
WR Ainias Smith, Texas A&M – $4,900
WR Isaiah Williams, Illinois – $5,500
WR Jaylin Noel, Iowa St – $5,100
I nearly considered making Smith a core play but decided not to considering my player pool is so big this week and he’s not priority number one. He is a terrific option here after going for 12+ FPs in each of his last four games, including showings of 17.1 and 23.2 FPs. It’s an interesting matchup because Tennessee’s defense has been superb so far this season, ranking 14th in EPA per play and fourth in success rate. How much can we trust those numbers? I do think this is a good defense, but I think they’re especially strong in the front seven while still having some liabilities in the back end. Although they rank 10th in both EPA per pass and passing success rate, they haven’t yet played a team that can both block and throw the ball (imagine), which A&M can at least approximate doing. Long story short, I’d be very surprised if Tennesee’s secondary’s numbers didn’t regress as soon as this week. A&M isn’t good up front but does rank 14th in stuff rate and 55th in front seven havoc, so they aren’t terrible, so Max Johnson should at least have enough time to target Smith, who ranks 14th on the slate in targets (39) and 8th in receiving grade (80.9 per PFF). Teammate Evan Stewart ($7,100) is the alpha in the offense and normally would be a priority play for me here, but he hasn’t been healthy since Week 2 so I’m not sure I have much confidence in him until he proves he’s 100%, so Smith should continue commanding a decent workload for now.
WR Jalen McMillan, Washington – $7,000
WR Ja’Lynn Polk, Washington – $6,100
WR Rome Odunze, Washington – $7,900
You’ll probably want to play a UW receiver — if you can afford them. Polk will likely be extremely chalky and looks like a fantastic play at cost. He’ll need to hit big plays against a Ducks secondary ranking third in EPA per pass and 24th in passing success rate, so I consider him a GPP-only option. McMillan is my favorite of the plays as he’s the best per-dollar value in my opinion as an elite asset with an affordable price, and he may be low-owned since he hasn’t played in a few weeks. The way I’m reading the tea leaves is that he could’ve played a few weeks ago (as it was reported he would) but was held out for precautionary reasons in a soft matchup to ensure that he was 100% when needed against the Ducks. Odunze is a monster and is viable every week.
WR Will Sheppard, Vanderbilt – $6,000
WR Remel Keyton, Tennessee – $6,200
My other two favorite targets in the $6k range are Sheppard, who leads the slate in targets (61) so is still viable despite playing with a backup QB against UGA, and Keyton, who is clearly the second WR after White IMO and is more expensive too so is therefore more of a GPP pivot.
WR Jaden Bray, Oklahoma St – $4,900
WR TJ Sheffield, Purdue – $4,700
WR London Humphreys, Vanderbilt – $4,600
WR Jayden Higgins, Iowa St – $4,300
WR Erick All, Iowa – $4,300
I don’t love the $4k range other than Smith, but here are the other plays I’d consider. Bray or all would be my favorite — Bray should be Oklahoma State’s WR1 going forward now that Striblind is out for the year and that’s typically a very profitable role under Gundy, and All was the only Iowa TE or WR to catch a pass last week so is therefore the No.1 target for Santa Barbara legend Deacon Hill and this offense.
WR Rashod Owens, Oklahoma St – $3,500
WR Chamon Metayer, Cincy – $4,000
WR Mason Fairchild, Kansas – $3,900
WR Terrance Ferguson, Oregon – $3,900
WR Corey Dyches, Maryland – $3,900
WR Amari Niblack, Alabama – $3,700
WR Dan Villari, Syracuse – $3,600
These are the paydown options I’d consider — a whole lot of tight ends and some uninspiring wide receivers. I suppose Ferguson makes the most sense as a way to get cheap exposure to that UW/Oregon game, but he’s a GPP flier only. Rashod Ownes played a full-time role last week in place of Stribling and caught five passes for 75 yards on seven targets, so he’s probably the best value of this bunch.
