MACtion rumbles on with an enticing three-game slate on Tuesday night. There are more options than usual at QB and RB for a small slate as there are some surprisingly potent options.
Odds Board
Ball State (+10) @ NIU | Over/Under 43
Central Michigan (+3) @ Western Michigan | Over/Under 56.5
Ohio (-7) @ Buffalo | Over/Under 44
Pretty clear which game will be most heavily stacked — the directional Michigan schools are supposed to combine for two more touchdowns than either of the other two games.
Core Plays
RB Jalen Buckley, WMU – $7,500
WR Sam Wiglusz, Ohio – $5,900
WR Sam Womack WMU – $5,100
Smaller core tonight with no quarterback and only one RB. That’s purposeful as 5 of the 6 QBs look viable to me while there are 4–5 RBs that look playable. The best back in my opinion in all formats is Buckley, who should be the latest beneficiary of testing a woeful CMU defense that ranks 133rd in EPA per play. The Chips are especially soft up front (128th in line yards, 125th in stuff rate) and therefore it’s no surprise that they routinely get gashed on the ground (125th in rushing success rate). His volume has been a bit up and down this season but I’m not overthinking it — his volume dipped when he was injured and has been elite at points this season (three games with 25+ carries).
The WR options are not as enticing, so I’m plugging in the two white dude WRs with reasonable prices who would be my WR1 and WR2 if I were making prices. Wiglusz hasn’t been the stud many expected him to be going into the year but he still leads all WRs on this slate in DK PPG (15), which is 2.4 more than the next-closest pass catcher. He has the second-most targets (68) of any WR on the slate and is behind only Womack (73). The WMU slot man has developed a nice chemistry with his new QB (more on him later) and has seen a whopping 46 targets across his last 6 games, so he’s a cash lock and I’m not moving off him in GPPs. I mentioned that CMU stinks against the run but they aren’t much better against the pass (127th in EPA per pass)
Priority Plays
QB Hayden Wolff, WMU – $6,900
I truly find 5 of the QBs viable so am not looking to lock anyone up as this looks like a multi-entry GPP kind of slate. Wolff and Rourke are my two favorite options. I’m not sure if Wolff will be super owned but his team has the highest implied total on the slate and operates at a fast tempo against a piss-poor defense that was burnt for 8.2 yards per play by an FCS school at one point this season. Wolff runs a little bit (17-42-2 across his last three games) and can be stacked with Womack.
QB Kurtis Rourke, Ohio – $7,200
Rourke has disappointed this year but still looks great in cash (15+ DK points in five of his last six games) and GPPs (35.6 DK point ceiling this year). He can clearly be stacked with Wiglusz and even another piece. The volume has been nice (36+ pass attempts in three straight) but he hasn’t put up huge numbers as he’s faced some alright defenses this season. He almost always rushes for positive yardage and is a threat for the 300+ passing yards bonus.
RB Marquez Cooper, Ball State – $7,400
There are enough good RBs that you don’t have to play Cooper, but I think you almost have to in cash and I will be in most GPP lineups as well. He’s a superb back (88.7 PFF rush grade, 48 MTFs to lead the slate by 21), gets terrific volume (25+ carries in back-to-back games), and is in a smash matchup (NIU defense ranks 113th in rushing success rate, 127th in front seven havoc, 131st in stuff rate).
RB Marion Lukes, CMU – $6,000
The tough call on this slate is whether you play Lukes or his QB, Bauer. I think Bauer is a trash can and is more TD-dependent than Lukes, so I’m siding with the RB in most formats while admitting it’s a bit of a coin flip. I’ve always been a fan of Lukes because he has game-breaking speed and is used in the passing game so he has a fantasy-friendly profile. He’s coming off by far his best game of his career (21-202-1) which means now could be the time to sell high, but I’m not following that strategy considering what I just said about his talents and the fact that he has at least 16.4 DK points in four of his last five games. WMU has either been terrible or great against the run this year in a roller coaster of performance dependent on matchup. PFF grades them 125th in rush D so they’re probably not great. CMU doesn’t do anything well other than run the ball on offense (37th in EPA per rush, 25th in rushing explosiveness) and the OL is pretty good (37th in stuff rate) so I’m going to guess they keep the train rolling after popping for 331 yards and 4 TDs on the ground last week. Teammate Myles Bailey is questionable — if he’s back, Lukes probably falls below Brown in my pecking order, but if he’s out I’ll have a ton of Lukes.
WR Antario Brown, NIU – $6,200
The Brown/Lukes debate is a tough one but I’m fitting 3 RBs into almost every lineup and it’s not unreasonable to play 4 RBs. Brown has three 20+ DK point games on his ledger across his last five games and has a ceiling game (55 DK points) thrown in that mix. He doesn’t get receiving work and is more yardage-dependent than I’d typically like to see, so I see him as more appealing in GPPs. NIU holds advantages in the metrics for running and blocking and it wouldn’t be surprising a bit to see Brown top 20 carries again this week, and he’s always a threat to take a few long runs considering his substantial (and slate-leading) 48.6% breakaway percentage.
Secondary Plays
QB Jase Bauer, CMU – $7,500
QB Kiael Kelly, Ball State – $6,500
QB Rocky Lombardi, NIU – $7,000
Here are the other three QBs I’d consider, with Bauer being the clear leader (non-price adjusted) and Lombardi being a distant third. Bauer is boom-or-bust in that he can’t throw the ball much but is always a threat for 100+ rushing yards and/or multiple rushing scores. That makes him viable every week in an offense that isn’t shy handing its QB rushing attempts (50 across the last three games). As I mentioned earlier, WMU ranks bottom-10 in PFF’s rush D grade so this could be another smash spot after NIU rolled over for the Chips last week. Kelly has thrown no ability to throw the ball, which limits his upside, and Cooper is my preferred Ball State target. Still, he runs a ton (52-252-4 across his last three games) and we just saw a dual-threat QB (Bauer) destroy this Huskies defense. Lombardi hasn’t done much this year but has had some difficult matchups and will likely see better days. He can stumble into a rushing TD or two and has a clear stacking option at WR.
RB Sieh Bangura, Ohio – $6,100
How the mighty have fallen. Bangura is in a timeshare this year after being a volume-monster and fantasy goldmine last year, which stinks. Still, he has at least 13.7 DK points in four of his last five games and gets receiving work and goal-line work.
WR Trayvon Rudolph, NIU – $6,000
Rudolph looks good in GPPs coming off an 8-171-1 blowup against CMU. He now has 15 receptions across his last two games and looks poised for a productive MACtion after a slow start to the year. That’s understandable considering he was coming off injury, deals with underwhelming QB play for a run-first team, and has had some difficult matchups. He’s still a highly volatile player that has some monster games in his career mixed in with a lot of single-digit fantasy outings.
WR Miles Cross, Ohio – $5,600
Cross has emerged as Ohio’s clear WR2 this year. He makes sense in Rourke double stacks or on his own to get different from Sammy Wiggles. Cross is third on the slate in targets (59) and all of his metrics a bit behind his teammate Wiggles, but there’s nothing drastic enough in their numbers to catogorize them as completely different players. Cross is a very strong play tonight.
WR Anthony Sambucci, WMU – $4,900
GPP dart throw, but Sambucci has shown a ceiling (31.2 DK points against Ball State) this season and has a very favorable matchup.
WR Tyler Walton, Ohio – $4,800
The third Ohio WR to consider if you need some salary relief to jam in the stud RBs is Walton, who has seen six targets in each of his last two games.
WR Tanner Koziol, Ball State – $4,500
Ball State has been content to throw the ball as infrequently as possible lately and that relegates Koziol, one of the G5’s most productive TEs a season ago, to a GPP dart. He still looks fine at a discounted price as Ball State doesn’t have any WRs to note.
WR Grayson Barnes, NIU – $4,100
Barnes isn’t a high-volume player for a team that doesn’t pass it a ton, but he’ll look good anytime teammate Kacper Kutkiewicz may not suit up. Stay tuned for news on his teammate, but we likely won’t get any, so I’m proceeding as if he’s out again as he hasn’t played since Week 6. Barnes has at least three targets in six of his last seven games and has three double-digit DK performances across his last four games. He’s clearly underpriced and is a strong pay-down option.
WR Boobie Curry, Buffalo – $4,000
WR Tyler Foster, Ohio – $3,400
Here are the other cheap WRs I’d consider. Curry is an Arizona transfer who actually has the sixth-most targets (50) of any WR on the slate. He’s been remarkably inefficient with those targets (22-209-1 with a paltry 1.11 yards per route run) but still looks viable in GPPs. He is usually targetted downfield (11.4 aDOT) and Buffaloe projects to be playing from behind against Ohio, so it’s not unreasonable to expect him to see a few deep shots and hopefully come down with one or two. Foster has 14 targets across his last three games and gets a lot of playing time for a team with a very good QB and looks the best to me of anyone under $4k.
PrizePicks
Marquez Cooper OVER 84.5 Rushing Yards
Sammy Wiggles OVER 58.5 Receiving Yards
