Two game slate tonight and you know what that means — time to build some greasy lineups!
Odds Board
South Florida (+15.5) @ UTSA | Over/Under 67
Colorado (+4.5) @ Washington State | Over/Under 64.5
USF rips off four more plays per game (84.2) than any other team in the country while Colorado/Wazzu is expected to be a bit of a shootout as both teams rank top 3 in pass rate. This is as enticing as a two-game slate can be, which creates an interesting situation in which there are more viable players than there are on some much larger slates.
Core Plays
WR Lincoln Victor, WaSt – $6,300
WR Sean Atkins, USF – $5,600
WR Joshua Cephus, UTSA – $6,000
WR Travis Hunter, Colorado – $6,200
This has to be the weirdest core I’ve had on a slate all season. Still, it seems pretty straightforward to me — there are a bunch of stud WRs on this slate, so I’m paying to get the four that I want. These are my four favorites, with the top three being no-brainers. You can make a case for subbing Hunter out for Weaver and I wouldn’t argue with you about it, but Hunter has mostly been better lately. Start with the WRs you want and then figure out the QB stacks from there.
Priority Plays
QB Frank Harris, UTSA – $7,100
QB Cameron Ward, WaSt – $8,000
There are 4 good QBs on this slate and finding the right two to play is key. That’s the most difficult part of the slate for me, but my initial build featured Harris and Ward. Harris has been a colossal wreck this season from a fantasy perspective. Still, he’s been in college for seven years and was an elite CFF asset as recently as last year. He’s a dual threat with a clear stacking option and gets a great matchup in a pace-up game against a USF defense that ranks 114th in EPA per pass and 132nd in passing explosiveness. Ward has been supremely hit or miss this season but it seems like a “hit” spot at home for Senior Night against a woeful Colorado defense that ranks 118th in EPA per pass and 129th in passing success rate.
RB Nay’Quan Wright, USF – $5,300
The RBs on this slate are brutal but we have to play someone. Wright is my first first choice but the margins are slim. He’s a good receiver and the most productive RB for a team that runs a million plays. UTSA has a good defensive front but they mostly excel at creating havoc (16th in front seven havoc) while not being overwhelming against the run (126th in power success rate, 70th in EPA per rush). This defense has a propensity for allowing big plays on the ground (110th in rushing explosiveness) which seems right up Wright’s alley considering his strong 39.7% breakaway percentage. He’s the second-highest graded rusher (81.9) on the slate and averages a healthy 3.43 yards after contact per attempt.
Secondary Plays
QB Byrum Brown, USF – $7,400
Brown is averaging the most DK PPG (30.8) on the slate yet is the third most expensive QB, so he makes a lot of sense. He’s had 3 “meh” games in his last 4 but has had a lot of blowups this season that are propping up his average. So, will this be another blowup? It could be, but UTSA’s defense is pretty good and they probably collect a fair amount of sacks and tackles for loss here, which affects Brown’s numbers. Still, they’re prone to explosive rushes as I mentioned with Wright, and Brown is as dangerous of a rusher at the QB position as there is in college football, so another huge outing is possible.
QB Shedeur Sanders, Colorado – $8,700
He’s fallen off a bit lately and Wazzu’s defense is better against the pass than the rush, so I’m not sure this is a huge Shedeur game. There’s also the worry about Sean Lewis being demoted as OC, which hurts the offense. Still, he makes this offense go and Wazzu’s defense just hasn’t been good overall this season, so he’s viable.
RB Robert Henry, UTSA – $5,400
Henry has a legendary 90.2 PFF rushing grade and has managed to find the end zone 8 times on just 89 attempts. He’s in a three-way timeshare (assuming Barnes returns) but is still viable against this USF defense allowing 35.6 PPG. The Bulls have allowed 21 rushing TDs and it’d be pretty surprising if Henry wasn’t celebrating for the cameras at least once on Friday night. He was the NJCAA offensive player of the year in 2022 after rushing for 1,302 yards and 18 TDs and it seems like he’ll be picking up a lot of buzz once folks notice his PFF grades and prior production.
RB Djouvensky Schlenbaker, WaSt – $3,500
Schlenbaker was a nice hit for us on last week’s main slate when not a ton else went well. The Cougars are likely down to two healthy scholarship RBs and that means Schlenbaker should continue to see a decent workload. His team can’t run the ball a lick and I’m not sure you need the price savings on this slate since all RBs are cheap, but he’s still viable against a Colorado defense that checks in at 110th in EPA per rush.
RB Leo Pulalasi, WaSt – $4,000
He came out of nowhere and actually led the Cougars with 11-66-0 on the ground while adding two receptions for 14 yards. Most of my analysis for Schlenbaker applies to Pulalasi here, although it’s tough to consider either of these two guys when they’re in a time share. Colorado’s defense stinks, but I don’t think they’re as bad as Cal’s. Still, it’s close, and Pulalasi was effective last week.
RB Kevorian Barnes, UTSA – $6,600
I’m mostly fading Barnes as I prefer to pay up at WR and QB, but he could still end up viable if he returns to action here and crushes a crushable USF defense.
WR Michael Brown-Stephens, USF – $4,900
WR Naiem Simmons, USF – $4,700
WR Khafre Brown, USF – $5,200
If MBF returns to action then he’s my favorite of the secondary USF WRs, but he missed last week’s game so stay tuned for information. Simmons is a boom-or-bust GPP option, and the same can be said for Brown.
WR Devin McCuin, UTSA – $3,900
WR Tykee Ogle-Kellog, UTSA – $5,000
McCuin is my favorite of the cheap WRs as the freshman has been pretty productive this season and gets a good matchup. He has the highest yards per route run (2.5) of any WR on the slate and is priced about $1,600 too low. His teammate Ogle-Kellog is also viable as he’s seen exactly 6 targets in each of his last three games and at 6’5” has found the end zone six times this season.
WR Xavier Weaver, Colorado – $6,800
WR Josh Kelly, WaSt – $5,900
WR Kyle Williams, WaSt – $6,100
These fellas are also fine if you’re building double-stack lineups, and Kelly or Williams are OK if you’re avoiding Victor chalk. Weaver has had five underwhelming games in his last six appearances, so I’m mostly fading as it looks like Hunter is the new alpha. Kelly is a hit-or-miss GPP option, whereas Williams is simply too cheap on this slate and has been fairly consistent with five 15+ DK outings in his last seven.
