Conference Championship weekend kicks off with a nice little two-game slate on Friday night with the CUSA and Pac-12 Championship games. Let’s dive in.
Odds Board
New Mexico State (+11.5) @ Liberty | Over/Under 57
Oregon (-9.5) @ Washington | Over/Under 65.5
There will be a lot of people flocking to the Pac-12 Championship game for a game stack since the total is in the mid-60s. The CUSA Championship is only a touchdown off and has some intriguing fantasy options, so I have no qualms about spreading the love here and don’t feel forced into jamming mainly Pac-12 players.
Core Plays
RB Bucky Irving, Oregon – $6,900
RB Quinton Cooley, Liberty – $6,300
WR Aaron Bedgood, Liberty – $3,200
Small core for me, but I see no reason to get away from the two clear top RBs on this slate, especially in cash. Bucky has been a monster this season and the Ducks have a massive advantage on the ground against Washington, so I think he’s priced about $1,000 too cheap.
| Oregon Offense | Metric | Washington Defense |
| 2 | Rush EPA | 130 |
| 2 | Rush Success % | 128 |
| 3 | Line Yards | 132 |
| 2 | Havoc | 100 |
| 3 | Havoc F7 | 128 |
| 33 | Stuff Rate | 130 |
| 19 | Power Success% | 106 |
Cooley is averaging 19 DK PPG and although he hasn’t been utilized as heavily lately, he was trusted with substantial workloads earlier in the season when his team was in losable games. He should get a decent amount of carries and the Flaming Libs have a huge advantage on the ground (fourth in rush rate, third in both EPA per rush and rushing success rate) over NMSU’s rush defense (92nd in both EPA per rush and rushing success rate). With UW’s Dillon Johnson in a similar price range and averaging a similar DK PPG (18.9) in a game with a higher total, I could see him picking up ownership too. He seems like the clear RB3 on this slate, however, with the toughest matchup and the fact that he was in a walking boot last week.
Bedgood is simply way too cheap and there are a lot of pricey options in the passing attacks elsewhere, so he allows you to fit in the pricey players without sacrificing much other than salary. He’s involved in both the rushing game and the passing game and likely catches a few passes while adding some yardage on the ground as he’s an integral part of their weird offense. He’s averaging 9.1 DK PPG on the year and has no less than 7.0 DK points in any of his last seven games.
Priority Plays
QB Kaidon Salter, Liberty – $8,200
All four QBs on this slate are viable, so I’m going to discuss the virtues and vices of each while listing them in my (slight) preferential order. Salter averages the same amount of PPG as Nix, is less stack-reliant, runs more, arguably has a better matchup, and yet is still $1,300 cheaper in salary. That makes him the No. 1 QB option on the slate and he’s been a money-making machine for us this year so I’m not entirely hopping off now. My concern is that I’d rather play the other, cheaper rushing options (Cooley, Bedgood) as priorities and it’s an odd stack to have all three. The Libs have paid off in odd stacks all year so why not one more time? He chucks it deep and has hit big plays more often than not, but his fantasy outlook isn’t as safe as a game log check would make you believe considering the boom-or-bust nature of this passing attack.
QB Diego Pavia, NMSU – $6,600
He’s way cheaper than the other QBs and there isn’t a great reason why other than his team has the lowest team total on the slate, so naturally I’m very intrigued by the Pissing Passer for this slate. He leads the team in both passing and rushing (yards and TDs) and is essentially their whole offense, so of course he’s in play in all formats. As for his vices? Well, I alluded to that with his nickname.
QB Bo Nix, Oregon – $9,500
The Heisman frontrunner is on this slate so naturally he’s interesting. He’s on a heater, racking up 34+ DK points in four straight games. He didn’t reach 31 DK points in any of his games prior to that, however, so he’s not as safe as a quick game log check would make you believe. Washington is way worse against the rush than they are the pass (ninth in EPA per pass, third in passing explosiveness) and Bo had 27.88 DK points in the first matchup, which probably isn’t enough to pay off this price tag. That being said, he has some lovely stacking options and Oregon’s offense is a machine, so he’s viable in all formats.
QB Michael Penix Jr., UW – $9,100
The narrative coming into this matchup is that Penix has lost the Heisman and is either washed or playing through injury. I mean, UW hasn’t looked great lately and I think Oregon beats them, but what if not of that is true? It’s not even slightly crazy to think he has a big game against a defense with pretty metrics but that hasn’t faced anybody, and he wins the Heisman in an undefeated regular season and CFP appearance. He doesn’t run at all and is expensive but makes sense as a GPP pivot with clear stacking options.
RB Jordan James, Oregon – $4,500
Oregon’s ground game has the biggest advantage on this slate and James probably sees somewhere around 10 touches. He has 11 TDs on the year and found the end zone in the first matchup (15 DK points) so it wouldn’t be even the slightest bit surprising if he did so again in Sin City. He has 12+ DK points in eight of his last 10 games and is fine in all formats. You can certainly play him alongside Bucky, especially in lineups without Nix, but all three are also fine together in GPPs.
WR Tez Johnson, Oregon – $6,600
Oh yeah, wide receivers. Tez leads all pass-catchers in targets (50) across the last five weeks and has a ridiculous 4.04 yards per route run in that span. He’s clearly emerged as a go-to option for his brother over the latter half of the season and is priced way too cheap. I think that UW has one really good CB (Jabbar Muhammad) but is merely fine elsewhere in the secondary, so if I’m them I put Muhammad on Troy Franklin. Slot R Lincoln Victor posted 11-88-1 on this defense just last week (Tez 94% slot since Week 9) and a shitty Stanford offense tossed it for 367 yards on the Huskies not too long ago, so I wouldn’t overthink this matchup a ton.
WR Rome Odunze, UW – $7,400
Pricing is soft on this slate and you can pay up for one of the elite WRs to pair with Tez. Rome is my pick as he’s emerged as the clear alpha for this elite passing offense and has 47 targets in his last 5 games. He averages 26.9 DK PPG, has 29+ DK points in three straight games, and dropped 8-128-2 on the Ducks in the first matchup. Oregon’s top CB Khyree Jackson has been in and out of the lineup a bit to end the year but seems good to go after handling 61 snaps last week. Odunze got the better of these CBs the first go around and is the favorite to do so again.
Secondary Plays
RB Billy Lucas, Liberty – $4,000
RB Vaughn Blue, Liberty – $3,000
These two are a poor man’s James for this slate, but both could pay off at a similar or better rate and have cheaper price tags. Lucas has been getting a decent amount of work this season and is the preferred option. Blue is a talented trFR who carved out a role for this team to start the year but was knocked out with an injury since Week 3. Well, he returned last week and handled 5 rushes for 38 yards. He could catch a pass or two and get a few nice runs to pay off at min price. Bedgood is a safer option at a similar price but Blue makes sense in GPPs.
WR Troy Franklin, Oregon – $7,300
Franklin has been absurd this season (26.8 DK PPG), is priced lower than he should be, and it’s a short slate. Of course he’s viable. I’m finding it difficult to fit him, Tez, Romeo, both RBs and two QBs, so that’s why he’s located down here at the bottom of the article. He’s fine in all formats and it’s splitting hairs between him and Rome. Tez is the more affordable teammate and that has me leaning his way in most formats, but Troy is a better player and has a longer track record of production this season.
WR CJ Daniels, Liberty – $5,100
He’s a nice discount as a WR1. He’s averaging just 5 targets per game since Week 9 but has a juicy 3.66 yards per route run in that span. He’s targetted with deep passes (15.2 aDOT in that span) and is very volatile, so GPPs only. He had 25.9 DK points in the first meetings between these teams with 4-129-1 (32.3 yards per catch!). Still, NMSU is pretty good at limiting explosives through the air (24th in passing explosiveness, 25th in EPA per pass).
WR Jalen McMillan, UW – $5,600
Polk has disappeared from this offense as he’s only getting cardio lately, and McMillan returned to a healthy snap share last week with 27 routes run. He’s done nothing but hurt me this year in DFS so I’m not exactly begging to play him again for one last breakup, but he’s viable at a very cheap price considering his talent and opportunity. He had just 5-26-0 last week but that’s almost encouraging considering he actually saw the field and had five more catches than Polk.
Punt options include:
WR Jack Westover, UW – $3,300
WR Terrance Ferguson, Oregon – $3,600
WR Gary Bryant Jr., Oregon – $3,500
WR Bentley Hanshaw, Liberty – $3,400
WR Germie Bernard, UW – $3,300
PrizePicks
Kaidon Salter OVER 21.5 Fantasy Score
Diego Pavia OVER 16.5 Fantasy Score (+ OVER 207.5 Pass+Rush Yds)
Bucky Irving OVER 91.5 Rushing Yards
Tez Johnson OVER 76.5 Receiving Yards
