We’re almost at the finish line (praise be!) as we’ve reached Conference Championship Weekend. Here are my favorite plays for the eight-game slate on Saturday.
Odds Board
Boise State (-2.5) vs. UNLV | Over/Under 59
Oklahoma State (+15) vs. Texas | Over/Under 55
Georgia (-5.5) vs. Alabama | Over/Under 54.5
App State (+6) vs. Troy| Over/Under 52.5
Louisville (+2.5) vs. Florida State | Over/Under 47.5
SMU (+3.5) vs. Tulane | Over/Under 47
Miami OH (+8) vs, Toledo | Over/Under 44
Michigan (-22.5) vs. Iowa | Over/Under 35
Core Plays
WR Ricky White, UNLV – $6,700
WR Jabre Barber, Troy – $4,400
Small core of just two for Saturday — it’s a tough slate, naturally, as these games are closed for a reason and there aren’t any weaklings still in the gene pool to pick on. That translates to “fewer mismatches”. I’m starting lineups (especially cash) with the two obvious WRs and then figuring it out from there. First, let’s discuss why these two are obvious players.
White is a volume monster (50 targets across his last 5 games) playing in a competitive game that features the highest total on the slate. He’s posted an absurd 5.31 yards per route run during that span which is more than double any other WR on this slate other than my other core play. Volume? Check. Efficiency? Holy shit, check. Matchup? Boise ranks 82nd in EPA per pass, 97th in passing explosiveness, and 103rd in PFF’s coverage metric. Check.
Barber is simply way mispriced and provides some easy savings on a slate where it’s difficult to find cheap targets for the most part. He’s averaging 15.3 DK PPG and is priced about $1,500 too low at least. He has 41 targets across his last 5 games, which is 10 more than any other Troy WR, so naturally he’s a great look in cash and is fine in all formats. His 3.41 yards per route run in that span is very encouraging.
Priority Plays
QB Jayden Maiava, UNLV – $6,800
This is the toughest QB slate I can remember in quite some time, so I don’t consider JM as strong of a priority play as the next few names. Still, if QB is that difficult to figure out, why not jam in a guy who leads an explosive passing offense, has a clear stacking option, runs a bit, has a decent matchup, and is playing in a game with the highest total on the slate? Sometimes it’s best not to overthink things, so JM looks great, especially in cash but is fine in all formats. I’m not sure what his ceiling is in this offense that likes the spread it around — he’s reached 23+ DK points just twice all year. Still, his two best games occurred over the last three weeks (26.16 DK points against Air Force, 28.28 DK points against Wyoming, which makes sense considering he’s a green signal-caller improving as he gets more comfortable, and I’d rather be bullish on this offense than not.
RB Kimani Vidal, Troy – $7,000
Vidal has racked up 253-1350-10 on the ground this season and gets a favorable matchup, so he looks great in all formats. App State hasn’t been able to stop the run, ranking 112th in EPA per rush and 103rd in rushing explosiveness. I don’t find this matchup as straightforward as it initially appears, however. The Mountaineers have shored up their rush D lately, allowing just 97.8 rushing YPG and just two rushing TDs across their last four games. Troy’s OL also isn’t dominant, so this is a confusing matchup. Still, I’m siding on the positive side with Vidal as he’s a usage monster, his team is a TD favorite, and App State’s metrics just aren’t good overall and they’ve been gashed more often than not. Troy is the highest-graded running team per PFF that App has seen all year other than UNC (319 rushing yards, 5 TDs in that matchup), so the newfound improvements may or may not last.
RB Ashton Jeanty, Boise State – $8,000
By now I shouldn’t need to expound upon Jeanty’s virtues. He’s posted an absurd 91.7 PFF rushing grade, averaged 4.26 yards after contact per attempt, and has forced 63 missed tackles in 10 games. His biggest concern is health and the workload that gets affected by it. He missed a few games adn returned in Week 12, not looking himself while wearing a huge brace but still managing to be effective. He looked tremendous last week, however, going over 100 yards rushing and receiving while posting 45.5 DK points against Air Force. That’s enough to make me want to pay this price tag. This is a neutral matchup — UNLV’s rush metrics are pretty good (45th in EPA per rush, 40th in rushing success rate) for a MWC team but they also haven’t really played anyone that runs the ball well, other than Michigan (179 rushing yards and 3 TDs on 5.4 YPC). Theyeir DL is a bit soft (114th in stuff rate, 115th in front seven havoc), so the Broncos should pave lanes for Jeanty and company (11th in line yards, 21st in front seven havoc, seventh in power success rate).
RB CJ Baxter, Texas – $5,500
I’m a bit annoyed that Baxter was knocked out of last week’s game as now there’s a pretty high level of uncertainty when he otherwise would’ve been close to a core play. Sark said that he could’ve gone back in the game but it was a blowout (sure was!) and they opted to hold him out. Makes sense to me, so I’m assuming CJ plays, although there’s the worry he’s not at 100%. I’ve been (mostly successfully) fading Oklahoma State’s defense for a while now, so I want to keep doing that here. I don’t trust Texas’ offense but they realistically should hang a huge number in this game and a full stack of them makes sense. Baxter is the most affordable of the options. The Cowboys rank 102nd in EPA per play and 128th in explosiveness (123rd in rushing explosiveness) so they don’t really have any business being in a championship game, but here we are.
WR Xavier Worthy, Texas – $6,200
Speaking of Texas players, Worthy also looks like a great option. He’s been targetted 53 times across his last five games alone and is a high-volume player with slate-breaking spread playing in a mismatch. The Cowboys are especially brutal against the pass (109th in EPA per pass, 133rd in passing explosiveness) and that final metrics paints a clear picture for a Worthy smash spot. I’ve thought that plenty of times before only for Worthy to come short of expectations, but definitely want to be bullish on him again this week.
WR Brennan Presley ($5,500), Leon Johnson III ($5,000), and Rashod Owens ($4,800)
Texas has an elite rush defense (eighth in EPA per rush, seventh in rushing success rate, sixth in rushing explosiveness, sixth in line yards, fourth in power success rate) so I’ll mostly be fading Ollie Gordon. I still don’t think he’s fully healthy, had a dud against a terrible rush D, and then paid off big time in a crazy OT game that likely won’t repeat itself. The Longhorns are not built like other Big 12 teams and while Ollie could still have a pretty good game, I’m not expecting a monster outing to pay off his exorbitant cost. Instead, I’d prefer to target OK State’s WRs as I expect the Pokes to be playing from behind.
Presley is far too cheap and has 17+ DK points in six of his last seven games, so he’s a near-lock in cash. Johnson and Owens are both playing a ton and getting targetted a lot (Owens 44, Johnson 43 across the last 5 games) and are fine in all formats. This team has three of the five most-targetted WRs since Week 9 and yet they’re all priced in the gutter, so all of them make for clear value plays.
Secondary Plays
QB Kevin Jennings, SMU – $6,400
Preston Stone is out for the year so in steps Jennings for the AAC Championship game. This offense is a wagon (14th in EPA per play, ninth in explosiveness, averaged 41.8 PPG) and I haven’t been shy about saying that I simply don’t think Stone is very good at playing football, so there’s a chance there’s not a huge falloff here. Tulane’s defense is pretty good as no opponent other than Ole Miss has scored over 28 points, but it’s better against the rush (20th in rushing success rate) than the pass (88th in passing success rate). Tulsa, North Texas, and Memphis all threw for 321+ yards against this defense. It’s hard to know what to expect from Jennings — he was listed as a dual-threat and the staff is talking about including packages they used with Nick Marshall at Auburn, so we could see some rushing attempts. He doesn’t come across as a rushing superstar to me but any rushing is a bonus. SMU’s talent is absurd at WR so they should still move the ball, and you don’t have to stack him, so Jennings comes across as an appealing but high-risk play best suited for GPPs.
QB Gunnar Watson, Troy – $6,000
Watson rarely has a ceiling game (one outing with 25+ DK points all year) and it may not come here against an App State defense that is much better against the pass than the rush. Still, App State was torched through the air earlier in the year by ULM (268 passing yards, 4 TDs) and Coastal Carolina (373 passing yards, 2 TDs) and hasn’t had a ton of difficult matchups, so maybe the defense as a whole just isn’t very good? They’ve played fine lately so I don’t think Watson goes off but he’s still viable in all formats at a super cheap price considering he has 20+ DK points in four of his last five games.
QB Quinn Ewers, Texas – $8,500
QB Jalen Milroe, Alabama – $9,000
These are my preferred pay-up options — Finn ($7,800) and Pratt ($8,000) are both fine in the mid-range but I don’t find them to have much separation over the cheapo options. Ewers has been a fantasy disaster and hasn’t reached 20 DK points in a game since Week 5, and I think he’s pretty overrated as a player and he doesn’t run much while having generally low passing volume. Still, Oklahoma State could get absolutely housed in this contest if Texas brings its A game (always a big if), so Ewers is fine in GPPs. Milroe has been a man-possessed lately but gets a huge step up in competition. I mostly find his price tag unplayable, but UGA has had some issues against the run and Milroe could separate himself from the other QBs with another strong day on the ground, as has become commonplace with him and could be more needed than ever with McClellan ailing.
RB Peny Boone, Toledo – $7,700
I’m conflicted with Boone this week. Overall I won’t have a ton of this game, but think Boone is my preferred target if I play a one-off. He has 27.5+ DK points in three straight games and 24.6+ in 5 of his last 6. The reason why I’m conflicted is that the lone miss came against Miami, who held him to 17-73-0 and 7.3 DK points. Miami has a nasty defense and they could shut down Boone again, but I can’t help but notice Toledo’s huge advantages in the trench metrics (13th to 87th in line yards, 43rd to 118th in stuff rate, 10th to 71st in power success rate).
RB Makhi Hughes, Tulane – $6,400
RB Trey Benson, Florida State – $6,900
RB George Holani, Boise State – $6,300
RB Rashad Amos, Miami – $6,200
This is a terrific RB slate and all of these four options are viable.
Hughes sees 20+ touches just about every game and is therefore viable in all formats while looking especially appealing in cash. My worry is that a lot of those touches don’t go very far — Tulane isn’t a good rushing team (105th in EPA per rush, 110th in rushing success rate, 108th in rushing explosiveness) and he racked up many of his big games against bad competition. Then again, that was my reasoning last week and he crushed UTSA. SMU ‘s metrics are fantastic against the rush (11th in rushing success rate, 17th in stuff rate) but they also haven’t played a ton of teams of Tulane’s caliber.
Benson should continue to see high-leverage looks now that Jordan Travis is out. He’ll be the focal point of the offense, although Louisville is nasty against the rush (13th in EPA per rush, fourth in line yards, eighth in stuff rate).
Holani will share carries and had a dud last week with Jeanty back closer to 100%, so I’m inclined to fade him. That being said, he’s cheap for a guy who has 26+ DK points in each of his three previous games before the aforementioned dud. Amos is entirely TD-dependent and gets a tough matchup against a good Toledo defense that has the highest defensive SP+ grade. Still, Miami pretty much only runs the ball with Gabbert out and the Rockets can be had on the ground (63rd in EPA per rush, compared to 13th in EPA per pass). GPPs only for both.
WR Chris Brazzell II, Tulane – $5,400
I expect Brazzell to be extremely popular this week as his pricing is off. With their other two WRs hurt, Brazzell has exploded for 12-196-3 over the last two weeks. It looks like Keys is still out but teammate Jha’Quan Jackson ($4,500) is probable, so Brazzell may not dominate targets like he has the last two weeks. Tulane typically spreads the ball around and I almost never play their WRs, but it’s easy to talk yourself into him. SMU’s secondary is really good (11th in passing success rate) but they can be beaten for big plays (95th in passing explosiveness). GPPs only. Jackson also makes sense in GPPs.
WR Chris Lewis, Troy – $4,700
Lewis is a GPP-only target as he has 10 touchdowns this season on just 29 receptions. He has a massive 22.5 aDOT and has been a bigger part of the offense lately, handling at least five targets in each of his last five games.
WR Kaedin Robinson, App State – $5,000
This offense typically likes to spread the ball around a lot, but Robinson has been the WR1 this season and has 53-717-10 on the year. Aguilar has led a prolific passing offense and Robinson could still produce despite the very difficult matchup with Troy. I’d consider him in GPPs only as you’ll likely need a touchdown to hit value. He’s seen at least six targets in each of his last four games.
WR Javon Tracy, Miami OH – $3,500
Tracy has 5-123-0 against Buffalo and 6-70-0 against Ball State across his last two matchups as Miami’s WR1, and he’s priced near the basement — so of course he’s intriguing. Those have both come with typical WR1 Gage Larvadain out of the lineup, however, and there’s a chance Gage returns. Even if he does return, it’s sounding less likely that he’s at 100%, so Tracy could still pay off this price tag. If we get confirmation that Gage is out, Tracy becomes the top value play on the slate. He’s still a bit volatile considering Toledo is really good against the pass and Miami rarely throws the ball, but he’s still managed 14 targets across his last two games.
WR AD Mitchell, Texas – $5,700
WR JT Sanders, Texas – $3,700
I’ll say it again — all Texas players look good this week, and here are some more options if you’re stacking. They’re also fine as one-offs. Mitchell is coming off two duds so he could go under-owned but has three straight 15+ DK point games before that. Sanders hasn’t done anything in quite some time but could realistically bounce back with a big game here if he’s recovered from injury enough to squash a soft matchup. He’s one of the most talented TEs in the country, after all, and is priced near the min.
WR Corey Thompson Jr., UNLV – $3,000
The freshman came out of nowhere to post 3-50-1 last week. He played 34 pass snaps in that game after being on the field for 17 pass snaps the week prior, so his playing time is headed in the right direction. Will the playing time continue? Who knows, but they need someone to help take the heat off White and Thompson is likely on the field a fair amount on Saturday and is listed at min price.
Addison Ostrenga, Iowa – $3,400
He’s an Iowa tight end and is cheap, so he can fill lineups. Has three double-digit DK performances in his last four games.
