There’s a lovely 10-game Black Friday slate to look forward to and I have my top plays ready for consumption. This isn’t my favorite slate as there are a ton of options to choose from but little separates them. It’ll be a shorter preview for this slate as I’m spending most of my time on Saturday’s main slate, so let’s skip the odds board and get straight to the plays.
Core Plays
QB DeQuann Finn, Toledo – $8,300
RB Blake Watson, Memphis – $7,300
WR Luther Burden III, Missouri – $7,600
WR Jalen Royals, Utah State – $6,400*
Finn gets a dream matchup against CMU (133rd in EPA per play defensively), Watson has been super consistent and faces a bad Temple defense (121st in EPA per play), and Burden is one of the best WRs in college football and should smash this Arkansas secondary (129th in passing explosiveness). Royals is averaging 21.9 DK PPG and has a cake matchup against New Mexico (128th in EPA per play, 131st in success rate defensively). You could make the case that Royals should be the only core WR because they’re comparable players from a production standpoint but Royals is cheaper while arguably having the better matchup.
*The asterisk with Royals is that both of his QBs are hurt and its unsure who will be throwing him the rock, which is obviously a huge concern. If either Legas or Hillstead plays, I’m locking in Royals, but if they don’t I’d consider moving off him while noting he’d still be viable.
Priority Plays
QB Cooper Legas, Utah Stae – $6,300
Legas would be a core play for me if he was healthy. Unfortunately, he isn’t after leaving last week’s game and not returning. If we get certifiable information that he’s playing, he’ll be in my lineups. McCae Hillstead ($5,900) is fine if he starts, too. If both are out, Levi Williams ($5,400) is viable as the rare third-string QB who has a fair amount of experience, and he can run a bit in a plus matchup.
RB Peny Boone, Toledo – $7,700
Boone is fine in all formats and should destroy this terrible CMU defense. I’m mostly opting for Finn solo as that’s my preferred way to play Toledo, but Boone could go for 100 yards and 3 TDs to little surprise as his team is a huge favorite.
RB Mark Fletcher, Miami – $6,700
RB Emaini Bailey, TCU – $6,900
RB George Holani, Boise State – $6,300
RB Makhi Hughes, Tulane – $5,900
RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt, New Mex – $6,000
RB Kye Robichaux, BC – $5,500
RB Gavin Sawchuk, Oklahoma – $5,500
Yeah, there are a million RBs to choose from on this slate. I could make a strong case for each one. I’ll sum it up by saying that all of these guys are viable and project for close to the same production. It all depends on lineup construction and salary regarding which one you play. Watson and Boone are correctly priced up as the highest RBs, but there still isn’t much separating them between anyone on this list. If you asked me which one in particular I’m enamored with, I’d struggle mightily to come up with an answer. That’s not a cop-out — it’s an honest assessment of what we’re dealing with on this slate. Prioritize lineup construction over splitting hairs.
Secondary Plays
QB Brady Cook, Mizzou – $8,100
QB Jackson Arnold, Oklahoma – $7,800
QB Frank Harris, $8,600
QB Seth Henigan, Memphis – $8,600
QB Michael Pratt, Tulane – $8,200
QB KJ Jefferson, Arkansas – $7,300
Any of these QBs are fine. Cook is playing at less than 100% but he runs a bit and gets a soft matchup. I’m assuming Gabriel is out due to a concussion which makes Arnold viable in all formats, but I don’t love either. Still fine. Harris has been bad this year but just exploded for 63.64 DK points against a terrible USF defense. He probably doesn’t do hat again against Tulane but could still pay off his price. Henigan is fine in cash in a great matchup against Temple (133rd in EPA per pass, 128th in passing success rate). Pratt and Jefferson both run a bit and could pay off their price point at a reduced cost. Overall, there are a ton of viable QB options and I’m deciding to mostly run with Finn in a great matchup while checking the news for Utah State’s QB situation.
RB AJ Green, Arkansas – $4,100
RB Isaiah Augustave, Arkansas – $4,000
These are the last two standing in Arkansas’ backfield after Dubinion and Rocket both went down due to injury. Arkansas can’t block, these two will split carries with KJ, and Mizzou has a decent rush defense, so I’m not in love with either. Still, they’re super cheap and could pay off as a lineup filler.
WR Joshua Cephus, UTSA – $6,500
Cephus is the clea WR1 for this offense and the way to attack this Tulane defense is through the air as they rank 83rd in EPA per pass and 106th in passing success rate while being tough against the run (20th in EPA per rush, 25th in line yards). Clear pass funnel defense meets productive, target-hog WR at a reduced price? Yummy.
WR Dante Wright, Temple – $4,00
I’m a longtime Wright stan so naturally I have interest at an absurd price. He’s coming off a 29.6 DK point game (6-146-1 receiving) and has 3 straight games with a TD. His team should be playing from behind and Memphis’ defense has looked mighty sus (110th in passing success rate), so this is an easy play if you need a price saver.
WR Roc Taylor, Memphis – $6,300
Great matchup against the nation’s second-worst pass defense in terms of EPA per play. Taylor is too cheap as DK hates him, but it makes no sense unless you think this is such a blowout that Taylor doesn’t get a ton of work. His teammate Blankumsee ($6,200) is also viable.
WR Micah Davis, Utah State – $5,100
This one depends on who is at QB for Utah State. If it’s Legas, I’m double-stacking. If it’s Hillstead, I’m less confident. If it’s Williams, I’m probably off Davis other than as a GPP dart. I can’t overemphasize how big the Utah State QB health situation is on this slate.
WR Theo Wease, Mizzou – $5,600
High-variance GPP player who could pay off as Arkansas simply loves to surrender big passing plays, and he could be a nice pivot off Burden.
