The title feels like an intro in and of itself, so let’s just get down to it.
Lines
SCAR @ Vandy (+13.5/41.5)
UT v OU (-2.5/72)
VT @ UNC (-4/59)
NC St @ UVA (-8.5/59.5)
UF @ TAMU(+6.5/57)
Duke @ Cuse (+2.5/51.5)
UT @ UGA (-12.5/43)
TT @ Iowa St (-12.5/64.5)
UTSA @ BYU (-35/63)
Ark @ Auburn (-13/47.5)
K St @ TCU (-8.5/50)
Pitt @ BC (+6/44)
QB
Right off the top, there are some significant decisions to be made between the three elite fantasy QBs of this slate in Zach Wilson (9500), Sam Ehlinger (9200), and Spencer Rattler (8900). The Red River Shootout is likely to be just that – a point-scoring bonanza – with a 72 point O/U this week due to some egregiously poor tackling and soft defense by both teams to start the season. Both offenses run through their QBs, and while Ehlinger possesses the rushing upside, Rattler saves you a few hundred with his lower price tag. Spencer and Sam are in smash spots, and it’s going to be hard to get off of these guys despite the heavy ownership they’ll assuredly garner. I’m picking Rattler of the two, as I don’t think we’ve seen his ceiling game yet. That could be this week. You can always differentiate elsewhere in your lineup, and that’s mostly what I’ll be looking to do…. Zach Wilson makes for an alluring pivot in larger field tournaments given his prohibitive price tag and lack of brand name recognition. He’s gone for 37+ points each of the past two weeks despite leading in blowouts, so BYU’s -35 point spread doesn’t eliminate him from consideration by any means. Ultimately, I’m more likely to side with the plays in the more competitive, back and forth matchup…. Going with 2 of the Top Tier QBs is manageable this week in tournaments, and I think others will try it with Rattler and Ehlinger. Almost no one will try it with Wilson and either Sam or Spence, which will be a unique way to differentiate in large field GPPs.
With a Superflex spot still to fill, I’m generally bypassing the next range of QBs. For what it’s worth, I’m plugging in a QB at SFlex 9 times out of 10. On slates with more elite skill position players, going with only 1 QB can certainly be a viable tournament strategy. This isn’t that slate…. People will play Kyle Trask (8500), but that’s not something you’ll ever find me doing…. Max Duggan (7300) paid off for myself and others in a big way at a cheap price tag last week. He’s more appropriately priced now, and I expect him to be a popular pairing with Rattler or Ehlinger. I’ll have some exposure due to his rushing ability. Having said that, he’s surrounded by prime potential pivot plays in Brock Purdy (7400) and Kellen Mond (7200). These two should have low ownership given the Duggan sandwich and other compelling plays of the slate. Purdy has looked broken all season, but he traditionally heats up in October and might not get a juicier matchup all season than this one with Texas Tech. Mond showed he can still put up numbers when needed with his 28.6 point spot last week against Bama. Both of these players still have untapped rushing equity.
The 6k range holds my favorite play to pair with one of the top-priced passers. That player is UVA QB Brennan Armstrong (6800), who‘s accounted for 32 rushing attempts and 136 rushing yards over the past two weeks, and now he gets what looks to be a porously leaky defense in NC State. He makes for a strong play in both cash games and tournaments. Sharper players will be on him, but he’ll be overlooked by your more casual competitors…. Collin Hill (6400) is about as cheap as I feel comfortable going at the position and makes for a palpable high floor, low ceiling play against a weaker Vanderbilt team.
RB
Breece Hall (8600) and Deuce Vaughn (7500) should horde the majority of the ownership at the top of the RB field. Coming off of a monster performance, Breece is going to be plenty popular. Regardless, Hall has the better matchup of the two making him my preferred choice if you can manage to squeeze him in. Worth considering, though, is that Hall may still be dealing with an ankle injury he suffered vs. OU, and Deuce is seeing competition for snaps, so I don’t think its a necessity to roster either player in tournament lineups…. Skipping on down, Kevin Harris (6700) is fresh off of a 31 point outburst vs Florida. He’s going to be a solid play vs. Vandy, and I expect him to be a chalky, albeit worthwhile, option in the midrange. Prior to last week, Harris was ceding plenty of snaps to backfield mate Deshaun Fenwick (4300), who is an equally talented runner and better receiver. Fenwick is shaping up as a super sneaky pivot-punt play if you need the savings and believe South Carolina can maintain a hefty lead against Vandy as I do…. Listed as an RB, Ainias Smith (6500) does most of his damage through the air and is in a nice matchup vs. Florida. If you want to differentiate by playing him, you could stack him with Mond and run it back with Kyle Pitts (7200) on the other side…. BYU’s 2-headed monster at RB falls smack dab in the Smith and Harris price range. Surrounded by players on more brand name teams with green matchup numbers in Harris and Smith, Lopini Katoa (6800) and Tyler Allgeier (6600) make for excellent lower owned options. I can’t differentiate in the talent between the two (neither is an exceptional talent), so it seems like truly a coin flip when deciding which to play. As 30-plus point favorites, BYU should be able to run downhill all day long, making Katoa and Allgeier both candidates for a multi-touchdown game. I recommend taking stabs at these two in lineups. Very few lineups will feature both runners, which would make for a very contrarian large field strategy…. I like UVA to score early often against the Wolfpack, leading to Wayne Taulapapa (6200) being a reasonable, yet unsexy play. If you’re fading Armstrong and the passing game, a multi-TD game from Wayne would give you huge leverage on lineups featuring UVA’s passing attack…. I don’t know much about Sean Tucker (6000), but he appears to have seized the lead role for Cuse, and Duke’s defense has appeared plenty soft to start the season. Deon Jackson (4900), on the flip side of that game, is a more gifted player and will likely be gravitated to more in lineups given the cheap price tag. He faces a slightly stiffer matchup, however, putting Tucker in a nice leverage spot if Jackson ends up being chalky.
WR
Shi Smith (7600), Kyle Pitts (7200), and Billy Kemp IV (6000) are all target hogs for their respective teams and are cashing in with huge production. They’ll be cash and tournament game staples for folks, and I won’t talk you out of playing any of them…. I really like a few players in the 5k range. Taj Harris (5500) and Dyami Brown (5600) are both talented downfield threats and are liable to pop off for 125 and 2 scores in any given game. Those are the type of plays I want on my tournament teams. Both are seeing enough volume that they won’t kill you if they fail to hit that mark as well…. Jake Smith (5200) is playing the high-volume Devy Duvernay role this season and looked solid in his first game of the season last week. He’s my favorite Texas pass catcher and profiles to become Ehlinger’s go-to binky when he gets into trouble this season. I want pieces of this OU-UT game, and Smith is one of the only high-floor, high-ceiling ways to do that at WR/RB. I’d be remiss not to mention the top-priced WR on the slate, Gunner Romney (8200). He’s likely to be overlooked given his outlier salary, which makes him worth a gamble in tournaments for that reason alone.
You’re going to need salary savings at WR in tournament lineups this week. The low 4k range is where you’ll find the best of those plays. Theo Wease (4200) hasn’t done anything this year to deserve you clicking on him, but the explosive potential is still there. He can win deep and saves you 3k off of Rambo if you want to stack with Rattler at an affordable salary…. Jalen Wydermyer (4200) may very well end up being Mond’s top target in 2020. Don’t worry about him being a TE. He’s still too cheap…. Anthony Schwartz (4100) appears to be playing the Sammy Watkins role in Chad Morris’s offense for the Tigers located in Alabama. One jet sweep could turn into a 60 yard TD in a flash with his speed. Charlie Kolar (4000) is also seeing the TE price tag bias. He’s more than capable of catching 2 TDs from Purdy and makes for a tantalizing stack option in that regard. Not many people have heard of Lavel Davis Jr. (4000), but he’s a 6’7” starting WR in a game with nearly a 60 point O/U. Davis looks like he was born to catch jump ball touchdowns from Brennan Armstrong. Stack them in GPP tourneys this week and reap the rewards.
Cheers to green screens while watching college football on the big screen!
Find me on Twitter @DW_Clayton
