We first heard this idea on Barton and Bud’s short-lived podcast a while back. Last year, we decided to take the idea and expand on it. We ended up scrapping that idea because of the makeshift college football season, but we didn’t forget about it. Last week, Greg, Kyle, and Brad sat down and knocked out a college football team draft. We each drafted eight teams based on the scoring format below. We’ll keep score during the season and declare a winner in January. With only 4 CFP slots, we had to come up with a strategy to get points in other areas.
Each win = 1 point
Head to head win = 1 bonus point
Conference title appearance = 3 points
Conference championship = 5 points
Bowl win = 3 points
CFP appearance = 8 points
CFP semifinal win = 10 points
CFP national championship = 15 points
Here’s our draft and our analysis.
Greg: I kicked the draft off with the Buckeyes for one simple reason. They have the easiest path to a conference title and a College Football Playoff appearance. I almost pulled the trigger on Oklahoma at 1.01 due to their easy conference and CFP path, and I just missed getting the Sooners with my second pick. With my second pick, I was able to snag the last remaining favorite to win a P5 conference title. I’m not super high on the Ducks, but I like them the best out of the PAC12. On the backside of my turn, I got the North Carolina Tar Heels. If somebody is going to dethrone the Clemson Tigers in the ACC, it’ll be the Tar Heels. In Round 4, I hoped for an Iowa State or LSU to drop, but I settled for Texas A&M. I’m not confident in this pick, but they have an outside chance of taking the SEC crown. While my fifth pick, Coastal Carolina, doesn’t have a real hope of making the CFP. I still can get 11-12 regular season wins and a conference title bonus. A lot like my pick of Texas A&M, my selection of Penn State isn’t a very confident one, but they have a slim chance at a conference title appearance. Grabbing Louisiana in the 7th round pretty much secures me the Sun Belt Champion between them and Coastal Carolina. Obviously, only one of them can win the conference, but both can easily get me 10 plus wins in the regular season. With my last pick, I grabbed the Washington Huskies. I wanted to go the homer route with Notre Dame, but the lack of a conference title game heavily caps their upside. Washington was one of the last remaining P5 teams that I felt had a chance of securing a conference title appearance.
Brad: I wanted to pick either third or first, but I was stuck in the middle of each round. Of course, that increased the probability that I would get sniped. However, I was able to start with Clemson and Oklahoma, my first- and third-ranked teams for this exercise. I think those two teams have as good a chance as any at not only making the CFP but winning it. After missing out on North Carolina, I was happy to settle for Cincinnati. I don’t think they’ll be a CFP team because I think they’ll lose to Indiana and/or Notre Dame, but they should win every other game on their schedule and get me points for a conference championship. Just in case there is any funny business in the AAC championship game, I added UCF as my seventh team. With that same train of thought, I was able to pair Iowa State with Oklahoma, and hopefully have both contestants in the Big 12 championship game. After getting sniped on Coastal Carolina, I switched gears and decided to take teams with a chance of winning their division and making an appearance in their conference championship game (Wisconsin and Miami). I considered several different teams with my eighth pick. I crossed out Arizona State because I’m not sure how the recruiting violations will affect them this year. I crossed out Notre Dame because they can’t win a conference championship this season. When it comes to independents, I actually looked harder at Liberty than Notre Dame because the Flames have arguably the easiest schedule in football, but their ceiling is capped in this contest. Ultimately, I went with Iowa. Between Wisconsin and Iowa, I should have the Big 10 West champ with a shot at head-to-head points versus Greg and Ohio State in December.
Kyle: I took Alabama and Georgia with my first two picks, two teams that I believe are most likely to battle for the SEC championship and a berth (or two) in the CFP. Both teams have two of the top four shortest odds to win the CFP. Georgia’s regular-season win total on Draft Kings is 10.5, while Alabama’s is 11.5. I considered taking Oklahoma with one of these two picks but elected to go with the SEC powers. I have some buyer’s remorse about that choice.
Things thinned out with my third and fourth picks, but I elected to roll with LSU and Florida. Would I have been wise to avoid using my first four picks on SEC teams? Maybe. This is my first time drafting in a contest like this, and I didn’t thoroughly plan out a strategy; instead, I shot from the hip. LSU’s RSW total is listed at eight wins, and they are 11th favorites to hoist the CFP trophy. Florida is also listed as 11th favorites, and they have a RSW total of nine. If Alabama and Georgia don’t represent their respective divisions in Atlanta, I think these two are most likely to get there, and they would have a shot at a CFP berth (or two).
I desperately wanted to take Wisconsin, but Brad nabbed them 14th overall. I pivoted and went with two PAC12 contenders in USC and Utah. The Trojans could have too much firepower for their leaguemates, and I think they are game to win 9-10 games, assuming their defense can hold up. Utah, much like Wisconsin, is a steady eddy. They will play disciplined, balanced football, and while they aren’t a sexy pick, I am generally comfortable taking a high floor, low ceiling team as I near the end of my choices.
With my final pair of picks, I took my first two G5 teams of the draft. Both Boise and Marshall are the favorites to win their conferences. I planned to take Boise and UCF, but Brad sniped me again by taking the Gus Bus at twentieth overall. I don’t think any of the G5 teams have a legitimate chance to make the CFP this year, though I liked Brad taking Cincinnati eighth overall.
I don’t think I did great on this draft. Six of my eight picks comprise two conferences, and two others are locked out of the CFP. Time will tell if I made some serious errors concerning game theory, but perhaps I can rack up some H2H wins, which will end up being a happy accident for me.
