Aside from Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney, every head coaching seat will get warm eventually. How a coach reacts determines whether their seat goes from warm to hot or begins to cool. Let’s take a look at one coach from every Power 5 conference whose seat is hotter entering the 2019 season than it was a year ago. These coaches won’t necessarily be the first to be fired, but they are under some added pressure after an underwhelming season or because their program is gradually trending in the wrong direction. You might be surprised to see some of the names on this list and you might be equally surprised that some of these names survived the 2018 offseason.
ACC
Willie Taggart, Florida State Seminoles
2019 Buyout: $21,995,333
Willie Taggart won’t be fired after just his second season at Florida State, but his seat is already undeniably hot for several reasons. The Seminoles went 5-7 in Taggart’s first season and missed a bowl game for the first time since 1981. Making a bowl game isn’t the be-all, end-all by any means, but Florida State was not competitive in 2018. After one recruiting cycle, they didn’t seem to take many steps to change that.
The offensive line was a complete disaster in 2018. They are wasting a star running back in Cam Akers. Deondre Francois is no longer with the team. They failed to land a quarterback for the second consecutive recruiting cycle. The went into spring practice with one scholarship quarterback before winning the Alex Hornibrook Sweepstakes.
While all of this sounds terrible for ‘Noles fans, let’s end on a high note. Taggart convinced Kendal Briles to leave Houston and join him in Tallahassee giving Florida State the best coordinator hire of the 2018 offseason.
Big 12
Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State Cowboys
2019 Buyout: $16,250,000
The Big 12 is a surprisingly stable conference. The top six teams all return their head coaches and the bottom four teams all have first-year head coaches this season. If tasked with picking the first coach to be fired, I’d probably pick one of the new guys – Matt Wells or Neal Brown. However, I keep thinking about Mike Gundy and T. Boone Pickens’ roller-coaster relationship and Pickens’ comments from 2018:
“I’m in this to win a national championship. Turning 90 as I did last May only fuels that fire. Time for me is winding down, but I remain an optimist that Mike Gundy can and will deliver on a national championship. The sooner the better. At 90, I don’t buy green bananas.”
Gundy has flirted with other schools recently and his relationship with Oklahoma State’s most famous booster is well-documented. To be honest, those comments above sound more likely to come from a team’s owner than a school’s booster.
Gundy and the Cowboys haven’t finished ahead of the rival Oklahoma Sooners in the standings since 2011. Coming off a 7-6 season in 2018, how much longer will T. Boone Pickens Oklahoma State be happy with a Big 12 runner-up ceiling?
Big Ten
Lovie Smith, Illinois Fighting Illini
2019 Buyout: $12,626,991
Lovie Smith was a very intriguing hire back in 2016, bringing NFL experience and success to Champaign, but he hasn’t lived up to expectations. His overall record improved in 2018, but he’s yet to win more than 2 conference games in a season. Part of that improvement should be attributed to the offense nearly doubling their points per game versus conference opponents in 2018. However, the Illini defense allowed 45.6 points per game in conference play, including 50+ points in half of their losses. Smith announced that he will call the defense in 2019 – taking full responsibility for the defense in a last-ditch effort to turn things around.
From the outside looking in, there has been a weird vibe around the University of Illinois this offseason. Several players, including Jeff Thomas and Matt Fink, either committed or were rumored to have committed to Illinois only to go back on their commitment this offseason.
Smith’s buyout could be a potential hangup if the university decides to move on, but after the 2019 season, it drops from roughly $12.5 million to $4 million.
PAC-12
Clay Helton, USC Trojans
2019 Buyout: Likely between $10,000,000 and $15,000,000 (USC is a private school and buyout info isn’t readily available)
Clay Helton’s first two seasons were pretty close to where Trojans’ fans expect to be. He won 21 games, a Rose Bowl, and a PAC-12 Championship. Then he (mis)guided USC to a 5-7 record and their first losing season since 2000. There were times in 2018 where Helton and his staff seemed to have no idea what was going on or how to communicate with their players. He seemed to be in over his head. He seemed to have lost control. It would seem rash to fire a coach after one down season, even at USC, but it’s surprising that he survived the offseason.
Recruiting is down by USC’s standards. They finished with the 19th-ranked class in 2019, according to 247sports. However, after two huge Transfer Portal wins (Bru McCoy and Chris Steele), that class would be closer to 14th now.
Looking for something to spark the team, Helton hired Kliff Kingsbury as Offensive Coordinator. At the time of the hiring, Kingsbury looked like a genius for taking the job. Just make sure that the offense isn’t the problem and then he’d be the top candidate to replace Helton after just one season. As everyone knows, Kingsbury made the unexpected jump to the NFL after just a few weeks at USC. Obviously determined to hire a Mike Leach disciple, Helton turned to Graham Harrell.
It seems that Clay Helton is the root of the problem, so a new Offensive Coordinator isn’t going to fix everything, especially if Helton doesn’t stay out of the way. On top of that, Helton has to maneuver through a brutal 2019 schedule.
SEC
Matt Luke, Ole Miss Rebels
2019 Buyout: $0
Matt Luke was exactly what Ole Miss needed when Hugh Freeze was unceremoniously dismissed before the 2017 season. Luke, a player’s coach, and former Rebels offensive lineman, was able to keep the majority of the team together throughout the turmoil. However, he seemed like a stop-gap option from the beginning. Now that most of the sanctions are over and the bowl ban is lifted, we will find out how Ole Miss really feels about Matt Luke. Understandably, he hasn’t been competitive in a tough SEC West. Without a buyout, will Ole Miss remain patient?
Luke is still searching for the right combination of coordinators. His first hire, Offensive Coordinator Phil Longo seemed exciting, at least in theory. However, no one seemed disappointed when he left for North Carolina after two seasons. The biggest issues seem to lie on the defensive side of the ball, and as a result, Defensive Coordinator Wesley McGriff was fired after just one season. New Offensive Coordinator Rich Rodriguez will be responsible for keeping the offense running smoothly, and Mike MacIntyre will be tasked with improving the defense. Will this new combo plus rFR QB Matt Corral and FR RB Jerrion Ealy be enough to turn things around?
Because of his $0 buyout, Matt Luke’s seat likely starts to sizzle before any other name above. Between Rodriguez and MacIntyre, is it possible that Luke hired his successor?
