Aside from Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney, every coach’s seat will get warm eventually. How those coaches react determines what happens next. Let’s take a look at one coach from every Group of 5 conference whose seat is hotter entering the 2019 season than it was a year ago. These coaches won’t necessarily be the first to be fired, but they are under some pressure either after an underwhelming season or because their program is trending in the wrong direction. You might be surprised to see some of the names on this list and you might be equally surprised that some of these names survived the 2018 offseason.

AAC

Randy Edsall, UConn

2019 Buyout: $0

In 2017, UConn brought Randy Edsall back for a second stint as head coach. Both sides were hoping to relive the success Edsall had transitioning the Huskies from the FCS on the Big East back in the BCS era. Neither the university nor the coach has been that fortunate. Edsall has a 4-20 record this time around and UConn has already dropped out of the AAC. The status of their football program is up in the air, but there was some talk of UConn dropping back to the FCS level.

UConn had one of the worst defensive seasons in college football history in 2018. That’s not where you want to be in the AAC – a conference known for offense. Unless Edsall can pull a 180, 2019 will be his last season in Storrs.

CUSA

Frank Wilson, UTSA

2019 Buyout: $375,000

In his first season, Frank Wilson delivered UTSA their first bowl appearance, winning five conference games along the way. Since then, he’s been backpedaling at a high rate. The Roadrunners won three conference games in 2017 and just two in 2018. It’s never a good look to be more successful with someone else’s players than with your own. There are zero winnable non-conference games on the schedule in 2019, so Wilson will need to be more successful in conference play where he’s been trending the wrong way.

MAC

Mike Neu, Ball State

2019 Buyout: $980,300

Mike Neu led his alma mater to one conference win in 2016. He failed to win a game against a MAC opponent in 2017. He improved to three conference wins in 2018. Can he continue to improve in 2019 without his QB, Riley Neal, who grad-transferred to Vandy?

MWC

Bob Davie, New Mexico

2019 Buyout: $900,000

Bob Davie is a sitting duck at New Mexico. He enters the 2019 season coming off back to back seasons with only one conference win. He would already be gone, but New Mexico has so many financial issues that they couldn’t afford his $1,200,000 buyout last season. That buyout only drops to $900,000 after 2019 so he might be around a little while longer, but the ending of this story is inevitable.

Sun Belt

Matt Viator, Louisiana-Monroe

2019 Buyout: $750,000

Matt Viator took over ULM in 2016 and managed just 4 wins each of his first two seasons. 2018’s 6-6 record showed slight improvement, but the Warhawks were not invited to a bowl game even though they were eligible. Obviously, we don’t have enough bowls! Viator was given an extension after his second 4-8 season and promised that the school would take the necessary steps to increase the athletic budget to catch up with the rest of the Sun Belt Conference. A new, very green athletic director was hired in June 2019. The News-Star portrays the A.D. as a wildcard so it’s possible that he decides to hire his own head football coach.

If I had to guess which of these coaches is the first to be relieved of their responsibilities, I’d go with Randy Edsall. With UConn dropping out of the AAC after the season and conferences like the MAC and C-USA already saying that they are not interested in adding the Huskies, there’s no reason for the school to continue paying a losing head coach over $1 million a year.