Florida vs Miami (Orlando) 7:00 EST
Spread: Florida -7.5 (-3.5 1H)
Total: 47 (23.5 1H)
College football kicks off with a historic rivalry game on Saturday. These two have only met six times since the year 2001, and Miami has won five of the last six.
Florida finished the 2018 season on a real hot streak. Their offense came to life as they scored 35, 41, and 41 against their last three FBS opponents. The Gators return their quarterback and pretty much the entirety of their offensive skill guys. Feleipe Franks was excellent down the stretch and made massive strides as the season progressed. The good news for Gators fans is that Dan Mullen has stated that Franks improved more this off-season than he did for the entirety of last season. If that’s the case, the Florida offense should be dangerous this season. They have a stable of talented running backs, and they have a relatively unproven, yet a supremely diverse and talented group of pass-catchers. Like any offense, they will go as far as their offensive line will take them. In 2018, Florida had an elite offensive line. They ranked in the top 25 in every advanced metric that I track, sans one. Unfortunately, they must replace four of last year’s five starting offensive linemen. It’s rarely easy to replace multiple players that are now playing in the NFL.
Miami’s defense ranked highly across all major categories in 2018. They were nearly impossible to throw on, and they weren’t a slouch against the run. Miami’s deepest position is their defensive line, where the staff feels good about rotating 10-12 guys this season. Behind them, they have a linebacking core that has seemingly been on the field since Too Live Crew was taking the nation by storm. The front seven is going to be good this season. The biggest area of concern for the Canes is in the secondary, where they must replace three starters from last year. While they are thin at safety, it’s easy to be very optimistic about the potential of Gurvan Hall and Amari Carter. They are both Sunday players. They know what they have in one corner, Trejan Bandy, but they are going to rely on some young players to contribute alongside him. While they are talented, it’s a risky proposition to trot out young players at corner, especially in a scheme like Diaz’s that will attack and put them in positions where they must win their one-on-one battles.
The Canes had a hotly contested battle at quarterback that recently resulted in the announcement that redshirt freshman Jarren Williams is QB1. While Williams is a very gifted player that is reported to have a cool, even-keeled demeanor, this is a big stage. Navigating the emotion of his game will be a challenge. However, the more significant challenge may be figuring out how to crack the nut that is the Gators’ defense. Much like the Florida offense, Miami returns a bunch of players at their skill spots, but their offensive line needed to be rebuilt. The offensive line includes two freshmen tackles among five players who have started 30 games combined. They will be blocking for a solid group of running backs, but a running back will only go as far as the hogs allow. Six of Miami’s top seven pass-catchers return, which should help facilitate the transition at quarterback.
On defense, the Gators return three defensive linemen that have played for a combined 122 games in college! Florida ranked 20th nationally last season in sacks, totaling 37. The linebackers lack experience, but I’m optimistic that they are going to be a terrific group again. Behind them, Florida has arguably the top cover corner duo in college football. Marco Wilson and CJ Henderson were both fantastic as true freshmen in 2017. Wilson was lost for the year early in 2018, but Henderson balled out. They are woefully thin in the secondary, but that isn’t likely to be a significant factor in this game. Overall, Florida’s defense was erratic in 2018. They flashed games and moments where they were elite, and they would inexplicably follow that up by cratering in the middle of the season.
To me, this game comes down to each team’s offensive line and quarterbacks. I don’t think either side is going to hold up in the trenches against their opponent’s defensive line. Miami will have a true freshman playing in his first game going up against a guy that will be playing in the NFL in a calendar year. Behind him, we’ve got a Miami quarterback that has thrown three passes in college thus far, and he’s going to be challenged by two elite defensive backs. While I’m not a huge fan of Franks, he undoubtedly is the easier of the quarterbacks to trust in this game. He’s played in and won big games in college. His last time out, he orchestrated a beauty against Michigan’s top-five defense. The Gators put up 41 points in the route of Big Blue. I believe that it’s highly unlikely that their offensive line will be ready to maul a very talented Canes front as they did in that game. I trust the Gators offense and Dan Mullen more than I trust the Canes and Diaz right now. Miami OC Dan Enos had this to say recently, “We’re very, very young offensively… Hopefully, we’ll be a team that continues to get better and better and better as the season goes on.” I think they are a team that should improve as they get additional reps. I think it’s foolish to assume they are going to be ready on Saturday. The last time Todd Grantham faced Dan Enos’ offense, they limited them to 221 total yards and 21 points. That was in 2017 when they coached for Mississippi State and Arkansas, respectively.
The spread opened with Florida as 7.5 point favorites. It was bet down to 7, as rumors of looming Florida suspensions were swirling. We are to believe that suspensions will be forthcoming for the Gators, but sources say that it may just be some rotational defensive linemen and won’t significantly impact them in this game. The total opened at 49 before settling for a bit at 50.5. I bet that under there. I was attempting to be patient in waiting for a 51, but it never came, and I was fortunate to hit it at its peak. It’s now been bet down to 47 or 47.5 at most shops. There are some key totals numbers that the total has now passed over. As such, I think it could be prudent to consider betting the first half under instead. I primarily see 23.5 as the number, but it’s possible that we could see a 24 surface before kickoff. I believe there is very little value in the spread and there is slightly more to be found in the totals. The first half number is advantageous because there could be rust for both offenses, plus you avoid the potential of overtime in a game that has a one score spread. Miami’s offense was genuinely abysmal in the first halves of games last year, and we will hope that trend carries over into this game. The pace should be very deliberate, which is a must-have if considering going under on a college total in the 40’s.
Prediction: Florida 27 – Miami 16
Pick(s): First Half Under 23.5 (Full Game Under at 48 or better)
