Arizona @ Hawaii 10:00 EST
Spread: Arizona -11
Total: 74
Whether you play college fantasy football, gamble, or are a general college football fan, Arizona’s offense disappointed you in 2018. The year prior, Khalil Tate was inexplicably relegated to backup duty by the previous coaching staff to start the season. Once he got his shot, he was one of the most electrifying runners to play quarterback in several years. In 2018, he was a bonafide preseason Heisman candidate, and he was the consensus number one overall fantasy draft pick. Unfortunately, the combination of the new coaching staff and the ankle injury that Tate suffered contributed to him being a bust. The staff knows how to deploy a player with his skill set. They coached Barrett Hundley at UCLA and saw him do big numbers. Tate’s now healthy, and I think we are more likely to see his 2017 version then we are to see a repeat of 2018. The Cats return three offensive linemen from last year that comprised an excellent group. They will need to replace their left guard and right tackle. They have solid depth and proven talent at running back. The cupboard is bare in the wide receivers room. While I didn’t think highly of last year’s guys, sometimes the devil you know is better than the one you don’t. In this matchup, I don’t think they are going to need many heroes to catch passes; the success will be there for the taking.
Hawaii returns a ton of players from their squad that went 7-7 last year. Much of the defense returns, but it remains to be seen whether or not that is a good thing or a bad thing. Experience is rarely bad, but they did rank in the bottom 25 in every major adjusted defensive category that I pay attention to. Bill Connelly of ESPN (!) shared these nuggets about Hawaii’s defense in 2018, “It also got them gashed a lot. They gave up nearly two gains per game of 40-plus yards (122nd in FBS in the category) and ranked 111th in marginal explosiveness allowed. They were equal-opportunity, too: 111th in rushing marginal explosiveness, 102nd vs. the pass. Technically, they improved overall — from 123rd to 118th in Def. S&P+ — but only because the bar was so low. They did, after all, give up 29.6 points per game in wins.” When you look at how the good offenses faired against them last year, just about every one of ’em scored 40+ points. I would propose that while they will likely be a better group in 2019, this iteration of Arizona’s offense will be better than any team they faced last year. Hawaii’s aggression will probably create some negative plays for them in this game; however; against players with Tate’s and Taylor’s explosiveness, it could result in more of those infamous 40+ yard gashes.
Arizona’s defense was inexplicably bad last season. The sum was significantly worse than its parts. The main area that you need to be strong against Hawaii is defending the pass. Unfortunately, they ranked in the bottom fifteen nationally in 2018. PJ Johnson was a rock on the interior of the defensive line last year. He is in the NFL now, but they return some talented players, and there is a chance the depth and pass rushers could be improved. I love their linebacking duo of Tony Fields II and Colin Schooler. They both slimmed down this off-season, and I think they will be the leaders of this defense. The secondary gets a talented CB back in Jace Whitaker. He was injured last year and was one of the reasons why the defense was awful. They have improved depth with the newcomers, but not a ton of experience in the secondary. They are probably going to need to play a bunch of guys in an attempt to stay fresh under the barrage of the Hawaiian aerial assault that is forthcoming. Overall, I expect this defense to be better, but it’s worth noting they ranked 105th and 119th in fantasy scoring last season against quarterbacks and wide receivers (Credit to @CFFguys).
Hawaii’s 2018 offense must be looked at in multiple parts. There was the early part of the season where Cole McDonald was healthy, and their competition was weak. McDonald went 122-183-1759-20-1 passing and 45-200-2 rushing before suffering internal organ damage against SJSU. They scored 43, 59, 43, 21, 42, and 44 points in those games. Sure, the competition was really poor, but they were a nasty offense. Check out what McDonald dealt with last season, “First game I strained my MCL, played through that,” McDonald told the Maui News. “First quarter against San Jose State I took a shot to the side. The guy that hit me actually knocked himself out.” McDonald said after the game he went to the hospital for extra tests. “…I had some internal bleeding in my side that didn’t drain out properly. It was all in my scrotum. … I couldn’t walk for about a week. … I played hurt most of the season. It was pretty brutal,” His backup, a true freshman, started against Wyoming and his inexperience coupled with the increase in the quality of their competition led to their offense falling off a cliff. They scored less than 25 points-per-game in the following five games. McDonald is back healthy, and he’s had a full off-season to prepare as the starter. While he loses his stud slotback, John Ursua, he returns his second and third options from last year and benefits from an influx of new blood. Hawaii need not bother trying to run the ball in this game, or any other, as their passing attack appears ready to take another big step forward in 2019.
We’ve got a prolific passing attack for Hawaii that gets to face one of the nation’s worst pass defense from a season ago. On the other side, we’ve got an Arizona offense with tons of speed that forced defenses to make 88 solo tackles last year, No. 1 in all of Power 5 conference football. They spread you out, and then they gash you. As previously noted, Hawaii was amongst the nation’s worst in limiting big plays last year. The most significant mismatch in the game is the Arizona offense against the Hawaii defense. Both defenses are overmatched, but the degree to which Hawaii’s will be is far more significant, in my eyes. Arizona’s team total is listed at 41.5 & 42 at two books that I’ve checked. I believe that they should exceed those numbers by a touchdown. Hawaii gave up an adjusted 41 PPG last year, and as I stated before, the level of offenses they faced was far inferior to a healthy, Tate-led Sumlin offense. I do believe that Hawaii’s offense is built to beat Arizona’s defense. While I’m willing to concede that the Cats will be better, I think it’s naive to expect that Hawaii isn’t going to land some of their haymakers. They are gonna throw the ball relentlessly, probably fifty times this game. Arizona opened as high as -13 in June, but Hawaii has taken the most money since then. I don’t have a strong opinion on the side, I think -13 is a better number than the -10.5 & -11 that I currently see. The total is what interests me. I bet the over 70 in late July when it opened up. It has since been bet up to 74. While that is a significant move, I still believe that the number is a bit short. Arizona should be very near 50 in this one. If they do their part, Hawaii only needs to score in the mid-twenties to cash the ticket. I firmly believe that the Bows can do that and get into the 30s. This game should provide the offensive fireworks that Florida v. Miami game didn’t.
Prediction: Arizona 49 – Hawaii 33
Pick(s): Over 74 (Arizona Team Total Over at 41 or better)
