We are taking a slightly different approach this week and bringing our resident tourney aficionado, Pidge Stefan (@DW_Clayton) into the fold. He will be covering our tourney players, and I will handle your cash game needs in two separate articles. Take a look at my weekly breakdown thread.
If you take the time to read the thread, one consistent theme this weekend is the potential for bad weather. We are cognizant of the forecasts for all of the games on the slates, but per usual with CFB DFS, it pays to stay vigilant on gameday and make any needed substitutions if there is a last-minute cancellation or if the track of the storm changes and you have a WR in the lineup in a monsoon. Stay tuned for tournament advice soon.
Games:
SCAR @ Vandy (+13.5/41.5)
UT v OU (-2.5/72)
VT @ UNC (-4/59)
NC St @ UVA (-8.5/59.5)
UF @ aTm (+6.5/57)
Duke @ Cuse (+2.5/51.5)
UT @ UGA (-12.5/43)
TT @ Iowa St (-12.5/64.5)
UTSA @ BYU (-35/63)
Arky @ Auburn (-13/47.5)
K St @ TCU (-8.5/50)
Pitt @ BC (+6/44)
Quarterbacks:
I’m rolling with a heavy Big 12 contingent, plus Brennan Armstrong. I have no idea why several backup quarterbacks are as expensive as they are on DK? I’m comfortable going with Sam and Spencer as the chalk. It’s less than a FG spread and the highest posted total of the slate with both teams forecasted to score 5 TDs. Brock Purdy hasn’t played as well this season as what we saw from him last season, but this Texas Tech defense is swiss cheese and he can score as a runner as well as thrower. While Armstrong hasn’t been asked to do quite as much as Twerkins was a year ago, the sentiment remains the same. He’s gonna throw it a ton and run around like a wildman. Fortunately, he plays one of the least impressive defenses in his conference in a game that I think has tight, shootout potential. I didn’t use him, but I like Devin Leary in that game for the aforementioned, latter reason. There are a lot of questions marks at QB on this slate. VT, Texas Tech, Kansas State, and UTSA all have injuries or limitations at QB, which add to their risk profiles in cash formats. Several of the other games appear to have some wind and rain, so I feel good about the four guys I’ve used.
Running Backs:
This time I stayed exclusively in the Big 12 and SEC, and I generally tried to go cheap. That is with the exceptions of Najee Harris and Breece Hall who have matchups that I can’t pass on. Bijan Robinson and Zach Evans are hail marys that I threw up in hopes that the elite recruits continue to increase in their involvement in game plans. I feel better about Bijan than Zach, because Johnson is dinged up and Texas likes to use a couple of guys and they face an embarrassingly bad OU defense. Speaking of top FR RBs, Tank Bigsby got involved in Auburn’s gameplan last week and that seems like a good plan for the staff moving forward. They are heavy favorites against the Hogs, so the game script should favorable, as should his ability to contribute as a pass-catcher in a game with miserable weather conditions. Auburn was limited by Georgia’s defense last game, but they may have prophetically showed their hand when they fed Tank as a receiver, as he finished with 7 catches and 68 yards. Isaiah Spiller is dirt cheap this week. He’s taken a backseat to Ainias Smith, primarily due to game script, but he’s the big bull playing a defense that looked deathly afraid of stepping in front of Kevin Harris last game. If Spiller can get past the LOS with some steam, I don’t have confidence in Florida’s willingness to tackle him. I think he’s too steeply discounted this week and is almost a salary saver at $4,400.
Wide Receivers:
I have my receivers that I like and I’m not afraid to ride ‘em. Sometimes for better, sometimes for worse. I’ll stick with both Billy Kemp and Shi Smith in most of my lineups. They are core guys for me this week and require very little additional explanation as to why. Taj Harris remains a player that I believe in, and I think his ability to win deep or turn a short pass into a long one will increase his market share against a Duke defense that is without their top two corners. Zay Flowers has a tough matchup against Pitt, but BC just threw the ball 56 times last game against a worse rush defense and Flowers was targeted 14 times. After he makes a catch, he’s a legitimate threat to score every time. DJ Turner stood in for Jordan Addison last week after he went down with an injury in the first half. Addison averaged 7 catches out of the slot in all three games that he was healthy, and in less than a full game last week, Turner picked up his slack to the tune of 8 grabs for 186 yards. Addison is a game time decision this week, which makes Turner somewhat risky, but at his cost, I’m gambling. I believe he has standalone merit even if Addison plays as well. Dyami Brown has been the alpha for UNC through two games and he’s priced low due to a slow start out of the gates for Howell and this offense. He’s been targeted 17 times in two games, which is the most of any UNC WR by 6. UNC likely will need to look to him this week more often than they have against two weaker opponents thus far. Jaylen Waddle is currently plugged in for me on FD, but I’m gonna be watching the weather more closely there as Oxford appears to be in for a wet day. Even if that’s the case, throw him the ball at the LOS and he will make pulled pork out of the Rebs secondary. Lastly, Jake Smith returned for Texas last week, and I believe he is going to be a nightmare mismatch for the OU slot defender if their plan resembles anything like what we’ve seen them try so far.
DK MAIN:
QB: Brock Purdy ($7,400)
RB: Breece Hall ($8,600)
RB: Bijan Robinson ($3,100)
WR: Shi Smith ($7,600)
WR: Billy Kemp ($6,000)
WR: Taj Harris ($5,500)
FL: Zay Flowers ($5,000)
SF: Brennan Armstrong ($6,800)
QB: Sam Ehlinger ($9,200)
RB: Tank Bigsby ($5,600)
RB: Isaiah Spiller ($4,400)
WR: Shi Smith ($7,600)
WR: Billy Kemp ($6,000)
WR: DJ Turner ($4,700)
FL: Dyami Brown ($5,600)
SF: Brennan Armstrong ($6,800)
DK AFTERNOON:
QB: Brock Purdy ($7,400)
RB: Tank Bigsby ($5,600)
RB: Breece Hall ($8,600)
WR: Zay Flowers ($5,000)
WR: Hunter Long ($5,900)
WR: DJ Turner ($4,700)
FL: George Pickens ($5,500)
SF: Max Duggan ($7,300)
FD MAIN:
QB: Sam Ehlinger ($11,000)
RB: Najee Harris ($10,400)
RB: Zach Evans ($4,700)
WR: Billy Kemp ($6,800)
WR: Jaylen Waddle ($9,800)
WR: Jake Smith ($7,100)
SF: Spencer Rattler ($10,200)
