conspectus
\ kən-ˈspek-təs \
noun
1: a usually brief survey or summary (as of an extensive subject) often providing an overall view
Each week, Greg Brandt and Brad McDaniel will write a conspectus from the week of football that was. With UCF’s second loss, they’ve left the door open for the rest of the Group of 5. Which teams are in the best position to replace UCF in a New Year’s Six Bowl?
Who is the Best Group of 5 School?
After suffering a second loss on the season, it appears that UCF is no longer in the driver’s seat for the G5’s automatic bid into a New Year’s Six Bowl. Who’s leading the charge now that the Knights have played themselves out of a major bowl game?
Memphis: 5-0
The Tigers are currently the second-rated G5 school behind UCF in SP+, slotting in two spots behind the Knights. Memphis currently boasts one of the top passing defenses in the nation. They rank 4th in adjusted passing yards per attempt and 3rd in adjusted passing efficiency. On offense, Memphis has been middle of the road in passing but rank near the top in rushing. They come in 8th in adjusted rushing yards per attempt and 12th in adjusted rushing yards per game. Memphis still has to face Temple, Tulane, Houston, SMU, and Cincinnati before they can claim the automatic bid.
SMU: 5-0
SMU is very lucky to be among the undefeated teams. Trailing 30-9 heading into the 4th quarter, the Mustangs pulled off a triple OT victory. SMU has ridden the arm of Texas transfer QB, Shane Buchele. They rank top 10 in adjusted points per game, adjusted points per possession, and adjusted total yards per game. While ranking 7th in adjusted passing yards per game and 10th in yards per attempt. They’ve struggled defensively against the pass. Ranking 100th in adjusted passing yards per game. SMU has the remaining tests of Temple, Houston, Memphis, and Tulane. The matchup against Memphis could be decisive in who gets the bid.
Boise State: 5-0
Outside of an opening weekend upset of Florida St., the Broncos have had a pretty easy schedule. The adjusted numbers aren’t too kind to Boise’s offense, ranking them outside the top 80 in points per game, points per play, and points per possession. Defensively they’ve been very stout against the run. Ranking 15th in adjusted rushing yards per game. Boise State still has to square off against Hawaii, BYU, Wyoming, and Utah State.
Cincinnati: 4-1
The Bearcats lone blemish was a beat down at the hands of Ohio State. The adjusted numbers love Cincinnati’s defense. Ranking 11th in points per game, 7th in yards per game, 8th in rushing yards per game, and 11th in passing yards per attempt. All this despite giving up 42 points and 508 yards of offense to the Buckeyes. Cincinnati has a very manageable schedule until the last two games of the year facing off against Temple and Memphis.
The winner of the AAC appears to have the inside track to getting the automatic bid as long as they all don’t knock each other out in the process. In that scenario look for a Boise State or App. State to sneak into the picture. Keep an eye out for Louisiana Lafayette as a dark horse. Sitting at 4-1 with its only loss at the hands of Mississippi State opening weekend. They have the 3rd-best adjusted rushing attack in the country and have the 3rd most explosive rushing game. 8.41% of there runs go for over 20 yards only behind Oklahoma and Baylor.
Havoc Rating:
Havoc rate is calculated by tallying the total number of tackles for loss, passes defended (interceptions and breakups), and forced fumbles and dividing it by total plays. – FootballOutsiders.Com
Wreaking havoc on an offense can be a major decider in a close game. Let’s take a look at who’s been causing the most havoc after six weeks. You will see many of the top ranked teams in the nation.
The Big 10 currently has the top three rated teams. Ohio State is leading the nation in sacks and tackles for loss, their defensive line has been downright dominant and leading the charge. The Badgers don’t have the sheer volume that Ohio State has, but they have played almost 100 fewer snaps helping out their rating. Penn State is coming off an eight sack game that propelled them up this list. The teams on this list are a combined 44-9 to this point for over an 83% winning percentage.
Most Explosive Offenses:
Any offensive play over 20 yards is counted. Explosive play rate is the percentage of plays over 20 yards for an offense.
No surprise to see Oklahoma at the top of this list. The Sooners haven’t been slowed down at all this season. Oklahoma has an explosive rush rate of 11.96% to lead the nation while second place sits at 8.52%. Notre Dame’s number is highly skewed by playing New Mexico and Bowling Green (defense rank 127th and 122nd in SP+ defensive ratings). Alabama and LSU both have very explosive passing games keeping them in the top 10. Four playoff contenders find their way into the top 10.
Injuries
Missouri QB Kelly Bryant and Florida QB Kyle Trask both suffered minor knee injuries Saturday. Bryant suffered a knee sprain and did not return to the game. However, he is expected to start against Ole Miss this weekend. Trask was fortunate to have only sprained his knee as well. He returned to action against Auburn and didn’t seem too limited.
Nebraska QB Adrian Martinez suffered a knee injury in the third quarter of Nebraska’s game against Northwestern. He is questionable for the Huskers’ upcoming game at Minnesota.
Oregon RB CJ Verdell suffered a foot injury in the first quarter of Oregon’s win over California. He was seen in a walking boot during the game. No decision yet whether or not he will be available Friday versus Colorado.
