Saturday, January 1st:
Outback Bowl (12:00 PM EST, ESPN2)
PENN STATE v ARKANSAS (TOMPA BAY – +1/47.5)
Plays: Arkansas +4.5 (Would personally want +3 to play after Burks/Williams opt-out but if Dotson ruled out I would take Ark ML at any + number before line drops)
The Cotton Bowl began in 1986. Boston College beat Georgia in the inaugural game. The Big 10 has gone 13-19 in its history. Since 2010, they’ve gone 4-7. The SEC has gone 18-13 all-time. Conversely, they’ve matched up with the SEC on each occasion and won 7 of 11. This game is likely to be more important to Arkansas, who is coming out of a long hibernation in their program where they were down in the dumps. Penn State has played in pretty big bowl games in each of the past four seasons. They went 2-2 with three of the four decided by one score.
Penn State was bolstered by the news that their veteran QB Sean Clifford will return next season. Well, some fans may not be excited about that, but getting back a guy with experience is rarely a bad thing. If he doesn’t win the job, you’ve got a young buck that’s probably got the goods. Anyway, onto this game. Penn State has an abysmal rushing offense. They are the inverses of an option team, but they are as bad or worse running the ball that most option teams are throwing the ball, and the option teams at least have the benefit of surprise and can rip off some big plays. They’ve run the ball 409 times this year and only seven of those went for 20+ yards. For some reason, PSU still likes to try to run the ball, averaging 34 carries per game. They rank 89th nationally in attempts but 120th in YPC – tied with Akron. They average 25 PPG on offense. They do most of their damage throwing the ball, but they aren’t particularly explosive. They are a volume-based attack. They have one of the best WRs in the country in Jahan Dotson. He would be an opt-out candidate. He’s going to be a top-100 pick in the NFL Draft and we see most guys in that position opt-out. James Franklin won’t give injury or status updates on players very often and in a recent presser, he refused to say whether or not Dotson will play. My guess is he won’t, but I could be wrong. I’d say my confidence level is 60%, but that’s based on recent historical behavioral patterns and instinct. They have two other good receivers in Washington and Lambert-Smith, but I think KSL would be asked to be the more one-for-one sub for Dotson with Washington remaining an inside WR. Dotson was about 75/25 outside/inside, KSL 80/20 outside/inside, and Washington was about 90/10 inside/outside. Doston was targeted 12 times per game. His role was critical to this offense. He won’t easily be replaced in this game or next year. They give up a lot of sacks and aren’t good in the red zone. They are fine on third downs and don’t turn the ball over very often. Their defense was excellent this year, particularly in keeping opponents from scoring. I would estimate they were probably about a TD better per game than what they should have been. There was no more profitable sub-set for me this season than PSU unders. I seemed to win on that bet nearly every week. However, I watched them, and I was the beneficiary of a ton of positive variance with teams struggling to score points for a variety of reasons. Teams came up empty in the red zone against them on 1 out of three trips, which ranked 3rd nationally. For perspective they ranked 36th nationally in yards allowed. Their former DC Brent Pry is now gone to VT as their head coach. Former Miami HC Emmanuel Diaz will be their DC next year. PSU will be without two of their top LBs who are headed to the NFL and opted-out. Those two combined for 181 tackles which were easily tops on their squad. That is not great against a team that will put your LBs in a ton of stressful spots with their scheme. They didn’t have many statistical deficiencies on defense, but my guess is that the Hogs will be able to run on them. They didnt sack the QB very well, but as I said before, their red zone defense was elite. Their punter and kickoff specialist were elite this season as they ranked top-3 in net punt and kickoff coverage. They were average in penalties committed and they ran a fast paced offense. The downside is their defense was on the field a bunch.
The Hogs had a Cinderella season, going 8-4 in the SEC West. They combined for 8 wins in their three previous full seasons played. This will be Sam Pittman’s first bowl game and you know he’s fired up, YESSIR! Let’s start with the two key opt-outs. They will be without probable R1 NFL WR TREYLON BURKS. He wisely opted-out to become a millionaire very soon. His loss is massive. His market share within his pass catching room was really unrivaled. They have some other dudes with talent, but his loss will surely be felt in this game and next year. The other big loss is their DE Tre Williams who was their leading sack man. Pittman seemed optimistic that they will have the bodies and talent to replace him, seemingly easier than BURKS, which I would wholeheartedly agree with. The Hogs are capable of throwing or passing, but they are at their best when they are bruising in the run game with a collection of talented backs and their massive QB. From there, they typically get the defense to suck down and… WHOOP. OVER THE TOP. (EA SPORTS CORSO VOICE). The Hogs will go as far as their run game will take them and without BURKS, I do have some questions/concerns about their ability to hit the huge plays they need to put points on the board consistently. They are kinda like Coastal Carolina in that they are a low volume pass offense that beats teams up on the ground but the big plays can help to save and bail them outta messes. I like the Hogs OL in pass and run games and they are elite as a team in protecting the football and scoring in the red area. The Hogs defense surrendered 26 PPG. Statistically, they average with their rush defense and slightly above average with pass defense. When you adjust their pass defense for the opponent they come out quite nice. Their opponent adjusted rush defense looks much better on a per-play basis. Sacks and turnovers created are poor on defense and third down and red zone defense are both above average. Their special teams are fine and they operate at a high tempo.
This should be a fast paced game. Usually, a mid 40’s total with this type of probable pace would interest me in an over, at least a little bit. It doesn’t. I wouldn’t be shocked if it goes over the number, and there are several key defensive losses for each team, but the definitive loss of BURKS and possible loss of Dotson make me think both teams could be down a bit on the offensive side of the ball. Considering that PSU is so incredibly one dimensional, I think the loss of Dotson could be felt more, even if BURKS loss badly hampers the Hawg’s ability to be explosive through the air. The loss of PSU’s best two linebackers against the Hawg ground game is going to be pretty significant. I think the Hawgs will be more motivated in this game and I’ve learned I can generally trust an SEC team when they play a team from the B1G. I think this is going to be a tight game. I took the Hawgs at a rogue +4.5 early in the process at a domestic shop. That was before the news of any opt-outs, but I kinda assumed BURKS would be done, but he does love the Hawgs, so I thought there was a slim chance he would go, but he made the right call. I’ll go with the Hawgs 23-21.
Citrus Bowl (1:00 PM EST, ABC):
IOWA v KENTUCKY (ORLANDO – -3/44)
Plays: Kentucky +3 (-115) (Would want -2.5 to play, if Robinson ruled out, pass entirely unless +3 or better in huge swing), Under 45 (Good at 44 or better)
This bowl was first played in 1947. Catawba won that one in a runaway. This game typically pits and SEC school against a B1G school. The SEC is 22-14-1 and the B1G is 13-16 all-time. The SEC is 8-1 against the B1G in the last nine matchups. Iowa was on an 0-5 run but they have won their past three. UK is 3-0 in their last three bowl games and they’ve won either their last 17 or 18 games straight against OOC foes. UK coach Mark Stoops gets a two year extension if he wins this game. It’s not for that reason alone, but I think they will be the more motivated team because this type of game is rare for them. I expect Iowa to be focused and play with max effort.
Iowa needs no introduction. This is the same Iowa team we’ve seen for the past couple of decades. Snail pace, run the ball, throw to the TE, bad QB play, really good defense, and good special teams. They will be without their NFL RB in this game, but they can’t run a lick anyway against any team with a backbone. Pass offense is terrible against everyone. Iowa is tough to run on and while their pass defense is good, teams prefer to attack them via air. Other than the run game being way down and now without their alpha, they give up more sacks than usual, and they are dreadful on third downs, and in the red zone. They don’t have a legit pass rusher this year, so sacks are down, but they lead the nation in turnovers forced, thanks to their nearly 2 interceptions per game. They are good on third downs, but they are again uncharacteristically bad at keeping opponents from scoring once they are in the red area.
Kentucky is pretty much Kentucky, with one small caveat. They have a better QB, WR, and passing game in general than what they typically foster. Unfortunately for them, two of their top WRs just got in a car accident and are out for this game. To potentially make matters worse, I wouldn’t be shocked if their elite NFL WR Wan’Dale Robinson opts out of this one as he has dreams of playing in the league. That means they have a totally overhauled WR1,2,3 for this game facing off against the nation’s leader in interceptions. If Robinson plays, he will have one eye on the UK single season receiving record. It would take a Herculean effort to get there against this defense, but he’s 148 yards away from taking sole custody of that honor. Will levis has thrown his fair share of picks, but honestly, having watched them a bunch this year, a lot of them were on his WRs and not his fault. He’s made some awful throws, to be sure, but he didn’t get tons of help, besides WaRo. Both teams have an OL that could/should opt-out, but I get the sense that both Linderbaum and Kinnard are gonna play. UK has a very good defense and they don’t have any glaring holes. They are tougher to run on than pass, but they are similar to Iowa in that teams have chosen to attack them via air. Unlike Iowa, they don’t force any interceptions or force turnovers. If Iowa wins the game, it will be because they won the turnover margin, per usual. UK has very good special teams, other than kick returns and field goals.
I wouldn’t be in a hurry to lay the points with UK. I got them at open as a three point dog. I believe that was a bad number and the market did as well. Given the rash of injuries and opt-outs on offense, I added the Under 45. This game has real potential to be a rock fight. If you told me that the winning team scored 14, I wouldn’t bat an eye. This is going to be a game that is devoid of any pace and generally could fall into a very conservative stupor. I would be shocked if this game is anything to look at. Deep down, that’s how both of these head coaches want it. If Robinson plays, I think he is the only X-Factor that could make a significant difference. If he’s out, UK is really gonna struggle to score. Iowa is really gonna struggle to score no matter what, I think. They have the unfortunate distinction of the worst offense against the best relative defense of the entire bowl slate. I think this game should challenge Wisconsin/ASU for the lowest scoring, and it may now be in pole position with the WR injuries for UK and opt-out of Goodson. I’ll call for the Cats in a 17-14 thriller.
Fiesta Bowl (5:00 PM EST, ESPN):
OKLAHOMA STATE v NOTRE DAME (ARIZONA – -2/45.5)
Plays: None now
This game was first played in 1971. Independents have gone 10-10 and the Big 12 has gone 6-7 all-time. Mike Gundy has gone 10-5 in bowls and 4-0 in the last four. Notre Dame will be coached by Marcus Freeman, making his first appearance as a HC in a bowl. The Irish are 2-3 in their last five bowls. I don’t see a major motivational edge for either team in this game.
I am looking forward to watching this game as a fan. I was upset that these two got pitted against one another, because they were both play-on teams for me in a bowl. I’ll start with the big losses. Brian Kelly is gone to LSU and this is now Marcus Freeman’s team. I assume the complexion of the offense and defense will look comparable, but I don’t know how the team responds. I feel pretty strongly that they will want to play really hard for Freeman both in this game and in the future. Oklahoma State will be without their star defensive coordinator Jim Knowles as he took the DC job at Ohio State. I imagine his loss will be felt. The two biggest personnel changes both come for Notre Dame. DB Kyle Hamilton and RB Kyren Williams will head to the NFL and will be absent this game. Hamilton has missed a bunch of time already this season, so I wouldn’t make too large of an adjustment. Williams has been a focal point of the offense and his versatility as a receiver and runner make him a dangerous weapon. I like the backs that will fill in, but none are ready to play at the level that Williams has played.
I don’t have a good read, nor a strong opinion about this game right now. I don’t think either team’s offense has a discernible advantage in either the rush or pass game. The pace of the game will be fairly crisp and it’s rare a game with an above average amount of pace would be totaled in the mid-40’s. Even without the offenses having a big edge, I would have a lean to the over in this one. I think the Irish get the win, but I see it being close throughout. I’ll go with the Irish 27-23.
Rose Bowl (5:00 PM EST, ESPN):
UTAH v OHIO STATE (PASADENA – -6.5/66)
Plays: Utah +9/8.5/7.5 (Good at +6 or better)
The Granddaddy of em all was first played in 1902. One thing that I found really surprising was the early attendance. By 1935, it shows that more than 80,000 fans were attending this game each year. That seems like a ton for that era, considering the challenges of travel. The PAC12 has had a lot more historical success than the B1G in this game. The P12 has won four of the last five in this series against the B1G. Ryan Day is 1-2 in bowl games. Kyle Whittingham is an incredible 11-3. He’s lost his last two, but there have been few bowl teams more consistently successful than Whittingham’s Utes. In terms of motivation, I have no doubt that Utah will be the more motivated team. This is their program’s first trip to the Rose Bowl and if you follow this program at all, you could see the joy that not only winning the conference brought them, but getting a chance to play in this game. As an Alabama fan, I’ve seen firsthand what can happen to a team with national title aspirations that ends up settling for another bowl, albeit a grand one, when you get to face a hungry, stalking Utah team. I haven’t seen much in the way of official opt-outs, but if a team were going to brunt of them, it would surely be Ohio State.
I can count on one hand how many teams were playing as well as Utah down the stretch. We know they are going to have a nasty defense every year. They do again this year. They allow 21 PPG on defense. They don’t have any holes on that side. They are very good against the run and tremendous against the pass. They sack the QB really well, but don’t force tons of turnovers. They are good on third downs and in the red zone. Utah scored 35 PPG on offense this year. Unlike some years, they have great balance. They are a rush offense, first and foremost, and they typically have a mobile QB. They’ve got that again this year, but Cam Rising is an excellent passer as well. They don’t have a great collection of pass catchers, but they understand their roles and come in a variety of shapes and sizes. This team likes to play from the front, but they are capable of playing from behind and catching up, if needed. They are a very disciplined team and special teams are good aside from punting and FG kicking which are both well below average.
Ohio State has an incredible offense. They average 46 PPG. They have great balance. Their running game isn’t great, but their FR RB is, who makes these numbers look better than they would be if they deployed a lesser talent. He’s just capable of taking any carry the distance. Their passing game is probably the best in the country. Sure, there are some air raids that would challenge them, but in terms of having an NFL QB and three NFL WRs out wide every play, no one else can come close to matching them in that regard. They don’t have a particularly mobile QB in Stroud, but he can scoot around the pocket and he benefits from having the best WR corps in the country, by a country mile. Protecting the QB, the football, third downs, red zone are all elite statistically. Their issue comes on defense. Fortunately, they play in the B1G, so on paper, they look to be pretty good. They only allow 21 PPG. I’ve said it for awhile, but I knew once they were tasked with playing a legitimate offense, they would show their true colors. They were exposed early in the season, losing at home 35-28 to Oregon, whom Utah just outscored by 100 or so within a three week span, they gave up 500+ yards to Tulsa, Purdue neared 500 yards on them, and Michigan physically dominated them 42-27, effectively ending their season. Due to game scripts, most teams were forced to throw on their defense, so their rush numbers look pretty respectable, but against two physical run games of Oregon and Michigan they gave up 269 and 297 rushing yards. Utah will be a tougher test for their rush defense than any team that they’ve faced this season. Utah will also have the defensive chops to keep this a close football game so they aren’t likely going to be forced to abandon the run and get too one dimensional. Their secondary is good on an opponent adjusted or per play basis, but the raw numbers aren’t as favorable because of the volume they encounter. The Bucks will have a significant edge on special teams in this game, but they are likely to commit more penalties as they lack discipline as a club.
This should be a slightly below average paced game. Weather is unlikely to be a factor in Pasadena. The setting for this game should be near perfect. This game opened Utah +10 in some places and unfortunately, I was not quick enough on the draw. I was able to get them at several numbers between 7.5 and 9. This is somewhat of a macro play for me. Give me more than a TD with Utah and I’ll bet them against anyone, in any year. I had a feeling the Rose Bowl could be the destination for this team in the off-season and a ton of futures paid off. While Penn State under buttered my bread, Utah will be sending me on a welcome vacation in the near future, regardless of this outcome. I believe that I’m getting the better gameday coach, the more motivated team, and a historically dangerous bowl underdog in the Utes. They will be at an athletic disadvantage as most teams are against the Bucks. While I’m not huge advocate for the quality of the PAC 12, I’m generally less impressed with the B1G this year, certainly relative to panache and some accolades that the conference was getting throughout the season. Ohio State is unquestionably a better team than they were in September, but I can’t seem to shake them losing to Oregon and Utah embarrassing them twice in recent weeks. I know that football isn’t played transitively, but I think the Ohio State defense is not good and Utah is exactly the type of team that could really bother them on both sides of the ball. Again, I have no clue about any opt-outs, but it’s possible that OSU could see a rash of guys elect to play in a relatively meaningless (due to their goals this season and recent CFP history) bowl game and they will be facing a Utah team that is playing in arguably their most important game in program history. It’s certainly the most important bowl game as they get to Pasadena for the first time. I think this should be a great game and the Utes get it done 34-31.
Sugar Bowl (8:45 PM EST, ESPN):
BAYLOR v OLE MISS (NAWLINS – PICK/54.5)
Plays: Over 50.5 -115 (Good to 54.5)
I’ve run out of time. After a huge run on Ole Miss unders, it’s time to buck the trend. In fairness, quite a few of the unders were OM games lined in the 60’s and 70’s, so when I got a low 50’s total, I was ready to zig instead of zag. I do think Baylor is better built to defend some RPO stuff, but we will finally have a healthy OM offense for the first time since about September. We’ve got Matt Corral’s final collegiate game and Lane had a month to draw up an offensive gameplan and full autonomy now that Lebby is gone. The loss of a guy like Lebby would smart a ton in most situations, but not when Lane is there in the interim. He’s a HC solely because he’s an elite play caller. I think the OM defense has been a lot better than what they’ve been credited, but this will be the best OL that they’ve gone up against this season and a play caller that I’ve grown in respect for. Baylor should get healthier on offense for this game as well, as Bohanon played hurt in the title game. Baylor will be able to run the ball in this one and if OM overcommits, pop em over the top. Both of these teams should be familiar with some of the drop-8 defensive principles as both defenses implement it, and the philosophy is growing in popularity in each conference. Ole Miss shouldn’t be able to stop the run with that philosophy and if they have to change things up, they are going to be exposed at the back. Baylor’s defense has been great this season. In fairness, this is the worst offensive Big 12 conference that I can recall in at least the past five years, possibly more. I have almost no respect for any team’s offense in that conference. Ole Miss is far better than any other team and they have a QB that is on another planet in terms of ability relative to what Baylor has seen this season. I’ve noticed that fast tempo has bothered several teams this bowl season, especially early in games. That was something that Kent State did against Wyoming yesterday and it bamboozled them, both early and throughout. OM will move at a pace that Baylor hasn’t seen. Both teams are going to play really hard and both fan bases have to be thrilled to watch their teams play in a regionally sentimental venue like the SuperDome. Fast track in the dome; should be a competitive and fun game. Both of these teams are going to be very aggressive on fourth downs. If they are successful on offense, this one scoots over easily. If they aren’t, then the entire complexion changes and another OM under cashes, but I’m on the wrong side of it for once! I’ll go with Ole Miss 31-27
Tuesday, January 4th:
Texas Bowl (9:00 PM EST, ESPN):
LSU v KANSAS ST (HOUSTON – -3.5/48)
Plays: UNDER 47 (Good at 47 or better)
LSU’s best case scenario is they start a freshman that has already played in four games and is ineligible to redshirt if he plays again. Apparently, they are appealing this to try to get him to play, but that makes zero sense to me how they could win that. If he can’t go, I honestly have no idea who they will go with a QB. Some walk-on. Myles Brennan is coming back next year but he’s already said he’s not playing this game. If Nuss can’t go, and I see no reason why he could, I think that LSU would likely throw it about 15-20 times and run it about 40-50 times. They really got away from the passing attack from the middle-to-late part of the year anyway, but there would be additional incentives to do so even more aggressively in this game. On the other side of the field, Kansas State has been without their QB1 Skylar Thompson. His backups, both players that I’ve felt excited about their futures in the past, are terrible. It’s looking like Thomspon will likely be a go in this game, or he’s at least trending positively, but it’s still TBD. Shoot, by the time this game is played, half of every team may have this Omicron. As of my typing this, it seems like these final 7-10 days of bowl games are going to be a disaster with teams adversely impacted with the virus. Kansas State is a terrible passing offense. Honestly, their whole offense is just get the ball to Deuce Vaughn and pray. Each of these teams strengths on defense are against the rush, and neither team is a legitimate threat to throw the ball with any consistency or efficiency. They will just hope to break off big plays, and there aren’t many playmakers out wide for either team, but especially Kansas State who just can’t touch the athletes that LSU brings in. LSU moves at an average pace, likely to slow down further here in this game if they have a walk-on or guy I’ve never heard of at QB. Kansas State moves as slow as a triple option team to begin with. I doubt either team cares about this game at all. Kansas State is likely the more motivated as they get to play a brand name team but I can’t see LSU caring about this game with an interim lame duck staff. I’m not even sure what their coaching staff will look like in this game? The downside of an under in this game is that it will be played indoors on a fast track in Houston. I still think this game has major rockfight potential and think the under is at least worth a taste at 47 or 48. This bowl season has made very little sense to date, and it’s likely only going to get weirder, so I suppose it’s wise to proceed with caution. 21-20 Kansas State.
If I could have a re-do, I would have played fewer games early and been willing to sacrifice CLV, which I’m generally getting plenty of, for updated personnel news and a better gauge on motivation, etc, that isn’t widely available when numbers are first released. Lesson learned for next year in this new era of bowl games, especially amidst the chaos of COVID.
It’s been a fun year. Grateful for the support and interactions with so many of you. Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, God Bless you and your families!
