Friday, December 31st:
Gator Bowl (11:00 AM EST, ESPN)
WAKE v TEXAS A&M (JACKSONVILLE – -4.5/57.5)
Plays: Wake +7.5 (-125) (Good to +4.5)
The Gator Bowl was played for the first time about 15 months after the conclusion of World War II. The winner of the first Gator Bowl in 1946? Wake Forest! While they had higher aspirations late in the season after playing for the ACC title, I believe they will be excited to play in this game. They are 0-2 in their last two bowl games, but 3-2 over the past five seasons, all under Dave Clawson. aTm is 3-0 in their last three bowls, all under Jimbo Fisher. Fisher has been tremendous in bowls, with an 8-2 career record. The Aggies were a popular darkhorse this off season to make a CFP run. This is the most talented team that Fisher has coached, but they fell short of expectations. I’ll get to it more in a bit, but I think this will be the least motivated, lowest effort bowl team of Jimbo’s career.
This is not an X’s and O’s play for me. The Aggies will be starting their QB3 in this game. Blake Bost was a preferred walk-on that turned down scholarships from teams like Lamar and Incarnate Word. He appeared in five games this year, going 2-7-18-0-1 passing and he didn’t record a rush attempt. Haynes King was their starter entering the season and fractured his leg. He’s been trying to work himself back into shape, but Fisher kinda intimated there is no value in rushing him back for a meaningless bowl game. The QB that started most of their games, Zach Calzada was a portal casualty. Their NFL RB, Isaiah Spiller, just declared for the NFL Draft. He will skip the bowl game. All American DE DeMarvin Leal will be an early NFL pick and he’s out. If I had to guess, the following guys could opt-out as well: DB Leon O’Neal, DL Micheal Clemons, DL Jayden Peevy, OL Kenyon Green, WR/KR Ainias Smith, and TE Jaylen Wydermyer. If I’m right, that’s at least 8 of their 22 starters from opening day that will miss this game, and they will be led by a FR Walk-on at QB. Seven of those guys rate to be pretty early NFL Draft picks. They have talented younger players that will fill in for them, but I’ve gotta get my money down in good spots in bowl season and I believe I’ve done so here. aTm is going to be one of the toughest defenses that Wake will have played, but I don’t know that they are going to play at an elite level without all those NFL guys. The offense wasn’t good for much of the year with Calzada at QB, and it’s possible that Bost only throws the ball 15-20 times and they just run Achane and Johnson down Wake’s throat and that’s enough to win and cover, but I’m willing to take my chances. If these guys all miss, this number is gonna crash. I’m writing this 15 days before the game, so we will just see what happens when this article publishes in a few days. We may not see much news until right before kickoff. While I have no respect for Wake’s defense, their offense can put points on the board and the matchup of Hartman vs. Bost is amongst the greater mismatches of this bowl cycle. Jimbo is always going to coach conservatively and if he can go out and win a bowl game this shorthanded over a scrappy Wake team, I tip me cap. I think that Wake has shot to win a close one, 28-27.
TONY THE TIGER Sun Bowl (2:00 PM EST, CBS):
WASHINGTON STATE v MIAMI (EL PASO – -2.5/59.5)
Plays: Washington State +3 (Small play at +3 – Souring on game)
Congratulations, and welcome to El Paso: The Passageway to the North! This bowl was first played in 1935 where the El Paso All-Stars defeated the Texas Rangers 25-21. Miami has played in this game twice, losing both tries. Washington State has also played in this one two times, winning both. The PAC 12 is 19-11-1 in this bowl, winning seven of nine since 2011. Miami has been an all time dreadful bowl team of late, they are 1-10 straight up in their last eleven appearances. Washington State actually beat them in the Sun Bowl 20-14 in 2015. Including that game, Washington State is 2-3 in their last five bowl games. Miami will have an interim staff for this game and while their HC lacks HC experience, they have two coordinators with some experience. I think Washington State should have a slight motivational edge in this game. It’s hard for me to imagine a bunch of Florida kids getting fired up for a trip to El Paso to play an obscure team from the P12.
Washington State’s strengths are its pass offense and pass defense. Miami’s strengths are their pass offense and the best thing I can say about their defense is that they’ve played some really strong offenses, so they aren’t as bad as their raw numbers would indicate. In terms of opt-outs, Miami will be without their alpha WR Charleston Rambo and DT Jon Ford. Washington State RB Maxi Borghi has opted out as he prepares for the NFL. What I didn’t realize when I took Washington State in the game but was informed of when reading Borgghi’s quote was this, “At the end of the day I’ve got to do what’s best for (my draft prospects), especially playing the position I play. It’s high risk, and I’m nothing without my O-line, and we’re missing a right tackle, left tackle and starting guard. It didn’t seem worth it to me to risk injury.” The right tackle is an NFL player, but I’m working to confirm what he mentioned in regards to their possibly being three OL out. I also expect Washington State to be without starting CB Jaylen Watson. He and the OT Abraham are both going to the Senior Bowl. It’s rare that Miami may be in better shape personnel-wise than their opponent, but the more I’m gathering info, the more that I feel that could be the case. I’m starting to sour some on Washington State, but they were really a small position to begin with. Even without his go-to WR, I think Tyler Van Dyke is going to enjoy a decided advantage in terms of the QB matchups. I like de Laura plenty, but TVD was on a tear to finish the season. He threw for 300+ yards and 3+ TDs in each Miami’s final six games this season. Washington State does have a pretty good pass defense, and Miami will be without their WR1 and their normal OC, but he’s been dynamite down the stretch. The Miami passing attack as their strength as a team and Washington State’s is their pass defense. I’m assuming that Miami continues to operate with tempo, as they were one of the top-ten fastest paced offenses in the country this year. Washington State moves slowly (I assume they go faster next year as they transition fully out of Run-n’shoot and go back to air-raid). It’s fair to assume this is an average paced game. I’m not sure I would be in a big hurry to play Washington State anymore. I’ll call this 28-27 Miami, but no outcome would surprise me. Here’s to hoping for another Cane bowl egg (EGG BOWL!).
Arizona Bowl (2:00 PM EST, Stoolie Watch Party at Knish’s House: Detroit Address to Follow):
CMU v BOISE (TUCSON – -8/55)
Plays: OVER 52.5 (Good to 55)
This will be the seventh running of the Arizona Bowl. The MWC is 4-3 and the MAC is 1-0 all time. CMU has played in 12 bowls in their history, going 3-9. They are 0-5 in their last five, with their last win coming in 2012 in the Little Caesars Bowl. Jim Mc is 2-2 in bowl games, but 1-0 on getting some action when he goes deep sea fishing. Boise State is 1-2 in their last three bowls. This will be Andy Avalos’ first bowl as a HC. I don’t know which team will be the most motivated? I guess CMU is the best guess of the two.
CMU scored 32 PPG this season, but it was admittedly against pretty poor competition. They are a balanced offense that has a high volume, workhorse RB in Lew Nichols. They actually throw the ball better than they run it, but Nichols leads CFB in rushing. CMU operates their offense at tempo. They are average or above average protecting the QB, protecting the football, and in the red area. They aren’t great converting third downs, that is probably the weakness of their offense. Defensively, they give up 29 PPG. They are good against the run and terrible against the pass. They get after the QB really well but they have a massive talent void at the back. They don’t force turnovers and aren’t good in the red zone, but they are excellent on third downs.
Boise State scores 29 PPG. They have their worst rush offense that I can remember since I have followed football, but they have a really good passing offense and a talented group of receivers. Sacks and turnovers are average, but third downs and red zone offense are excellent. They give up 19 PPG on defense. Their scoring defense makes them out to be a better defense than they probably are. For example, they gave up three points to Utah State but nearly 450 yards. They aren’t great against rush or pass, but not terrible against either. They get after the QB pretty well. They force two turnovers per game, which is good for top-10 nationally. They are average on third downs and good in the red zone. Their special teams are amongst the best in the country.
I really like the matchup of the Boise passing attack against the CMU pass defense. I think that is one of the more pronounced matchup advantages of bowl season. CMU’s offense really came alive down the stretch. They scored 38, 42, 54, 37, and 31 points in their last five games. All five of those came against MAC bowlers. I took the over 52.5 in this game. I felt the number was slightly depressed because Boise played some anemic offenses down the stretch and it made their scoring defense look better than they are. Boise will operate at tempo as well, though slightly more average than CMU who is clearly a fast-mover. Boise’s advantages in the passing game and CMU playing really excellent offense down the stretch lead me to believe that this game should’ve featured a total closer to the high 50’s than the low 50’s. Both of these clubs are cold weather teams and often play in the elements. The trip down to Tucson should be welcomed by all, and I think that likely leads to more crisp offensive execution. I like Boise to win something like 34-24. If this thing keeps steaming upward and you haven’t played, it may be worth looking for a live opp, playing smaller, or just doing something more fruitful with your time on NYE than watching some Barstool stream bowl game.
Cotton Bowl (3:30 PM EST, ESPN):
CINCI v ALABAMA (DALLAS – -13.5/58)
Plays: None now
We’ve now arrived at the co-main events. This bowl got going in 1937. I’m not sure that we can learn anything from its history, and we don’t have to touch on motivation. Saban is 8-3 SU in CFP bowls alone. Luke Fickell is 2-2 in bowl games but has only coached in one of consequence, losing to UGA in the Peach last year 24-21.
Cincinnati went 13-0 this season. They generally handled their business well, but had some struggles with some teams they probably shouldn’t have. That happens when you become the team with the target on your back and the microscope follows. They average 39 PPG but they are decidedly average on offense. They have an experienced, dual-threat QB in Desmond Ridder and a talented RB that actually wisely left Bama and went north to Cincinnati. Their line is pretty good for G5 standards, but I question how they will hold up against this level of competition. It’s hard for me to envision their tackles holding up well against Will Anderson, who was blocked by no one, future NFL player or not. I’m not a huge fan of Cinci’s pass catchers. Alec Pierce is a really good athlete that has potential, but he’s an underwhelming WR1. They use their TEs well and have two good ones in Whyle and Taylor. I imagine they will both be heavily targeted in this game as Bama has shown a clear weakness against them for years. Cinci is in this game because of their defense. They give up 17 PPG. Their rush defense is their weakness. Their pass defense is amongst the best in the country. They have two tremendous corners, they get after the QB at an elite level, they force tons of turnovers, they are nails on third down and in the red area. Their FG kicking is an abomination, but the rest of the special teams are strengths. Penalties are an issue for the Cats and they rarely keep the ball for the lion’s share of the game.
Most of you have heard me talk about Bama quite a bit already this year, and you’re familiar with them. Their OL isn’t nearly as good this year as it has been in the past, but they played a great game against the nation’s top defense in Georgia last game. The passing attack is their bread and butter behind Heisman-winner Bryce Young. The big loss in this game and potentially in the final is of WR John Metchie. He tore up his knee late in the first half of the SECCG. If Alabama struggles in this game or in the next, should they make it, I think his loss could be a big reason why. The secondary is junk, and they will be without one of their most experienced starting corners, but I think it’s fair to say that none of the playoff teams, other than Alabama, have a great passing attack. Bama is elite at stopping the run, and I think that is significant in this game and potentially against UGA again or Michigan. Alabama will need to target Jameson Williams a ton in this game. BOB has plenty of time to scheme how to get him open and hopefully, find some ways to scheme open the role playing receivers. While Alabama hasn’t used the TEs as much as BOB has in the past and as much as I imagined, I do think they will have some advantages to exploit in this game. Last game, Houston peppered Tank Dell a ton and he had 9-150-1. They chose to have him work out the slot, presumably to avoid Gardner and Bryant, who work primarily on the outsides. Jameson hasn’t played more than 44% of his snaps in a game in the slot, but I wonder if that number goes up, or if they just trust his speed to be such that they will take their chances with the outside guys and him presenting a level of speed they simply haven’t seen and can’t simulate? Bama’s punting isn’t good but the rest of the units are average or good. Penalties remain a significant issue for Bama. That is probably the thing that is most uncharacteristic of a Saban team.
The matchup of the Bama passing attack, minus Metchie, against the Cincinnati pass defense is both the most fascinating matchup of the bowl season and the key to unlocking this game. Neither team will have much margin for error in this game, especially if you are thinking in terms of point spreads where Bama will need to win by 2 full TDs to get the money. I will likely have a few props to target in this game, but I’m not currently interested in the side or total. If forced to pick something of the four options, I suppose the under would be the most attractive of the options. I think Bama wins something like 34-20.
Orange Bowl (7:30 PM EST, ESPN):
GEORGIA v MICHIGAN (MIAMI – +7.5/45)
Plays: None now
I don’t have very many thoughts about this game. As a lifelong fan of Jim Harbaugh’s, I have mixed emotions. Of course, I want that beautiful man to win this game. Who doesn’t? On the other hand, as an Alabama fan, I don’t want any piece of the greatest coach to ever do it. I’ve found myself in quite the pickle.
On paper, this game favors Georgia at nearly every turn. However, JIMMMAAAYYYY isn’t bound by paper.
Prior to the B1GCG, Iowa had held 34 straight opponents under 27 points.
Prior to the B1GCG, Iowa had lost 6 games by 10 or more over the past 6 years.
BIG DICK JIMBO SLAMMED CAPTAIN KIRK WITH A 42-PIECE IN A 39 POINT ROUTE. 42-3! LOL
What a guy!
Both of these teams average 38 PPG on offense. Georgia only allows 10 PPG on defense and Michigan 16. Michigan is going to need to be able to both establish the LOS on offense and run the ball, as well as hit some big plays in the passing game to make it to their date with destiny. I think the cracks in the facade we saw last week from Georgia against Alabama aren’t likely to be replicated by any team left in the CFP, save for Alabama, and even them doing something comparable on offense for a second time feels highly unlikely. I was finally willing to buy Steston Bennett late this season, but he showed his extreme limitations last game against Bama. Well, Michigan’s defense is a whole lot better than Alabama’s. I don’t think too highly of the B1G as a whole this year, particularly as it pertains to offenses, but it’s going to be difficult for UGA to rely on their running game, similar to last week, and the game is going to come down to SBIV’s effectiveness as a passer. Teams prefer to attack both of these defenses via air, but it won’t be easy for either team to do a ton of damage. Similar to Alabama, Michigan is going to have a pass rusher, actually two, that are going to make life difficult for SB. UGA may not have an elite group of pass catchers, but they have a lot better collection than Michigan, who relies more on scheme to get guys open than the skill of their guys. I’d imagine we see a good bit from the TEs again in this one, but if Georgia is smart, they rewatch the old Sugar Bowl and give Pickens, presumably fully healthy after the break, a steady diet of a dozen targets. If I had to place my faith in one particular unit in this game, it would likely be UGA’s defense. They’ve shut down offenses that have some similarities to Michigan’s all year. Consequently, Michigan hasn’t seen many athletes on either side of the ball that Georgia will deploy. Georgia’s offense shouldn’t be confused with Ohio State’s, despite what the PPG may indicate. Michigan has struggled some this year with teams that operate at tempo, and while Monken may see that and mix some in, this is a clash of two football teams built in yesteryear. This feels a bit like the BCS natty’s from a decade or so ago. It’s easier for me to trust Georgia’s ability to have more success throwing the ball and just trusting their defense more in general. JIMBO finally gets another crack at those no-good cheaters down in the SEC that improperly utilize satellite camps to enhance their means. Kirby has been better in bowl games than Jim, but this is a new JIM, living with renewed purpose and zeal. In order to do this objectively, everything that Jimbo has done or had done to him prior to the Iowa game must be forgotten. The slate wiped clean. I think the only outcome that would surprise me in this game would be a Michigan blowout win and another wild shootout like the SECCG. I’ll likely look for props in this one as opposed to going with a side or total, barring major movement in the next 10 days or so. My head says Georgia 27-20 but my heart says JIMMY 42-3. Better to pour a tall glass of whole milk and enjoy than invest in this one, given the current options.
