Wednesday, December 29th:
Wasabi Fenway Bowl (11:00 AM EST, ESPN)
SMU v UVA (BOSTON – -2.5/71.5)
Plays: UVA PK (Good to -2.5)
This is the first time the Fenway Bowl will be played. It was scheduled to get off the ground last year, but COVID caused a cancellation. SMU has only played in two bowl games since 2013. They got smoked in both 2017 and 2019. They just hired Miami OC Rhett Lashlee as their HC. Sonny Dykes went to TCU, and I’m still unclear who will coach them in this game. I would think they will want to win because no one on their roster has gotten one at SMU, but they could also lay down. Their motivation is steeped in high variance. UVA is 1-2 in their last three bowls under Bronco Mendenhall. This is an odd deal because Bronco unexpectedly announced his retirement. He’s not taking another job, this is likely truly his final football game as a college coach. I think UVA will be both better prepared and more motivated in this game. Bronco is 7-7 in bowls in his career.
SMU will be without their head coach, offensive coordinator, RB coach, DL coach, S&C coach, and two of their top receivers. They are all offense and no defense. They average 37 PPG. Their rush offense is average and their pass offense is excellent. Will that be the case without two of their top pass catchers and their OC? I think they’ve recruited WR very well, so part of me wants to give them the benefit of the doubt, but I think it’s reasonable to assume their offense takes a step back in this one. They are good protecting the QB, converting third downs, and in the red zone. They turn the ball over a good bit and they operate at a fast tempo. The defense gives up 30 PPG. Rush defense is their strength, which wont matter in this game, but their secondary is atrocious. They are decent in the red zone, but generally average or worse in all other key areas. I am not a fan of their special teams. They are fairly disciplined in terms of penalties but their turnover margin is really poor.
UVA is also all offense and no defense. They are an elite passing attack with a dreadful rushing game. They average 34 PPG. They have one of the best QBs in college football in Brennan Armstrong. He missed some time and was beat up later in the season, so this extra prep time should be really helpful for him to get healed up. They’ve got a sweet collection of pass catchers that have been good all year. UVA allows 35 PPG. They are the opposite of SMU. Their rush defense is terrible and their secondary is less so. Sacks, turnovers, 3rd down D are all not good. They do tend to buckle down in the red area, but this is a bad defense. The Hoos special teams are decent. They are penalized an above average amount and operate a high tempo offense.
If this game were being played with both teams full strength, under more normal circumstances, I’d probably bet the over and be done with that. However, I think SMU could take a step back in this game because of their staff and personnel losses and this is a bunch of Texas guys heading up to Boston to play a game in late December. This is a 10 AM body clock kickoff and we’ve got some wind and snow in the forecast for the early part of game week. While an argument could be made that their advantages on the ground are far more pronounced, I tend to think the UVA players are going to be better equipped to handle the cold and I do believe that they are going to play extremely hard and want to send Bronco out a winner. I took UVA PICK in this game, and I admit that part of the play is that I’ve grown quite fond of UVA and I WANT them to win. I just want to be clear about that. In fairness, there are other teams that I WANT to win their bowl games, but I just can’t make as compelling of a case as I can with UVA. Brennan Armstrong needs 144 passing yards to break Deshaun Watson’s single season passing record. He should do that in the first half of this game. Both teams finished the year in very poor form with both teams going 1-4 in their last five games. I’m banking on the motivation, stability, and massive edge with the UVA passing attack against the SMU secondary to be enough for them to get the dub. 38-32 Hoos. Keep an eye on this forecast, it could result in a lower scoring game if things look ugly.
Pinstripe Bowl (2:15 PM EST, ESPN):
Maryland v VT (NEW YORK – -1/55)
Plays: None now
This will be the 11th Pinstripe Bowl. Both the B1G and ACC have played in this game six times. The B1G is 5-1 and ACC is 1-5. No player on either team has won a bowl at their respective schools. Maryland last won a bowl game in 2010. They are 0-3 in their last three. VT last won a bowl in 2016 and are 0-3 in their last three as well. Mike Locksley has been a head coach for six years prior to this year and had never gone bowling. That pretty much summarizes my thoughts on him as a coach. VT will have an interim coach in this game. The Hokies have a ton more pro prospects on their roster and most of them have already opted-out of this game. I believe that Maryland will be the more motivated team.
I don’t really wanna talk about this game. It’s a trash bowl. I almost bet VT on numerous occasions. My primary hang up was their potential opt-outs, and that fear manifested as most of their top draft eligible guys have shut it down. Similar to my Fenway writeup, weather could be an issue in the Big Apple. While both teams are better suited to handle it than a group from Dallas, I do wonder how Tagovailoa handles potentially wet/cold/snow/wind. He’s a native Hawaiian and critical to the Terps’ success. VT is all rush offense and pass defense. Maryland is all pass offense and really no defense. They are miserable in the secondary, but VT really isn’t a threat to throw on anyone. I have no idea how this game goes. If VT cared and was full strength I would have played them pretty heavy at current numbers but they aren’t and I won’t. I’ll take a look at some props in this one, but I honestly hope I’m not in a position where I even have the opportunity to watch this game. I really have no idea. Surely the ragtag staff at VT could teach them how to defend a million WR screens to get ready for this one. Maybe VT 27-24? No outcome would matter or surprise me.
CHEEZ-IT Bowl (5:45 PM EST, ESPN):
Clemson v Iowa State (ORLANDO – +1/45.5)
Plays: None now (Lean Iowa State and OVER)
How old is this bowl? Home Alone made its theatrical release six weeks prior to the inaugural Blockbuster Bowl in 1990. I’m not sure how it could happen, but I’d sure like to see Blockbuster somehow sponsor another bowl. Maybe Netflix could sponsor it and just turn it into some type of abomination to get one last twist of the knife? Well, neither of these teams expected to be playing in this one. Will either team care? My guess is that Iowa State will. They are a veteran team that tries hard. Clemson has been in the CFP for many years and now plays in this baby, so probably no chance they really care. I’m sure they will all say the right things, but this is a team without their OC, DC, AD, and probably sees some more opt-outs. Iowa State surely could and should have guys opt-out, but my hunch is that they play one final game together. They are very process and team oriented, so that’s the assumption that I’m operating under. By my count, this is the first meaningless bowl game that Clemson has played in since 2014. They are 7-4 since that game. They’ve been humbled in their last two bowl games and they have been humbled again by playing in a tiny orange cracker bowl. CHEEZ-ITS really are delicious, though. Iowa State is kinda the opposite. They’ve only played in one meaningful bowl game in their program history. That was a year ago against Mario the Cristobal and his Ducks, where they smacked em 34-17. Campbell is 2-2 in bowls at Iowa State and he is 4-3 all-time.
Clemson is rid of their OC Tony Elliott. I don’t know who will call plays in this game, but I’m certainly willing to entertain the notion that it’s addition by subtraction as long as they aren’t using a Dr. Pepper can toss contestant to call the plays. Clemson’s offense stunk this year. They couldn’t do anything well. They ended up averaging 25 PPG after the offense found some life down the stretch, scoring 30 points or more in their last five games. Their rush offense is the strength of the team, but it’s an average at best rush offense. DJU stunk at QB all year and he at least got out of the team’s ways down the stretch, even though he never reached 250 passing yards in their final five game flurry. His WRs were beat up and underperformed all year, and now they will have a large unknown with the placalling in this game. The line protected him fairly well and they didn’t turn it over a bunch, but they were awful on third downs and in the red zone. Their defense is the reason that they made a bowl this year. They gave up 16 PPG. They were nearly impossible to run on and while their pass defense stats look worse than the run game, that was volume related and not a reflection of their aptitude. Who will coordinate the defense now that Venables is gone? This I can say most confidently, whoever they choose isn’t as good as BV, who remains amongst the absolute best at his craft and how he organized, prepared, and deployed his defense on a snap-by-snap basis. He could create confusion for offenses as well as anyone in the country. Sacks, TOs, third downs, red area – all displays for excellence for the CU defense this year. They were average in terms of discipline but excellent on special teams. Clemson moved at a quick tempo this year, and I imagine that stays the same the bowl, but I don’t know.
ISU had the table set for a Big 12 title run this year. They had been building for this season and the rest of the conference did their jobs. Texas and Oklahoma were nowhere near as good as they usually are, but it was not ISU, it was actually Baylor and Oklahoma State that did what they were supposed to. Their offense scored 34 PPG. Brocky Purdy was productive as a passer and their un game didn’t quite live up to their expectations, but that was because the OL was bad again, like in the Montgomery early days at times, but Breece Hall was such an electric, home-run-hitter that their YPP numbers on rush plays were elite, while they were generally underwhelming in the raw rushing volume metric. Their pass offense is the more impressive of the pair on paper, but it was a roller coaster experience with Brock Purdy on both a game-to-game and snap-by-snap basis. Sacks – great, protecting football – great, red zone offense – elite. Third down conversions – terrible. The defense was excellent. They have a bunch of really experienced and talented players at all levels. They were excellent against the run and pass. Sacks – great, third down defense – great, red zone defense – exceptional. Forcing turnovers – bad. Net punt and net kickoffs were a disaster, and that cost them on numerous occasions, but the rest of the special teams were a clear strength. The offense moves slow and they were very disciplined.
As I mentioned before, I think that Clemson could lay an egg in this bowl. Either team is capable of that, for different reasons, but I really do think ISU will be focused and they are far more stable, assuming they don’t get a late rash of opt-outs. I prefer Iowa State in the game, but I want to wait a bit and see how the opt-outs shake out on both sides, as well as see who Clemson is going to hire in permanent roles and also see who will be tasked with coordination in this game. If I don’t end up with anything on the side or total in this one, I’ll make my peace with that. I actually would have a slight over lean as well. This is a pretty low total for this type of bowl game and a CU offense that showed well down the stretch and an ISU offense that will be facing a Venables’-less defense and has been pretty consistent in their scoring all year. After their typical nightmare starts against teams like Northern Iowa and Iowa every year, they were only held to 21 points or less one time. It wouldn’t take very heroic efforts for either team to get into low 20’s in this one and get over the hump, even if both defenses are their team’s strengths. I’ll go with ISU 27-24. It could end 17-16 and I would have neither issue nor surprise with that outcome, but I think there are a few factors that could lead to this being slightly more open than the current total indicates. If I don’t do anything pre-game, I may look for a live over opportunity.
Alamo Bowl (9:15 PM EST, ESPN):
Oregon v Oklahoma (TEXAS – -4.5/61)
Plays: None now
This will be the 29th time that the Alamo Bowl is played. Oregon last played in this bowl in the 2015 season. They lost to TCU in 3OT. Including that game, the Big 12 has gone 5-1 over the PAC12 in the last five. Oregon is 1-2 in their last three bowls, but they won’t have their head coach in this game. Oklahoma, too, will be without their head coach in this one. They, too, have gone 1-2 in their last three bowls.
I can’t handicap this game. Opt-outs, transfers, disappointing finishes of seasons, and new coaching staffs abound for both teams. If these teams were both full strength, I would likely side with Oklahoma. They have a massive edge at QB with Caleb Williams likely staying in Norman and playing in this game. The Sooners secondary is dreadful, but Anthony Brown may be worse. The Sooners rush defense should hold up decently. I simply don’t have the energy or desire to fully flesh-out who is in this game, who is out, and who cares? I’ll just guess it’s something like 34-30 Oklahoma.
Thursday, December 30th:
Duke’s Mayo Bowl (11:30 AM EST, ESPN):
UNC v South Carolina (CHARLOTTE – +8.5/58.5)
Plays: UNC -7 (Would personally need -7 to play for full size wager)
Finally, a bowl game that has assumed the best nomenclature of its existence. This has been a tire bowl, car maintenance bowl, department store bowl, and now it’s most enlightened stage of evolution, a condiment bowl. UNC has played in this bowl four times and is 1-3. UNC is 1-1 in their last two bowls and Mack Brown is an impressive 14-9. South Carolina is 1-2 in their last three and they missed a bowl last year. I think both teams will be happy enough to play in this game. I assumed that Sam Howell would miss this game. It makes no sense for him to play in it, but he appears to be committed, and I think that speaks to the probable state of mind of his club. “There was a lot of speculation out there,” Howell told reporters on Monday. “All the advice I got was probably to not play in the bowl game and everyone probably expected me not to, so I just wanted to end all that and let everyone know that this is what I want to do and I’m here for this team. There was actually a lot of thought put into how I wanted to get that information out there. I wanted to do something kind of funny… Honestly, it wasn’t really a decision to be made when it came down to playing in the bowl game,” he said. “I just love this team. I love playing football, that’s the main thing. I love this sport. So it wouldn’t sit right for me to not play in the bowl game… The reality of it is I am here for my team,” Howell said. “I’m not doing this just because I want to show people that that’s what I’m about. That’s just truly who I am. I pride myself on being a good teammate and always being here for these guys. It just wouldn’t sit right for me to give up on the season no matter what’s at stake.”
I have been wanting to fade South Carolina in a bowl for quite some time. I’m shocked they even made a bowl. This team is junk. Their offense is a dumpster. They don’t have a single redeeming quality, and I mean that. There is not a single area or metric where they come close to average. They are bottom 20 nationally in points scored, rush offense, fumbles, turnovers, third downs, and red zone. They averaged 19 PPG this year and were held to 23 or less in 9 of their 11 games against FBS foes. UNC’s defense stinks. They give up 34 PPG. That’s why they finished 6-6 with a R1 QB and a top 10 national WR. In fairness, the ACC had some wicked offenses this year and it was mainly the top dawgs that ripped the Heels. South Carolina’s offense is more along the lines of VT, Ga St, Duke, and Wofford – who scored 17, 17, 7, and 14. I don’t know which scrub will start at QB for SC, and I don;t really care. This is one of the most significant QB mismatches of any bowl game. The largest mismatch of this game is the UNC rush offense against the USCe rush defense. SC’s pass defense is excellent on paper, but much as we saw with Georgia when they played a team capable of actual passing with an NFL WR, they folded like a Denver omelette. SC played one offense that is somewhat similar to UNC this year and they gave up 45 to the Vols in a 25 point loss. It’s hard to trust UNC with as disappointing as they’ve been this year, but I’m willing to back Howell in his final college game against a dreadful SC team. Be prepared to see Mack Brown get a mayonnaise bath as the clock hits zeros. We will get meme and GIF fuel to take us through a cruel winter. 35-23 Heels.
Music City Bowl (3:00 PM EST, ESPN):
TENNESSEE v PURDUE (NASHVILLE – +4/63)
Plays: UT +2.5 & Over 58.5 (Good at -4 & Over 63)
This bowl first got going in 1998. Virginia Tech walloped Bama in that game. My how far they’ve come. The SEC is 9-12 all time in this game while the B1G is 3-4. UT last played in this game in 2016 where they beat Nebraska 38-24. Purdue played Auburn in this game in 2018 where they dropped a nailbiter 63-14. The Vols are 4-0 in their last four bowls. Josh Heupel is 1-2 in bowls. Purdue is 1-1 in their last two bowls and Jeff Brohm is 4-1. I think that both teams will generally want to be playing in this game. Tennessee will be playing in front of a big UT crowd in their home state and Purdue will be without their top-60 NFL draft picks in George Karlaftis and David Bell as they opted-out.
I took UT +2.5 and Over 58.5 as several of my super early bets before there was a legitimate market. The lines didn’t make sense to me at the time, and they look even sillier now as they sit nearly a TD off on each, both moving in my favor. I think the Vols present the second legitimate offense that Purdue will have faced all season. They gave up 59 points to Ohio State in a 28-point loss. The Big 10 West is a mockery this year. Fortunately, Purdue’s pass offense and solid, albeit inflated due to terrible schedule, defense got them to a bowl at 8-4. With Bell and George-K opting out, they are going to feel that pain significantly. I like Purdue’s QB and he knows this system. Tennessee is somewhat similar to Purdue in that they benefited from playing a ton of trash offenses in the SEC East. Pittsburgh, Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama, and Georgia comprise five very good offenses of differing styles, and they scored 41, 38, 31, 52, and 41 against the Vols. UT gave up 30 PPG on defense but scored 37. I don’t expect a one dimensional, Bell-less Purdue offense to touch the top ends of those numbers, but I could see them cresting 30. Teams have chosen to attack the Vols secondary with volume and that is the name of the game for Purdue. UT moves at warp speed and Purdue is slightly below average, and I expect a game with an above average amount of snaps. Purdue only allows 21 PPG, but that’s a mirage. Tennessee is capable of nearly doubling that number and hitting their season average. This game will be played in an outdoor venue, so bad weather would adversely impact the total, but it would kill Purdue as they can’t run a lick. Assuming the weather holds up, I’ll stick with the over. I’ll take the Vols 40-30.
Peach Bowl (7:00 PM EST, ESPN):
PITT v MICH ST (ATLANTA – -1.5/60)
Plays: Mich State +3.5 & UNDER 64 (Prefer Under 60 of the two at current)
This is another game where I’ll just get right to it. Once I saw that Pitt OC Mark Whipple was resigning from Pitt, I read the writing on the wall that Kenny Pickett was highly unlikely to play in this bowl game. The combo of Whipple and Pickett are amongst the most significant duos for their team success as any pair in college football. While Pickett hasn’t formally made a decision, I would say I’m 80% confident that he will sit. The dropoff from him to the current form of whoever replaces him is massive. Couple that with the loss of a great playcaller, and it’s reasonable to expect this offense to look more like a NARD DOG offense of old, when they were lucky to throw for 2 passing TDs in a game. That was a banner game. Keep in mind, Pickett never threw for more than 13 TDs in a season through four seasons where he played in a total of 39 contests. Now, Pickett is being mocked as a top-15 pick in the NFL Draft. Is this the type of system that takes four full years to master? What will the system and scheme be without Whipple? Do they use a couple of QBs in this game? I know many were extremely excited to see Pickett carve up a historically bad MSU secondary, but it appears we won’t get to see that. Their run game is average at best and I think the pass offense will regress to average at best in this game, even against a poor Sparty secondary. So how does Pitt’s defense matchup with Sparty’s offense? GREAT. They are tough as heck to run the ball on and you beat them with a vertical passing attack. Sparty is all run and they are an average passing offense. They do create big plays in the passing game, which should be very helpful in this game, but most types these run heavy teams hit big plays it’s because defenses have to commit all resources to stopping the run and they suck down and get popped. Pitt naturally plays with some extra help in the box, so this is what they are willing to do – force teams to throw to beat them. If Whipple and Pickett were in, I would share the excitement about the Pitt passing game against Sparty and I would really like the general defensive matchup for Pitt. Well, I think the former issue hurts Pitt a lot on offense while they should still be solid on defense in a good matchup. If Pickett plays, I’ll prob just buy off my positions, assuming I’m in front of the computer when news drops, and see what happens. NARD DOG may just totally take the air out of things here as his primal, defensive nature takes over. In fairness, Pitt’s offense hasn’t been very good in their past two games at full strength, being held to 333 and 385 yards against Cuse and Wake. Sparty wins 27-23.
Las Vegas Bowl (10:15 PM EST, ESPN):
WISCONSIN v ARIZONA STATE (LAS VEGAS – +7/42)
Plays: None now (Lean Wisconsin and UNDER)
The Vegas Bowl will make it’s 29th appearance this year. They generally do a good job of nabbing at least one team that is close by Vegas. Wisconsin, Boise State, and Utah have comprised at least one side in this one 17 times. ASU is the local draw in this one. They’ve played in the game twice in the past, losing both. Based on my surface level research, it appears that the B1G has never played in this game until now. Chryst is 5-1 in bowls in his last six, while Herm is 1-1. I can typically count on Wisconsin to show up and try hard in bowls. I think ASU has real flop potential.
I naively thought I might get a Wisconsin -3 in this game and I was ready to fire. Nope. Bummer. ASU will be without their elite RB and two starting corners in this game as they prep for the NFL. By my count, Wisconsin will be without only one guy, their starting safety, who is excellent, but that is injury-related. Kinda like my thoughts about Iowa State, Wisconsin is the type of program where the culture is such that you generally expect their guys to play in bowls and play hard. On paper, and I guess in sportsbooks too, this game has the potential to be the lowest scoring of any this season. There are zero significant edges for any offensive unit. The worst defensive unit for either team still prob ranks around top-30 nationally. I could only consider Wisconsin or the Under in this one. The loss of White and likely Trayanum who is in the portal are huge losses for ASU. That’s a chance Chip could still play, or so I’ve seen rumored, but it will be a nightmare matchup for their backs. Ngata likely gets the reps for ASU at RB, and he’s like a mini version of White, although not nearly as good nor accomplished. He was a sexy recruit, but White has been outstanding and I’m not buying Ngata’s ability to step in and crack this defense, though they prob throw him the ball a good bit. I like Wisconsin to win in something like a 23-13 game. I’m actively looking for odds on this being the lowest scoring bowl game. They will be chalk, or very close to it, but it’s one of about three or so that I think have tons of merit.
