Monday, December 27th:
Quick Lane Bowl (11:00 AM EST, ESPN)
WMU v Nevada (DETROIT – +3.5/59)
Plays: WMU -2.5 (-115) & -3 (Good to whatever)
No need for any riggaramole here. Nevada opened -7, or thereabouts, and I’m still kicking myself for not taking it. That seemed like a fine line to me, given the information that I had at the time. So, what could cause a ten point+ line swing in a bowl game?
Nevada lost their head coach to an in-conference rival, Colorado State. He left because the football program wasn’t serious about taking the measures necessary to take the next step. Norvell took his offensive coordinator, WR coach, OL coach, TE coach, special teams coordinator, strength and condition coach, and several other off-field coaches. This staff was pillaged. The ones that remained got this clear message: we don’t need ya. Okay, this is really bad news, but maybe not the end of the world… Since then, their NFL TE opted-out, one of their best WRs whose been injured entered the portal, and three other active (starting/role playing) WRs entered the portal. Their probable first round QB is likely going to have a procedure on his knee, so while he hasn’t formally opted out, he’s gone. His talented backup and future of the program is in the portal. Their best WR Romeo Doubs already declared for NFL, and while he hasn’t opted-out, he will as well. Well, maybe he could just play and catch (LITERALLY) 25 balls this game, but there is really very little upside other than a small recency bias bump for NFL evaluators. Do you think these guys are excited to go to Detroit for Christmas and play in a bowl game that starts at 11 AM local time? Oh, by the way, this is an 8 AM body clock kickoff for the Pack. I’m not even going to talk about WMU other than saying this will be a version of a home game for them where many of the players get to play in the stadium where they grew up dreaming of playing. I took WMU -2.5 and again at -3. While Hawaii could have an epic collapse, it’s possible that Nevada’s is even worse. 35-20 WMU.
Military Bowl (2:30 PM EST, ESPN):
BC v ECU (MARYLAND – +3/51)
Plays: None now
This will be the 13th Military Bowl. The last six matchups have featured the AAC vs. ACC. They’ve split the six at three wins apiece. ECU will be making their first bowl appearance since 2015. They’ve won one bowl game since 2008. This will be Mike Houston’s first bowl appearance, but he does have a lot of post-season playoff experience from his time at Lenoir-Rhyne, The Citadel, and James Madison. Boston College last played in a bowl game in 2019. They last won a bowl in 2016 and this will be Jeff Hafley’s first bowl game as a head coach. I think both teams will be happy to be playing in this game.
Boston College had a strange season. They lost their QB Phil Jurkovec for most of the season, and that was a big blow to their club. They went 4-2 in games he started, but he only beat one bowl team. They average 22 PPG on offense. They are a very good rush offense, but their pass defense is terrible, whether or not Jurkovec is playing QB or not. He’s 33-68-589-4-4 passing in his last four games since he returned from injury. If you toss out the game against GT, he went 20-48-289-2-4. That’s an average of 16 passes attempted per game for 96 passing yards on seven completions per game. He’s been great as a runner, but the passing attack has been a shell of itself since he returned. I suppose that this extra time off will help both him and this offense, but this is not the type of offense that I expected from him and the Eagles. Jurkovec will return in 2022. I heard in a recent interview that his injury hasn’t been fully healed and his body kinda withered on him some as a result, but he plans to get that right for both the bowl and for next year. Boston College is saying all the right things in the lead up to the bowl. BC is an average offense in pretty much every way. They give up 24 PPG on defense. Their rush defense is the relative weakness, but it’s not like they are particularly bad in that area. It’s more that their pass defense is excellent, so the rush defense is challenged more and they don’t compare well statistically. They don’t sack the QB a lot or force a ton of turnovers, but they are good on third downs and in the red zone. They have a slow paced offense, are pretty good on penalties, and their special teams are slightly below average.
ECU finished the season 7-5. All five losses came to bowl teams and they beat two bowlers. They feature the man I coined back in 2018 as THE APPALACHIAN TIM TEBOW. Holton Ahlers has been a four years starter in college and he announced he will be back next year and will join the very, very, very rare fraternity of five year starting college QBs. So, that means he plays smart, disciplined football all the time, right? Eh, not so much. He’s a roller coaster experience in a human body. The Pirates average 30 PPG. They have balance on offense, but they are better at passing than running. They are an average rush offense and they have some good backs by G5 standards. Keaton Mitchell, in particular, has elite track speed and has had some jaw dropping plays this year. They have several good pass catchers as well. The combination of Ahlers having an inconsistent internal clock and the line not doing their jobs leads to them giving up lots of sacks. They turn the ball over a lot, they are really bad on third downs, but they usually find ways to score when they get down in the red area. They have an average defense that is very vulnerable against the run and better against the pass. That is not ideal in a matchup with a ground heavy offense like BC and their P5-sized OL. They don’t sack the QB well, but they force tons of interceptions. Their third down defense is elite and they are tough to score on in the red zone. ECU will have an advantage on special teams in this game. ECU doesn’t commit many penalties.
I’ve had a hard time reading both of these teams on a week in and week out basis. ECU is a weird program that made a habit of taking ACC scalps in recent years. While BC is certainly very beatable, I think many of the matchups favor BC in the game. This should be a slightly below average game in pacing. I’m having a hard time gauging how healthy Jurkovec may be in this game with the extra time to heal and improve his body. This game will be played outdoors in Maryland weather could potentially be a factor. We are still a bit early for an accurate forecast, but it’s something that I’ll keep an eye on. I have a lean to the under, but I haven’t acted on anything yet. I do think this should be a pretty close game, but I think a dogfight is more likely than a shootout. I’m not sure how much success ECU will have throwing the ball after I saw some of the struggles against Cincinnati. BC isn’t at that level, but they are better than the overwhelming majority of teams that ECU sees in the AAC. I’ll go with BC 27-23.
Tuesday, December 28th:
Papa John’s Bowl (12:00 PM EST, ESPN):
Houston v Auburn (BIRMINGHAM – +3.5/51.5)
Plays: None now
Some will call this Birmingham Bowl, perhaps the broadcast may even do that, it’s not. This is PAPA’s bowl. They’ve played this one fourteen times. The SEC has played in six of them, winning four times, including the last four. I can never remember how old the AAC is and who was in it when, but they have won about half of their recent trips to this bowl. While Auburn will play in front of a big home crowd, I doubt they are too excited to play in this one. Houston gets a chance to avenge their AACCG loss and get an SEC scalp, so I suppose they are the more motivated team. Holgo doesn’t seem to take bowls too seriously, though. He’s 2-6. Auburn is 1-3 in their last four games and Bryan Harsin is 3-2.
Houston went 11-2 this season and lost to Cincinnati in the title game. They average 37 PPG. They have a good QB in Clayton Tune and they rely on their passing attack to do most of their damage. Their run game isn’t great, and they should struggle in this matchup. After facing Cincinnati last week, they will enjoy this matchup against Auburn. Auburn has a lockdown corner in Roger McCreary. I’d imagine he will be a top-50 pick in the draft, and possibly a first rounder, so I’d imagine he opts-out of this game. That would be great news for Tune and Dell as well as their other talented group of pass catchers. Houston gives up tons of sacks, but they protect the ball, and are good on third downs and in the red zone. They move at a slow pace on offense. The Cougs give up 23 PPG on defense. They are really good against the run and pass, but stopping the run is their true strength. They are elite in all the categories of sacks, creating turnovers, third down defense, and red zone defense. They are good on special teams, other than on kickoffs.
Auburn very nearly upset Bama in the Iron Bowl. I tend to think that was their true bowl game and this more of a formality. One weird thing to note is that they fired Mike Bobo from his OC post. Well, that’s not weird, but they haven’t hired his replacement, and they may not do that anytime soon. They seem to be playing the long game and trying to find the best fit. That is probably wise. It hurts them in the bowl game and if I’m an offensive player being recruited by them, there is a 0% chance I would sign with them on ESD until I knew where things were headed. It gives me at least some pause about how serious they are treating this game. Let’s be honest, if you’re an Auburn fan, you don’t give a rip about this game. Maybe you wake up on game day and start getting pumped, but this game means nothing for your program. Bo Nix broke his ankle a few weeks ago and will miss this game. TJ Finley, who fought through the Iron Bowl with an injured ankle, should be healthier and he will get the start. He’s started for two SEC schools, and that’s probably two too many. He’s more of a Tulane QB. Auburn doesn’t have any eligible draft prospects on their offense aside from maybe a linemen or two, and the most recent report that I read is that a couple of them are mulling their futures. I think that would likely be more of discussion surrounding if they return next year and not opt-out, but it’s been kinda hard for me to get a ton of Auburn info regarding this game. Again, I think that speaks to the general interest level of the fanbase, which often provides a window into the soul of the team. Auburn scores 27 PPG on offense. 20 PPG in the two games that Finley started, and one of those games went 4OT. They are not going to pass the ball well at all in this game, and their run game is about two excellent SEC backs and a lot less about their team creativity or quality of the line. It’s just rumour as of this moment, but Tank Bigbsby is said to be in the portal as well. Bobo got canned, so maybe the offense changes, for the better or the worse, ‘tis the pregunta. The sack numbers aren’t bad, but that is really thanks to Bo Nix making magic numerous times. Auburn is tough to run on and I don’t imagine Hosuton does very well on the ground in this game. Teams prefer to attack them via the air, and assuming McCreary misses this game, it should be an even more inviting proposition. The Tigers allow 24 PPG on defense. They sack the QB but are one of the worst teams in the country at getting turnovers. They are very good on third downs and not as good in the red zone. Their special teams are very good across the board, other than FG kicking, which was bad against USCe and then impressive against Bama.
If I’ve learned anything from betting bowls for many years, not taking something in every game is typically wise. This is probably one of those games where I should avoid taking the current sides or total and look for props or go the live route. As of now, that’s my plan. If Holgo’s teams ever looked ready to play in a bowl, I’d probably take them, but I can’t trust them right now. Houston 27-23.
First Responder Bowl (3:15 PM EST, ESPN):
AFA v Ville (DALLAS – -1/55.5)
Plays: None now (AFA & Over Lean)
This will be year twelve of the First Responder. It typically features a team from Texas and there have been some nice turnouts. I doubt there will be much of a crowd at this game. You may remember this bowl game from 2018 when BC and Boise was ruled a no contest. There was a nasty weather cell in the area and they just quit the game. Troy Calhoun is 5-5 in bowl games and AFA 2-0 in the most recents. Ville is 2-1 in the last three and Satterfield is 4-0 all time in bowls. I suppose both teams will be glad to go bowling, but I tend to think Ville, especially on defense, won’t be wild about the matchup.
AFA is a triple option offense. They move super slow and they pound the pig. They average 31 PPG on offense. They protect the ball, convert lots of 3rd and 4th downs, but they aren’t great in the red zone. On defense, they give up 20 PPG. Their rush defense is their strength. I generally feel the same way about every service academy secondary every year: they do well in most games, but if they ever face a team capable of passing with good athletes, they can be had. Well, AFA faced very few teams capable of good passing with good athletes. Three teams qualify this year: Utah State, Boise State, and Nevada. They gave up 49, 17, and 39 (24 in regulation). That’s 30 PPG, removing the OT’s. None of those are apples-to-apples comps with Ville, but I tend to focus on those teams and their games first. Their defense is best at sacking the QB and playing red zone defense. They are average forcing turnovers and getting third down stops. They have slightly below average special teams and are very disciplined.
Ville has a fun offense. They are led by their dual-threat QB Cunningham. I’ve talked a lot about him all year and his importance to this offense, so I’ll attempt to be brief and not rehash a ton. They average 32 PPG. Their run game, behind Cunny especially, is their bread and butter, but they are an average statistical passing offense that relies on big plays. They do have some serious speed at WR, but the group as a whole is inconsistent. They use a mismatch TE really well in Ford. Whenever they get down near the goal line, they have a little play that they run to him that I’m pretty sure has never been stopped in a practice or game. Sacks, turnovers, red zone – all excellent. Third down conversions, not great, as they are in a rare spot where their typical zone running scheme to their backs just doesn’t work well this year. They will need Cunningham to do it all. It’s not a good matchup to run the ball traditionally, but Cunningham’s speed could cause issues in space. They give up 29 PPG on defense. I don’t think highly of their run or pass D. They do a pretty good job getting to the QB, which wont matter here, they don’t force many turnovers, which probably will matter here. They are good on third downs and bad in the red zone. Special teams are pretty average and penalties are pretty average. They won’t go as slow on offense as AFA, but I don’t expect this to be a high-snap game.
I’ve had two leans in this game: AFA and the Over. My hangup with the over is the lack of pace. Taking an over with two ground heavy teams that operate at a slow tempo can feel like a huge mistake after about 15 real time minutes of game play. That said, it’s possible that both of these teams rip off tons of big plays. For AFA it would come from Ville not knowing what they are doing against the option. I don’t think they will be particularly prepared or excited to take on this scheme. For Ville, the big plays will come with Cunninham connecting with a couple legit 4.4 guys that AFA can’t run with and also on Cunninham getting outside the pocket and ripping off huge chunks. One question that I don’t have the answer to, will AFA’s knowledge of stopping the option and eye discipline carry over to an offense like Ville’s? That kinda helps me lean towards AFA and scares me a bit on the over. AFA has scored 31 or more in five of their last six bowl games. I kinda have a few ideas on props for this game, so I may just stay off the side and total for now and see if I get what I want on props. 31-28 AFA.
Liberty Bowl (6:45 PM EST, ESPN):
Miss State v Texas Tech (MEMPHIS – +9/59.5)
Plays: None now (Lean Miss State)
This will be the 63rd edition of the Liberty Bowl. Mississippi State has played in this bowl four times in their history, going 3-1. I don’t think Texas Tech has ever played in this one. This will be their first bowl trip since 2017. They lost 2 of 3 under Kingsbury, but this is an interim staff led by OC Sonny Cumbie. This is a weird one. He took the HC job at Louisiana Tech, but he’s staying to coach them in this game. There’s gotta be a big financial incentive to him doing so, I’d think? I think the players will be excited about Joey McGuire and his new staff, but that won’t be who’s calling shots in this game. It’s hard to gauge their motivation. Mike Leach is 8-8 in bowls and State is 1-2 in their last three. I get the sense that neither team has anything to lose. That could result in an open, fun game, or a total snoozer.
Miss State has an air raid offense. They averaged 29 PPG behind their dink and dunk air raid. They obviously give up a lot of sacks, but they are pretty good at protecting the football. They are excellent on third downs and average in the red zone. They have a major issue at kicker. State gave up 27 PPG, but they are actually a very good defense. Sorry, I’ll stop saying that soon. Their rush defense is as good as their pass offense, but their pass defense isn’t bad either. They’ve faced some really good pass offenses and are still respectable, especially when you adjust for opposition. State is average or below average in creating turnovers, third down defense, and in the red zone. Punting is really bad as well as FG kicking, but kickoffs are fine and kick return is a serious weapon. They are undisciplined and commit tons of penalties. They are generally a below average paced offense but will use some tempo when Leach sees fit.
Texas Tech went 6-6 this year. They went 1-4 in their last five games. They averaged 30 PPG on offense. They are an average rush offense and good pass offense. Those are the general reflections from the stats, but when they went with Donovan Smith at QB, they averaged 217 pass YPG. They averaged 115 YPG rushing in their final four when Smith was at QB. Their 332 yards per game with him at QB would have ranked 110th nationally (unadjusted). That is where SDSU ranked, if you are looking for a comparison. They scored 22 PPG. They gave up 35 PPG in that span and went 1-3. That was against Oklahoma, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and Baylor, so that’s a really tough four game stretch and should be noted. They give up 33 PPG on defense. Their rush defense is okay, which doesn’t matter in this game, and their pass defense is terrible. They don’t sack the QB, create turnovers, get off the field on third downs, or keep anyone from scoring. They have great special teams, perhaps one of the best units I’ve covered thus far. They are a below average paced offense and they don’t commit many penalties.
I’ve been really tempted to play Miss State in this game. It’s been hovering around dead numbers, so I’ve been hoping to see a -7 pop up, but no luck yet. I think State’s defense is well built to stop Tech and I don’t see Tech’s secondary having much success against the State passing game. I’m likely going to play State in this game, but I’m not gonna rush it. I think it probably goes to -10 as opposed to -7, but one can dream. Total seems fine to me. 35-23 Bulldogs.
Sea World Bowl (8:00 PM EST, FOX):
NC State v UCLA (SAN DIEGO – +1/60)
Plays: None now (Lean NC State and Over)
This will be the 43rd running of the Sea World Bowl. It will be the first time that a football game will be played at Petco Park in San Diego. The city previously had some sort of ban being placed on games being played there but it was lifted. The ACC has never played in this bowl, to my knowledge, but the PAC12 has been well represented. Unfortunately, they are 7-18 in the game and they’ve lost their past five trips. NC State is 1-2 in their last three bowls, losing to Kentucky last year 23-21. Dave Doeren is 4-3 in bowl games for the Pack. UCLA hasn’t bowled since 2017. The majority of Chip’s recruits have never played in a bowl. Chip is 2-2 in bowls. I doubt that either team is particularly well represented in this game. Even though it’s in San Diego, I could see NC State have as many or more fans there. Ringing in the New Year in San Diego doesn’t sound bad. I don’t see a huge motivation edge for either team.
I’m going to get right to it. Things should be pretty even in this game. The biggest edge for either team will be the NC State pass offense against the UCLA pass defense. I see a relative stalemate in most other areas of significance. UCLA has the better offense by a slight margin but NC State has the better defense by a larger margin. I lean to NC State in this game because of the aforementioned matchup edge with their passing attack. I think both teams should score some points in an average paced game. This game is right on the cusp of me taking either NC State or the Over. I’m going to wait a bit on this one and decide if I want to take anything. I’ll call it 34-30 Pack.
Guaranteed Rate Bowl (10:15 PM EST, ESPN):
WVU v MINN (PHOENIX – -4/45)
Plays: None now
This is game number 32 for the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. The Big 12 has historically been exceptional in this one. They are 14-3 all time while the B1G is 4-6. The Big 12 has won their last five. WVU is 1-3 in their last four bowl games. They won a bowl game last year, bringing Neal Brown’s record to 4-0. Minnesota is 4-0 in their last four bowls, but they didn’t go to one last year. PJ Fleck is 3-2 in bowls. I don’t know how excited either team is about this game.
WVU went 6-6 this season. I didn’t watch them very often, but they were a weird team. Their offense was generally pretty poor. They only averaged 23 PPG. Their rush offense and run blocking stunk for the second consecutive year. They have a very good back in Leddie Brown, but his line and play caller failed him. They are a sightly above average passing offense. They give up lots of sacks. They are slightly below average with protecting the ball and converting third downs. They are excellent in the red zone, but they kick lots of field goals. The ‘Neers have a pretty good defense. They give up 27 PPG. They are a very good rush defense and average pass defense. They get after the QB pretty well but turn the ball over too much. They are good on third downs and in the red zone. FG kicking their strength on special teams and they are average or below average in all other areas. They run a slow paced offense.
Minnesota is one of the slowest paced offenses in the country. They average 26 PPG on offense. They are a run heavy offense but they stink at passing the ball. Like most low volume pass offenses, they hit some big plays, but are bad. Sacks, turnovers, third downs, and red zone – all good. Their defense is the reason they are bowling. They allow 18 PPG and have one of the best defenses that I’ve covered through all of my previews thus far. In fairness, they’ve played some trash offenses, but WVU qualifies as one as well. They aren’t remarkable sacking the QB, forcing turnovers, or in the red zone. They are excellent on thor downs. Their special teams is good across the board.
This is going to be a close, low-scoring rock fight. I have no major disagreements with the spread or total. I tried to take Minnesota -3 but missed it, and I’ve decided to pass on anything higher than that. I think that this game plays out like an NFL game, so I would need a clean number to get in the ring. I don’t see any major edges for an offense in this game. It’s easier for me to trust the Minnesota ground attack than anything else. WVU went 2-6 against bowlers. Minny went 4-2 against bowlers. I’ll say the Gophers win 24-17.
