Monday, December 20th:
Myrtle Beach Bowl (2:30 PM EST, ESPN)
ODU v TULSA (MYRTLE BEACH – -9.5/52.5)
Plays: None now
This will be the second time the Myrtle Beach Bowl is played. Last year, App State mowed down North Texas 56-28. ODU is bowling for the second time in program history. They won the Bahamas Bowl in 2016 against EMU 24-20. Philip Montgomery has taken Tulsa to three bowl games in their history. He is 1-2 in those games, losing to Miss State in the Armed Forces Bowl last year, 28-26. Both teams should be happy to go bowling, while it’s reasonable to assume that ODU is slightly more motivated.
ODU is led by FR QB Hatden Wolff. He’s a prototypical pocket passer that doesn’t add anything with his legs. I haven’t watched ODU at all this year. I’ve seen at least a game or a portion of a game for the majority of FBS teams this year, but I don’t recall seeing the Monarchs. They averaged 27 PPG. They started the year 1-6 and won six straight to make a bowl. They went 1-5 against bowlers and benefited from a weak back-end schedule. Their offense doesn’t appear to be particularly impressive on the ground or air. They give up a lot of sacks, they turn it over a lot, and they aren’t good in the red zone. They are above average on third down conversions, and that’s probably the best thing I have to say about their offense. I picked up their RB Blake Watson off waivers in several fantasy leagues and he was a nice addition to my team. He played in ten games and eclipsed 100 yards in six of those games. ODU gave up 29 PPG on defense. Their rush defense is better than their pass defense by a pretty significant margin. I’m not sure how often they were really challenged on the ground, but it’s clear from their stats that is their strength on D. They don’t sack the QB well, they are above average in turnover creation, they are bad at getting off the field on third downs, but are above average in the red zone. Their coverage teams on punt and kickoff were poor but the rest of their special teams look okay. They are heavily penalized. The offense operates at a pretty high tempo.
Tulsa was an odd team this year. They gave Oklahoma State, Ohio State, and Cincinnati all they could handle in losses. They also lost to UC-Davis and Navy. They went 2-4 against bowl teams. Their offense uses tempo and they are capable of running and passing successfully. They averaged 27 PPG, the same as ODU, but I feel pretty comfortable saying that their offense is significantly better than the Monarchs’. They have a solid group of skill players. They don’t give up many sacks but turnovers plagued them. That, combined with poor red zone play, are two reasons why they didn’t score more than 27 PPG. Tulsa allows 28 PPG on defense, but they are probably better than that. Again, an odd team. They are above average stopping the run and defending the pass. They are above average sacking the QB, on third downs, and in the red zone. They’ve got a great FG kicker, but the rest of their special teams are poor.
Without having seen much of ODU, I’m hesitant to get involved in this game. Based on what I think I know about both of these teams, if each team were to play their best games, Tulsa would boat race the Butterflies. That being said, we only saw Tulsa win one game by 10+. ODU lost three games by that margin, but those came against Wake, Liberty, and WKU. This is a standalone game, so I’m sure I will find a way to get some involvement, but it won’t likely be on the side or total, assuming the numbers stay relatively static. There should be a ton of tempo in this game. I’ll go with Tulsa 30-20, but this is probably one of my least confident handicaps and games that I’m least interested in watching.
Tuesday, December 21st:
Tater Bowl (3:30 PM EST, ESPN):
KENT ST v WYOMING (BOISE – -3/59)
Plays: Wyoming -2.5 (Good at -3 or better)
This will be the 25th running of the Tater Bowl. I love this game. It often features snow and ice and it’s generally hilarious to watch. What a reward, you won enough games to go bowling, how about a trip to Idaho in late December!? That sure hits different than a summer fly fishing trip on the Snake River. Kent State won their first bowl as a program in 2019. They were 0-3 in three prior trips. Wyoming is 2-1 in bowls under Craig Bohl. Their last trip was also in 2019 when they beat Georgia State 38-17. While Bohl has only taken the Pokes to three bowls, he has a lot of post-season experience from his time at NDSU. He won three national titles and went 14-1 in playoff elimination games. Wyoming last played in the Tater in 2017 when Josh Allen was QB. He played hurt and many NFL pundits said he was unwise to play in the game, but he put on a show and was named the MVP before being selected in the first round by the Bills. I think both teams will be happy to play in this game, but Wyoming is likely better equipped and slightly happier of the two.
Kent State was dismantled near the warm hearth of Ford Field in the MACCG. Northern Illinois won 41-23, but they were actually outgained in the game. They hogged the ball for 40 minutes and ran for 266 yards. That bully ball strategy paid off as Crum was held to 27 passing yards in the first half and it allowed NIU to run 76 plays to KSU’s 62. Kent State has a great dual-threat QB in Dustin Crum. They have good skill talent around him and they are one of the fastest moving offenses in college football. They average 30 PPG on offense. They are really a run-first offense, but they are capable of throwing the ball effectively as well. They give up tons of sacks, but they protect the football, are average on third downs, and leave too many points on the field in the red area. They are a really fun offense. This is where things get bad for them: defense. They allow 37 PPG. They force a lot of turnovers, but otherwise, they are terrible in every facet. Teams can pass or run on them, just whatever they want, they can do. They are bad on special teams and heavily penalized. In summation: great offense, bad everything else.
I think Wyoming is built similarly to NIU on offense to hog the ball and pound the pig down the Flashes’ gullett. The Wyoming rush offense against the KSU rush defense is amongst the greatest mismatches of the entire bowl slate. Considering that this game often features inclement weather, the ground assault would travel really well. That’s especially true for a team from Wyoming, where 30 degrees and flurries is Kentucky Derby weather. If you’ve never seen Wind River, stop now, and go watch it. Elite film. If you have, you know that it takes a certain type of courage to grow up in Wyoming and they are going to be physically and mentally ready for this one, no matter the conditions. It’s no peach living in Ohio, for tons of reasons, but I doubt they are going to handle inclement weather as well as Wyoming, if that’s the card we get dealt. Wyoming runs the football really well, both with the QB and RBs, but they don’t offer much in the way of passing. When they get big plays, it’s usually a ball to Isaiah Neylor. They don’t give up many sacks, turn it over an above average amount, are very good on third downs, and average in the red zone. They allow 23 PPG on defense. Their weakness comes in rush defense, which is surprising, but they are nails against the pass. They are below average sacking the QB and pretty average in forcing turnovers, getting off the field on third downs, and in the red area. They are a great team on kick return, but generally poor in the rest of their special teams. They are disciplined and move at a slow, deliberate pace.
I like this matchup for Wyoming. I think the edge that they will enjoy with their rush offense against the KSU rush defense is the trump card. I do think that Kent State will also have success running against Wyoming, but probably not as much. Wyoming’s secondary should negate a lot of what KSU wants to do through the air. I’m not sure how the Wyoming passing attack will do against the KSU secondary. That’s not because the KSU secondary is any good, they stink, but so does the Wyoming passing game. I feel most confident that Wyoming will be able to do as they please on the ground, and as I previously mentioned, if there are elements in play, they will be best built to handle them. Wyoming has the premier pro prospect in this contest in LB Chad Muma. From Wyoming News, “For some top NFL prospects, the decision to play in a bowl game or preserve their body for the next level is a difficult choice. That wasn’t the case for senior linebacker Chad Muma. Muma, who still has one season of eligibility remaining, declared for the NFL draft last month when he accepted an invitation to the Senior Bowl. From the beginning, however, he says sitting out the bowl game was never an option. “It wasn’t difficult at all,” Muma said. “I knew from the beginning of the season, if we made a bowl game, I was going to play. It was never really a question in my mind.” While some NFL pundits might raise their eyebrows at such a decision, Muma’s teammates weren’t surprised whatsoever. “We all come here to play football, and that’s what we’re going to do,” Crall said. “It doesn’t matter our status or anything like that. We’re going to play in the game, because that’s what we came here to do.” I think that speaks to the mentality of this team when the best player never considered not playing. I took Wyoming -2.5 in this game. I’m glad that Kent State won their first program bowl in 2019, and I also cashed in on that one, so there shouldn’t be that extra motivation to get one in this game. I don’t think either team is particularly good, but I trust Wyoming more than KSU, and a repeat of KSU’s championship game could be on tap. I’ll go with Wyoming 35-27.
Frisco Bowl (7:30 PM EST, ESPN):
UTSA v SDSU (FRISCO, TX – +2.5/49.5)
Plays: UTSA -2.5 (Good at -2.5 or better)
This will be the fourth running of the Frisco Bowl. A CUSA team has only played in this game once, and won in the inaugural contest. The MWC is 0-2. UTSA will be playing in their third ever bowl game and seeking their first win. SDSU goes bowling every year, they’d played in ten straight prior to COVID-20. Most of the players on this team are 1-1 in bowl games. Brady Hoke’s teams are 2-3 in bowl games all-time. I can say with confidence that UTSA will be the significantly more motivated team as they try to cap their Cinderella season with their first bowl win in front of what should look like a home crowd. It’s a 300 mile drive between San Antonio and Frisco, and I believe the Road Runners will be well-represented.
UTSA just beat WKU to win their conference. They finished 12-1 with their only loss coming in a lame duck game against North Texas. They went 6-1 against bowl teams. The Runners average 37 PPG and have a balanced offense. They prefer to run the ball and will do that with impunity when they can, but they are also capable of throwing the ball and when the situation dictates, they do that well. They have a very good group of pass catchers by G5 standards. They have a dual-threat QB and an elite RB. The line is excellent. They don’t give up sacks, they protect the football, and are very good on third downs and in the red area. They operate at an average pace. On defense, they allow 26 PPG. They have an excellent rush defense, but they are very vulnerable in the secondary. They sack the QB, force turnovers, get off the field on third downs, and are solid in the red zone. They play very good special teams and are a disciplined team in terms of penalties.
SDSU played in their conference championship against Utah State and got throttled 46-13. While that was an extremely unjust and cruel final score, they finished the regular season with a bad loss.
Martin : Heard about what happened. Heard there’s one still missing.
Cory Lambert : No. No one’s missing.
Martin : How did he go out?
Cory Lambert : With a whimper.
While that is a great exchange from Wind River (ELITE film), it also generally encompasses my thoughts on the Brady Hoke experience. SDSU has a pretty lousy offense. They average 25 PPG. They have an average rush offense and a lousy passing attack. They are a run first team, and if they can’t run, they should generally find themselves in trouble. SDSU found themselves down 16-3 at Home to Boise in the final regular season game. They were getting trash QB play and elected to give the keys over to Jordon Brookshire. He played the game of his life and they ran away with that game. Reality set in against Utah State and he was benched after doing nothing as a passer or runner. The Aztecs were 2-18 on third and fourth downs, committed nine penalties, and turned it over twice. SDSU was held to 178 yards and two FGs through three quarters. In fairness, they dealt with significant COVID issues in the week of prep and during the game. The reason SDSU had success this year is because of their defense. They allow 19 PPG. Their rush defense is a top five group in college football, and teams generally attack them via air as a result. They give up a lot of passing yards, but it’s generally volume related and not a lack of aptitude. They have a tenacious pass rush, are great on third downs, but they aren’t always great getting stops in the red zone. Their best player is their punter, who is the best punter I’ve ever seen in college. I believe he kicks their FGs as well, and isn’t great in that department. The ‘Tecs lack discipline and commit a lot of penalties. Their punter is another huge reason why they played in the conference title game. They aren’t a particularly impressive team, but this guy changes the game, nearly every game.
Neither team is going to be able to run the ball well in this game. Who does that hurt the most? SDSU without question. UTSA has a balanced offense and they are exponentially more capable of passing success than SDSU. While the SDSU secondary is WAY better than a terrible UTSA secondary, SDSU is truly one of the more inept passing attacks in college football. They got lucky against Boise and hit some really impressive plays, but I think the last game they played is more representative of their abilities. Aside from UTSA being able to foster a more threatening offense in this game, I think they are going to be extremely motivated and playing in what could amount to a home game. There aren’t tons of X’s and O’s advantages in this game. It’s a fairly even matchup, all things considered, but I rate UTSA Coach Jeff Traylor far higher than Brady Hoke and I think UTSA could provide an effort level in this game that rivals any team not playing in a NY6 bowl or the CFP semis. Motivation and intangibles mean a ton during bowl season, and I’m happy to lay 2.5 with the team that checks all of those boxes. This isn’t a “mortgage the farm” play, but it can be hard to find edges in bowl games, and I feel that I have in this one. Meep Meep.
Wednesday, December 22nd:
Armed Forces Bowl (8 PM EST, ESPN):
MISSOURI v ARMY (FT WORTH, TX – -3.5/58.5)
Plays: ARMY -3 -105 (Would need -3 to play)
This will be the 19th running of the Armed Forces Bowl. Army has played in this game three times during that span, winning all three. The most famous of those games was the 70-14 dismemberment of Houston in 2018. Jeff Monken is 3-1 in bowl games at Army. The program is 6-3 all time in bowls. Interestingly enough, Army has only played in one bowl game in their history when the margin of victory for either team was more than 7 points. Missouri last played in a bowl game in 2018. Drinkwitz has never coached them in a bowl. He’s head coached one bowl game in his career, at App State, where they won the Nawlins bowl in 2019. He’s actually 8-0 in bowl games, with seven of those coming as an assistant coach. I believe that both teams will be motivated to play in this game.
Army doesn’t need a lot of window dressing. They are a disciplined triple option attack. They move at a snail’s pace and relentlessly pound teams with the ground game. They take calculated risks on fourth downs, don’t turn the ball over, and are a great conversion offense. They’ve been average this year in the red zone. They score 33 PPG and went 5-3 against bowl teams this year. They allow 24 PPG on defense. They are a top-tier rush defense, but they don’t have the athletes at the back to hang with athletic pass catching groups. Does their opponent have a passing attack with tons of athletes? How does their opponent stop the run? Those are two questions that must be answered on each Army handicap. Aside from their lack of passing attack, the Army defense is dreadful in the red zone, that is their greatest weakness, as the lack of passing offense is baked-in for option teams.
Missouri’s offense is one player: RB Tyler Badie. If he can have room to operate, they are a good offense. If he’s limited in games, this is a very forgettable offense. He will likely try his hand in the NFL after this year, but my sense is that he won’t opt-out of the bowl game. I don’t know that to be true, but my hunch is that he plays. He said he “wants to”, whatever that means? The Tigers average 27 PPG on offense. Their passing attack has been inconsistent this year. They dink and dunk and have one of the least impressive collections of pass catchers in the SEC. While I would say that most SEC teams would present all sorts of trouble for Army, I don’t think that Missouri qualifies. They have a QB controversy in this game and as I’ve said all year, their receivers stink. If this program wants to get past a 6-6 ceiling, they gotta do something about the receivers. Missouri doesn’t give up many sacks and they protect the football. They are good at converting third downs and scoring points in the red zone. Missouri’s defense is their issue this year. They rank within the bottom ten rush defenses nationally, but it must be said that they made DRASTIC improvements over their final four games of the season. Will they be able to stop the option? I seriously doubt it. It takes a special kind of discipline to do so, and a trip down to Texas to get cut blocked for 35 minutes doesn’t strike me as high on the priority list for most 21-year-olds. It’s one reason why I think Service Academies generally do well in bowls, it’s just a psychological thing. Fifteen extra practices to get cut in practice and then get cut in a game. Not exactly a dream Winter while you manage finals. Missouri is terrible on third down defense and like Army, they don’t get any stops when a team gets close to the end zone. Missouri played a bunch of bowl teams and went 4-6 against them.
Regardless of Missouri’s incredible improvement against the run, I don’t think they rate to do great in this game. As I previously mentioned, they are a run first offense and that is a tough job against a great Army front. It’s possible that the sheer size of an SEC OL overwhelms them, but they’ve held up fine in the recent past against big hogs. I took Army -3 in this game. I doubt it’s a game where they could realistically be in contention to blow them out like the Houston We Have a Problem Bowl, but I like the matchups for the Cadets in this one. I have an under lean in the game, but I could also see how this thing gets nutty and neither team gets any stops in the red zone, so I’ll pass on the total. This game will be played outdoors on grass in Ft. Worth. Any type of weather cell that involves wind would benefit Army. It’s still too early to say if that will be the case, but I sure wouldn’t be mad if it were. Since returning from injury, Missouri QB Connor Bazelak is only averaging 137 passing yards per game and his completion percentage fell from 69 to 54%. The other options are inexperienced backups, albeit one, maybe two with talent. 31-24 Army.
Thursday, December 23rd:
Frisco Football Classic (3:30 PM EST, ESPN):
North Texas v Miami Ohio (FT WORTH – -3/54)
Plays: UNDER 55 (Would personally need 55 to play and I’m iffy on this bet)
This is a made-up bowl game that will be played as an impromptu pop-up. I don’t recall the reasoning, but here we are. Seth Littrell has been terrible in bowl games at North Texas. He’s lost by 7, 20, 39, and 28. No one on the roster has won a bowl game at North Texas. Their last win was in 2013. I believe they will be motivated to win a game that is a far better matchup for them than many of their recent contests. Miami Ohio doesn’t bowl very often. This will be their third appearance since 2010. They are 0-2 under Chuck Martin but played Miss State and ULL competitively in 2016 and 2019. Both teams should be motivated and compete in this game.
North Texas made a ton of improvements from 2020 to 2021. They actually improved a ton from the beginning of 2021 to the end. They beat an FCS team to open the year and then lost six straight and sat at 1-6. They won five in a row to close the show and made this makeshift bowl. They average 27 PPG and that is due to their philosophical shift to a dominant run offense. They pretty much abandoned throwing the football and instead relied on their line and talented backs to carry their water. They don’t give up sacks, they are pretty secure with the ball, pretty good on third downs, but they often bog down in the red zone. They are a fast paced offense. They give up 29 PPG on defense, but they are actually a better group than the way that reflects. They are better against the run than against the pass, but they don’t have major holes with either group. They sack the QB, aren’t great forcing turnovers, very good on third downs, and average in the red zone. They don’t have great special teams and they are heavily penalized. They went 2-5 against bowl teams.
Miami Ohio finished the year 6-6. They went 2-5 against bowlers. They average 28 PPG on offense and they don’t run the ball well. They rely on their passing attack to have success, and they are a moderately paced offense. They protect their QB and the football, but they are bad on third downs and in the red zone. They give up 25 PPG on defense. They don’t have a great defense, but like North Texas, they are solid across the board. Statistically, they are better against the pass than the run, but I actually think the rush defense can hold up pretty well in this game. They get after the QB and buckle down in the red zone, but they are pretty average creating turnovers and on third downs. There isn’t anything special about their special teams. They commit more penalties than they should.
I took Under 55 in this game. I tried for 56.5 when circa opened but the slow drip approach froze me out of great numbers on the bowl slate. I’m not sure how I really feel about the bet. I’m doing okay against the current market, but the more I dig into this one, the more I can see how things could go sideways. The game that is screwing me up is the Kent State game. I don’t have the full list of pace in front of me, but Kent State is the only team that I can see that MOH faced that operated at tempo, and there were 95 points scored in that overtime contest. The matchup against North Texas and Kent State are far from apples-to-apples, but that game is sticking in my craw. I think both defenses are better than both offenses in this game, but a MAC/CUSA under isn’t exactly a feel good story. There really aren’t any massive edges to be had in the game, as far as I can see, but I do think North Texas will rely heavily on the ground game which could help to offset some of their pace by keeping the clock churning and it’s been a long time since MOH has played a decent defense. The MAC was certainly not an impressive group of defensive teams this season. I am going to keep a close eye on this game for live betting purposes and may try to see what my options are. I’ve got a key number of 55, and was hesitant to even play it there. I think either team is capable of scraping out a close win, but I suppose I’ll go with MOH 28-24. If the weather holds up and this total took some downward movement, I may just try for the middle. I don’t know. I’m shook.
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl (7:00 PM EST, ESPN):
UCF v Florida (TAMPA – -6.5/55.5)
Plays: UCF/Florida Under 57 (Good at 55.5), UCF +7.5 (Will look to shoot for middle)
This will be the thirteenth running of the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl. The game has had multiple venues and various names, but this is either Beef O or Bad Boy Mowers to me. I won’t even speak the newest name. UCF is 1-2 in their last three bowls. Gus Malzahn is 2-5 in his career coaching bowls. UF is 3-1 in their last four bowls. Greg Knox will be the interim coach in the bowl game, as he was against FSU. I know that fans will be excited about this game. They’ve already sold out the venue. There was some discussion about a possible regular season deal between these two, but that hasn’t materialized and now the fanbases get an exciting bowl matchup in their home state. I think it’s fair to assume that UCF will be more motivated and they shouldn’t have many opt-outs, while Florida could have a few.
UCF’s offense was disappointing this year. They could have been really good if Dillon Gabriel stayed healthy, but he didn’t and now Mikey Keene is the QB1, and has been for most of the season. He’s not any good. UCF is all rush and not much pass. Against cellar dwellers, UCF did well on offense. Against any team with a defensive pulse, they didn’t impress me. Overall, they didn’t and don’t impress me. They average 29 PPG, but everything about this offense screams average. That’s what you get with a Gus Malzahn offense when you don’t have an elite QB running the show, and they don’t. He’s a turd burglar. So, the question becomes, how much success can they have running the ball and how many trick plays can Gus dial-up and execute? I really thought UCF was going to have a nasty rush defense, but things didn’t play out that way. They were much better against the pass than the run. They aren’t terrible against the run, but the big boys showed they could piece up the Knights. Louisville scored 42, Cinci 56, and SMU 55. They are very good at sacking the QB, forcing turnovers, and in the red zone. They are average on third downs. Their FG kicking situation is an abomination and they aren’t very good in any area of special teams. They are penalized an above average amount and they utilize a quick tempo on offense. It’s not as fast as they’ve gone in years’ past, but they like to move pretty quick.
UF was a maddening team this year. Mullen mismanaged the QB situation between Emory Jones and AR15. Well, Mullen is now gone and AR15 just had meniscus surgery, so it will be all Emory Jones (we think) in this one and they will have a makeshift staff. My bet is that they elect to run the football a bunch in this game, but I don’t have any inside intel about that. It just makes sense for them to go that route, both due to their personnel and the matchup against UCF. UCF just faced a dual-threat QB in Timmy McClain and did well in that game. It’s possible that Florida comes out and lays a total egg in this game. They are starting to see players hit the portal and opt-out, and Napier isn’t hands-on right now. He’s recruiting and building a staff. I don’t know how inspired Florida will be, and they are certainly a candidate for an egg. That’s too bad, because they matchup pretty well with UCF. On defense, they are much better against the pass than the run, but I think their defense could hold up just fine if they were both full-strength and fully motivated. Florida has sacked the QB well, but they don’t force many turnovers and they sure did their fair share of giving it away on offense. The Gators’ special teams are generally fine. They are undisciplined and commit a lot of penalties, which doesn’t inspire much hope that a lame-duck interim is going to get them to change their patterns.
Full disclosure. I wrote everything above a few days ago. I won’t get into specifics, but I was recently told there are potentially additional opt-outs for the Gators on offense that could have a significant impact on this game. I took Under 57 as it was a lean before, but when I started seeing some smoke in the distance with offensive personnel, I jumped in. I also took some UCF +7.5, but I plan to shoot for a middle and will likely buy back some Gators if the news drops that I think potentially could. I’ll go with UF 27-21.
Friday, December 24th:
Hawaii Bowl (8 PM EST, ESPN):
Memphis v Hawaii (Hawaii – +7/58.5)
Plays: Memphis -3 (Dealer’s choice on this one. I’d probably be fine at -7)
This is year 19 of the Hawaii Bowl. Memphis goes bowling every year. Ryan Silverfield is 1-1 in bowls at Memphis, but he won the Montgomery Bowl last year which stopped Memphis’ five game bowl slide. Hawaii has played in this game nine times and is 5-4 all-time. Todd Graham will be coaching his second bowl at Hawaii after beating Houston last season in the New Mexico Bowl. He’s 6-4 in his career. I’ll touch on this more in a bit, but I don’t see how either team cares about this game.
Memphis finished the season 6-6. They lost their starting QB in fall camp, and then his backup, Seth Henigan, played hurt for the majority of the home stretch. Memphis felt that pain as they went 2-3 in their final five games. He should be fully healthy for this game, and that is very significant for the handicap. Memphis runs a fast-paced attack that relies almost entirely on their passing attack. Their run game, typically a staple in most years, is really lousy this season. They’ve gotten poor OL play which has caused a lot of sacks and the limp noodle running game. Calvin Austin is one of the most dynamic receivers in the G5. He has NFL aspirations. He could opt-out of this game, but that would be dumb, unless his injuries are still nagging him as they did late in the year. He’s a day three pick and this game could mean he gets extra eyes on him, and if he plays, he will go bananas. The Tigers turn the ball over a lot and are bad in the red zone. They average 29 PPG and went 2-5 against bowlers. They give up 30 PPG on defense and they don’t have any outstanding qualities. Their rush and pass defense are poor. They are better on a per play basis than they appear to be on their raw volume numbers, but they aren’t a good defense. They are terrible on third downs, but good in the red zone. They are decent in their punting and return games, but they stink in all other phases of special teams. They don’t commit many penalties but their inability to make third downs and stop them often lead to them defending a ton of snaps and that can be their undoing.
Hawaii went 6-7 this year. They went 2-5 against bowl teams. They are staying home for a bowl game. I’ve been reading up on this team, and I’ll be frank: they are in terrible shape. Todd Graham is proving to be a disaster hire. I won’t detail everything that I’ve read, but these particular current player quotes were telling, “(Todd Graham) consistently crossed the line in terms of decency and respect (with the players)” … A lot of players want him fired, especially the starters… Me and a lot of others can truthfully say Graham has killed our love and passion for football…I would go as far to say it’s verbal abuse the way he talks to guys. … It’s personal. It’s not like, ‘Oh, you need to be faster.’ He’s calling guys useless, jackass and a sack of s–t… I had several conversations with my parents last year about quitting, dropping my scholarship, and being done with football after playing it my whole life… I’m probably not coming back this year because [Graham] has three more years. … It’s not like we have the money to buy him out. Most of the freshmen are either quitting or trying to transfer.” Graham addressed the media last week and said he’s taken steps to start the healing and address some issues. He’s not coming back from this. His starting QB, a Hawaii native, has entered the portal, and they will be starting a true freshman QB in this game. He’s lost this team, so I’m really not going to focus much on X’s and O’s, I don’t care. Bowl season is often about gauging motivation and Hawaii will have none. They don’t run the ball well and they rely on their passing game, which should take a huge step back with an inexperienced FR QB. Their defense may be worse than Memphis’, and their pass defense against the Memphis pass offense is one of the most significant mismatches of the bowl slate. They are going to get ripped through the air.
Hawaii has ten players in the transfer portal. A current player said that Graham has openly told them that they are a stepping stone for his path back to the NFL. How ready are his players to go to battle for him after fifteen practices they don’t want to be at and playing a “bowl” game at home in their high school stadium? Well, this quote is another doozy, “I see why he wants the bowl game so bad. It ain’t for the seniors. It ain’t for Hawaii. It’s for his reputation and the extra bowl game check.” I said this tongue and cheek to a friend, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Hawaii straight up protested the game and walked out when it came time for kickoff. I prob read too many fiction novels, but this game presents an opportunity for letdown that I don’t recall seeing many such instances in the past decade. I know that Memphis probably won’t care, but they don’t hate their coach and they just have significant matchup advantages in this game. Memphis -3 was the second or third bowl bet I took, as I knew that Hawaii was ripe for an all-time choke job in this game. I have no idea what number I would actually play this to, but I think at a minimum, Memphis -6.5 or -7 is worth at least some investment. If you are big on the psychological side of handicapping, they certainly could be a big play for you. I really wish Hawaii was playing a team that I knew would be focused, but I’m just relying on Memphis being more focused, their passing game advantage, and facing a FR QB will be enough to pay me off. The pace of this game is going to be blistering. It definitely is a top-3 matchup this year in terms of potential overall offensive tempo. Memphis wins 38-23.
Saturday, December 25th:
Camellia Bowl (2:30 PM EST, ESPN)
Ga St v Ball State (Montgomery, AL – +4.5/50)
Plays: None now
The Camellia Bowl is as old as time, but they’ve recently played this game for the past seven years. The Sun Belt is 4-2 in this series. The MAC is 2-3. Georgia State is 2-1 in their last three bowl games under Shawn Elliott. Ball State won their bowl game last year. They were 0-7 all-time prior to that win.
I’m going to give this game more attention than I’ll give it on *checks notes* middle of the afternoon on Christmas. I’m sure there will be 100 or 150 fans (players’ families) in attendance at this game and probably 250 household TVs tuned into the game. This game would be borderline unwatchable in any other time slot, but in the middle of Christmas Day?! There is one significant edge in this game and that is Georgia State’s rush offense against the Ball State rush defense. That is a huge mismatch in favor of GSU. I would probably play GSU if I could get a -2.5 or better, but I’ll just look to the prop market. OR choose not to be the lowest form of degenerate by watching/thinking about this game instead of seeing my dear ole Nana for the last time of her long, wonderful, selfless life. 28-23 Panthers.
