Friday, December 17th:
Bahamas Bowl (Noon EST, ESPN):
TOLEDO v MTSU (BAHAMAS – +10/52.5)
Plays: Toledo -7 (Pass above -7)
The Bahamas Bowl has provided some early Christmas presents over the years. It’s probably the bowl that players from small, underperforming schools get the most excited about. For many of these players, it will be their first time out of the continental US, and a memory they will cherish. CUSA is 4-2 SU over MAC in this bowl’s history.
Toledo’s last bowl trip was in 2018. It was actually to the Bahamas Bowl where they lost to FIU 35-32. In 2015, when Matt Campbell left for ISU, Candle coached the Boca Raton Bowl and they beat Temple 32-17. Since then, he’s gone 0-3, and this will be many player’s first opportunity to win a bowl game. Coming from Ohio, I believe they will be excited to get to the sun and fun of the Caribbean.
This will be Rick Stockstill’s ninth bowl game at MTSU. He is 2-6 so far. MTSU last played in a bowl game in 2018, where they lost 45-13 to App State in Nawlins. Under his guidance, they’ve played three MAC teams in bowls, and lost 31-14, 35-21, and 45-31. The MAC doesn’t win many bowl games, but when they do, it’s usually against the Blue Raiders.
Toledo generally beat the teams they were supposed to and lost in toss-ups or to teams they weren’t supposed to beat. They took Notre Dame to the wire in week two and lost 32-29 and finished 2-4 SU against bowlers. The Rockets are able to throw and pass, but when they are at their best, they are running with Bryant Koback. He ran for 100+ yards in their final five games of the year. He’s joined in the backfield by DQ Finn, a dual-threat QB that ran 100 times this season and accounted for 24 total touchdowns. Finn is a good protector of the football, throwing 1 INT to 16 TDs. He gets sacked quite a bit, but they don’t turn the ball over very often. They have an okay WR room, and they primarily target two receivers in Devin Maddox and Isaiah Winstead. The passing attack is slightly above average. Defensively, they are a good group. They don’t have any glaring weaknesses. They are slightly above average stopping the run and they are really good in pass defense. They only allow 22 PPG while scoring 35. Their special teams are generally poor. Punting and FG% are not good. The biggest weakness of their team is their discipline when it comes to penalties. They are the most heavily penalized team in the country at 9 per game for 75 yards.
MTSU went through four quarterbacks this season. They finished the season playing a TrFR QB in Nicholas Vattiato. He started the last four games of the season. He has some mobility, but he’s not a legit running threat as we’ve seen from some of Stockstill’s QBs in the past. He did a decent job of protecting the football, other than one implosion game against WKU where he threw five picks. MTSU has a dink and dunk spread offense. They spread it around a bunch to a decent group of pass catchers, by CUSA standards. They are very one dimensional. They can’t run a lick. They don’t have any backs that average 5 YPC. They don’t give up tons of sacks as a team, but they are really loose with the football and are one of the most turnover prone offenses in the country. MTSU has an average defense. Their strength is stopping the run and they are more susceptible against the pass. They rely on creating turnovers on defense and they are amongst the best in the country in doing so. They will have an advantage on special teams in this game, and they are average when it comes to penalties.
I took Toledo in this game at -7 as it was the first bowl game to be announced. If it were released with the rest of the slate, or if it came -10 as it’s currently listed, I very likely would have left it alone. It’s generally bad business to lay points in bowl games with MAC teams. That being said, I think MTSU is an extremely unimpressive football team. While they do matchup fairly well with the Toledo ground game, I think they are too one-sided on offense and the weather in the Bahamas could adversely impact what they want to do. We’ve seen some wicked wind in this bowl game over the years, and while their quick-hit, dink-and-dunk passing offense may not be squashed if it’s gusty, they simply aren’t going to be able to run the football at all. MTSU went 1-5 against bowl teams and they only exceeded 20 points twice in those six contests. The pace of this game should be slightly above average. I think the Toledo defense has decided advantages against the MTSU offense and I think the Rockets’ balance on offense, coupled with playmakers in Koback and Finn are going to make this a tough road to hoe for a middling CUSA program. MTSU has faced some dual-threat QBs from teams that were clearly better, but they weren’t great in those contests. I would personally pass on a -10 and I think the total is pretty sharp, but I feel pretty good about Toledo -7 and would feel pretty good about them in SU confidence pools. I think Toledo wins something like 31-20.
Cure Bowl (6 PM EST, ESPN2):
NORTHERN ILLINOIS v COASTAL CAROLINA (ORLANDO – -10/64)
Plays: Coastal Carolina -9.5 (Play at -10 or better)
This is the seventh edition of the Cure Bowl in Orlando. The Sun Belt is 2-4 SU. Last year was the first time that two ranked teams played in the game. Coastal Carolina was one participant, losing to Liberty 37-34 in OT. While some teams may not like going back to the same bowl for the second consecutive year, I don’t think that will be the case for Coastal. There was talk of them playing a home game in the Myrtle Beach bowl, and their players were vocal about not desiring that. NIU will be glad to get down in the sun and relative warmth as well.
Coastal played in their first bowl game in school history last year. They lost the game, and I believe this veteran-led team will be focused and want to create another “first” for their team and program. They finished the year 10-2 with losses to App State and Georgia State. I’m pretty sure those were the only bowl teams that they faced, but regardless, they played an incredibly weak schedule. They were pretty dominant for the year, averaging 39 PPG and allowing 21 PPG. I feel extremely confident in saying that they would have won the MAC if they were in their league. Coastal dealt with some injuries to their QB Grayson McCall, and that is a huge blow to an offense that is extremely QB-driven. They have an elite rushing offense and their unique shotgun-option offense is creative and often beautiful. McCall should be good to go for this game and assuming he’s healed up, he should have a field day against this NIU defense. Coastal doesn’t pass a ton, but they are similar to many option teams. When they do throw, they create huge plays. They have a very talented group of pass catchers. They protect the football, convert 3rd and 4th downs at an elite level, and don’t give up many sacks. They don’t have any weaknesses on defense. Their DL isn’t as good as it was last year, but that shouldn’t matter as much playing against a less talented G5 foe. Their LB’s are veteran leaders and they are extremely active. They are the heart and soul of the defense. Their pass defense is good as well, but I think their rush defense is the critical evaluation in this game. They sack the QB pretty well, but they haven’t created tons of turnovers this year. How can they only allow 21 PPG if they don’t create turnovers? Two reasons: they play bad teams and they bend but don’t break and are really tough in the red zone. They are pretty good on special teams, with their weakness being the punt unit. That isn’t something that they did a ton of, so it didn’t adversely impact them very often.
NIU went 0-6 in COVID-20. Remarkably, they just beat Kent State and won the MAC. Some shops had them at 100-1 to win the MAC in the pre-season. They haven’t been to a bowl game since 2018, so this will be a chance for their players to win the first bowl game of their NIU-careers. Bowls haven’t been good for this program. They’ve lost their last six and were outscored by an average of 31 PPG in their last four. Does that mean anything for this game? Probably not, but I look at this type of stuff when I evaluate bowls, just to get as robust a picture as I can. NIU is purely a rushing offense. They are led by Sparty castoff QB Eric Froton, who is an effective game manager. His main job is to hand the ball off. They have a host of good backs, and they likely get even healthier for this game, and that’s good, because they will want to run A LOT. What happens if they can’t run? They have some pretty good pass catchers, but they are a really poor statistical passing attack. Their OL does a great job opening rushing lanes and they keep the QB clean. They don’t turn the ball over very often. They average 31 PPG on offense. Their biggest issues reside on defense. They allow 34 PPG and their rush defense is truly an abomination. They are bad on pass defense as well, but the critical part of this handicap is determining how they match up with the dominant Coastal rushing attack. The Huskies don’t sack the QB, force turnovers, nor get off the field on third downs. They are decent in the red zone or they would likely give up even more than 34 PPG. They aren’t very good on special teams, but they don’t commit many penalties.
This should be one the slowest paced games of the bowl season. Both teams are going to be content to run the football and will want to hog it and play bully-ball. The Coastal rush offense against NIU rush defense is one of the top five mismatches of any bowl game this year. It’s a top-ten versus bottom ten national matchup. The other thing going in Coastal’s favor is the only strength of the NIU team is their rushing attack, but Coastal is a borderline top-25 outfit against the run. Assuming that NIU trails and needs to play catchup, they aren’t built to defeat the Chants. Coastal was bad against bowl teams, while NIU was quite impressive, but this comprehensive matchup mismatch may be the most significant of any bowl team in favor of Coastal. Assuming that motivation and opt-outs should be neutral, I think this is a game that Coastal has the potential to open up a can on the Huskies. Considering the slow pace and the clock which should stay running, I can make a case for the under, but nearly every time I try to go under on a Coastal game, they just find ways to score more points than they “should”. I think this is another matchup where that opportunity will present itself. I was happy to lay 9.5 with Coastal – 42-20 CHANTS.
Saturday, December 18th:
Boca Raton Bowl (11 AM EST, ESPN):
APPALACHIAN STATE v WESTERN KENTUCKY (BOCA RATON – +3/68)
Plays: App State -1 (-112) (Play at -3 or better)
I don’t know if Cheribundi is still the title sponsor for the Rat’s Mouth Bowl, but it will forever be my title sponsor. This has historically been a CUSA tie-in bowl, but the foes in this game came from differing parts of the country. This will be year eight for the bowl, and CUSA teams have gone 5-0 when represented in this one. Both of these teams are regular bowlers. App State has gone 6-0 SU in their last six bowls, while WKU is 1-1 under Helton. I don’t see a major motivation angle in play in this one.
App State finished the year 10-3 after losing their conference title to ULL. Two of those three losses came to ULL, while the other came to Miami (FL). Yosef went 4-3 against bowl teams, with the aforementioned three losses to a P5 foe and a conference champion. App State has a balanced offense, but they are really a running football team. When they can run, it opens up playaction where they can hit their talented, veteran crop of pass catchers. They are really tough to handle when that dynamic is in play. They average 33 PPG on offense. They have a veteran QB who is twice a transfer from Clemson and Duke. He’s an incredibly maddening creature. When he’s playing well, he looks like a P5 QB playing against children. When BAD BRICE comes to the party, he’s like a backup pop warner QB playing against the Steel Curtain. A primary variable that needs to be accounted for is how the App State passing attack matches up with the WKU secondary. Spoiler alert: quite well. Appy protects the QB really well but they turn the ball over a lot. They haven’t been good on third downs this year, but they are still doing a good job putting points on the board. They have a very good defense, as is the case in most years. They give up 20 PPG. They don’t have any major deficiencies on that side of the ball – very good in rush and pass defense. They do a good job sacking the QB and picking balls off. They are stingy on third and fourth downs and really tough in the red zone. They have a good special teams unit and they are pretty average in terms of committing penalties.
WKU had a dream season after a nightmare start. They started 1-4 and finished the season on a tear, winning seven in a row before falling one score short in the title game to UTSA. They went 3-4 against bowl teams, but two of those losses came to the Road Runners. The Tops have one of the most prolific passing attacks in the country. The meat of the Houston Baptist offense came over this off-season and it propelled them to a conference title game. They were magical. Unfortunately, their OC has been so good for the past two years that he’s now gone from HBU, to WKU, and now to Texas Tech. Along with him, their co-OC will be Clay Helton’s new OC at Georgia Southern (LOL) and their OL coach is headed with Kittley to Texas Tech. That puts them in a bit of a pinch in this game. I can’t seem to verify this, but I’d guess that Tyson Helton will probably call plays in this game? Either way, he’s not Kittley and this offense may take a step back. To make matters worse, their WR that was their best pass catcher down the stretch, Mitchell Tinsley, has entered the portal, presumably to go to Texas Tech. They still have Jerreth Sterns who was their WR1 on the season and a heck of a player, but Tinsley is a huge loss. They’ve still got him and Zappe, so that’s a great place to start, but I don’t like to see teams have a staff dismantled, especially when the only reason they are going to a bowl is because of said staff. WKU scores 42 points per game and that’s in no part due to their rushing game. It’s nonexistent. That really hasn’t mattered this year, because the passing attack has simply been so dominant. What happens if they aren’t as dominant without their offensive staff in this game? They won’t be able to run, I know that, but how much does the passing attack falter against 1) a very good defense 2) without their play caller? You would think that due to the passing volume that they would give up lots of sacks, but they don’t. They also convert a ton of third downs, which can also be surprising because of how much they like to pass. WKU’s defense played really well throughout most of their seven game win streak, but that was due to playing some pretty poor CUSA offenses. They were finally tested against UTSA last week, and they gave up 49. A few games ago, Rice had 500 yards of offense. I am not going to be fooled by the uptick in numbers down the stretch, this defense simply stinks. They allow 29 PPG. The numbers show that they are an average rush defense, which I’m sorta in alignment with. It’s their pass defense that is their issue. They are a bottom 25 group at the back. They’ve faced a ton of buttlicker pass catchers all year, and that won’t be the case with App State’s crew. WKU doesn’t stop anyone on third down or in the red zone, they rely almost entirely on turnovers, which they have been very good at creating. They play good special teams but are pretty heavily penalized as a team.
App State is a team that I’ve been able to rely on during bowl season. Last year, my Cam Peoples rushing over was one of my finest bets I’ve ever made. They played North Texas, a historically dreadful rush defense, and needed to get Peoples over 1,000-yards to preserve their nation’s longest streak. His prop number was 111~, he needed 193, and he got 319! They have solidarity on their side this year and they have a bunch of seniors playing in their final game. I believe they will play with max effort. WKU, on the other hand, has some terrible matchups in this game and they lost half of their staff and one of their best players. (Make that two of their best players, their future NFL OT just entered the portal) I took App State -1 (-112) in this one. I think the loss of Kittley looms large. He is a young guy that players seem to gravitate towards. He got his QB and three WRs to follow him from Texas to Kentucky. That was a brilliant move for everyone, but I think it’s going to negatively impact them in this game. If BAD BRICE comes to the party, I’ve probably got a loser, but it’s hard to be bad against WKU’s defense, especially when they should run it well, should they choose. UTSA just ran for 304 yards on WKU in the CUSACG. I’m fine with laying 3 or less with Yosef. App State has never lost a bowl game in program history, so I’m betting they stay perfect. I’ll probably be saying the same thing in next year’s write-up. App State wins 38-31.
New Mexico Bowl (2:45 PM EST, ESPN):
UTEP v FRESNO STATE (NEW MEXICO – -11/50.5)
Plays: Fresno -10 & UTEP +14.5/17 (Pass at current)
This will be the 16th running of the New Mexico Bowl. The Mountain West is the consistent tie-in for this game. They’ve won the past three, last year it was Hawaii in an upset of Houston. Fresno will be making their first bowl appearance since 2018, a game in which they beat Arizona State. UTEP is making their first appearance in a bowl since 2018. They’ve lost their last six. I believe that UTEP will be one of the most motivated teams in this year’s cycle.
Fresno State isn’t in great shape heading into this game. Their head coach is gone to Washington, their best WR is in the portal, and their star QB was headed to Washington as well, but about ten minutes before I started typing this, I read that Haener is now out of the portal as he has a close relationship with their new (old) head coach, Jeff Tedford, and there may have been some eligibility issues at Washington. What makes this even more awkward is that students recently hung a “Haener is a traitor” sign on the goal post. Whoopsies! As of now, I’m proceeding as if Haener will play in the game. When I first made some bets, I was under the 100% belief that he wasn’t. More on that in a bit. Fresno relies heavily on their passing attack. They had a top-ten passing attack this season. Losing Cropper and the head coach and OC will surely take some wind out of their sails, but possibly getting Haener back and re-landing Jeff Tedford, who personally recruited some of these players, changes the picture some. Haener would change it a lot, but such is bowl season life in 2021. If he doesn’t play, Fresno will be extremely compromised. I don’t know much about the backup QB situation, but needless to say, it would be a huge drop off. Fresno can’t run the ball, but they have a really fun, talented back in Ronnie Rivers, who doubles as a pass catcher. The line doesn’t run block well, but they are at least not terrible in their pass blocking. One issue that they have is turning the ball over. They do way too much of that. They still average 31 PPG. On defense, they are surprisingly solid. That was an issue for them last year, but they made a huge leap this year. They give up 21 PPG and are solid in rush defense and against the pass. They are average at sacking the QB, but they force a lot of turnovers, which helps to make up for their turnover issues on offense. They have below average special teams, but a solid FG kicker. Penalties have been an issue for them all season.
UTEP doubled their win total of 3.5, finishing 7-5 this year. They hired a new OC and finally had the right veteran pieces together at the same time and they had a storybook season by El Paso standards. They don’t run the ball well, which was a surprise to me this year, but they’ve gotten pretty good QB play and they have a couple of talented receivers. They rely on big plays in the passing attack. They’ve done a great job keeping their QB, Gavin Hardison, clean. They average 24 points per game, but that was admittedly against a weak schedule. They went 2-3 against bowl teams. Their defense has been their backbone this season. They give up 24 PPG. Similar to Fresno, they don’t have any glaring weaknesses on defense. They are slightly better against the pass, which also surprises me, because when I watched them early in the season, their secondary looked lost at times and they appeared susceptible to downfield passing attacks. The Miners are average at sacking the QB and they don’t force many turnovers. The two areas where they are within the top-ten nationally are in third down defense and also in the red zone. Their special teams aren’t very good and they are heavily penalized.
I took UTEP +14.5 and +17 right when numbers were released. I told myself back in October that UTEP would be an auto-play in bowl season. It just so happened that I got a matchup against a team in disarray and one of the largest bowl spreads of the season. Upon hearing the Haener news on Wednesday night, I bought back some juiced Fresno -10. If he does play, I think that a two score spread is warranted. The Fresno passing attack, even if they are diminished with personnel and staff changes, is the best unit on the field. One interesting note, the OC for this game is Kirby Moore. He was the WR coach and PGC for the past couple years, and is also the younger brother of former Boise QB and current Cowboys OC Kellen Moore. Nothing will convince me that Fresno will be as motivated as UTEP, and while Fresno is clearly the better team, I think the full focus of the Miners coupled with the stability within the program makes them an attractive bet at the early numbers that I grabbed. I think this is a game that is worth doing some wait-and-see if you haven’t already gotten in the ring. Without Haener, I think I’ve got some tremendous bets. With Haener, I think I’ve got a couple of really good bets, especially considering I have a juicy middle position on several key numbers. I’m going to be really rooting for UTEP, for multiple reasons, but I think Fresno likely wins something like 28-17. There’s a chance that Fresno is actually excited to be in New Mexico playing a team without prestige and can fight through the tumultuous last few weeks. If so, they could handle business fairly easily. I think it’s a big ask and that outcome isn’t highly likely, but make no mistake, Fresno has a lot more talent than UTEP and Haener is a heck of a QB. UTEP is not a good football team, but they will try hard.
Independence Bowl (3:30 PM EST, ABC):
UAB v BYU (SHREVEPORT – -7/54.5)
Plays: BYU -6.5 (Play at -7 or better)
This will be the 45th time that the Independence Bowl will have been played. Nearly every member of the ACC and SEC have played in this game at one time or another. UAB has become a perennial bowler under Bill Clark’s second run, last playing in 2019, where they were beat 31-17 by App State in Nawlins. They won their first bowl as a program in 2018. BYU are perennial bowlers. They are 2-1 in their last three, beating UCF 49-23 last year. They are 3-1 in their last four, all under Sitake’s leadership.
UAB is a hard-nosed, old-school football team. They run the football well with two talented backs. Their passing attack stinks. The only times that they are effective in their passing is when they have the defense selling out to stop the run and they pop off big plays. Their QB, Dylan Hopkins, only attempted 30+ passes once this season. They were able to physically overmatch most CUSA foes at the LOS and impose their ground game. Will they be able to do that against a DL full of grown men? Is the passing game good enough to play catch up when they may not be able to overwhelm BYU on the ground? The OL gives up lots of sacks and they are either average or below average on third downs and in the red zone. UAB has a very good defense. Similar to their offense, they rely upon their rush defense to dominate. We only saw them play up in competition once this year, and that was against Georgia, so it’s not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison. They did give up 56 in that game and lost by 7 TDs. Their pass defense is solid. Teams prefer to attack them through the air, so they naturally give up more passing yards, but they are a solid group. No significant weaknesses on the defensive side of the ball. They sack the QB, force turnovers, are pretty good getting off the field, but they haven’t been great in the red zone. They are below average on special teams and one of the most heavily penalized teams in CFB.
BYU was expected by many to take a big step back this season after losing their R1 QB and OC. They played a much more difficult schedule this year, replaced their QB and OC, and they finished 10-2. Jaren Hall emerged as a good QB this season after showing some flashes in the past. They averaged 31 PPG and were good both running and throwing the ball. They have an excellent RB, bruising OL, and a diverse but talented group of pass catchers. They don’t give up sacks, they don’t throw interceptions, but they rated pretty poorly in fumbling. They convert third and fourth downs at a high clip and they are good in the red zone. They allowed 25 PPG on defense. Teams found it a bit easier to throw on them rather than run, but they are pretty solid in both areas. In fairness, they didn’t play many teams that are particularly impressive in their abilities to run the ball. While UAB is one of those teams on paper, are they big and strong enough to bully fathers and grandfathers in their mid-20’s with Herculean-strength and Samoan bloodlines? BYU doesn’t sack the QB very well. They are above average in creating turnovers, but a couple of reasons why they gave up 25 PPG is because they struggle on third downs and generally give up points in the red zone. They have a good punter, but are average to below average on the rest of their special teams. Unlike UAB, they are a disciplined team that doesn’t commit many penalties.
These two teams are somewhat comparable in their identities as physical football teams. The biggest differences are that BYU has better players and they will enjoy a massive edge at QB. BYU went 5-2 against bowl teams while UAB went 3-3. UAB will likely enjoy a significant edge in the crowd, due to their relative proximity to campus. I tend to think they will be the more motivated team as BYU was on the cusp of playing in a NY6 bowl, but narrowly missed the at-large bid after the final CFP rankings were released. This is a 10-2 football team that is ranked #13 in the country that is going down to Shreveport, LA to play a 7-5 team from CUSA. I wouldn’t blame them for not caring as much about this game as UAB who will want to play dragon-slayer. Wait. Cougar-slayer. I kinda have an uneasy feeling about this game that has nothing to do with the matchups, which I believe are highly in favor of BYU. Kalani Sitake is reportedly interviewing for the open job at Oregon. Is that legit on his end or is he using it as leverage for a new deal? Does he stay and use this as fire for his players that he loves them and is a Coug through-and-through? I hope so. I couldn’t help myself and played BYU when they dipped under 7. Perhaps I am ignoring some important bowl game tenets that I generally adhere to, but I think the matchup, in a vacuum, results in a BYU win by double-digits more often than not. If UAB is physical enough to push BYU around on the ground and they hit some chunk plays and score some long TDs, I’m okay to take my medicine and tip my cap. I’ll go with BYU 34-21. Pace of the game may lead to it being lower scoring than that, but I think BYU by DDs is the more representative reflection of my forecasted final.
LendingTree Bowl (5:45 PM EST, ESPN):
EMU v LIBERTY (MOBILE, AL – -8.5/58.5)
Plays: None now
I’m sure everyone knows this, but this will be the 23rd running of the LendingTree Bowl in Mobile, AL. GoDaddy and Dollar General have slapped their names on the tickets before, but now it’s all LendingTree. In recent years, this has been a SBC v MAC bowl, but this year it will be a MAC v IND game. The MAC has lost the last five times they’ve played in this one. EMU is 1-3 all time in bowl games. No player on their roster was alive when they last won a bowl game, which was back in the 1987 California Bowl. They’ve had three bowl losses since 2016, by a total of 10 points. Liberty has played in two bowls in their history, notching wins in 2019 and 2020. Huge Freeze is 5-2 in bowls in his career.
EMU went 7-5 this season. They averaged 31 PPG. They can’t run the ball worth a lick. They rely on their passing attack to get things done. In recent years, they’ve found some rushing production from their quarterback. In a surprise to many, they elected to go with Cincinnati transfer Ben Bryant at QB this year ahead of Preston Hutchinson and they got away from the ground game entirely. He doesn’t provide anything as a runner. They’ve got a decent pair of pass catchers in Beydoun and Drummond. The line isn’t very good. They give up lots of sacks and the line doesn’t open up many holes for the backs. They are pretty good on third downs and in the red zone. The defense is worse than the offense. They give up 29 PPG. They aren’t good at anything. I suppose it’s easier to run on them than throw, but they are pretty equal opportunity. They don’t get many sacks, force tons of turnovers, nor get off the field on third downs. They are bad in the red zone as well. Mixed bag on special teams. The best thing that I can say about them is that they are the least penalized team in the country. They went 3-4 against bowl teams. They played up once, against Wisconsin, and they got beat 34-7 after being held to 92 yards for the game. Wisconsin is a cut or few above Liberty, but just wanted to note that.
Liberty came back down to earth this year after a 10-1 finish in 2020. They are 7-5 this year and went 4-3 against bowl teams. They started 4-0 against bowlers, but then lost a couple head scratchers and got beat by three good teams down the stretch to close the year. The best player in this game by a significant margin is QB Malik Willis. He’s rumored to be a potential first round pick in next year’s NFL Draft and he’ll be headed to the Senior Bowl, also in Mobile, early next year. I haven’t been able to confirm that he plans to play in this game, but it would more likely help his draft stock rather than hurt it. He would rip them to shreds, but he also runs the risk of ripping his knee to shreds. I’m tentatively under the assumption that he will play, but wouldn’t be surprised or upset if he played his last game for free. If he doesn’t play, that changes everything. I don’t think the backup is currently (likely ever) going to be in the same realm of players as Willis, who will probably go down as the most gifted player in program history. They average 30 PPG, but they haven’t score more than 14 since Halloween Eve. They are good at both running and throwing, but the running is all on the shoulders of Willis, who could go over 1,000 rushing yards if he plays four quarters in this game. He would need 180 yards, but that’s not out of the question against this MAC defense. He also needs 374 yards to throw for 3,000, which I think he may be more inclined to attempt to obtain. Toledo did it. I don’t think either of those will happen, but they could be optimistic goals, and worth noting for prop purposes. Liberty’s OL is absolutely dreadful in pass blocking, but in fairness, Willis’ play style and decision-making don’t help their cause. The good news is that they will face a bad MAC DL that doesn’t sack the QB, so if he has some time and stays clean, he could put on a show. They turn the ball over a ton, due to interceptions and are terrible in the red zone. They are good on third downs. Liberty has a good defense. They are pretty good against the run and they are great against the pass. The latter point is a key piece of the handicap. They give up 23 PPG. They sack the QB well and that is another key. They don’t force many turnovers (and they turn it over a ton) which leads to them being one of the worst net turnover teams in college football. It’s a huge reason why they only won 7 games. The defense buckles down on third downs and in the red area. Special teams are pretty good, other than FG kicking, which is a dumpster. I thought this was a typo, but I’ve confirmed it on three sites, the Flames have only kicked 4 FGs this year. Maybe, we can leverage this in an obscure prop market.
I think EMU will likely be the more motivated team in this game. They’ve never seen a bowl victory in their lifetimes and they’ve been oh-so-close in their last three tries. They are badly overmatched in this game and nearly every phase. They’ve faced two dual-threat QBs this year. Neither have the ability of Willis, but they allowed 49 and 34 points in those games (8.6 & 8.1 YPP). If Willis sits and I catch the news, I will grab an under bet, more than likely. If it looks like he will play, I have a few other ideas of how to approach this, and will share after I choose which route(s) I go. It seems like some folks are betting EMU in this game. I couldn’t do that. I suppose they are speculating that Willis will sit and they could grab a sweet middle opp, but I just things would have to break incredibly well for EMU to be really competitive in this game. Their only strength, aside from not committing penalties, is their passing attack, which should be erased by a good Liberty secondary and a bad matchup with the EMU OL vs Liberty DL. Pace should be average. Assuming Willis plays, I’ll go with the Flames something like 35-20. I’m not in a huge rush to lay the points, but if all news remains the same, and EMU keeps taking money, I may not be able to resist the laying of a TD. If Liberty didn’t get Ole Miss, ULL, and Army in their last three, I tend to think this line would be considerably higher.
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl (7:30 PM EST, ABC):
UTAH STATE v OREGON STATE (LOS ANGELES – -7.5/67)
Plays: None now
This will be the first playing of the *checks notes* Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl. I hope it will be the last, but it seems he has the naming rights for a few more. Nothing against JK, but this is a really bizarre branding choice to me. Utah State is 1-2 in their last three bowl games. They last played in one in 2019. Blake Anderson is 2-4 in his career in bowls. This will be Oregon State’s first bowl appearance since 2013. I feel confident that both teams will be focused and play hard in this regional clash.
Utah State was an amazing story. Listed at 50-1 in the pre-season with a head scratching “lateral” move by the HC from Arkansas to Logan, they did the unthinkable and won the conference against SDSU. This is a pass-first offense. They don’t run the ball all that well, and they shouldn’t run the ball very much or all that well in this game. How will they do throwing the ball? This is one of the largest mismatches of any bowl game. USU has a veteran QB in Logan Bonner and one of the best WRs in G5 in Deven Thompkins. Unlike other uber-productive receivers, Thompkins isn’t a bona fide NFL prospect, so he will need to play in this game to get some additional eyes on him. He should have a big game, and even if OSU keys on him, there are some other dudes that can play a little bit too. The Ags average 32 PPG on offense. They are pretty average in sacks allowed and red zone offense. They are very good on third down conversions. They operate at a very fast tempo on offense. USU allows 25 PPG on defense. That is above average. However, they are probably an average, at best, defense. Teams preferred to run on them and they weren’t terrible in that area, but they should get bullied some against a P5 line. Statistically, they are a better pass defense, but they played a pretty weak schedule of passing attacks. They are average at sacking the QB. They are good at forcing turnovers, getting off the field on third downs, and in the red zone. They appear to be pretty average on special teams and on the penalty front.
Oregon State finished 7-5 in the regular season. They average 32 PPG on offense. That is thanks to their rushing attack, which is a top-20 unit nationally. Like many teams I’ve already detailed, when they can get defenses to key on the run, they can pop some big passing plays. They have a solid game managing QB in Chance Nolan and a great back in BJ Baylor. They have an eclectic group of pass catchers, but I actually kinda like them. The heart and soul of their team is their offensive line. They pave the way for the backs and they don’t give up sacks. The Beavs don’t turn it over a ton, they are great on third downs, and they are average in the red zone. The defense allows 28 PPG. They are better against the run than against the pass, but they aren’t much better than average against the run. That shouldn’t be a big factor in this game. The secondary is not good. Teams prefer to throw on them and generally have a lot of success doing so. They picked off a good amount of balls, but the yardage is ripe for the pickin’. They don’t sack the QB and they are abhorrent on third down defense. They are average in red zone defense and their special teams is generally good with punting and less so when it comes to kicking. They give up too many penalties.
I am excited to watch this game. I currently don’t have any action on it, but it’s a game that I will watch. It’s fun because I think that both teams will care and the USU passing attack against OSU pass defense could create some fireworks, in addition to the OSU ground game against the USU front. Utah State went 4-3 against bowl teams, including taking a P12 scalp off Washington State (26-23) in the season opener. Oregon State went 3-3 against bowlers. I think that the side and total are both pretty sharp on this one. I agree with OSU being about a TD favorite and this has the potential to feature a lot of scoring. I missed the BOL total open of 63.5, which would have interested me in an over. I think that the margin of error is slimmer for the smaller school that relies on their passing game and I think the Beavs should generally be able to do whatever they want on the ground and open up some explosives in the passing game. I’ll go with the Beavs 38-31.
New Orleans Bowl (9:15 PM EST, ESPN):
ULL v MARSHALL (NEW ORLEANS – +6/53.5)
Plays: None now
The New Orleans Bowl has been in operation since 2001. It feels like ULL has played in every one of them. The reality is that they haven’t played in this bowl since 2016. They played in the game five times in six years during that stretch. One of my favorite bowl memories is when I saw a ULL staffer violently headbutt his helmeted player and he stood on the sideline with blood trickling down his face while wearing sunglasses indoors and at night. FOOTBALL. A Sun Belt team has played in this game for the past eleven years. They’ve won nine of those contests. ULL has been a good bowl team. They are 7-3 in their history and 4-1 in this game. Marshall are perennial bowlers, but this will be Charles Huff’s first as a head coach. The program is 1-2 in their last three. They had a great stretch where they went 12-1 but they have lost their past two.
ULL has to replace their head coach and parts of the coaching staff. Billy Napier went to Florida following their SBCCG victory over App State to cinch the year. They won the conference title and are 11-2 on the season. Sticking with the theme of several teams that I’ve just touched on, they are a run first offense. That is their bread and butter. They can get defenses to stack the box and then they can hit some big plays on play action or roll-outs. I’m not a big fan of their QB Levi Lewis, but he manages the game well and has tons of experience. In games where they can run the football at will, they are a tough out. This should be one such game. The ULL OL is a good group. They are poor on third downs and in the red zone, but they take care of the football. The Cajuns average 30 points per game, but they haven’t eclipsed 400 total yards in their past four games. They went 4-1 against bowl teams this season with their lone loss coming to Texas in the season opener. Their defense is better than their offense. They allow 19 PPG and are very strong against the run and pass. Their pass defense is extremely impressive and they are a top-15 statistical pass unit. They are above average protecting the QB, protecting the football, converting third downs, and finishing drives. They have a good punter, but the rest of their special teams are poor. They move at a very methodical pace on offense and don’t commit many penalties, nor get in their own way with turnovers.
Marshall is a pace offense. They average 33 PPG, with balance. They aren’t a very good rushing team, but they have a talented back in Rasheen Ali. Their QB, Grant Wells, has dual-threat abilities, but they don’t run him very often. This is a spread passing attack that throws a lot better than they run. Wells is a very inconsistent player that seems to be money or a total turd. They spread things around to different receivers and have a talented, yet non-pedigreed, pass catching group. The line protects Wells well, but they turn the ball over a bunch and are slightly above average on third downs and in the red zone. The Herd allow 24 PPG on defense. That’s a miracle as their rush defense is one of the most porous in the country. They get after quarterbacks and that helps the secondary to be a really tough nut to crack through the air. Teams are happy to run on them and not test the secondary, and that is a key component to this handicap. Marshall is above average in forcing turnovers and getting off the field on third downs. Their red zone defense is phenomenal. They have below average special teams.
This game is a terrific matchup for ULL. They are going to gash Marshall on the ground and their pass defense is excellent which is really all Marshall does well on offense. This is a nightmare to handicap the interest level and potential team changes for ULL. I guess I just missed this piece, but they went ahead and hired their former player and recent assistant Michael Desormeaux as the new head coach. I know there has been a ton of other news that caused this hire to get lost, but I’m surprised they didn’t go after a bigger fish. They have oil money in Lafayette and a budget/resources that their rival ULM could never dream of. I suppose the internal hiring of Desormeaux should help in the short-term as they ready for this game. I would think the team playing for their new head coach who they know, and in front of a very pro ULL crowd, will help them to stay interested. I’ve struggled to get both of these teams right this year. I’ve had more success on Marshall games, but ULL seems to do the opposite of what I expect more often than not. If Marshall isn’t converting third downs or scoring long ones, I worry that their tempo could work against them and allow ULL to play bully ball and gash their porous front. I don’t have any interest in ULL at a price above three, but I’m also not in a hurry to take Marshall in a game where they don’t have many positive matchups to hang their hat on. I’ll go with ULL, something like 28-23.
