BAG MAN: August 7, 2020

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“Close your eyes… Picture Clyde Edwards-Helaire… Make an internal review of the discussions you’ve had in regards to him on Twitter over the past two weeks. If you feel angry when you think about him and/or you’ve engaged in numerous vitriolic debates about him and other NFL running backs, please allow me to make some unsolicited suggestions: Unplug from Twitter. Start with 72 hours. If you are still enraged when you return, take a longer break. Instead of logging on, do something that brings you joy. Go outside. Seek out legitimate face-to-face or mask-to-mask interactions. Sweat. Laugh. Breathe. Picture yourself five years from now… Will you be glad you spent time arguing on the internet about fantasy football running backs and degrading others with a contrasting viewpoint or will you wish you spent that time with your significant other or your children? You are probably a kind person; there is no reason to be mean to another human over something this trivial. It’s gonna be okay!” – Friar Franchise

What’s the best way to schedule a CFF season this year? Every conference is doing its own thing, how do you strike a balance in scheduling? @SteeleChaz

It should be clear, being that this is my mailbag, but I want to reiterate this is solely my opinion.

Whatever format is decided upon, it needs to be discussed by the league, or at a minimum, the rules committee of a league if your league has a group of elders. Once decided upon, it should probably then go to a formal vote. 

I’ll share an unpopular opinion; most leagues that have drafted are toast this year. You can try to salvage something, but the integrity of the league is compromised. Not by collusion, but Corona. I’ve tried to think about how several of my best ball and redraft leagues will work, and I don’t see a clear path. Whatever your league decides, don’t spend too much time trying to solve the riddle, chances are the season doesn’t finish anyway.

I’m really not trying to be a downer, but it’s looking like this is a year for DFS, if you got a fantasy itch. I’ve attempted to wrap my mind around how things can work for most traditional CFF leagues, and nothing really makes sense. You probably need to go best ball if you are even gonna try it—such a bummer. 

Be sure to follow @theCFFsite on Twitter as they are currently producing some audio and video content that outlines some suggestions for leagues. 

Which do you prefer? Start the season earlier with extra weeks worked in for PPD games or a later start to the season to let the initial rush of cases as students come back subside? @CTG_BAR

You guys are asking me to be the bad cop today! I don’t think it matters too much. Seemingly every time a group of collegiate athletes goes to a party, the program gets shut down shortly thereafter. In the south, August 1 was move-in day at a lot of dorms. My guess is that the week leading up to some of the Week Zero games, we see a pretty significant spike. I can’t see an amateur sports league having success in the current climate. The bubble appears to be the only proven method, which is impossible for college football. If I had to pick, I would say that I prefer the delayed approach. I really miss college football, but it may be a good year to just catch our collective breath and enjoy other things that the fall has to offer. 

How much longer are we gonna lie to ourselves and believe a season will happen? @HaydenGOAT

See above. The SEC is probably willing to sacrifice most of their cities’ populations for a champion to be crowned, so I can’t fully count out college ball. It just means more. 

What are some of the more drastic and opportunity-rich shifts in scheme/personnel usage you anticipate due to a school getting a new HC/OC? @TheSFGiantsguy

I’m gonna focus on offense, which is what I assume you and the majority of readers care about:

Arizona State – Jayden Daniels’ passing volume could see a significant uptick.

Baylor – Charlie Brewer’s full toolbox should be unlocked.

Georgia – George Pickens could win the Biletnikoff.

Miami – D’Eriq King will enjoy a comparable system to the one that made him famous.

Mississippi State – From heavy ground-and-pound to full-on Air Raid. Big for KJ Costello, his receivers, and Kylin Hill in PPR leagues.

New Mexico – Been transitioning away from modified triple option to now running the Tom Herman offense. Big chance for Tevaka Tuioti and Jordan Kress to shine.

Penn State – Fleck disciple the new OC – Jahan Dotson could be a top ten finisher at WR.

South Carolina – Shi Smith is a strong candidate for being a top ten most targeted player in the nation.

Texas – New OC has some significant outside WR seasons on his CV, will the slot still thrive or Brennan Eagles gonna be the focal point?

Are we overestimating how difficult it will be to install new offensive systems with limited practices? The more I think about it, the more I think the effect won’t be as significant as I used to believe. @ATLdan

I don’t think we are overestimating it. Throughout my research, countless coaches that are a part of new offensive staffs made mention of how they loathed the loss of spring ball. Now, they lose most of fall ball as well. It’s hard to foresee the timing being crisp and the teams that utilize fast tempo being in good condition. I suppose that we will know more about this within the next few weeks. Most teams are starting to get back after it. We haven’t benefited from spring reports this year, so I’m hopeful that beat writers are fresh, and we can get a high-level sense of how new offensive installs are transitioning from zoom meetings to actual execution, even if it’s on a practice field at the moment. This may be especially true for the drastic philosophical changes like Mississippi State, for example. Before week one was canceled, I was tempted to bet the under on almost every week one game that Circa Sportsbook in Vegas totaled.

Who’s going to be RB1 for LSU? @Wvschorn

One of the nuances that seem impossible for the overwhelming majority of NFL dynasty players to digest is the concept of seniority. Some coaches, particularly old school guys like Coach O, prefer to give the nod to the elder statesmen. We already saw it with Nick Brosette and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Chris Curry is the old dog of the running back’s room. While he isn’t significantly older than JEJ and TDP, he’s got seniority over them. You can tell in the way that O spoke about all the backs beyond CEH last season that he wanted to be clear how talented and valuable Curry was to their team. In the CFP game against Oklahoma, when CEH was dealing with a hammy and only used as a decoy, it was Curry that had sixteen carries for 90 yards. TDP and JEJ combined for seven carries. I’m not saying we should look at that one game sample and get too adventurous with our projected splits, but knowing the coaching staff is critical for fantasy success. While John Emery Jr is the most dynamic player of the bunch, I lean more towards Chris Curry and Tyrion Davis-Price being the heavy lifters. They may elect to use all three and ride the hot hand, which is usually wise but frustrating for fantasy players. 

Feeling any dark horse picks for player of the year for any of the major conferences? @fantasyheisman

George Pickens could take the cake in the SEC as could Mac Jones or Myles Brennan.

D’Eriq King is a threat to do huge numbers in the ACC. 

Spencer Sanders plays in an offense where he could really surprise in the Big 12. He’s probably gonna be overshadowed by his RB and WR though. 

Has an OL ever won it? Penei Sewell is prob the best OL since I strapped up at left guard for my JV team in tenth grade. 

I can’t see anyone unseating Fields from going back-to-back in the B1G. 

From the power 5 which skill players are you avoiding in drafts this year? @mjdesmo

SEC: Kyle Trask, John Emery Jr, Osirus Mitchell, Elijah Moore

ACC: Micale Cunningham

B1G: Sean Clifford, Tyler Goodson, Pat Freiermuth

Big 12: SaRodorick Thompson, Tyquan Thornton

PAC 12: Dorian Thomson-Robinson, Max Borghi

Guys you are higher on than most(sleepers) and guys you are lower on than most? @ashlowe10

This is relative to my fellow rankers at Devy Watch and in relation to Devy:

Higher:

Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State

Kylin Hill, RB, Mississippi State

DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama

Isaiah Spiller, RB, Texas A&M

Jamie Newman, QB, Georgia

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, Nebraska

Jermar Jefferson, RB, Oregon State

CJ Verdell, RB, Oregon

CJ Johnson, WR, ECU

SaRodorick Thompson, RB, Texas Tech

Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas

Jalen Wydermyer, TE, Texas A&M

DeaMonte Trayanum, RB, Arizona State

 

Lower:

Kenneth Gainwell

Brennan Eagles

Any Freshmen Receiver

Any Freshmen in General

What does the Rashod Bateman opt-out news mean for his draft stock and devy value? @DynastyWizardry

At this point in time, it hurts him. He was a lock for one of the most productive receivers in college football this season. While that isn’t the be-all and end-all for NFL front offices, it sure does help to say, “this guy went over 1,000 yards on back to back seasons in the Big 10.” Some screwy front offices may even besmirch his name and say “he’s not a man/competitor” or “he’s a quitter/primadonna.” That’s silly, but cavemen run most of the NFL. Bateman is a guy that I haven’t drafted in devy leagues because I’ve never seen verified testing numbers on him, and I’ve been burnt by big outside wide receivers that weren’t great athletes before. I’ve since heard he’s clocked unverified times in the 4.4s, which I don’t necessarily buy, but I think he can run fast enough to go day two in a potentially great WR class. The three good things about his opt-out, in my estimation, are as follows:

  1. He can truly dedicate time to working with experts on how to post great combine numbers. 
  2. He should be healthy.
  3. He is signaling to the decision-makers of college football that he’s a bona fide NFL asset, and they need to take notice. 

If the season cancels, I think it swings to a positive, but I rarely think 1,000 receiving yards hurt on a player’s CV.