“In a world of seven billion people, where every inch of land has been mapped, much of it developed, and too much of it destroyed, the sea remains the final unseen, untouched, and undiscovered wilderness, the planet’s last great frontier. There are no mobile phones down there, no e-mails, no tweeting, no twerking, no car keys to lose, no terrorist threats, no birthdays to forget, no penalties for late credit card payments, and no dog shit to step in before a job interview. All the stress, noise, and distractions of life are left at the surface. The ocean is the last truly quiet place on Earth.”
James Nestor, Author of Breath: The New Science of a Lost Art
Who’s an underrated flex player on a CUSA / Sun Belt team who has some upside in fantasy this season? @Wvschorn
Here are five skill guys that I think could have big seasons.
BJ Emmons, FAU, RB
Marcus Williams, App State, RB
JJ Holloman, FIU, WR
Sterling Palmer, FIU, TE
Isaiah LIkely, Coastal Carolina, TE
With the CFB season on the ropes, how has the transformation of “CFB Kyle” to “UFC Kyle” gone? What type of life changes has this led to? Have you invested more in tattoos, Ecko jeans with bling on the back pockets, tappout shirts, etc in order to assimilate with your new kind? @CFFNate
In an attempt to add some additional perspective to this answer, I reached out to Steve Carrell. The only other man that I’ve ever seen make the heel-turn so seamlessly was when we saw Michael Scott become Prison Mike. Unfortunately, my calls weren’t returned.
Believe it or not, this isn’t a recent passion of mine. I attended UFC 88 in September of 2008. I got to see Rashad Evans KO Chuck Liddell in addition to watching Rich Franklin and Dan Henderson get their hands raised. I haven’t watched a single second of the NBA or MLB this year, nor do I plan to, so if CFB goes in the tank, be prepared for my comprehensive UFC DFS (and dynasty!) breakdown by weight class in the near future!
Two-part-question:
The dynasty league I’m in has all but effectively canceled the 2020 fantasy season, so I’m allowing myself to think a few months ahead. Do you think we’ll see significantly more or fewer underclassmen entering the 2021 Draft, or business as usual? @atldan
Given the uncertainty of what the NCAA, FBS, the CFP, etc…will look like after this calendar year, do more players just decide to declare and enter the draft? Does the lowered cap in 2021 actually make rookie contributors more sought after? @CharlesChillFFB
This is from Sporting News in January 2020, “This year, the NFL confirmed that a record-115 college football underclassmen have been granted eligibility for the 2020 NFL Draft: 99 of whom were granted special eligibility (as they hadn’t yet completed their college degree) and 16 who, despite having eligibility remaining, have already fulfilled their degree requirements. Five are eligible for the draft without the need for special eligibility. That continues, for the fourth straight year, the trend of at least 100 underclassmen declaring early (106 declared in 2018, 103 in 2017 and 107 in 2016).” Given the uncertainty of the NCAA and college football, it’s fair to assume that the numbers increase for the fifth year in a row. If the NCAA and NFL were to work out a special provision for this season where players that go undrafted were able to retain their eligibility, it would be a welcomed addition. I never blame any player for leaving early and pursuing their financial future in football, but I do find myself thinking about how foolish many of those 100 players are every season. While on the subject, I would love to see universities invest more money into scouting as they help their student-athletes to be better informed about their grades and prospective futures. The big universities hire their own firms to help with additional data points, but similar to what we’ve seen with COVID testing, college football is a group of very few HAVES, and many HAVE NOTS.
In terms of cap impact, an area where I’m admittedly far from an expert, I think it’s reasonable to expect that we see your hypothesis proved correct. It would make sense for teams to load up during the draft. That’s basic economics. However, the issue that could blow this up is the state of the college football season and player pool. How confident are franchises going to be using tape from past seasons and not relying on updated film? Will the pandemic have passed by the time teams want to set up interviews and private workouts. We saw the impact that had on NFL veterans like Cam Newton this off-season. If things aren’t better by then, the result will undoubtedly be chaos. The main suggestion I have for the NFL front office personnel who are undoubtedly reading this is be sure to keep your annual subscription to DevyWatch.com current!
End of Two-part-question.
Do players on teams that aren’t playing have to be redshirted? Gary Bryant – USC isn’t playing this year so can they redshirt him next year while Josh Downs – NC has to be redshirt this year since NC is playing. Wouldn’t that make Bryant a class of 2024 guy instead of 2023? @cusumano_sal
The way that I interpret things is that the year will count sort of as a “no contest” for the players in leagues that canceled football. That’s something like semantics, but it’s slightly different from a redshirt, which I believe should extend each student’s potential eligibility without any strings attached. As I often say, this is making assumptions about how the NCAA will respond, which is always a slippery slope. This is an excerpt from a recent CBS article, “That Pac-12 coach was worried about his seniors being given an extra year of eligibility because his 2021 roster will eventually be populated a new recruiting class. If a significant number of would-be graduating seniors stayed for an extra year, the coach suggested he might need 100 scholarships as opposed to the limit is 85. And that roster relief may need to extend past 2021.
That might make perfect sense. It also might upend the sport. “This isn’t a normal year,” said West Virginia athletic director Shane Lyons, a member of the NCAA Council. “If we’re really serving the student-athletes, why not just give this year of eligibility? The downside is people are going to say you’re going to have an issue at the back end with a [roster] bottleneck. That always works itself out.” In this one-off year, a lot of things may have to “work out.” The council recommended last week that athletes who opt out of the season or appear in less than 50% of their scheduled games could get back that year of eligibility. But why apply any limits at all? The athletes have been through hell this year. Lyons is in favor of a blanket year of eligibility without any limitations. “Given what we’re facing right now, let’s ease the mind of the student-athlete,” said Lyons, who is also the chairman of the NCAA Division I Football Oversight Committee. Coaches are worried about having to shoehorn in extra scholarships. They won’t say it out loud, but they might not want all those seniors back. In that sense, they would have to be held to an ethical standard. They can’t be allowed to switch those extra scholarships to the most talented players.”
The more significant issues appear to be the scholarship distributions on the back end of things. Now that the notion of having a “free” eligibility year for all football players is up for approval, I assume that seniors who return won’t count against the 85 if they don’t up the available scholarship slots. As someone who plays in many CFF dynasty leagues, this year screwed up my strategy for how I’ve been building. On a much smaller and less significant scale, I can both see and experience the challenges that FBS teams will have moving forward. This deeply impacts recruiting, which is the lifeblood of college football. In terms of how a player will be classified, Gary Bryant, for example, will still remain a 2023 prospect by NFL Draft standards. For me, it’s always the year that a player is potentially eligible. It would be bizarre for a governor to be put on players in canceled seasons in terms of when they can go pro. I’ll still call all incoming freshmen the class of 2023, even if they have the potential to be in the NFL Draft class of 2025.
Which 2021 NFL prospects have the most to lose with no cfb this year? Of these guys who if any are you taking advantage and buying low in C2C? @ashlowe10
Here are the guys that have the most to lose:
Mac Jones, Alabama, QB
Frank Darby, Arizona State, WR
Rakeem Boyd, Arkansas, RB
Charlie Brewer, Baylor, QB
David Bailey, Boston College, RB
Phil Jurkovec, Boston College, QB
Jaret Patterson, Buffalo, RB
JJ Holloman, FIU, WR
Kyle Trask, Florida, QB
BJ Emmons, FAU, RB
Jashaun Corbin, FSU, RB
Jamie Newman, Georgia, QB
Zamir White, Georgia, RB
Jordan Mason, GT, RB
Rico Bussey, Hawaii, WR
Marquez Stevenson, Houston, WR
Michael Penix, Indiana, QB
Whop Philyor, Indiana, WR
Stevie Scott, Indiana, RB
Dustin Crum, Kent State, QB
Tutu Atwell, Louisville, WR
Myles Brennan, LSU, QB
Damonte Coxie, Memphis, WR
Kenneth Gainwell, Memphis, RB
Nico Collins, Michigan, WR
KJ Costello, Mississippi State, QB
Damon Hazelton, Missouri, WR
O’Maury Samuels, New Mexico State, RB
Dazz Newsome, UNC, WR
Dyami Brown, UNC, WR
Ian Book, Notre Dame, QB
Kevin Austin, Notre Dame, WR
Jafar Armstrong, Notre Dame, RB
Tommy Tremble, Notre Dame, TE
Trey Sermon, Ohio State, RB
Chris Olave, Ohio State, WR
Charleston Rambo, Oklahoma, WR
Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State, WR
Elijah Moore, Ole Miss, WR
Jonathan Mingo, Ole Miss, WR
CJ Verdell, Oregon, RB
Jermar Jefferson, Oregon State, RB
Journey Brown, Penn State, RB
Jahan Dotson, Penn State, WR
Reggie Roberson, SMU, WR
Shi Smith, South Carolina, WR
Kellen Mond, Texas A&M, QB
Alan Bowman, Texas Tech, QB
SaRodorick Thompson, Texas Tech, RB
Demetric Felton, UCLA, WR
Tyler Vaughns, USC, WR
Cam Cooper, Washington State, QB
My approach is different than the majority in C2C. I don’t consider the primary focus of the league to college side to be on devy. As such, I think the lack of production would hurt all of these guys. I suppose that could create a dip in their prices if their league has already canceled, but I guess that most owners aren’t going to be very active in the trade market right now. I know that I’m not. There is too much uncertainty for me to engage too much with trade partners right now. I understand the high variance window that we are in right now presents a potential inefficiency in the market and an opportunity to do business. Still, it’s not something that I’m currently exploiting. I’m about to wrap up a standard CFF dynasty draft this week, and after the announcement that seniors get an extra year back, I decided to take Shi Smith with my penultimate pick in the fourteenth round. If he decides to come back next year, I could have landed a top-five scorer at the position in 2021, which made the juice worth the squeeze. If anything, I think there is an opportunity to draft guys like him in CFF dynasty leagues, or C2C for that matter, as their price has recently dipped due to the majority of CFF seasonal leagues being a lost cause this year.
If the season played out like normal this year, what percentage do you give the Vols to win the SEC East and what would TN record be against OU, FL, Bama, and Georgia? @jerryle42445952
I would give the Vols roughly an 11.1% chance to win the SEC East. The current oddsmakers have them at 6.7%, so I think there is actually some value on them at 14/1, especially given the rosters’ uncertainty if they get a bug in the locker room. Unfortunately for the Vols, Emory Jones and JT Daniels are both tremendous backup quarterbacks, so even if UGA or UF lost their QB, they would be in great shape, and their rosters are still vastly superior to Tennessee’s and the rest of the division. Bailey is going to be a good QB, but he’s not ready and would be considered an inferior option to those two if Guarantano went down.
If they were to play the full season and under normal circumstances, I believe UT’s record would have been 0-4 against those teams. They are getting better, and I think that they have the chance to be a legit contender in two or three years, but they aren’t there yet. Tennessee lost to Georgia State last year in addition to a 34-3 loss to UF, 43-14 to UGA, and 35-13 to Bama. They are trending the right way, but they are a coinflip against USCe in the opener (I disagree and have already bet UT -1 & -2.5), according to oddsmakers.
What does the grad transfer pool look like next year? @Just_T_Rev
This is a fun question to think about, but it’s challenging to give the type of answer that I’d like to. It’s challenging for several reasons. The most recent reason is the announcement that was made on Wednesday was summarized by Yahoo, “The NCAA’s Division I Council on Wednesday presented an array of recommendations to the D-I Board of Governors for approval. The most impactful recommendation is to give all fall sport athletes “both an additional year of eligibility and an additional year in which to complete it.” In simpler terms, fall sport athletes would essentially be given a free year of eligibility should the Board of Governors approve the proposal as expected on Friday. That includes football, along with men’s and women’s soccer, volleyball, field hockey, and cross country. Ordinarily, college athletes have five years to complete four seasons of competition. Now they will likely have six years to play five seasons of eligibility. Seniors who use the additional year of eligibility won’t count against team financial aid limits for 2021-22. The D-I Council initially planned to recommend giving athletes who opted out of the fall season an extension of their five-year eligibility period and an additional season of competition if they participate in less than 50 percent of their sport’s maximum number of competitions. Since then, though, several conferences — including the Big Ten and Pac-12 — have voted to postpone fall sports. That caused the Council to “be even more flexible.” “We continue to be committed to providing opportunities wherever possible,” said M. Grace Calhoun, the chair of the D-I Council.”
So, let’s parse this out for a second. A team that I think could have looked for a grad transfer next year is Texas. With this rule likely being instituted, I could see a player like Sam Ehlinger returning. He’s a lock to retain his job for as long as he’s on campus, but he’s unlikely to be coveted by the NFL. The same could be said for D’Eriq King at Miami. With the extra year on the table and social lives being shut down on most campuses, the wise students will buckle down in the classroom and graduate early if they can. That affords them the flexibility to grad transfer or stay in school and get a second degree. To further complicate things, the one-time transfer rule is back on the table in January 2021. Before I toss out any names, the final issue is that I don’t have intimate knowledge of which players are on track to graduate early.
Here are a few guys that I could be in the mix:
Mac Jones, Alabama, QB
Brian Robinson, Alabama, RB
Jonathan Adams, Arkansas State, WR
Tyquan Thornton, Baylor, WR
Andrew Clair, BGSU, RB
Jaret Patterson, Buffalo, RB
Kevin Marks, Buffalo, RB
Kalil Pimpleton, CMU, WR
CJ Marable, Coastal Carolina, RB
Noah Gray, Duke, TE
James Blackman, FSU, QB
Jordan Mason, GT, RB
Whop Philyor, Indiana, WR
Ihmir Smith-Marsette, Iowa, WR
Dustin Crum, Kent State, QB
Isaiah McKoy, Kent State, WR
Elijah Mitchell, ULL, RB
Trey Ragas, ULL, RB
Josh Pederson, ULM, TE
Josh Johnson, ULM, RB
Xavier Gaines, Marshall, TE
Brenden Knox, Marshall, RB
Master Teague, Ohio State, RB
Matt Corral, Ole Miss, QB
Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh, QB
Bo Melton, Rutgers, RB
Daniel Bellinger, SDSU, TE
Bryant Koback, Toledo, RB
Keylon Stokes, Tulsa, WR
McKenzie Milton, UCF, QB
That’s very unscientific, but these guys came to mind.
