“The question we need to ask ourselves is: what is success to us? More money? That’s fine. A healthy family? A happy marriage? Helping others? To be famous? Spiritually sound? To express ourselves? To create art? To leave the world a better place than we found it? What is success to me? Continue to ask yourself that question. How are you prosperous? What is your relevance?
Your answer may change over time and that’s fine but do yourself this favor – whatever your answer is, don’t choose anything that would jeopardize your soul. Prioritize who you are, who you want to be, and don’t spend time with anything that antagonizes your character. Don’t depend on drinking the Kool-Aid – it’s popular, tastes sweet today, but it will give you cavities tomorrow. Life is not a popularity contest. Be brave, take the hill. But first answer the question.” – Matthew McConaughey, Greenlights
What are your thoughts on the Arkansas RB room? (@wannabeerbad)
First off, I think this should be a much-improved offense this season. Last year, they were breaking in a new coaching staff amidst the pandemic. They had a new head coach, offensive coordinator, quarterback, running back, and many new pass catchers. Perhaps more importantly, they knew they would be rolling out a green offensive line that was destined to struggle. Struggle, they did. However, it wasn’t as bad as it could have been. Considering that they played an All-SEC schedule, they scored nearly 26 points per game. Those numbers were nearly a TD better than their dismal showings of the Chad Morris era in 2018 and 2019. 2016 was the last year that they averaged 30+ points per game. That should change in 2021.
The Hogs offensive line is both the most talented and deepest that its’ been in five years. 2016 was the penultimate season for former headman Bert Bielema, where the Hogs averaged 36 points per game and finished 8-5. An offense (and running back) will only go as far as their line will take them. I believe the Hogs will be one of the most improved lines in the country in ’21. Former Arizona State Sun Devil, Trelon Smith should lead the room this season. Listed at 5’9″ and 190-pounds, he doesn’t fit the profile of a prototypical 1,000-yard SEC workhorse back. However, having watched him a good bit and reading what the staff has said about him for some time, I think he’s got the toughness and strength to defy his physical limitations that are evident on paper. While the players were different in their styles and the competition was incomparable, we saw a 5’9″ and 200-pound Devin “Motor” Singletary carry the ball 301 times and score 32 rushing touchdowns under former FAU OC Kendal Briles in 2017. Will Smith approach those numbers in 2021? No. However, he was on pace for 1,000 rushing yards last season, and he wasn’t the featured back for a portion of the year. I don’t have many NFL hopes and aspirations for Smith, but I think he will surprise some people with his production and skills this year.
If you are asking (or reading) this question through a devy lens, I think the most intriguing player in the room is Raheim “Rocket” Sanders. The true freshman was listed by an athlete on most recruiting sites, and he’s already bigger than most NFL feature backs. Listed at 6’2″ and 225-pounds, Sanders transitioned to RB for the Hogs as an early enrollee this spring. He dealt with a high ankle sprain, but he still found a way to make positive impressions on his teammates and the staff. Physically, he looks like All American WR Treylon Burks. Both guys played linebacker in high school and could be standouts on the other side of the ball if they didn’t possess the ball skills they do on offense. Rocket played in a peculiar offense in high school but managed to average 16 yards per carry as a senior. He is still learning the position, and I don’t expect him to have a tremendous statistical season in 2021. However, his unique skill set may be such that Briles finds ways to incorporate him into the mix. My guess would be that it takes place later in the season rather than earlier, but that’s just an anecdotal musing. The Hogs have six backs that they feel reasonably confident in using to spell Trelon Smith, but none of the others possess the combination of size, athleticism, and versatility as Rocket. Josh Oglesby is considered one of the Hogs’ most explosive players, but at 5’8″ and 175-pounds, he’s a full kindergartner lighter than Sanders, and I don’t think he’s likely to stave off Rocket for long as the Robin to Smith’s Batman. Philosophically, I would never advise drafting a true freshman like Rocket in pure devy drafts, but he’s a very intriguing option in C2C and CFF dynasty formats.
Any returning starter dope would be helpful…who is flush and who is starting over? (@cullycat1)
From a macro standpoint, returning production is higher across college football than it has ever been before. With the NCAA allowing super seniors to return this year after the COVID-riddled 2020 season, we have a collective of teams with an unprecedented amount of experience. My research has indicated that teams from a Group of Five conference will enjoy the experience even more so than teams from Power Five conferences, likely due to the supply of legitimate NFL prospects.
I’m going to borrow these returning production numbers from my friend Bill Connelly at ESPN. He weights some of the numbers for games played by the team last season.
Top 10:
- Wyoming (95%)
- ULL (95%)
- Arizona State (95%)
- FAU (93%)
- Nevada (93%)
- UCLA (93%)
- CMU (92%)
- EMU (92%)
- Rutgers (92%)
- Hawaii (92%)
Bottom 10:
120. Texas (59%)
121. South Carolina (58%)
122. Duke (57%)
123. Stanford (57%)
124. Alabama (56%)
125. Notre Dame (55%)
126. Florida (54%)
127. Old Dominion (52%)
128. Ohio State (50%)
129. Northwestern (39%)
According to Bill’s numbers, the median team (#65) returns 77% of their production! Absurd. According to his numbers, 100 teams returned at least 70% of last year’s production. Will this more heavily positively impact the top teams that return everyone, or will it more negatively impact the high turnover teams? I guess that we see some better than normal mid-major teams, and the teams that rank near the bottom could have some challenging campaigns. Oddly enough, Texas, Alabama, Notre Dame, Florida, and Ohio State all rank within the sixteen heaviest favorites to win the CFP, according to the odds at Draft Kings. Texas will be breaking in a new QB and entirely new coaching staff. Alabama will be breaking in a new OC and replacing a first-round pick at QB. After the NFL drafted last year’s starters, Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Florida will be breaking in new QBs. I don’t invest too heavily in the CFP market, but this may be a good year to bet on Oklahoma to get over the hump. They’ve got the Heisman favorite and chalk to be selected #1 overall in next year’s NFL Draft at QB, their best defense (on paper) in many years, and they return 76% of their production from a season ago. Texas could be in for a rocky year one in a new system, and while Iowa State has played the Sooners very tough in recent years (Last six decided by one score), they’ve lost nine out of the last ten to Oklahoma.
What’s your take on how the Oklahoma receiver room shakes out this year? I know better than to have expectations for true freshmen receivers, but Mario sounds special. (@atldan)
I’m gonna cheat here because I’ve already spent a lot of time digging into this after spring ball. This is an excerpt from my CFF preview on Oklahoma:
I’ve gotta give credit where it’s due; my voluptuously bearded colleague and friend, Gregor Brandt, tried telling everyone about Mims last off-season, before he’d ever seen the field for OU. Unfortunately, I didn’t listen to his advice to acquire Mims at a minimal cost. It’s not a lock that Mims will be Rattler’s WR1, but he’s currently the odds-on favorite. The market has spoken with a full-throated agreement. Mims was taken in round three as the WR8 in a recent best ball draft. That’s too steep for me, given his minimal usage last year and the surrounding talent that he will compete against. “Mims wasn’t the first, second or even third option in the Oklahoma offense this past year,” wrote PFF’s Anthony Treash. “The true freshman ranked fourth on his team in total routes run but was by far the most productive Sooner and one of the most productive receivers in the FBS. His 89.1 receiving grade and 4.07 yards per route run both ranked among the 10 best marks at the position in 2020. The 5-foot-11 and 177-pound receiver showed quality body adjustment and speed while routinely getting open downfield. Despite seeing only 49 targets, Mims was able to bring down 11 deep receptions in 2020 (tied for the fourth-most in the Power Five). His stock is on the rise for 2021.”
“The first thing about Marvin is he has got high character,” said co-offensive coordinator and inside receivers coach Cale Gundy this spring. “He’s a very hard worker. So he’s setting the examples. Again, we’re always talking to our players, showing videos of former players, past players, NFL greats, whether it’s football or a story in baseball or boxing, of what you have to do in order to get to where you want to get, in order to be successful, in order to be good. And he’s one of those guys that kind of falls in the line of how hard he works, and he’s extremely intelligent. He’s somebody that you only have to tell something one time. You tell him one time in the meeting room, and you better be right because he’s going to do it that way every single time… But he brought up the level of competition, and that’s what we have to have. I mean, the better he is, the better the next guy is. If you want to catch the ball more, you better be playing better than Marvin Mims or you better be playing better than Drake Stoops or whoever it is at that position.”
Mims’ numbers as a true freshman in 2020 prove that he should be the focal point of the attack in 2021, but it’s still uncertain, in my eyes. Theo Wease was an incredible high school recruit that led the Sooners in targets last year with 53. Mims had 49. Jadon Haselwood is another ballyhooed recruit that wasn’t able to stay healthy last year. He was healthy this spring and was getting glowing reports from his teammates and the staff. Jason Kersey identified him as a player whose stock he’s buying after spring ball, “The No. 1 wide receiver in the 2019 recruiting class, he has made only 23 career receptions for 337 yards and one touchdown. As a freshman, he struggled to break through in an offense that included future first-rounder CeeDee Lamb. Then he tore his ACL last spring, an injury that continued to affect him even after he returned to game action midway through his sophomore season. But Haselwood might be primed for a big year. He made an acrobatic one-handed grab in the spring game. Haselwood is playing outside receiver again after spending most of his limited 2020 snaps in the slot. “That will be a positive move for him,” Riley said. “Getting back from the knee, his confidence continues to grow as he gets settled in. Jadon had a really nice spring, but compared to what we think he can be in the fall, there’s a lot of big, big jumps that kid can still make.” He’s going to get a lot of snaps as an outside WR, which is where he will likely be competing for targets with both Theo Wease and Arkansas transfer Mike Woods. Woods didn’t have the recruiting pedigree that Wease or Haselwood possessed, but I loved him as an incoming freshman at Arkansas. He played 82% of his snaps last year from a wide alignment in Fayetteville. His skill set matches with outside receivers’. Mims took ⅔ of his snaps last year from a wide alignment, and ⅓ came inside. Drake Stoops, son of Bob, will get snaps as an inside receiver, but he doesn’t possess the game-breaking skills of the rest of these receivers. However, he’s crafty and reliable, as the prototypical walk-on, white slot receiver that’s the son of a famous coach. Let’s take a look at which alignment Linc has preferred for his WR1 at Oklahoma:
2015: Sterling Shepard (115 targets) 86-1289-11 (71% slot)
2016: Dede Westbrook (104 targets) 80-1518-17 (86% outside)
2017: Hollywood Brown (82 targets) 57-1087-7 (86% outside)
2018: Hollywood Brown (103 targets) 75-1318-10 (75% outside)
2019: CeeDee Lamb (88 targets) 62-1325-14 (70% outside)
We gotta go all the way back to 2015 to find Linc’s WR1 as a guy that primarily played slot. So, we have several guys with alignment versatility, but most will get looks on the outside. I don’t feel sure how this thing shakes out. We may not see a dominant season from any of these guys. We could see several of them catch 50-ish balls, and they could be the top passing offense in the country. The data indicates that we will typically see one or two guys peppered with balls, but Oklahoma has never enjoyed this embarrassment of riches at WR since Linc has been calling the shots. I haven’t even gotten to one of the most talked-about true freshmen in the program, Mario Williams. Kersey had this to say about him after the spring, “The No. 42 prospect for 2021 from Plant City (Fla.) High quickly established himself as a big-play threat after enrolling early. In the spring game, he finished with five catches for 84 yards — although as mentioned, the 50-yard completion is contested. Williams also fumbled a reverse in the spring game. But given Oklahoma’s potential depth problems at receiver and Williams’ talent and speed, he has a chance to start. “One of the fastest players on our side of the ball,” inside receivers coach Cale Gundy said. “He loves to compete. He loves to practice. He loves to play ball. He’s a good player. He’s an intelligent young man. There’s an opportunity for him to help us in the return game … (and an) opportunity for him to be out there and be able to stretch the field. … For a young man who still should be in high school right now, he’s awfully impressive.” The only thing that I’ve disagreed with Kersey about was his comment that Oklahoma has “depth concerns” at WR. I don’t see that at all! This fall, Williams will likely get some looks and grow into a key cog of this offense in ’22 and ’23. I won’t take him in seasonal leagues, but he’s got my attention in dynasty and C2C formats. Rather than taking Mims in the third round of a seasonal draft, I may elect to dumpster dive and take any of Wease, Woods, or Haselwood in rounds 20+. Aside from Mims in the third, only Woods and Williams were taken in a recent 26-round best ball draft. I participated in that draft, and I can’t believe I missed that and didn’t take Wease or Haselwood with some of my final picks. I think the market will correct on those two, but they are both potential 1,000-yard guys this year. Again, they could end up doing nothing, but they could also be Linc and Spencer’s WR1. The juice is worth the squeeze when 80+ other receivers have been taken ahead of them.
I want 5 team season win totals that will cash. (@dadeano860)
UTEP Over 3 wins -110 (Draft Kings)
Kent State Over 5.5 wins +115 (Draft Kings)
Boston College Over 7 wins -140 (Draft Kings)
TCU Over 7.5 wins -125 (Draft Kings)
Utah Over 8.5 wins -140 (Draft Kings)
Thoughts on these season win totals? (@cashincajun)
Ole Miss Under 7.5: Offensively, I think the Rebs will be able to trade punches with anybody. The big question for me is how much has their defense improved? They’ve attacked that side of the ball on the recruiting trail, getting a couple of potential impact players from the JUCO ranks, but it still may be another year or two before they can legitimately field an average defense. It’s generally not a great plan to rely on freshmen as key players in the SEC, but last year’s class was impressive. Apparently, the defense was impressive in the first week of fall camp, but they were torched in the opening scrimmage over the weekend. They likely start 3-0; however, Louisville is a losable game. Let’s give them two of the next three with wins over Arkansas and Tennessee and a loss to Bama. 5-1. Their next three are LSU, Auburn, and Liberty. Very possible they go 0-3, but we will go 1-2. 6-3. They likely lose to Texas A&M, 6-4. Then, they get Vandy, 7-4. Finally, they get the Egg Bowl (!), and they should be favored in that game, which gets them to 8-4. Even in my exercise, I still couldn’t bring myself to take the over. There are a ton of marginal games. Whenever I really dissect RSW’s, I often find the best course of action is to bet individual key games rather than lock up money in a RSW wager. I think that could be the best play with Ole Miss, if you like the Under 7.5. There are a bunch of swing games where you will get a fair price to back their opposition. I may go that route; this one is tight for me.
UCLA Over 7: UCLA is one of the most experienced teams in the country. They have a system that they are well-drilled in, a veteran QB, a quality OL, and a bevy of skill talent. In recent years, their defense was a sieve. They improved last year, and they return a ton of talent and experience this season. It’s easy to forecast UCLA as an improved team this fall, especially after a 3-4 finish in 2020, where their four losses came by a combined 15 points. Let’s break down the pretty straightforward wins first:
Hawaii, Fresno State, Arizona
We can feel reasonably confident that those three are banked. Stanford can be difficult to prepare for, but let’s give them that one as well. I’m not quite ready to buy Colorado’s resurgence. That’s four and five. We need two or three more.
The games that I don’t feel confident about for them are Utah, and more so, Oregon. So, they would need to win at least two (push) and three (win) against a combo of LSU (home), ASU (home), Washington (Away), USC (Away), and Cal (Home). I think they are more likely to win a total of eight as opposed to six. Would we be better served to back them on an individual week basis? Probably. But, that’s often the case. I am on board with UCLA here.
Illinois Over 3.5: Illinois made an interesting hire of BIG BERT. His brand of football has proven to be delightful when he has one of the league’s best rosters (Wisconsin) and meh when he is near the bottom (Arkansas). He’s definitely more Arkansas than Wisconsin in Champaign, but it’s worth noting that he only won 3 games or less once at Arky. They’ve got an experienced QB, a talented line, a stable of backs, and talented (albeit unproven) pass catchers. They weren’t good on offense last year. Unfortunately, they weren’t good on defense either, but it’s easier to forecast improvement on defense for them because I’m just not sure the offensive style is going to work great. They open up the season as seven-point dogs at home to Nebraska, so I think that shows what the early market thinks of them. In fairness, we are talking about a team that needs to win four games to cash, but they won’t be prohibitive favorites in many of their games. They are 6.5 point favorites against UTSA in week two, and I’m awfully tempted to take the Road Runners if this thing creeps up over a touchdown. They will be dogs to Virginia. So, let’s go with 1-2 after three. The next three-game stretch is the money stretch: Maryland (Home), Purdue (Away), and Charlotte (Home). Let’s call it 2-1. So, that puts us at 3-3, but 1-5 is a legitimate possibility. If they sit at 3-3, they need to win one game at home against Rutgers or a roadie to close the show against Northwestern. They may need both, the more I think about it. I’ll lean your way on the over here, but the non-conference games don’t do them any favors, especially considering that Charlotte almost beat Tennessee in Neyland in the not-so-distant past.
Oklahoma Under 11: I really like Oklahoma this year, but I think under is the only way that you can play this one. Realistically, you probably push, but you’ve got some outs to win it, more than going with an over and an unblemished season, for my money. You’ve got a chance in the RRS (Neutral), TCU (Home – off RRS), Iowa State (Home), and Bedlam on the road. Oklahoma will be at least two score favorites in every game as of this moment, but I couldn’t go over, even if I think they are a legit CFP contender.
LSU Over 8.5: I like LSU this year. I think taking the decision away between Johnson and Brennan is actually a positive for them. Now, if the oft-running Johnson gets hurt, things get really dicey as they don’t have a quality backup ready to go. That is something that would scare me a bit on this bet. As far as the first unit offense goes, I think they are going to be dynamic. Defensively, they have all the pieces, including two of the best corners in the league, but their defense badly failed them last year. I expect improvement, but I can’t unsee some moments from 2020. LSU should be favored to start the year 6-0. Let’s say they drop one, perhaps to UCLA on the road or Auburn at home. 5-1. ULM is a freebie, and they should beat both Ole Miss and Arkansas. That means you either have your nine if they start the first sixth unscathed, or you need one out of Florida (Home), Bama (Away), Texas A&M (Home). I think they are more likely to win nine than seven, but Johnson’s health is one of the most critical pieces to their success, as any player is to their respective team across the country. An eight is available at Draft Kings with a more expensive price tag, and I would be willing to pay the piper on that one for the push-out.
