“Is this a new beginning, or the beginning of the end?” – Dexter Morgan
Who do you think will be RB1 for Utah and replace Moss? @Wvschorn
This is an excerpt from a “MY GUYS” article that I just wrote:
“Jordan Wilmore, Utah – The highest-rated recruit in program history, Wilmore had 49-194-1 rushing, and two catches as a true freshman in 2019. At 5’8” and 206-pounds, the man was born to be a running back. This is a single back offense, and there is potential for the RB1 to see 300 carries in a full-length-season. In a recent interview, Wilmore indicated that his preparation in 2019 was sub-par. His diet wasn’t clean, and he didn’t know how to prepare like a collegiate back. The former USC pledge left Cali for Utah because he likes to bang. He reminds me of Zack Moss in CEH’s body. That combo, plus his CFF potential, is probably why I’m fond of him. He’s currently listed as the backup, or 1B at best, but I believe he will end up as the top back for the Utes in 2020.”
Is it worth drafting 1st/2nd yr power 5 RBs sight unseen in C2C? Seems like it is over like a Bryant Koback type. I am learning this as I go, but lately, like Devyn Ford is more appealing than Elijah Mitchell. @al_FF_red
As of my writing this, college football in 2020 is on the ropes. The MAC has canceled, but no other conferences have followed suit. As such, I’m going to answer this question first as it pertains to current drafts that are underway, and then I’ll shed some light on some philosophical beliefs that I have in regards to this format.
Devyn Ford v. Elijah Mitchell – I’ll start with Ford. He’s never been on my radar in any format. I knew his name, but I had to research him to answer your question properly. I know Mitchell. He was one of the most productive and explosive runners in the G5 last year. Ford is a true sophomore, and Mitchell is a true senior in 2020. Ford can’t go pro until the 2022 draft, and Mitchell doesn’t have the profile of a day two NFL pick or better. Currently, we don’t know how the NCAA will handle eligibility if they cancel the season. It’s reasonable to assume eligibility will be extended to fall sports the way that the NCAA granted it to canceled spring sports, but it’s still a risk. Will the NCAA still have power next season? Will small schools have the financial resources to weather a year of lost football revenue? To say there is an abundance of uncertainty at the moment would be an understatement. I would side with Mitchell in this exercise. Better to know you have an asset on one side with the possibility of two than having uncertainty on both sides as you do with Ford.
It’s important to recognize that very few players in college will be assets in the NFL. A bunch of the guys drafted in rounds one and two of rookie drafts each year don’t pan out. Let’s be extremely kind and say 30 players matter every cycle. Can you say with confidence that either of these guys will comprise that 30 man group whenever their time comes? I can’t. I’ve made a great living in C2C drafting guys like Mitchell and Koback while my league mates take guys like Ford. I want the collegiate production. Beyond the first few rounds of a startup, a C2C league shouldn’t be considered a devy league. It’s actually a huge dynasty CFF league with a small devy component. There will come the point in every startup once new owners look around and realize that they are grasping at straws by taking true freshmen or other younger players with the hopes that they will be devy assets while 2-4 of their other league mates are building a beast on the college side of things. Once that revelation hits, it’s generally too late. Confusion and doubt creep in, and that’s not a great headspace to make either rational or creative decisions, in which the best drafters have the ability to live simultaneously in both spaces. The last thing I will say is to avoid the facade that younger players are better than seniors in this format. If you can go through a fifty round startup and have ten or less true freshmen, you will do well for yourself. Don’t be afraid to turn your roster over nearly every year, the best teams in this format do that. The one area where they make their bones is to capture a two-to three-man succession plan at the most historically productive team’s positions. Ie, Boise running backs, Memphis running backs, Briles’ skill guys, Gundy’s skill guys, Riley’s skill guys, Norvell’s skill guys, etc. Lock up the senior RB1 and then be sure to take the junior RB2 and then go down and get a freshman or sophomore who will take over after both of those guys for 1K+ yards over the next couple of seasons. Elite situations are the name of the game, and oft-neglected.
What is the ceiling for Keaontay Ingram? @PeysonNFL
This is an excerpt from a “MY GUYS” article that I just wrote:
“Keaontay Ingram, Texas – I used to moonlight as a devy analyst for DCC. About 18 months ago, I recommended three players to that community that I believed would be considered high-value devy targets to prioritize that were unlikely currently owned: Auburn WR Seth Williams, Oklahoma State RB Chuba Hubbard, and Texas RB Keaontay Ingram. Two of the three were big winners, and Ingram may have slightly decreased in value, but realistically more of a net neutral. Ingram is a player that I’ve liked since I watched him in high school. He entered college ball with a frame that reminded me of Kerryon Johnson and pass-catching abilities that reminded me of Alvin Kamara. Ingram hasn’t been healthy very often for Texas in his career. His high school ran him into the ground deep into a playoff run, and he seemingly never fully recovered. When healthy, he’s shown he’s an NFL RB. One thing that the staff has done is pack good weight onto him. He entered the program at 190 pounds and is currently listed at 222 pounds. Ingram is built like an NFL feature back, and he is an unusually good pass catcher (except for the LSU game last year) for a man that’s his size. Heading into last year, he was my Devy RB1 in the 2021 class, and I aggressively overdrafted him in CFF. The latter was surely a mistake, but the former may not hurt too bad as he is still on a trajectory for a day two pick in the NFL Draft in 2021 or 2022. He’s not going to cost as much as Najee Harris, but similar to a player like Moss in the last cycle; he’s going to get a lot of interviews from teams looking to spend modestly for a bellcow.”
With the (potential) cancellation/postponement by the B1G 10/PAC12, if other conferences choose to move forward, will student-athletes be allowed to transfer with waivers? Or will this be prevented by the “conveniently” timed announcement coinciding with the start of classes? @rahuggins3
It would seem logical for the NCAA to attempt to save face and curry goodwill by passing a rule like this, but my faith in their ability to administer justice is minuscule. Apologies for being short, but I truly don’t know what that may do from a governance standpoint. I hope that this is the last year that we have to think about the NCAA, and we somehow see a succession from their organization by next season. The list of things they do well versus the harm they’ve done (and will continue to do) leans heavily in favor of the latter. If we lose this season, I do hope we see the players taken better care of in the future. I don’t feel confident that comes under the umbrella of the NCAA, or at least the organization’s current iteration.
How many tuddies does Arik Gilbert snag this fall? I’m going with 12 as my projection. Might be too conservative, though. @eliknowsall
I love the optimism! Hey, if we get a full-season and Chase were to opt-out, he could meet your lofty expectations! The most single-season touchdowns by a TE over the past five years are:
9, 10, 11, 16, 9
Gilbert is a better prospect than all of those guys, but with a shortened season and being a true freshman, that would be an all-timer!
Seriously, though- do you expect any COVID-related trends to emerge during games this fall due to a weird buildup to the season? @eliknowsall
I would expect a few things:
- Sloppy offensive play to start the year. Timing has likely been disrupted between passers and receivers, and the OL won’t have the chance to get as many reps as usual.
- Pace to be a wild card. I have my doubts that offenses will be in great shape to start the year, so perhaps they dial it back, but if a team can move at warp-speed effectively, the results could be even more positively pronounced this season. Some teams may be forced to slow things down until they get their team’s cardio straightened out.
- Offenses to be simplified. This is a great year to have a playbook like UNC OC Phil Longo. His playbook is typically 30 plays or less and has been fully installed in two days. Having cohesion both on staff and between skill players could prove to be a massive edge for teams early in the season.
- The old adage, “If you have two quarterbacks, you have no quarterback,” will be changed to “If you have two quarterbacks, you have a shot to contend in 2020,” There are a lot of teams that would fall of a cliff if their QB1 were to miss time for COVID-19 or other ailments. This is a great year to split the reps at QB a bit more generously. Unfortunately, with spring ball being lost to most teams, it may not be feasible. Tough times.
