“And they call me Bill, ’cause I’m all about a dollar
I ain’t selling makeup, but you know I got that product
You could call me Brady, ’cause that money I got a bunch” – Kodak
Do you think Master Teague will start of the year, or Sermon will completely overtake him before the first week? @CamsNewGamePlan
The University has been pretty tight-lipped with the extent of Teague’s injury, but it’s my understanding that he tore his Achilles tendon. If that is the case, there is a chance that he isn’t available for part or all of the season. It’s certainly not an injury that a running back with NFL ambitions would be wise to rush back from. As such, I think Sermon will be the primary ball carrier for them in 2020. Will he be leaned on the way that Dobbins was? Probably not. He’s coming off of a knee injury himself, but he should be healthy by fall. If the season is delayed a month or two, it’s possible that Teague could have recovered, but I’m not particularly optimistic. Considering how many NFL guys Ohio State has at every position right now, it’s bizarre that they’ve allowed the running back room to deteriorate to the level that it has. None of the young guys are proven entities, but I watched all of them as high school players, and I’m not particularly fond of any of the backs beyond Teague or Sermon. The Bucks need one or both of these guys back this season, although they would be wise to run Fields more and let him air it out with even more frequency.
Do you think spreads will change in college if all games are played with no fans? @CamsNewGamePlan
I don’t think they will change very much. The crowd is only a significant factor in a handful of stadiums each week. I think the disruption of a typical weekly routine is more of a challenge to visiting teams than crowd noise. I used to try to make unique home-field advantage numbers for each venue during one season when I wanted to implement strict power ratings. Since then, I’ve realized my best process is far more art than science, and I’m better served spending my time focused on actually handicapping the games than updating bunches of number sets and everything else that goes with that process. There’s only so much time in a day, and my need to be prepared by Sunday and Monday for the upcoming week makes me focus on what’s important. This is an interesting question, and there will undoubtedly be some unforeseen hurdles and opportunities with the changes in the sports calendar. Still, I don’t think this will be a significant factor.
Demond Demas outlook assuming there is a 2020 season? @Tha_Mog
I think he is probably still a year out from making a significant impact from a statistical standpoint. I’m not saying that he is Ja’Marr Chase or that the Ags’ offense in ‘21 will be like LSU’s in ‘19, but a stat line of 23-313-3 as a freshman before a sophomore explosion seems like a fair trajectory to me. Maybe that’s too conservative? When looking at the depth chart, Demas’ opportunity is more significant than I initially assumed about five minutes ago, so he could be closer to 40-600-4. If Ainias Smith truly stays at running back, the receiver room pretty much resets after Ausbon but gets back TE Baylor Cupp, who missed last year with an injury. Demas has to fend off Buckley, Preston, and Wright for opportunity? That’s not a big ask for a five-star prospect. Looking at Jimbo’s last three offenses, his WR2 went for 40-604-4, 34-474-1, and 54-616-4.
I just need you to use your one time on Hurts going round 1 or Clyde being 1st RB off the board. I’m not picky; one of the two will do. @eliknowsall
CEH is going off as RB1 at pick 39 to the Dolphins. Book it!
Top 5 Big 12 WRs/RBs next year? @Zero_Angle
RBs:
- Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State
- Breece Hall, Iowa State
- Pooka Williams, Kansas
- Kennedy Brooks, Oklahoma
- SaRodorick Thompson, Texas Tech
WRs:
- Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State
- Sam James, West Virginia
- Jake Smith, Texas
- Andrew Parchment, Kansas
- Theo Wease, Oklahoma
What are your projected top 5 picks? What widely available props do you still see value on? @cashisking17
1.01 – Joe Burrow, Bengals
1.02 – Chase Young, Redskins
1.03 – Jeff Okudah, Lions
1.04 – Mekhi Becton – Giants
1.05 – Tua Tagovailoa – Dolphins
Too hard for me to predict trades right now, so I’m playing it straight up. Primarily, this is what I think will happen with a hearty dash of me prophesying my money into existence.
Widely available makes this a tough question to answer, but I’ll do my best.
- Trevon Diggs NOT R1 -112
- Under 5.5 Alabama R1 -130
- Derrick Brown Over 7.5 -120
- Cole Kmet Over 45.5 -126
- D’Andre Swift Over 26.5 -167
- Mims ahead of Higgins -167
- CEH ahead of Dobbins +137
- Ruiz ahead of Cleveland -167
- Winfield ahead of Chinn +110
- R1 SAF Under 1.5 -134
How big is your tier of great to really good players for a Super-Flex rookie draft this year that should have a Very good chance of being “hit”? @ern19677
Here are the players, by position, that I feel most comfortable with:
QB: Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert* (Draft him and then trade him before the season)
RB: Jonathan Taylor, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, D’Andre Swift, JK Dobbins, Cam Akers
WR: CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Justin Jefferson, Henry Ruggs
There are other players that I feel confident about to get significant draft capital: Jordan Love, Denzel Mims, Brandon Aiyuk, Jalen Reagor, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, and Cole Kmet to name a few, but that first group of twelve would comprise my first round of a Super-Flex if I had all twelve picks. I’m not sure if that answer is broader than you hoped for, but it was the best way that I knew to answer.
What’s your favorite long shot still available in the draft? @21Repman
Best I got is Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB1 at +2000 (Draft Kings)
Most surprising coach and big player story and/or stat? @Mr_Sea_123
Good Coaching Moves: Matt Rhule and Joe Brady (OC) by Carolina, Todd Monken (OC) by Georgia, Lane Kiffin by Ole Miss, Kendal Briles (OC) by Arkansas, Rick Rolovich by Washington State, Sean Gleason (OC) by Rutgers
Bad Coaching Moves: Steve Adazzio by Colorado State and John Donovan (OC) by Washington
Player stories: Jamie Newman transferring to Georgia and Travis Etienne returning to Clemson
Most surprising stat:
Joe Burrow 2018: 219-379-2894-16-5 passing, 128-399-7 rushing
Bo Nix 2019: 217-377-2542-16-6 passing, 97-313-7 rushing
See a Thad Moss 91.5. Should be a Day-3 guy, right? @samhebert18
On paper and film, unequivocally, YES! However, the nepotism of the NFL knows no bounds. With a name like Moss, anything could happen. Tight ends are hard to forecast, and I don’t know anyone who got rich on draft props spending too much time prognosticating about tight ends. It’s the most challenging position to evaluate for both bettors and front offices. I think it wins, but I won’t take it myself.
Thoughts on Costello this year? @FrattyCapper22
I think he’s a good fit for this offense. He was always too talented to play in Stanford’s antiquated system. Unfortunately, he will now be facing off against some defensive monsters, and he’ll be asked to do it with one of the SEC’s worst receiving corps. Leach likes to rotate eight players in and out at receiver, but he doesn’t have eight guys that can WR at this level right now. Without adjusting for supporting cast and competition, this is how Leach’s QBs have fared in recent years:
2014: 510-771-5732-45-18 passing, 65-(-)201-1 rushing
2015: 500-738-5059-41-12 passing, 85-(-)133-3 rushing
2016: 467-664-4713-40-12 passing, 66-(-)68-0 rushing
2017: 487-713-4769-37-20 passing, 83-(-)198-2 rushing
2018: 478-677-4859-39-10 passing, 58-119-4 rushing
2019: 493-687-5579-48-16 passing, 51-(-)20-0 rushing
I’m pretty sure if you combine the passing stats of every State QB since Sly Croom was in charge that they don’t even account for the 2019 season in Pullman. In addition to the personnel limitations, no spring practice could crush this offensive outlook in 2020. I just drafted Costello around QB17 in a college fantasy draft, and I feel that simply due to volume alone, he can exceed that production mark.
Any chance McKenzie Milton plays this year? Does UNC have a chance to be undefeated going into the ACC championship with almost everyone returning on O? @CamsNewGamePlan
I don’t think there is a realistic chance that Milton returns. He was fortunate that he was able to keep his leg. Unfortunately for him, this is a program that attracts other top talents at quarterback, and it would be foolish to assume that he is currently a better quarterback than Dillon Gabriel. I am rooting for him to fulfill whatever dreams he may have, I just don’t think him playing football at a high level is in the cards for him anymore.
Very little chance. Speaking of UCF, they are going to have a battle at their house week one and then have to play Auburn in a neutral venue in week two. They probably drop one of those games and then will probably be a dog at Miami as well. I am buying UNC in 2020 and beyond, but I think they are likely 9-3 before Clemson.
How big of a gap between Bryce Young and DJ? @abghezzi
Not much. I wouldn’t besmirch the name of a man if he elected to rank one ahead of the other. Both guys look excellent and should be set up for success in college and have the table set for becoming early NFL draft picks in 2023.
What are your top 3 draft props at current lines? @Turkish330
- Trevon Diggs NOT R1 -112
- Cole Kmet Over 45.5 -126
- Mims ahead of Higgins -167
