How have the rookie WRs fared so far? Through 4 weeks, the metrics give us a hint.
The 2022 class of WRs looks to be another exciting one. We’ve got some early indications through 4 weeks this class might have some elite talents. It’s still early, and we don’t fall for small sample sizes, but 4 weeks is an OK signal for some optimism.
| Receiver | Target Share | Route Participation | T/RR | Y/RR | YPTPA | Air Yards/Target | TD Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 34.0% | 84.3% | 0.33 | 2.4 | 2.36 | 10.4 | 11.1% |
| Garrett Wilson | 19.3% | 69.9% | 0.26 | 1.8 | 1.32 | 9.6 | 10.0% |
| Chris Olave | 24.3% | 85.5% | 0.26 | 2.5 | 2.34 | 18.7 | 4.8% |
| Jahan Dotson | 12.4% | 83.8% | 0.13 | 0.9 | 0.88 | 15.0 | 33.3% |
| Treylon Burks | 15.4% | 65.3% | 0.21 | 1.7 | 1.23 | 12.2 | 0.0% |
| Christian Watson | 10.9% | 39.4% | 0.23 | 1.2 | 0.52 | 7.8 | 0.0% |
| George Pickens | 16.2% | 88.2% | 0.17 | 1.3 | 1.29 | 18.3 | 0.0% |
| Alec Pierce | 4.9% | 24.5% | 0.19 | 0.9 | 1.14 | 4.6 | 0.0% |
| Romeo Doubs | 19.0% | 73.8% | 0.22 | 1.7 | 1.37 | 6.7 | 10.5% |
| Kyle Philips | 14.1% | 35.6% | 0.34 | 2.2 | 0.91 | 7.8 | 0.0% |
It didn’t take Drake London very long to assert himself as a true alpha #1 WR in the NFL. He’s stepped in right away and is commanding an insane 34.0% target share through the first 4 weeks of his young career. Once again, we have a rookie WR stepping in right away and commanding targets at an incredibly high rate but 34.0% is a little unprecedented. We’re getting 1-2 of these players once a year it seems.
London has immediately stepped in and is commanding an elite target share. He’s already the #1 option on the Falcons even while playing alongside Kyle Pitts. Arthur Smith hates Pitts but that’s another topic.
Just to put into perspective how big of a pie London is commanding right now, Cooper Kupp is #1 in target share through 4 weeks with 36.2% of the Rams targets. Drake London is 2nd.
Top 10 Target Share
- Cooper Kupp 36.2%
- Drake London 34.0% 👀
- CeeDee Lamb 33.1%
- AJ Brown 32.2%
- Davante Adams 32.0%
- Mark Andrews 31.9%
- Tyreek Hill 30.9%
- Amon-Ra St. Brown 30.6%
- Jakobi Meyers 29.2%
- Diontae Johnson 28.5%
Garrett Wilson is another special talent just waiting to be unleashed full-time. Even with Elijah Moore, Wilson has been able to get a healthy dose of targets. He’s only running 69.9% of routes for the Jets. His efficiency metrics look elite, and if he gets more usage, the monster fantasy outputs will follow. He’s been able to show more than just flashes with the playtime he’s been given so far to warrant the hype. His 0.26 t/rr with a minimum of 100 routes run puts him in company among the likes of Justin Jefferson, Diontae Johnson, and fellow rookie Chris Olave all sporting a 0.26 t/rr. This gives us an insight into what kind of target share they can command going forward.
Chris Olave has been the air yards king through 4 weeks. For a WR that commands a 20%+ target share for his team, usually, those guys don’t have such a high air yards/target. He’s getting targeted downfield at a high rate. This number will surely come down, maybe, but it’s impressive he’s been able to sustain it through 4 weeks. DeVante Parker has the highest air yards/target at 19.0, but he’s only seeing a 13.7% of the pie.
Jahan Dotson is riding incredibly high on TDs. There’s no way he can keep getting TDs at this rate, right? While some rookies, notably Burks and Pickens, are still searching for their first, Dotson has already scored 3 while seeing only 0.13 t/rr, which is the lowest amongst qualifying rookie WRs.
Treylon Burks has seen increased usage each week but has yet to truly break out. I’m not at all panicked and would be looking to buy given the chance. In week 4, Burks was carted off with a foot injury. He’s expected to miss some time with turf toe. I’d monitor the situation to see how much time he’ll miss. Regardless, I’ll be buying given the current cost. It’s at least encouraging to see it’s not a lost season.
George Pickens’ recent uptick in targets is promising. He’s coming off his best performance to date against the Jets, putting up 6 catches on 8 targets for 102 yards, his first 100-yard game of his career. I’m firmly holding for now and willing to let the year play out. Kenny Pickett is now the starting QB for the Steelers going forward, and Pickens just might be his preferred target. His highlight-worthy, routine acrobatic catches aren’t slowing down the hype anytime soon either.
Skyy Moore is going to require some patience. I’d hate to get rid of him for less only to regret it in the second half of 2022 as he gets more integrated into the offense, an offense helmed by the goat Patrick Mahomes. Why would I want to give up on that this early in the season?
Romeo Doubs has been a nice surprise in the NFL. Of course, in the devy world, we’re not too shocked by his play. He looks like he could be Aaron Rodgers’ top target sooner rather than later. He might even supplant Watson, the Packers’ 2nd round pick, and Lazard if he hasn’t already.
Some Recommendations: KTC value
- Buy High Candidates: Drake London (WR9) 👑 Garrett Wilson (WR14)
- Buy w/ Optimism: Chris Olave (WR13) George Pickens (WR21), Treylon Burks (WR27)
- Sell High: Jahan Dotson (WR29)
- Sell after a blowup game: Christian Watson (WR44), Alec Pierce (WR53)
- Enjoy the Production but Sell for a Premium Pick: Romeo Doubs (WR37)
- Hold but Sell for a Premium Pick/Devy player: Skyy Moore (WR46)
While some WRs are already off to a great start and some are still finding their footing, don’t forget about the guys who haven’t been able to get on the field due to injuries. I’m of course referring to the likes of Jameson Williams (WR20) 👀 Wan’Dale Robinson, and Tyquan Thornton. We don’t need to further discuss what Jameson Williams can do. Even though he hasn’t stepped foot in the field yet, the dynasty market is still higher on Jamo than Burks and some other rookies. Robinson and Thornton showed flashes in the offseason but unfortunately got hurt early on. They’ll look to make an impact in the coming weeks. We can only hope to get a few more studs out of this class by year’s end.
