We’re already halfway into the NFL season, and we’ve got some more data points on our rookie WRs. It’s starting to become apparent which performances are real and which ones might be a mirage. There are definitely some studs who have separated from the pack. We just have to keep in mind there’s still plenty of football left to play but some of these rookies need to catch up in a hurry.
I’ve incorporated two new columns this time and eliminated one: Air Yards/Target.
WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating) – this is an average of a player’s share of the team targets and share of team air yards.
Fantasy Points Per Game (1 Point Per Reception scoring)
| Receiver | Target Share | Route Participation | T/RR | Y/RR | YPTPA | WOPR | TD rate | Fantasy PPG - PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 28.5% | 84.7% | 0.27 | 1.9 | 1.94 | 0.63 | 6.7% | 9.8 |
| Garrett Wilson | 20.1% | 75.2% | 0.24 | 1.8 | 1.43 | 0.45 | 5.9% | 11.1 |
| Chris Olave | 25.3% | 84.0% | 0.28 | 2.4 | 2.21 | 0.65 | 5.4% | 14.8 |
| Jahan Dotson | 12.4% | 83.8% | 0.13 | 0.9 | 0.88 | 0.36 | 33.3% | 13.0 |
| Treylon Burks | 15.4% | 65.3% | 0.21 | 1.7 | 1.23 | 0.40 | 0.0% | 6.0 |
| Christian Watson | 7.5% | 29.9% | 0.22 | 1.2 | 0.38 | 0.16 | 0.0% | 4.5 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 14.3% | 56.6% | 0.21 | 1.4 | 0.98 | 0.28 | 8.3% | 7.2 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 13.4% | 79.9% | 0.14 | 0.7 | 0.64 | 0.34 | 12.5% | 7.3 |
| George Pickens | 15.2% | 88.6% | 0.15 | 1.1 | 1.15 | 0.41 | 3.8% | 8.2 |
| Alec Pierce | 13.7% | 67.2% | 0.18 | 1.7 | 1.29 | 0.41 | 4.2% | 9.6 |
| Skyy Moore | 6.5% | 25.9% | 0.21 | 1.8 | 0.51 | 0.14 | 0.0% | 1.7 |
| David Bell | 5.2% | 50.9% | 0.10 | 0.9 | 0.45 | 0.12 | 0.0% | 2.4 |
| Romeo Doubs | 18.1% | 82.9% | 0.19 | 1.2 | 1.05 | 0.44 | 10.0% | 9.6 |
| Khalil Shakir | 7.6% | 33.8% | 0.19 | 1.7 | 0.63 | 0.17 | 16.7% | 4.6 |
| Kyle Philips | 12.9% | 39.7% | 0.27 | 1.6 | 0.76 | 0.28 | 0.0% | 3.0 |
Boss Hogs
Drake London is certifiably a stud. Now we just wait for the Falcons to insert their franchise QB into an offense that’s nesting two athletic towers of athletes in London and Pitts. Offensive explosions are coming, it’s only a matter of when.
Garrett Wilson continues to demand targets like a boss. The only thing holding him back is Zach Wilson at the moment. Elijah Moore has been completely erased from this offense after showing promise in his rookie season. Hopefully, Wilson doesn’t fall victim to this, but some coaching staffs do weird things.
Chris Olave, the other Ohio State stud, has been really special. Not only is he earning targets at a very high rate, but he’s also sporting an insane 16.5 adot (average depth of target) as well.
Intermittent Flashers
George Pickens has flashed in an impressive fashion, making ridiculous highlight catches routinely. The Steelers’ offense has not been great and now have rookie QB, Kenny Pickett at the helm. We need to temper our expectations but Pickens is definitely not the problem. The recent trade of Chase Claypool to the Bears only helps solidify Pickens as a key piece of the Steelers’ offense for the foreseeable future. Let’s just hope they can find a way to get him the ball more often and let him do the rest.
Wan’Dale Robinson was a much-needed boost to a Giants’ offense that is severely lacking playmakers outside of Saquon Barkley. Robinson made an immediate impact once he came back from injury scoring a TD against the Ravens. He followed up that performance with an 8 target 6 reception for 50 yards against the Jaguars. In the meantime, Giants traded away last year’s 1st round pick, Kadarius Toney, to the Chiefs. There’s plenty of opportunity for Robinson to take advantage of an offense sorely missing a true #1 option at WR, he just has to take it.
Sufficient Support
Alec Pierce, since coming back from injury, has seen a healthy dose of targets. His speed has been on full display. He’s yet another WR being held back by their offense. 14-year veteran Matt Ryan who was brought in to replace Carson Wentz as a supposed upgrade has now been benched. Sam Ehlinger is now the starter for the remainder of the year. In Ehlinger’s first start this season he targeted Pierce 5 times. Pierce was able to generate 65 yards on 3 receptions. Maybe this offense can turn it around and in doing so, relies on its top 2 pass-catching weapons in Michael Pittman and Pierce.
Romeo Doubs has provided some much-needed relief to the Packers’ barren WR corps. The 4th rounder has easily outplayed his draft capital already and might soon become the top option at WR for Rodgers. At the moment, he’s Aaron Rodgers’ only reliable option at WR. Fellow rookie Christian Watson has struggled to stay on the field due to injuries.
Uncertainty
Treylon Burks has been on IR since he injured his foot (turf toe) back in Week 4. He’ll be out until at least Week 9. There isn’t a definitive timeline on his return yet but the good news is, his season isn’t over. *Fingers crossed* he can salvage his less-than-stellar start to his young career and join the Boss Hogs.
Jahan Dotson started off hot and was scoring TDs at an unsustainable rate then promptly got hit with the injury bug.
Christian Watson has played a total of 104 snaps and hasn’t done much when on the field.
Tyquan Thornton since coming back from injury has only had one meaningful game, not completely his fault. He’s shown better chemistry with Bailey Zappe than Mac Jones. Hopefully, Mac can start utilizing Thornton a little more as they become familiar with each other.
David Bell has been a complete zero so far. Maybe with Deshaun Watson returning after his suspension, Bell can put together something but right now he’s irrelevant.
Khalil Shakir in his only game without starting slot receiver, Isaiah McKenzie, flashed by getting targeted 5 times catching 3 balls for 75 yards and a TD. Unless, McKenzie were to miss time, Shakir will likely struggle to get more usage. However, with rookies, maybe he starts to get more usage in the 2nd half of the season as the Bills unlock another element to their already explosive offense. The Bills pass at the highest rate in the NFL, Shakir should get some looks at some point.
Skyy Moore has done absolutely nothing so far. He’s rarely been able to play over the Chiefs’ other receivers and now has even more competition in the newest Chief, Kadarius Toney. Rookies tend to play better in the latter half of the season than at the start. Let’s hope he sees increased usage on offense after the bye and not just special teams. Toney is only a threat to Moore if he can actually get on the field. Thus far, Toney has been plagued by injuries. I hate to give up on WR that’s tied to Pat Mahomes for the foreseeable future who also had a decent profile as a prospect but we need to start seeing something from him.
The majority of the rookies seem to be stuck in bad offenses while others aren’t getting enough usage. While it’s tough to completely write them off, we should at least see some peripheral metrics to indicate how they’d perform with increased usage. This is what stats like t/rr tell us. We’ve seen the trend for rookies. They usually start to show out in the 2nd half of the season. It makes sense because they’ve had a chance to acclimate to the league and can now truly show if they’ve caught on. This is when we’ll see which rookies are for real and will make an impact on our dynasty teams.
Shout-out ff_spaceman for compiling the data.
