Alabama Crimson Tide

Old OC: Mike Locksley (Resigned Dec. 4 to take Maryland job)
New OC: Steve Sarkisian

“I’ve always tried to tailor our offense to our personnel,” Sarkisian said. “When we got here (Washington), I was dead set on the prostyle offense. But we had a freak athlete in Jake Locker, and I would’ve been a fool not to do more with him. The next year, we didn’t have a tight end and had to work around that. The next year, we went back to a more prostyle approach. Last year, we got back to more spread principles and later worked in the power running game. Every year, you have to evolve to give the team a chance to be successful.” While that was an interview from over five years ago with the Seattle Times, I believe it’s still relevant for what we can expect in 2019. The strengths of the Alabama team are evident. You’ve got an elite QB and WRs, excellent top-end talent and depth at RB, and very little to get excited about at TE. 

Here is a mashup of quotes from an April 2019 article from the Athletic:

“We kind of do what we do,” Saban said. “I think the new coordinator brings new energy, new enthusiasm, new ideas. Sometimes we make tweaks and adaptations to what we do. But we’re pretty successful on offense, especially last year. So why would we change it a lot?”

“I think it was a combination of what we’d been running all season under Kiffin and his stuff, because obviously you don’t want to change everything up for one game,” former offensive lineman Bradley Bozeman said. “He put a bunch of different wrinkles in and just different stuff. A bunch of quick passes and just little stuff like that because he didn’t want to change what we’d been doing all season for one week and he only had one week to do it.” (Reference to CFP game that Sark called)

Talk to enough people about Sarkisian’s offensive style and eventually, they’ll mention the wide receiver screens. So much so that it’s become a joke. Detractors of Sarkisian, mainly Falcons followers, will point out two things with near glee: One is that he loves the wide receiver screen. The other is that he occasionally forgets to give the ball to the running back.

“He does have a West Coast offense background and was asked to essentially continue Shanahan’s scheme in Atlanta. With the Falcons, Sarkisian’s run plays were mostly outside zone, with some inside zone sprinkled in. The run game, or threat of it, was designed to set up the play-action deep ball. There were plenty of quick-game elements to the offense, as well, which is becoming a theme all across the NFL. In all honesty, I wouldn’t expect Sarkisian to run exactly what he did with Atlanta at Alabama. Sure, there will be some carryover. But with a different type of offensive line and personnel in the backfield, I’d be willing to bet the types of plays called with the Crimson Tide will be quite different than with the Falcons.”

“With Coach Sark, it’s really full-field progression reads,” Tagovailoa said. “Last year, we worked more on RPO, and we had that opportunity to perfect it. Now we’re trying to perfect full-progression reads, so reading the entire field this year. I think implementing pure progression reads and RPOs is really going to be big for us this season.”

“Just like everything we did last year, everything’s really the same,” wide receiver DeVonta Smith said. “There’s really no big things that have changed.

So, in order to see the future, it would be wise to look back into the past.

Alabama QB:

2018: 301-438-4854-52-8 passing & 93-357-7 rushing

Alabama RB:

2018: 150-876-9, 117-783-4, 120-640-11 rushing (46 combined catches)

Alabama WR:

2018: 68-1315-14, 45-848-7, 46-741-11, 42-693-6

Alabama TE:

2018: 44-710-7

There really isn’t much new information to go over. Tua should remain a very valuable QB option, while Jeudy remains a top CFF WR, and the other three WRs (Waddle, Ruggs, Smith) are likely great flex options in most leagues. There isn’t room for another WR to emerge to relevance this year, but guys like Shavers and Metchie could be options in a year from now. Najee Harris and Brian Robinson are the clear top two RBs on the roster, but similar to last year, their relevance could be very touchdown-dependent. The wildcards at RB are rFR Jerome Ford, comparable to freshman version of Josh Jacobs before he became the Hulk, and top-rated incoming freshman Trey Sanders. If the rotation is scripted by drives again, I’ll likely pass on these backs in favor of other potentially more voluminous backs. Irv Smith was a terrific weapon at TE. As it stands, I don’t see much chance for a TE to come close to filling his shoes.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Chad Morris’ “Year Zero” at Arkansas was a disaster. Sure, he was implementing wholesale changes to the schemes and culture, but it went worse than probably anybody expected. The first thing he will need to get sorted out is the quarterback. Of the past eight seasons, there are four excellent seasons from his QB, three that were serviceable, and last year was poor. While the range of outcomes are wide, the juice has proved it can be worth the squeeze. In looking at the 2019 roster, the two most like candidates to lead them will be transfers Nick Starkel or Ben Hicks. Hicks played with Morris at SMU and is familiar with this scheme, while Starkel is the more gifted of the two, in my opinion. This offense is challenging to learn, and Starkel didn’t enroll for spring ball, so it’s likely going to be Hicks to open the season, but it could be a scenario in which multiple guys play again. There are too many factors in play here that make me reticent to invest in their QB at this point.

Clemson QB:

2011: 311-525-3952-33-12 passing, 142-218-5 rushing 

2012: 318-474-4176-40-14 passing, 186-514-10 rushing

2013: 340-492-4328-39-12 passing, 168-469-12 rushing

2014: 292-451-3404-23-12 passing, 132-293-6 rushing

SMU QB:

2015: 203-366-2620-19-8 passing, 217-826-10 rushing

2016: 248-456-3168-22-17 passing, 55-8-2 rushing

2017: 283-487-3823-35-13 passing, 54-47-1 rushing

Arkansas QB:

2018: 202-370-2307-17-18 passing, 127-223-4 rushing

While there are some questions about the quarterback room, there are very few with the running backs. This is a very talented group. Rakeem Boyd and Devwah Whaley paced the group last season. The offensive line is the bigger question mark than the backs, and that is the area that I think could hold them back. The other issue is the quality of depth, it makes sense that Morris would chop the touches between Boyd, Whaley, and Hayden. Even with the evidence of there being five seasons of 1,000+ rushing yards, the volume is less than I would want from a back that I build my roster around. Boyd should be a fine flex option in most standard-sized-leagues, as I expect him to increase his production from 2018. 

Clemson RB:

2011: 223-1178-11 

2012: 212-1081-8 

2013: 189-1025-5 

2014: 161-769-4 

SMU RB:

2015: 151-632-10 

2016: 202-1036-6 

2017: 182-1075-9 

Arkansas RB:

2018: 123-724-2 

The Morris wide receiver is where I am more likely to gamble within this offense. The WR1 and WR2 have both produced some extraordinary and consistent outputs. The easy thing is just identifying which wide receivers will be drafted into the NFL and then, voila – we know which guys are going for 1K and scoring double-digit-touchdowns. The three wide receivers that I believe will start in 2019 will be Mike Woods, Trey Knox, and Deon Stewart. Woods was the guy I was most willing to bet on several months ago, but he got hurt this spring and it could have stunted his growth as a young player. Knox is a freshman, but he earned rave reviews from the staff this spring. It’s typically an outside WR that is the big producer in this offense, which means it’s not likely to be Stewart. As it currently stands, both Woods and Knox are cheap enough that they could both be drafted late in drafts, and then you just pray that one of them dominates the target share. 

Clemson WR:

2011:83-1225-12, 71-961-5

2012: 82-1405-18, 57-708-3

2013: 101-1464-12, 42-828-7

2014: 57-1030-6, 76-965-8

SMU WR:

2015: 49-862-9 

2016: 76-1246-10 

2017: 114-1236-14, 68-1085-12

Arkansas WR:

2018: 30-499-4

The tight end usage has been very sporadic over the years. I think that it’s explainable as well, “(Predecessor) June (Jones) didn’t have any tight ends on the roster when we got there, so we had to make some tight ends,” Craddock said. “Well, when you ‘make’ a tight end, you don’t want to feature that guy.”

Morris used tight ends extensively when he was the offensive coordinator at Clemson, so it became vital to show Henry that his talent wouldn’t go to waste if he became a Razorback. Craddock said when a tight end would catch a touchdown pass in practice last season, he would send a video of it via Snapchat to Henry.

“I’m serious,” he said. “It was a big deal. We had to really go back and show him, when our offense is what we want it to be, it’s a heavily involved tight end offense.” Morris realized what he had in Cheyenne “CJ” O’Grady during last season and he finished strong. He is a player that I’ve already targeted this off-season and will continue to do so. Beyond him. Hudson Henry, Hunter’s brother is a freshman and will take over in 2020 and should be a valuable dynasty asset. 

Clemson TE:

2011: 49-592-8

2012: 40-480-8

2013: 12-176-2

2014: 14-161-1

SMU TE:

2015: 16-249-4

2016: 10-117-3

2017: 2-30-1

Arkansas TE:

2018: 30-400-6

Auburn Tigers

Old OC: Chip Lindsey (Resigned Dec. 3)
New OC: Kenny Dillingham (Hired Dec. 9)

Gus Malzahn hired a promising young mind in Kenny Dillingham. While both will have an influence on the offense, Malzahn returns to his roots as the play caller. As such, we will look at six years of data in order to frame expectations for the 2019 season.

Auburn QB (2009-2011, 2013-2015):

2009: 218-364-2857-25-9 passing, 46-(-)63-1 rushing

2010: 194-296-3002-31-7 passing, 264-1473-20 rushing

2011: 164-292-2022-17-13 passing, 137-301-4 rushing

2013: 173-285-2422-20-8 passing, 172-1068-12 rushing

2014: 208-332-2984-23-7 passing, 153-798-11 rushing

2015: 179-306-2258-11-12 passing, 77-172-6 rushing

Auburn RB (2009-2011, 2013-2015):

2009: 263-1362-10 (20 catches)

2010: 182-1093-5 (1 catch) 

2011: 242-1242-10 (2 catches)

2013: 317-1816-23 (12 catches)

2014: 303-1608-13 (13 catches)

2015: 237-1016-10 (11 catches)

Auburn WR (2009-2011, 2013-2015):

2009: 60-997-10

2010: 52-963-7

2011: 36-613-5

2013: 42-902-7

2014: 45-730-5

2015: 46-716-3

It’s pretty easy to see which years Auburn had Cam Newton and Nick Marshall at QB and which years they didn’t. The two most likely players to win the job in 2019 are Joey Gatewood and Bo Nix. With Gatewood, I believe the offense would look more like it did with Nick Marshall, and Nix could produce a product more comparable to Cam’s year. Either guy possesses a lot of value. The question beyond that is will any pass catchers be top options? If Gatewood wins, I am less optimistic. While he has grown as a passer since high school, where he threw as accurately as a koala bear on HGH, I’m not optimistic that he’s far enough along to do much through the air against SEC defenses. He’s such a big, strong athlete that his running ability gives him a very high floor. While Bo Nix is just a true freshman, he’s the best QB on Auburn’s roster since Cam was on the plains. He’s not going to run quite as well as Cam, Nick, or Joey, but he can still scoot and he’s an extremely gifted passer. For my money, he’s amongst the three most talented true freshman QBs in college football. It’s a tough league to enter into and be up to snuff as a freshman, but I believe he’s got both the goods and pieces surrounding him to pull it off. If you target one of them in either seasonal or dynasty leagues, I think you should budget for both if you are relying on one of them as a weekly starter. Auburn’s RB is amongst the safest positions to forecast fantasy relevance. All six years with Gus calling plays have resulted in a 1,000-yard rusher and nearly every year features double-digit touchdowns. Unfortunately, this offense doesn’t throw to their backs a ton, and I believe that is squandering their RB1, JaTarvious Whitlow’s, full skill set. Even if they don’t throw him the ball a ton, he’s in line to be an extremely productive player in 2019. DJ Williams is a freshman RB to keep an eye on in dynasty leagues, as he had a nice showing this spring. At WR, Seth Williams is the name to know. Auburn will likely continue to play him in a “Big Slot” role, and there are very few DBs in this league that can handle him. He’s still in need of refinement, but he’s my guess to the be the relevant pass catcher in 2019, especially if Nix wins the job. Auburn has its best collection of pass-catching talent since Gus has been there. That being said, it’s unlikely that more than one player is relevant in 2019. It does bode well for the RB and QB if they can force defenses to defend the entire field, something they haven’t done in recent seasons.

Florida Gators

The most exciting part of Mullen’s offense is his quarterback. Going back to his final season at the Swamp, he led an offense that saw Tim Tebow throw for 30 TD and rush for 12 more. He took over a Mississippi State program that was in a state of despair, and it took him several years to get them going. I don’t think the less than ideal state of the Florida program can even be compared to what he had to deal with in Starkville. 2009-2012 were forgettable years for him at QB. In fact, aside from five performances in that span, four from RBs and one from a WR, we can call those lost years, “Fruit of the Croom.” Dak Prescott arrived on the scene in 2013 and only threw for 10 TDs, but he ran for 134-829-13 in 11 games. 2014 was even better, as he ran for 210-986-14 and threw for nearly 3,500 yards and 27 TDs (13 games). 2015 was more of the same. He threw for 29 TDs, nearly 3,800 yards and ran for 588 yards and 10 TDs (13 games). Nick Fitzgerald ran for nearly 2,500 yards, scored 30 TDs, threw for more than 4,000 yards and 36 TDs in two combined seasons. Once Mullen got to Florida, the QB room was in flux, but he helped get things turned around with Feleipe Franks. He finished with 188-322-2457-24-6 passing and 110-350-7 rushing. While 25 passes per game rarely moves the needle for me in fantasy, he had a solid season, and I think that presents a probable floor for this offense moving forward. Dak showed the most optimistic ceiling. Franks isn’t a guy that is going to win many leagues, but he provides solid depth.

Florida RB:

2005: 130-621-7

2006: 143-699-6

2007: 104-580-6

2008: 84-652-4

Mississippi State RB:

2009: 257-1391-12

2010: 187-981-20

2011: 193-1189-10

2012: 205-1024-8

2013: 137-542-2

2014: 190-1203-11

2015: 92-413-0

2016: 137-720-4

2017: 236-1107-6

Florida RB:

2018: 134-826-7

There are only five 1,000-yard-seasons for his RB1 in the 14-year-sample. Mullen has shown that he will lean heavily on a guy if he’s the clear top option, but prefers to use a couple of backs. I would contend that he’s a poor judge of talent at the skill positions and regularly incorrectly deploys his talent, but that’s a discussion for another day. There are only six seasons that showed requisite rushing volume for me to get excited about a Gator back. That being said, I’m somewhat optimistic about Lamical Perine in his senior season. Part of this is my intuition, because he’s surrounded by talented backs in both Dameon Pierce and Malik Davis. There are 131 carries that are up-for-grabs with Scarlett’s departure, and my guess is that could be split between Perine and Pierce. There seems to be some internal hype building around both players but Perine is my choice for the RB1 and should be a flex option in seasonal leagues. 

I’ve learned my lesson about Dan Mullen-receivers. Don’t take the bait! So many talented players between Jefferson, Grimes, Toney, Cleveland, and Copeland. I’m just not buying fantasy viability for any WR in this system that’s not named Percy Harvin. Back to the deployment gripe I have, he should be using Toney like Harvin, but I won’t hold my breath. I can make a case for several guys being capable of a breakout, but I’m unwilling to trust any right now. I’ll avoid the position in 2019. Kyle Pitts is listed as a WR by most Florida publications but has TE eligibility on most fantasy sites. While that concept generally interests me, along with Pitts’ talent and spring hype, I don’t think I’m at the point where I want to pull the trigger on a Florida pass catcher. I may end up regretting that, and if I’m playing in an extremely deep, boutique league, why not? There is a terrific group of tight ends, but I don’t trust them for fantasy purposes in most formats.

Georgia Bulldogs

Old OC: Jim Chaney (Resigned Dec. 8 to take same role at Tennessee)
New OC: James Coley (Promoted Jan. 11)

From Dawg Nation in April 2019, “I thought that the inconsistency showed up in being able to sustain drives and then explosive plays (against the) defense,” Smart said, recapping last Saturday’s scrimmage. “We gave up a couple of explosive (plays) ….” The best offensive plays, Smart said, were passes to the tailbacks out of the backfield. It’s a trend that seems to be emerging under Coley. “It’s a part of who we are offensively, to have those running backs get those catches in the game out of the backfield is huge,” UGA quarterback Jake Fromm said. “We think that’s a matchup that goes in our favor. The more they catch out of the backfield, the better for our offense.” Tailback D’Andre Swift, not surprisingly, agreed. “(Coley) is getting us as running backs involved more in the pass game,” Swift said. “A lot of exotic stuff on offense that the world will have to look out for this season form the Georgia Bulldogs. ”The base run plays aren’t expected to change much, and Herbstreit sees that as a positive after Coley spent last season beside the departed Jim Chaney as Georgia’s co-offensive coordinator. “I’ve known James for a long time in his years, especially down at Florida State in the ACC at Miami, great guy,” Herbstreit said. “I think the fact that there’s continuity from within always helps in any staff… But I think he’ll put his own spin on things.”

Coley was the OC at Miami from 2013-2015. He was pretty steady in his passing volume: 30, 30, 35 attempts per game and his QBs ran for a combined -354 yards over three seasons. Jake Fromm ran for -27 yards last year and averaged 26 pass attempts per game. Neither of those are ingredients for the types of QBs that I desire in CFF. There is better news for the RBs. As the intro mentioned, the backs are being asked to catch the ball more. That would be prudent. D’Andre Swift is the best receiving back in college football, and he will be a top five receiving back at the next level on the day he enters the NFL. Add in James Cook (Dalvin’s brother) and Brian Herrien, and you have an incredible pass catching stable playing out of the backfield. Interestingly enough, Coley coached both Duke Johnson and Mark Walton at Miami. I consider both of them to be two of the best pass catching backs to come out of college and enter the NFL in recent years. Duke caught 38 balls in 2014 while adding 242-1652-10 on the ground. He was on pace for a comparable season (minus the pass catching) in 2013 before being lost for the season. In 2015, Yearby ran for 205-1002-6 and Walton ran for 130-461-9. The duo caught 45 balls for more than 500 yards. When examining Swift’s 163-1049-10 rushing last year, it’s important to remember that he was playing hurt for much of the season. He had a groin issue that followed him around and nagged him. He’s since recovered and reports from spring in Athens were extremely promising. I anticipate him going well over 200 touches with the possibility of catching 40+ balls being well within reason. He may not need top 10 volume to produce like a top 10 RB. Figuring out the RB2 is important for next year, but more so for 2020 in a dynasty succession plan. Zamir White will likely be brought around slowly, and I anticipate his 2020 could have a far greater impact than his 2019. The WR1 has finished with 62-1162-6, 36-871-10, and 52-695-5. There is no shortage of WR talent in Athens. The three most likely to be relevant are Tyler Simmons, Kearis Jackson, and Demetris Robertson. I’m unwilling to place my bet just yet, but if I had to, I’ll go with Robertson. The TE has been very valuable in Coley’s offenses at Miami, catching 30+ balls in two of three seasons, but the Dawgs are thin at TE after the departures of Nauta and Ford. Charlie Woerner seems the most likely candidate to assume the TE1 role. Reports out of their camp indicate that he could be a significant weapon this fall. 

Kentucky Wildcats

Kentucky managed to hang on to their OC Eddie Gran, when it looked like he may fly south to Athens. I’m going to look at a six-year sample of his offense from both Cincinnati and Kentucky.

There isn’t much to get excited about with quarterbacks. Terry Wilson is the undisputed QB1, and he has tremendous athleticism and running ability, so we can’t count him out entirely, but Gran hasn’t passed the ball much since he left Cincinnati. I’ll buy an increase in production from 2018 to 2019, but he isn’t a guy that I’m going to prioritize.

Cincinnati QB (2013-2015)

2013: 262-395-3302-22-12 passing, 72-137-6 rushing

2014: 233-390-3254-31-13 passing, 63-142-1 rushing

2015: 339-541-4662-28-22 passing, 88-49-4 rushing

Kentucky QB (2016-2018)

2016: 145-265-2037-13-6 passing, 97-327-3 rushing

2017: 189-316-2305-10-6 passing, 103-375-5 rushing

2018: 180-268-1889-11-8 passing, 135-547-4 rushing

The running back numbers have to be looked at in two parts: Cincinnati and Kentucky. If we use Gran’s time at Cincinnati, passing on drafting a RB is an easy choice. If we see the Kentucky pattern continue, then you’ve got a league-winning back who is going to be really inexpensive. There are three backs vying to fill Benny’s shoes: AJ Rose, Kavosiey Smoke, and Chris Rodriguez. All three players bring their own flavors to the meal but, Rose is the most experienced and is my prediction for 2019’s leading rusher. Gran had this to say in the spring, “I’ve done it every way. I’ve been at Auburn where we’ve had two or three (play), Florida State, two or three. So, it’s pretty unique here when you had Benny taking all that load. We’ll see. Right now, A.J. is holding up pretty well, but I like where the other two are coming. I think we’ve got an opportunity to play a couple this year.” I’ve been bullish on AJ Rose for two years, and I’m not stopping now. I’m not prepared to pencil him in as a top 10 CFF RB, but I will be targeting both him and Smoke in drafts this season. Rodriguez is most comparable to Snell in that he is big, strong, runs north-south, and falls forward, but I think Rose and Smoke (great band name) are more skillful and provide more big-play-abilities.

Cincinnati RB (2013-2015)

2013: 132-518-5

2014: 143-618-5

2015: 151-729-8

Kentucky RB (2016-2018)

2016: 186-1091-13

2017: 262-1333-19

2018: 289-1449-16

Kentucky has quietly been putting together a talented wide receiver room. Unfortunately, it’s highly unlikely that more than one guy will have fantasy viability in 2019. That guy will be Lynn Bowden. One of the most gifted high school players I’ve ever watched, Bowden took a big step forward last year and finished with 67-745-5 receiving. All reports out of camp are that he has grown immensely since last season and the expectation is for him to surpass his impressive 2018 season as a sophomore. Bowden will be one of my primary WR targets in both CFF and Devy drafts. I’ll pass on the tight ends.

Cincinnati WR (2013-2015)

2013: 72-939-5

2014: 66-761-4

2015: 90-982-6

Kentucky WR (2016-2018)

2016: 39-585-5

2017: 48-539-2

2018: 67-745-5

LSU Tigers

While LSU’s hire of Joe Brady as passing game coordinator and wide receivers coach didn’t earn them a spot in my coaching changes piece, I think the offense will look different in 2019 than it has in the past. Brady spent the past two seasons on staff with the New Orleans Saints and will look to bring some RPO elements with him to Baton Rouge. Brady recently had this to say in regards to his offensive philosophies, “Everybody wants the ‘let’s push the ball down the field,’ but it wears on defenses when you space them out, when you get the ball out fast, when the d-line’s having to rush and now the ball’s out and they can’t get to the quarterback,” Brady said. He spoke for an hour about the concept, using Drew Brees highlights to explain the ins and outs of how to put the ball in your playmakers’ hands in space. Brady speaks quickly but not in a hurry. “Sharp” is the word everyone who works with him uses, and he has a skill for breaking things down in a way that both respects your intelligence but makes it simple. While he didn’t tell trade secrets, one could still pick apart the principles he believes in. He likes sending all his receivers out, and he wants quick throws that neutralize the pass rush. He believes in taking yards when you can get them and not being afraid to settle for a nice gain instead of always taking shots downfield. One of his favorite expressions time and time again was: “I like checkdowns. Checkdowns lead to first downs. First downs lead to touchdowns.” He also repeated “If they’re gonna give us a gift, take the gift,” in reference to taking free yardage when it’s there and not overthinking it. As he ran through the Saints film, he made sure to consistently joke how Brees makes everything a coach does look smart. The videos showed Brees fitting balls in perfect spots even without that much space. He explained some of the lessons learned from his time in New Orleans, like how Brees always practices by going through all his progressions even if he throws it to the first read. He still just goes through the rest to train his mind and feet for when the first read isn’t open. Brady said one of the most important things he learned from Sean Payton and the Saints was that “It’s not about beating coverages. It’s about beating who you want to beat in the coverage.” -Nola.com

I’m going to attempt to parse Ensminger’s recent history with some of the tweaks that I could see being made with Brady being involved in game planning.

LSU threw the ball 24 times per game in 2017 and then 31 times per game in 2018. Those numbers rank very far below average and just slightly below average nationally. With an emphasis being placed upon quick, easy throws, it’s reasonable to expect that number to slightly rise for the third consecutive season. Drew Brees and the Saints threw it 34 and 33 times per game in 2017 and 2018. That ranked them slightly below average in the NFL. I don’t think Joe Burrow is going to be throwing it 35 times per game in 2019, but we could see an uptick in his passing efficiency, touchdown passes, and rushing volume. He ran for 128-399-7 last year. Some reports state they want him running more, while others state that he needs to bulk up and focus on being passer. LSU is being very cryptic about this offense and I find it hilarious. The data shows that the Saints threw the ball 54% last year, while LSU was at 58%. 

Ensminger used two backs in 2017 and 2018 and managed a huge producer and another good flex option. Using two backs falls in line with what the Saints do, but the kicker is their use of the backs in the passing game. The offensive line has some questions but they have the potential to be a great group. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the candidate for the Alvin Kamara role and a big 2019 season. I believe he carries tremendous value and is the back to own in all formats. Beyond him, there is likely to be another relevant back. Chris Curry is a true power back and John Emery is an incredibly gifted true freshman who will be hard to keep off the field. I’ll let dynasty owners chase after Emery in the early rounds while I grab the starter, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, in the later rounds. 

Like every year in Earth’s History, LSU has a bunch of good receivers. Justin Jefferson returns as the WR1 and is ole’ reliable. He gets up and executes. The bigger talent and threat to usurp his throne is Ja’Marr Chase. There is a chance that one or both of them could be relevant in 2019. Terrace Marshall rounds out the last of the talented trio and there is a mix of vets and newcomers behind him. Justin Jefferson dominated the market share last season on the bayou and the Saints’ Michael Thomas showed that this team’s WR1 can be an extremely valuable fantasy asset. Stephen Sullivan has been moved to TE, and there are some good things being said about him and his potential 2019 role.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Old OC: Luke Getsy (Resigned Jan. 23 to join Green Bay Packers)
New OC: Terry Richardson (RGC/RB), Andrew Breiner (PGC/QB)

Joe Moorhead arrived in Starkville in 2018 with high expectations from CFF owners. He finished the season on the naughty list. His robust history of productive TEs and RBs fell flat. He elected to run his TE masquerading as a QB, Nick Fitzgerald, 18 times per game and burnt their passing attack to the ground along the way. While there is optimism that 2019 will spell something new, there are no guarantees that they have a better passer on their roster. Here are the historical numbers for Joe Mo’s offense:

Fordham RB:

2012: 300-1699-13 (48-313-2 rec)

2013: 307-1561-7 (41-276-2 rec) 

2014: 294-1902-23 (19-121-1 rec)

2015: 251-1705-20 (31-383-5 rec)

Penn State RB:

2016: 272-1496-18 (28-402-4 rec)

2017: 217-1271-18 (54-632-3 rec)

Fordham QB:

2012: Trash

2013: 353-480-4380-35-7, 154-701-9 rushing

2014: 344-528-4536-38-12, 91-161-1 rushing

2015: 229-342-3183-32-10, 158-590-1 rushing

Penn State QB:

2016: 224-387-3614-29-8, 146-365-7 rushing

2017: 284-427-3570-28-10 ,144-491-11 rushing

Fordham WR:

2012: 72-1042-7

2013: 93-1646-14 & 89-1094-14 & 85-1154-5

2014: 89-1247-11 & 78-1202-12

2015: 36-466-5 & 34-463-6 (TE led in receptions this year)

Penn State WR:

2016: 59-982-11

2017: 53-857-9

Fordham TE:

2012: 45-388-0

2013: 66-588-2

2014: 43-386-6

2015: 37-492-7

Penn State TE:

2016: 48-679-5

2017: 57-563-9

Now a recap of the 2018 offense:

Miss State QB:

145-281-1767-16-9, 221-1121-13 rushing

Miss State RB:

117-734-4 (22-176-4)

Miss State WR:

Trash

Miss State TE:

19-256-2

I recap all of this to show the historical precedents for this scheme hosting a relevant CFF option at every position, just about every year. Keytaon Thompson is a very gifted runner at QB, but he has a lot of work to do as a passer. As of mid-May, he was the most likely candidate to be the QB1, but then Tommy Stevens announced his transfer to Starkville and is now my current guess. Stevens has similar limitations, but he’s familiar with Moorhead’s system; and he wouldn’t transfer here if he didn’t think he was going to be the guy. Jalen Mayden is a better passer than both, but he could end up being a transfer casualty, or he could win the job outright! Any QB will be relevant, but the WRs and TEs floors and ceilings may be determined by which guy wins it and how much they progress between now and Labor Day. Stephen Guidry, Osirus Mitchell, Austin Williams, and Devonta Jason are the most like candidates for production at WR while Farrod Green will hope to restore the prestigious TE position. Other than the QB, the only other player that I feel confident about is JR RB Kylin Hill. I pegged him as a potential breakout star last season, and while he did breakout by NFL scouting thresholds, he was still severely underutilized. Hill is the best player on their roster and has a skill set that is comparable to Chase Edmonds and Saquon Barkley who both set records in this offense. If Hill doesn’t have 25 touches per game this season, he was underutilized yet again. I’m betting on him getting more work and being a very valuable CFF RB. 

Missouri Tigers

Derek Dooley was a first-time-playcaller for the Tigers in 2018. As such, we’re gonna look back at last season to help frame what to expect in 2019.

Missouri QB:

2018: 275-437-3498-28-8 passing, 55-175-6 rushing

Missouri RB:

2018: 225-1216-11 & 147-709-7 (26 combined catches)

Missouri WR:

2018: 59-737-5 & 37-828-6

Missouri TE:

2018: 43-466-6

That’s a pretty solid start that represents fantasy relevance at every position. In Drew Lock, they had a pocket passer who was more athletic than his rushing numbers suggest. This season will be very different with Clemson transfer, Kelly Bryant. This was a very telling snippet from an SI article in the spring

“There’s a lot of moments where I check myself, because I’m so used to catching passes from Drew, from him making the perfect read and perfect throws, all the crazy throws he can make,” receiver Johnathon Johnson says. “It’s kind of hard adjusting … but I feel like we’re getting better, and we can learn off each other’s games.” Bryant, even at a glance, is more physically imposing than Lock in the pocket, and he’s always a threat to run. In his last full season at Clemson, he rushed for 665 yards and 11 touchdowns in addition to his 2,802 passing yards. In a recent practice, coaches drew up a play that involved a quarterback rush and reminded defenders not to touch Bryant. As the play unfolded, Rountree couldn’t help but laugh at how unnecessary the reminder was. It’s not that they shouldn’t touch their quarterback, Rountree explains. “They can’t touch Kelly. We ain’t never seen that before.”

I believe that Bryant won’t achieve the same level of success through the air as Lock, but he will do more as a runner. That’s a tradeoff that I’ll take in fantasy football. Speaking of the run game, Larry Rountree is back and should go over 1,000 yards again. Crockett decided to move on, so the RB2 is up for grabs and should be between Tyler Badie and Simi Bakare. Missouri had an excellent OL in 2018 but loses two quality, veteran starters. I still anticipate they will be a good unit in 2019, but there is more guesswork involved this year than last. It would not surprise me at all to see Rountree exceed 20-touches-per-game and prove to be a high-value-asset for fantasy purposes. The wide receivers appear to be a primary trio of Jonathan Nance, Jalen Knox, and Jonathan Johnson. The loss of Emanuel Hall should be softened some, as he missed five games last season. Johnson is the WR1, playing out of the slot, and has the potential to break some Missouri career receiving records. He is the player that is easiest to forecast for production in 2019, but Jalen Knox interests me in dynasty formats. Just a true freshman last season, he had a great spring and has the physical tools to be a great weapon for the Tigers over the next few seasons. Albert “Aqua Man” Okwuegbunam is one of the best TEs in the nation and should once again be the beneficiary of many easy, pop-pass TDs once Missouri gets into the red zone. He and Rountree are the two players that I want most from this team, but Bryant and Johnson could help round out depth for many squads in 2019.

Ole Miss Rebels

Old OC: Phil Longo (Resigned Dec. 11 to take same position at UNC)
New OC: Rich Rodriguez (Hired Dec. 31)

A while back, after Rich Rod was hired as the Ole Miss OC, I told someone that I planned to do a deep dive into his offensive history. It’s more extensive than I ever thought, but I’ve done the leg work, so grab a coffee.

WVU (2001-2007):

His QBs attempted 33, 22, 19, 22, 16, 18, and 20 passes per game. Without the QB run factored in, there is only one year of those seven that can be discussed with potential CFF relevance. The good news is that the QBs were involved in the ground game when they were capable. 54-41-1, 173-666-13, 101-303-4, 169-861-4, 187-1122-8, 202-1428-22, and 246-1662-17 were the rushing numbers for the quarterbacks in his WVU tenure. There are some stunning seasons in there by Pat White. The RBs saw some incredible volume as well. 267-1298-9, 335-1710-17, 282-1380-12, 165-959-10, 205-1128-17, 248-1744-16, and 211-1051-17 were the rushing numbers for the lead back. They averaged 20 catches per season as well. 42-334-3, 40-496-2, 41-1006-10, 52-872-12, 34-536-3, 56-522-8, and 64-733-12 were the WR1s numbers. 

Michigan (2008-2010):

His QBs attempted 28, 27, and 30 passes per game.118-293-3, 187-591-8, and 288-1753-15 were the rushing numbers for the quarterbacks in his Michigan stop. 118-486-3, 96-502-8, and 136-601-5 were the RB1 numbers. It’s worth noting that he used two backs here in addition to the QB and the back with lesser volume had many more TDs than the RB1. 49-443-0, 32-434-3, and 72-935-7 were the WR1s numbers. 

Arizona (2012-2017):

His QBs attempted 41, 30, 40, 36, 26, and 23 passes per game. 134-580-7, 181-949-13, 137-291-2, and 177-1079-10, 205-1129-11, and 222-1870-20 were the rushing numbers.  303-1929-23, 349-1885-19, 236-1375-16, 133-736-8, 74-461-6, and 146-847-5 were the RB1 numbers. 81-1364-11, 51-696-7, 73-1019-9, 56-907-5, 29-521-3, 43-573-6 were the WR1 numbers.

We’ve got a very healthy 16-year sample to digest here. His QB is going to throw it 24 times per game on average, with a minimum of 16 and maximum of 41 and run for an average of 174-914-10 (!), with a minimum of 54-41-1 and maximum of volume 288-1753-15. There are actually three other seasons where he scored more than those 15 rushing touchdowns. Matt Corral is the uncontested starting QB for the Rebs in 2019. He will go on to be an NFL QB after either the 2020 or 2021 season. Before then, he should be one of the most valuable CFF QBs in the country. I anticipate that he’s going to throw more than the 24 times per game historical average, while he is less likely to match or surpass the 900 rushing yard and double-digit TD average. He’s not going to be confused with Pat White as a runner, but he’s the most gifted passer that Rich Rod has ever coached, in my opinion. At RB, we can expect an average of 207-1131-12 on the ground from the RB1. The low water mark is 74-461-6 and the most voluminous year had 335-1710-17. Nine of his sixteen seasons featured a RB with 200+ carries and double-digit touchdowns. The easy choice for their 2019 RB1 is Scottie Phillips. Incoming freshman Jerrion Ealy may give him all that he can handle if he decides to go the Kyler Murray football route and spurn the MLB. Ealy is an intriguing option in dynasty formats if you are willing to invest early (in non-start-ups) and stomach the risk. Kyler Murray and AJ Brown were good payoffs for their owners while Jordyn Adams’ owners still adorn sackcloth and ashes. We are finally arriving at the first position where I’m not totally enamored – wide receiver. Due to the low aerial volume of the scheme, there typically isn’t more than one relevant pass catcher. The WR1 averages 51-712-6, with a low of 29-521-3 and a best of 81-1364-11. My belief is that Elijah Moore will be the number one target. He caught seven of the first eleven passes in the Grove Bowl and he has a next level skill set as a slot WR. The three most likely guys to play on the outside are Braylon Sanders, Miles Battle, and Dontario Drummond. Tylan Knight has been splitting time at RB and in the slot. Moore is the player that I want in both seasonal and dynasty formats, and he’s probably going to be a small bargain in most leagues. I’m disinterested in TEs in this offense. 

South Carolina Gamecocks

Will Muschamp decided to bring his offense out of the dark ages with the hire of Dan Werner to coach quarterbacks and Bryan McClendon to coordinate the offense. They saw a significant jump in production from 2017 to 2018 and will hope that 2019 shows even more progress. McClendon was a first-time-play-caller in 2018 and Werner comes from Ole Miss, where he helped guide some potent offenses with Hugh Freeze. As such, we will take a look at South Carolina last year and a few of Ole Miss’ offenses from the Werner-era. 

South Carolina QB:

2018: 240-388-3171-27-14 passing, 65-78-2 rushing

South Carolina RB:

2018: 123-654-4 (14 catches)

South Carolina WR:

2018: 62-882-11 & 55-846-7 & 45-673-4

South Carolina TE:

2018: 15-181-2

Last year there was relevance from the QB position as well as two WRs. That is consistent with the Ole Miss offenses as well. In 2015, Swag Kelly had 298-458-4042-31-13 passing and  90-646-10 rushing. Those are incredible numbers. He threw the ball to Laquon Treadwell 122 times and he hauled in 83 balls for 1,165 yards, and scored 11 TDs. He generally had two FF relevant WR per yr. His WR2 in Oxford had 39-504-4, 72-608-5, 48-632-5, 38-604-7, and 46-716-6. That’s roughly 141 points in full PPR. That will likely mean a WR70 finish and fantasy relevance. Bryan Edwards surpassed those numbers in 2018 and while he will be their WR1 in 2019, Shi Smith should fill that WR2 role. Looking at what we can expect from Edwards this year, he finished with 55-847-7 last year and is 44-813-7 away from some career receiving records in Columbia. Deebo finished with 62-882-11 last season and Werner’s WR1 at Ole Miss had , 66-979-10, 59-938-6, 39-696-6, 82-1153-11, and 65-926-8. That’s 205 points in full PPR and a likely top 20 overall finish. The top two RBs are Rico Dowdle and AJ Turner, but I don’t have any interest in either player. Leading ball carriers seasonal rush attempt numbers from Ole Miss were 197, 131 (QB), 121 (QB), 142, and 164. The number was 123 at Carolina last season. In ’17, Jake Bentley had 73-85-6, leading USCe in rushing TDs. His rushing numbers fell off a cliff last year with 65-78-2, but Werner’s history of running his QB lead me to believe this number increases. Bentley appears to be a serviceable option at QB against bad defenses and both Bryan Edwards and Shi Smith carry very high and moderate value as WRs. Kiel Pollard is a talented pass catcher, but I’ll avoid the position in 2019.

Tennessee Volunteers

Old OC: Tyson Helton (Resigned Nov. 27 to take HC job at Western Kentucky)
New OC: Jim Chaney (Hired Jan. 8)

The QB in this system is steady yet unspectacular. A pocket passer generally mans the helm and throws for 200 yards per game and less than 2 TDs per game. It’s a position that I would avoid, aside from looking for a backup in deeper leagues. 

The receivers provide a little more excitement. This year it should be a battle between Jauan Jennings and Marquez Callaway. I’ll go with Jennings if forced to choose today. He’s had some rocky periods off the field, but his talent is undeniable. He’s a next level player, perhaps not too dissimilar in many regards to former Vol heel, Preston Williams. 

WR:

2013: 31-437-4

2014: 43-558-6

2015: 91-926-6

2016: 44-633-7

2017: 45-720-7

2018: 44-570-9

The running back under Chaney is a CFF goldmine. Steady and consistent, you aren’t gonna have a guy get more than 20 touches per game, but odds are solid that you’re gonna get 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns. There is both good and bad news for Tennessee in 2019. The offensive line may not be very good, but they have a very good talent in Ty Chandler who should keep the 1,000-yard streak alive. Similar to the way that D’Andre Swift was used, there is a chance that Chandler can catch 30+ balls. Most of Chaney’s RB numbers aren’t very favorable towards them as pass catchers, but when you evaluate the players that he’s featured, the plus receivers have caught 20+ balls, and I think that is the floor for Chandler. Tim Jordan could factor in as well and Eric Gray is a freshman to target in dynasty leagues. I think Chandler is a strong buy this offseason in all formats. 

RB:

2013: 190-1026–4 & 150-900-4 (18 combined catches)

2014: 211-1190-12 & 204-1100-12 (14 combined catches)

2015: 212-1121-11 (14 combined catches)

2016: 224-1130-8 & 152-840-4 (27 combined catches)

2017: 223-1345-15 & 156-1227-16 (13 combined catches)

2018: 163-1049-10 & 159-1018-7 (37 combined catches)

There have been some solid outputs from TEs in Chaney’s offense. The Isaac Nauta dud of 2017 was the only turd of the six-year sample. It would be great to see more touchdowns from the big fellas, but in leagues that have a catch premium for TEs, they are a safe bet. Dominick Wood-Anderson is the TE1. He arrived on Rocky Top last year with high hopes, but he didn’t live up to them as a pass catcher. He’s a player that I will be targeting this offseason.

TE:

2013: 28-409-4

2014: 37-513-2

2015: 24-350-4

2016: 29-361-3

2017: 9-114-2

2018: 30-430-3

Texas A&M Aggies

Jimbo Fisher enters year two and needs to replace his two best offensive skill players. Kellen Mond returns at QB and will look to progress for the third straight season. His 34 passes-per-game last season and his rushing ability make him a viable fantasy option. He’s likely a depth piece in most leagues, but last year he actually outscored Jameis Winston’s final season in 2014. He’s been too expensive for my tastes in drafts I’ve participated in this summer. The real intrigue with this offense remains the RB1. Jashaun Corbin is a speedster that is still learning to play the position, but he will look to secure the seventh consecutive 1,000 yard rushing season from a Fisher RB. Jacob Kibodi appears to be the RB2 and would be a wise selection for owners that use an early draft pick on Corbin. There are some intriguing WR lines from Fisher’s past, but it’s a crowded room that lacks a clear-cut-number-one. I’ll avoid the position in 2019. Tight ends, Nick O’Leary and Jace Sternberger posted legendary seasons in 2014 and 2018, and true freshman Baylor Cupp will hope to follow suit. He’s extremely gifted, and while I don’t want to bank on freshman to start for me, he’s a nice dynasty addition, but probably won’t come cheap, unless it’s a startup. In seasonal formats, he’s a candidate for the most over-drafted player that I’ve seen through a couple months of drafting. Corbin is the player that I don’t want to leave drafts without, while Mond creates solid depth at QB, and Cupp is a tremendous taxi squad stash.

QB:

2014: 305-467-3907-25-18 passing, 57-65-3 rushing

2015: 256-419-3325-22-9 passing, 54-(-)106-0 rushing

2016: 244-421-3433-23-8 passing, 108-196-5 rushing

2017: 202-345-2551-21-13 passing,73-(-)48-0 rushing

2018: 254-442-3284-25-9 passing, 150-468-7 rushing

RB:

2014: 170-1008-8 & 150-689-11

2015: 229-1691-19 & 63-314-5

2016: 288-1765-19 & 61-350-4

2017: 194-1025-7 & 132-735-7

2018: 271-1760-18 & 61-346-1

WR:

2014: 99-1365-7

2015: 59-916-7, 57-798-6, 58-622-3

2016: 56-840-7

2017: 40-604-4, 40-548-10

2018: 45-585-7

TE:

2014: 48-618-6

2015: 14-210-2

2016: 19-227-1

2017: 19-306-3

2018: 48-832-10

Vanderbilt Commodores

Old OC: Andy Ludwig (Resigned Jan. 11 to take Utah job)
New OC: Gerry Gdowski (OC)

Gerry Gdwoski was an internal promotion. He coached the quarterbacks and had a role in the offense, but will now be the play caller. As such, we don’t have much to go on in terms of tendencies. From the Tennessean, “The big thing in this transition for all (of) us offensively was that we didn’t want a whole bunch of big changes,” said Gdowski, who has served in numerous roles on Mason’s staff since 2014. “It really comes down to the nuts and bolts of what we do in communication and terminology. We’ve got four years invested. It’s really Andy’s system… “(Vaughn) can be a special guy. If he can stay healthy and be consistent, the sky is the limit,” Gdowski said. “Now, he is a running back, so there are a lot of things that go into that. There are five guys up front that have to block people. He understands that.”

In addition to Vaughn, Vanderbilt returns wide receiver Kalija Lipscomb and tight end Jared Pinkney, both All-SEC performers. With that trio, Vanderbilt averaged 28.5 points per game, the program’s fourth-highest mark since World War II. Gdowski thinks his most important jobs are choosing a quarterback and getting the ball to those proven playmakers. “A big part of it will be the quarterback spot,” Gdowski said. “But when you have a guy like Ke’Shawn Vaughn, a guy like (Jared) Pinkney, a guy like Kalija (Lipscomb), you’ve got a pretty good place to start from. “It’s not that hard. Get those guys the ball. Figure it out.”

This is worth emphasizing again: “It’s not that hard. Get those guys the ball. Figure it out.”

Those guys are RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, WR Kalijah Lipscomb, and TE Jared Pinkney. They were three of the most productive players at their respective positions in 2018. I expect that will be the same in 2019. While losing an experienced QB like Kyle Shurmur is rarely a good thing, I think that replacing him with an experienced transfer like Riley Neal will make this a rather seamless transition. In three seasons at Ball State, Neal ran for 323-1363-15, so while he may not chuck it round like an air-raid QB, his wheels make him a serviceable backup or spot starter in many CFF formats.