Duke @ Wake (-16.5/69)
Duke 3-4. L 28-31 @ Charlotte – 580-478 (7.9-6.8), W 45-17 NC AT – 433-264 (6.1-3.8), W 30-23 NW – 558-407 (5.7-5.7), W 52-33 Kansas 607-530 (7.5-7.4), L 7-38 @ UNC – 314-456 (5.0-6.5), L 27-31 GT – 489-440 (5.4-6.9), L 0-48 @ UVA – 325-528 (4.0-6.7).
Wake 7-0. W 42-0 ODU – 352-272 (5.0-3.5) , W 41-16 Norfolk – 413-336 (6.9-4.8), W 35-14 FSU – 484-317 (5.4-6.2), W 37-17 @ UVA – 473-506 (6.4-5.9), W 37-34 Ville – 501-522 (6.0-7.5), W 40-37 @ Cuse (OT- 34-34 REG) – 426-514 (6.2-6.0), W 70-56 @ Army – 638-595 (12.3-7.2)
Duke off bye week and were drubbed at UVA the week prior. Dukies average 24 PPG but offense better than scoring indicates. Balanced on offense and have potential to be dual threat at QB. They prefer to lean on Durant at RB and let him win games for them. They would be wise to get Holmberg involved in ground again this week. Game script won’t be favorable for them to lean entirely on ground game, but the Wake rush defense is a real issue, as evidenced last week against the option. Duke allows 34 PPG on defense. Pass defense is the big issue for them. Lost by 31, 4, 48 so far against ACC foes. Cutcliffe has been around the block a time or two, and I think he will likely take a page out of Army’s book and attempt to hold the ball, run it a bunch, and try his best to protect his vulnerable secondary.
Wake coming off a totally insane 70-56 win at Army as three point favorites. They did whatever they pleased through the air against an Army secondary that was badly outmatched and had only been tested once prior to that game this season. They needed every single point as they got badly gashed by the option. Wake had a pick 6 which aided their scoring, but Army got incredibly lucky on some of their other 3rd and 4th down conversions. Wake averages 44 PPG. Balanced offense. The pass offense is really coming alive and they have another delightful matchup this week. WF defense worse than numbers show. Sack the QB very well but rush offense an issue and they are no great shakes against pass either. Give up 28 PPG. Won every ACC game by 21, 20, 3, 3.
This is strength on strength and weakness on weakness. Pace should be blistering and the total reflects that. I had this targeted as an over, but the total came higher than I hoped, so I passed. Wake is probably a bit tender after getting cut to death last week. Wake 2-1 last three in series. Last game in ‘19, 39-27, 59-7, 23-31. No major issues with side or total. Lean over, but slightly concerned that Cutcliffe could slow pace some early in game in hopes to keep it close and protect his defense. Will monitor this game live and at the break. Wake 42-28.
Ville @ NC State (-7/58.5)
Ville 4-3. L 24-43 Ole Miss (N) 355-569 (7.8-4.6), W 30-3 EKU – 441-235 (6.9-4.2), W 42-35 UCF 501-420 (6.6-6.6), W 31-23 @ FSU – 395-453 (4.9-6.0), L 34-37 @ Wake – 522-501 (7.5-6.0), L 33-34 UVA – 513-522 (8.4-6.1), W 28-14 BC – 438-266 (6.8-3.9)
NC State 5-2. W USF 45-0 – 525-271 (8.0-4.2), L @ Miss St 10-24 – 335-316 (4.4-4.9), W Furman 45-7 – 505-196 (7.4-3.7), W 27-21 (14-14 REG) Clemson (OT) – 386-214 (4.0-4.4), W 34-27 La Tech – 418-480 (6.2-6.1), W 33-7 @ BC – 381-291 (6.6-4.2), L 30-31 @ Miami – 421-420 (6.6-5.9)
Louisville coming off 28-14 win over BC. Ville dominated a sloppy game. There were seven turnovers in the game, four for Ville and three for BC. Cunningham had a poor throwing day, going 9-17-107-0-2, but made up for it with 16-133-3 rushing. They ran for 331 yards as a team. They had a 438-266 yardage edge. BC could do nothing, rushing or passing. No real surprise there, Ville’s weakness on defense is their pass defense and BC isn’t a good passing team without Jurkovec. I’m still smarting for not backing Ville in a game where I felt the number was short and BC kept taking money. Anyway, onward. Something that helped Ville’s defense is the game was a more aggressive approach. They got in Grossel’s face and that is something that they do well. They’ve averaged 4 sacks per game in their past 4 games. NC State hasn’t allowed more than 1 sack in any of their past 3 games. If they can keep Leary clean, Ville has some vulnerabilities in pass defense. They’ve allowed 4.6, 6.6, 6.0, and 6.1 YPP and 43, 35, 37, and 34 points against some of the better offenses that they’ve faced, especially ones that can pass. They really haven’t faced many good defenses to date.
NC State coming off a bad loss (30-31) at Miami. It was an incredibly bizarre game. Miami had a great opening drive where their QB couldn’t miss. NC State went three and out twice between that TD drive. They had a nice drive that ended in a FG and it was 7-3 Miami after 1Q. They got Miami into a 4th and 1 on their own side of the 50 and the Canes hit a wheel route to the RB on a busted coverage that resulted in a 53 yards passing TD and 14-3 Canes lead early 2Q. NC State answered with a TD of their own middle of 2Q and it was 14-10 Canes. Both teams exchanged five consecutive punts and NC State got the ball on their own 23 with about 45 seconds to go in the half. Think they were likely to take things to half after a four down gain on first down, NC State dialed up a shot play and Miami was totally unprepared. Emezie ran behind Dunson and gained 46 yards. It was the Manny Diaz experience summarized in one play – nonsense. NC State then hit an open Thomas for a 27 yard TD and stole seven points before the break. Miami got the ball after half and hit a huge 60-yard bomb to Rambo. NC State clamped down in the red zone and Miami was kicking a FG on 4th and 5. An NC State defensive linemen inexplicably jumped offsides and it gave Miami the automatic first down. Instead of a FG and 17-17 tie, Miami led 21-17. I didn’t get a final tally or fully understand the severity of things, but NC State had four starting defenders go down injured in the first 30-40 minutes of the game. One of the injuries was to their defensive captain LB Moore who is their second-leading tackler and most disruptive TFL guy. They felt that one. Both teams exchanged punts again but NC State got great field position. They ran 8 plays for 26 yards and kicked a FG to take go down 20-21 mid 3Q. Miami hit a nice ball to the backup TE on their next drive but then got Miami into another FG situation after they roughed the passer. The defense held up again and Miami settled for 3, 24-20 late 3Q. Miami’s defense had a good stand and then NC State faked a punt on their own 34. Manny Diaz didn’t know faking a punt was a legal play, so naturally, it gained 40 yards and Leary had a rare scramble two plays later and scored a 17-yard rushing TD. 27-24 NC State early 4Q. Miami had a nice, long drive and scored a TD, and took the 31-27 lead. NC State tried a 45 yard FG and missed the kick. However, Miami hit the kicker and they got another shot and he answered. 31-30 final. This game was all about big plays and which team was less knuckleheaded. The Pack recovered a fumble by a guy with no helmet and didn’t get the ball, they allowed very uncharacteristic 3rd down conversions and didn’t turn Miami over. NC State lost a game to a team they shouldn’t and it will likely end their ACCG bid, but they are still in the hunt. Per usual, NC State is a pretty average offense. They tend to score a lot on non-P5’s and will continue to do so against average to below-average conference foes. Their ground game is very finicky, but they have a veteran QB, an OL that keeps him clean, and veteran pass catchers. I believe the injuries they suffered on defense last game really hurt him. There was little reason for Miami to move the ball on them like that after seeing how poor they were against UNC the week prior. Again, I don’t know the full status of their injuries, because that’s like in college football information, but I will generally assume that we see a less than full strength effort from them this week.
NC State will choose to attack Ville via air and should have success. The true strength of the NC State offense is their passing, but they have several good backs and they won’t get away from running it, and they are happy to do so, if they can. We really don’t have much evidence for how NC State will do against a dual-threat QB with Cunningham’s abilities. Miami did have success throwing to their TEs last game, and Ville has a good one in Ford. NC State is 2-1 last three. Last game in ‘19 ended in a 20-34 Ville win. The Pack won 52-10 and 39-25 the two prior to that. NC State never tempted me at their current pricing in this game, but the under had my attention when it was in the low 60’s. However, not knowing how they deal with Cunningham and not knowing their health diagnosis on defense, I’m going to pass with a slight lean to the under. I think the Pack win 30-27, but few outcomes would really surprise me, apart from a large Ville win.
BC @ Cuse (-5/51.5)
BC 4-3. W 51-0 Colgate 525-189 (8.1-3.5) WITH JURK*, W 45-28 over UMass 471-335 (7.7-5.7) MOSTLY GROSSEL, W 28-3 over Temple 221-239 (4.6-4.0) NO JURK TEMPLE BACKUP QB*, W 41-34 (34-34 reg) Missouri (OT) – 450-391 (5.8-6.0) GROSSEL, L 13-19 @ Clemson – 357-438 (4.8-6.4), L 7-33 NC State – 291-381 (4.2-6.6), L 14-28 @ Ville – 266-438 (3.9-6.8)
Cuse 4-4. W 29-9 Ohio (383-346, 6.2-5.5), L 7-17 Rutgers (258-195, 4.2-2.7), W 62-24 Albany (623-135, 9.4-2.5), W 24-21 Liberty – 305-369 (4.5-6.0), L 30-33 @ FSU – 389-378 (6.2-5.5), L 37-40 Wake (OT- 34-34 REG) – 514-426 (6.0-6.2), L 14-17 Clemson – 356-314 (5.3-4.3), W 41-36 @ VT – 550-437 (7.0-6.8)
BC coming off the sloppy loss against Ville 14-28. That came on the heels of the close loss to Clemson and the deceptive blowout loss against NC State. That’s losses by 6, 26, and 14 over the past three games against ACC foes. Their YPP was 4.8, 4.2, and 3.9 while scoring 13, 7, and 14 points. The wheels have really come off without Jurkovec and now that they move into the meat of the schedule. They allowed 19, 33, and 28 in that span, so the average game has been 27-11 in their opponent’s favor. BC has a poor offense and an above-average defense, but they aren’t great in any areas. Their defense gets offenses off the field, but they don’t sack the QB very often. BC got their first taste of a running QB last week and they didn’t pass the test. Cunningham ran for 100+ and three scores. Ville’s backs feasted too. BC only has a bowl game to play for, and they will need this one.
Cuse played in a strange game against VT and ultimately won 41-36. They trailed both at the half and late in the game, but they were clearly the better side. They were able to use Shrader’s mobility to win the game. That is the name of the game for Cuse to have success. If they can run, they can win. After they put on the tape from BC’s matchup against Ville, they will be excited about their game plan’s potential. The area of the game that surprised me was how much offensive success VT enjoyed. Cuse had been able to rely on their defense in recent weeks, but they gave up a lot of explosive plays to VT. The Hokies took a 36-27 lead with under 3:00 to play. Cuse went crazy and ran 13 plays for 115 yards on their final two drives and scored two TDs to win 41-36. The Cuse defense isn’t great, but they are above average. Bad offenses like BC’s haven’t troubled them very much. On the other side, I don’t think BC is likely to slow down their attack.
BC has won the last two in this series, 16-13 and 58-27. Cuse won 42-21 in ‘18. I think the matchups favor Cuse in this game, and they are simply playing better football than BC right now. I never saw a -3 on Cuse, or I would have taken it. Dino Babers said he felt like last week’s comeback victory was a flag-plant moment for his program and it will redefine their future trajectory. I think the total on this one is lined well, but the side is slightly short. Not so much that I’ve gotten involved, but I’m again tempted to fade BC for the third consecutive week. Pace should be average. 28-21 Cuse.
Miami @ Pitt (-10/62)
Miami 3-4. L 13-44 Bama (N-Dallas) – 266-501 (4.3-6.5), W 25-23 App State – 375-326 (4.9-4.5), L 17-38 Michigan State – 440-454 (5.2-6.3), W Central Conn St 69-0 – 739-198 (10.6-3.1), L 28-30 UVA – 372-449 (5.4-5.7), L 42-45 @ UNC – 421-382 (5.3-5.2), W 31-30 NC State 420-421 (5.9-6.6)
Pitt 6-1. W 51-7 Umass – 598-209 (7.0-3.6), L 41-44 WMU – 490-517 (8.4-6.0), W 41-34 @ UT – 397-374 (4.8-5.7), W 77-7 New Hamp – 707-160 (8.6-3.0), W 52-21 @ GT – 580-432 (7.4-6.8), L W 28-7 @ VT Pitt 411-224 (5.1-3.7), W Clemson 27-17 – 464-315 (5.7-5.1)
I’ve already covered the Miami/NC State game, no reason to cover that again. The one thing that I’ve been wrong about for consecutive weeks is that Miami would quit. It seems the mixture of veterans and young talent have rallied and they are playing hard. They aren’t disciplined, nor extremely talented in terms of next-level players, but they haven’t quit. Diaz is surely gone after this year, but I’m not going to doubt their motivation now that they got the win last week and are 3-4. Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke has made some flash throws in each game, even dating back to the spring game where he and Garcia got extended work. The offense has benefited from having Rooster Knighton in at RB. He’s got real juice and he’s an asset in the passing attack. Miami didn’t protect him extraordinarily well last week, and they will have an even tougher test against this Pitt front. Miami has allowed 44, 38, 30, 45, and 30 points to the above-average P5 offenses that they’ve faced. Pitt certainly qualifies in this game. NC State dropped several balls last week, which helped keep their passing numbers more favorable than they should have been. Miami has a great punter and good kicker, but they are amongst the least disciplined programs in the country.
Pitt just beat Clemson 27-17. They were clearly the better team, but Clemson had a bevy of self-inflicted wounds. They dropped passes, had penalties, and somehow managed to throw a Pick-Six on a shovel pass. Things were going so poorly for DJU, that he was replaced for a portion of the second half. Pitt’s offense moved the ball on Clemson better than anyone else this season. That is a credit to Kenny Pickett who was excellent in the game. He made critical plays with his legs and threw for 25-39-302-2-0. Pitt lost two of their most dynamic offensive players for portions of the game. RB Abanikanda left with a possible concussion and will be evaluated this week. In my opinion, he’s clearly their best back, and he matters. Unfortunately, their best WR, Jordan Addison, also left the game with a probable concussion. He matters much more, and it seems like he may not play. Pitt’s defense is very good. They will force you to throw deep to beat them and they are incredibly stingy against rush offenses. Miami won’t be shy about throwing some deep balls in this game, but the question remains about Miami’s ability to hold up against the pass rush for TVD to have enough time to hang in the pocket and deliver accurate throws. My belief is that Miami will hit a few shot plays, but I question their ability to methodically move the ball.
This is a terrible spot for Pitt. The Miami logo will get their attention, but they are undoubtedly going to be feeling themselves after enjoying some extra adult bevvies this week. I believe there are several matchups that favor them: their defensive front against the Miami offensive line and their pass offense against the Miami secondary. I can’t overlook the situation, which I believe is a demerit on Pitt’s ledger. If Pitt were to be less focused than normal or experience a letdown, my guess would be that their offense stalls some, but I can’t say that will deep conviction. The pace in this game should be extraordinarily high, although Miami moved much slower last week than we’ve seen them move earlier this year. Miami has won the last three contests – 19-13, 16-12, and 24-3. Last year, Pitt had ten penalties and they were only 3/19 on 3rd and 4th down conversions with Joey Yellen under center. If Pitt is fully focused and plays their best game, they can blow the doors off of Miami. I doubt we see that happen. Miami needs to hit more explosive plays against an aggressive Pitt scheme and hope that they catch them at the right time. This would be a very NARD DOG game to suffer a bad letdown. No action for me here. Pitt wins 35-24.
VT @ GT (-4/55)
VT 3-4. W 17-10 UNC – 296-354 (4.8-5.6), W 35-14 MTSU – 383 -349 (5.7-4.6), L 21-27 @ WVU 329-373 (4.5-6.2), W 21-10 Richmond -318-237 (5.1-4.0), L 29-32 Notre Dame – 321-401 (4.5-5.8), L 7-28 Pitt – 224-411 (3.7-5.1), L 36-41 Cuse – 437-550 (6.8-7.0)
GT 3-4. L 21-22 NIU – 429-301 (5.5-5.1), W 45-17 Kenny St – 412-272 (7.0-4.3), L 8-14 @ Clem – 309-284 (4.3-4.3), W 45-22 UNC – 394-369 (6.4-5.0), L 21-52 Pitt – 432-580 (6.8-7.4), W 31-27 @ Duke – 440-489 (6.9-5.4), L 40-48 @ UVA – 570-636 (7.3-8.7)
Virginia Tech’s loss to Cuse already detailed. They have now lost their past four to FBS foes. Average score against P5 foes – 22-28. Following the loss to Cuse, chants of “Fire Fuente” could be heard from their home crowd. I think the writing is on the wall at this point. They haven’t quit to this point, but like manyteams that I write about on a weekly basis, they are in a weird spot. They aren’t good at anything on offense, but their run game has to work for them to them to do anything. They played well on offense last week, which was the first time in many weeks that could be said. They have seen a dual threat QB twice this year. The first was ND TrFR QB Buchner, which was a small sample, but not great for them, and the second was last week with Cuse and Shrader, and they gave up 550 yards, 7 YPP, and 41 points. VT doesn’t have a bad defense, but they are weaker against the run than the pass. That is not a great recipe for success against Cuse. The best thing I can say about VT is that they rarely shoot themselves in the foot. They don’t turn the ball over very often and they are the least penalized team in the nation.
GT coming off a 48-40 loss at Virginia. They are 2-3 against P5 foes, the average score of those games: 31-33. The clear strength of the GT team is their rush offense, which is set up and runs through Sims at QB. Mentioned already, but Buchner and Shrader’s success bodes well for them to have success against the Hokies. GT defense isn’t good, but if they have a strength, it’s their rush defense, which is favorable against the Hokies. The Jackets aren’t having the turnover issues that plagued them last year and they don’t commit tons of penalties. One issue they have comes on third downs. They are bottom 25 on offense and defense in third-down conversion rates.
I figured that some models would still like VT in this game, so I wasn’t sure where this number would open. I took GT PICK in the game and it went for an early ride and got as high up to -4. I would likely have passed if it opened this high, but I was interested in them at what I believed was a light number. GT is on track or ahead of schedule on their rebuild, while Virginia Tech is badly behind schedule and likely looking at a fresh start in ‘22. I think that GT is likely the more motivated team. As is the case with any GT game, anything could happen, but I like the situation and the matchup of the dual-threat offense the Jackets deploy, combined with GT’s relative strength on defense with stopping the run. Pace should be average. GT is 2-1 in the last three games. In the most recent game in ‘19, VT won 45-0. GT won 49-28 and 28-22 the two years prior to that. I like GT to win a close game, something along the lines of 30-24.
FSU @ Clemson (-10/46)
FSU 3-4. L 38-41 ND – 442-431 (6.0-6.2), L 17-20 Jacksonville State – 335-350 (4.7-4.5), L 35-14 @ Wake -317-484 (6.2-5.4), L @ Louisville 23-31 – 453-395 (6.0-4.9), W 33-30 Cuse – 378-389 (5.5-6.2), W 35-25 @ UNC – 383-432 (7.1-6.4), W 59-3 UMass – 586-241 (9.8-4.0)
Clemson 4-3. L 3-10 UGA (N – Charlotte) – 180-256 (3.0-4.2), W SC State 49-3 – 504-235 (6.7-3.9), W GT 14-8 – 284-309 (4.4-4.4), L 21-27 (14-14 reg) NC State (OT) – 214-386 (4.4-4.0), W 19-13 BC – 438-357 (6.4-4.8), W 17-14 @ Cuse – 314-356 (4.3-5.3), L 17-27 @ Pitt – 315-464 (5.1-5.7)
FSU finally got a cupcake to eat and they smoked Walt Bell’s Minutemen 59-3. Not much to be gleaned from the game. They did what they were supposed to, and they continue to play improved football. FSU relies on dual-threat QB ability and explosive runs. That will be a tough ask in this game. FSU OL is not good, give up lots of sacks, and should be gobbled up by Clemson DL. FSU hasn’t faced many talented fronts nor defenses this year. They give up 28 PPG but they’ve played some pretty good offenses. FSU rush defense isn’t great on paper but I think they are better via eye test. FSU average score versus P5 foes is 33-28. Clemson faced one dual-threat QB so far at Syracuse, and their defense played very well. They gave a few wonky, big plays, but they are well-built to stop them.
Clemson loss to Pitt already detailed. Clemson OL stinks as does the whole offense. They average 15 PPG. Most teams don’t try to run on Clemson, they prefer to attack via air. Their raw numbers aren’t great there but it’s more due to volume than ineptitude. Clemson’s offense doesn’t have a strength. Dabo has tried to pump sunshine about this offense, team, and DJU, but he finally made more honest comments and said that every job on offense is up for grabs this week (as they should be). The Clemson defense is their saving grace. They haven’t played many good offenses to date. Their average score against P5 foes is 15-20.
This season, FSU lost by 3 (OT), 3 Hail Mary (FCS), 21 Wake, 8 Ville (played well). Clemson hasn’t beat an FBS team by more than 6 this year. On principle, I should have bet FSU at +10 or greater. Make Clemson prove something that they’ve yet to prove. I’m somewhat concerned that their offense is going to have a hard time in this game. On principle, I should have bet the under at 46 or better. Those are my leans in the game, but I haven’t pulled the trigger on anything. I’m not sure what I’m waiting for or what I would need, but I’m probably a bit gunshy after seemingly losing a futures bet on FSU at huge numbers against Clemson over many of the past years. Clemson is 5-0 in the last five contests, including their most recent 45-14 win in ‘19. Their MOV has been 31, 49, 17, 3, and 10. This ain’t your big brother’s Clemson team, so that margin (if any) likely drops significantly than what we’ve seen in recent years. I believe this should be a game with above average pace, but probably not as extreme as some of the other matchups that I’ve already covered in the ACC. I think Clemson wins something like 21-13. I’ll continue to stew on ways that I may get involved with this game.
UVA @ BYU (-2.5/63.5)
UVA 6-2. W 43-0 Bill & Mary 545-183 (8.5-3.5), W 42-14 Illinois – 556-337 (7.6-4.7), L 39-59 @ UNC – 574-699 (7.3-10.3), L 17-37 Wake – 506-473 (5.9-6.4) , W 30-28 @ Miami – 449-372 (5.7-5.4), W 34-33 @ Ville – 522-513 (6.1-8.4), W Duke 48-0 – 528-325 (6.7-4.0), W 48-40 GT- 636-570 (8.7-7.3)
BYU 6-2. W 24-16 @ Zona – 368-426 (5.8-5.1), W 26-17 Utah – 368-340 (4.8-6.7), W 27-17 Arizona State – 361-426 (5.4-6.9), W 35-27 USF – 443-367 (8.9-5.1), W 34-20 @ Utah State – 466-366 (7.1-4.0), L 17-26 Boise State – 413-312 (6.5-4.2), L 24-38 @ Baylor – 409-534 (7.4-7.1), W 21-19 @ Wash St – 385-350 – (5.6-5.8)
UVA off two wins in which they scored 48. They have an excellent offense. Primarily passing attack but rush offense improved of late. UVA OL gives up too many sacks, but that is partly due to how often they pass. BYU doesn’t sack the QB very well. BYU has faced some good individual pass catchers, but none that have the width, breadth, and depth of the circus carnies that the Hoos possess. Defense remains an issue for UVA. They are an equal opportunity group who will give it up via land and air. ‘Baby, you can have whatever you like. I said, you can have whatever you like, yeah.’ Against P5 foes, UVA’s average score is 43-35. Their margins in those games are +28, -20, -20, +1, +48, +8. They are all over the map.
BYU won last game on road in Pullman, 21-19. BYU got into Washington State territory twice in the 2Q but turned it over on downs and missed a 45-yard FG. They relied on the bus Tyler Allgeier who ran for nearly 200 yards on 32 carries. UVA HC Bronco Mendenhall returns to BYU after building their program back up to relevancy. The Broncos are slightly above average, balanced offense. They have an athletic dual-threat QB in Jaren Hall, that I think they underutilize as a runner. They do a nice job tailoring their game plans to their opposition’s strengths and weaknesses, so we can see Hall throw less than 20 times or close to 40, depending on the game script and matchups. Their defense above average, some vulnerability on pass defense but that is because they are attacked more in that area than actual deficiencies. They are a solid, line of scrimmage team that wants to run the football. “I’m old school, Janice”. This will be BYU’s 9th game in a row without a break. UVA had a bye in early October. Against P5’s, BYU’s average score is 24-21.
UVA has scored 30 or more points in each game against P5 foes, except for 17 against Wake where they still had 506 yards at 5.9 YPP. BYU hasn’t allowed any team other than Baylor (38) to score more than 27. Something’s gotta give in this one. I seem to like UVA more than the market most weeks, but I believe that I clearly understand their limitations as well. Those are on defense. Can BYU line up and pound it down their throat with some occasional play-action? I think they will have success, but I trust the UVA offense slightly more, and I’m not sure I agree with BYU being favored. I get it. It’s not egregious, but I think UVA is the only side that I could play. If I could get a +3 or greater, I would be awfully tempted to back the Hoos’ and their hire-wire act. UVA wins 31-30.
Missouri @ Vanderbilt (+16.5/63)
Missouri 3-4. W CMU 34-24 – 468-475 (6.9-5.5), L 28-35 @ UK – 398-511 (5.2-7.3),W SEMO 59-28 – 675-373 (9.4-7.3), L 41-34 @ BC (34-34 Reg – OT) – 391-450 (6.0-5.8), L 24-62 UT – 396-683 (5.4-8.8), W 48-35 N Tex – 474-493 (6.5-6.6), L 14-35 Texas AM – 328-432 (4.5-6.4)
Vandy 2-5. L 3-23 ETSU – 321-314 (4.3-5.3), W 24-21 @ Col State – 342-445 (4.3-6.3), L 23-41 Stanford – 398-442 (4.7-7.5), L 0-62 UGA – 77-532 (1.7-7.0), W 30-28 UConn – 439-523 (6.0-6.5), L 0-42 @ UF – 287-479 (3.6-7.7), L 20-21 @ USCe – 312-434 (5.2-6.5), L 6-45 Miss State – 155-522 (3.7-6.1)
Missouri off bye week. Their offense will go as far as Badie will take them. If they face a poor rush defense then they will likely have a day. If they face a good rush offense then they are toast. Favorable matchup in this game on both of those fronts.
Vandy doesn’t do much well. They were competitive in a loss to South Carolina (who isn’t?) but then they were thrashed by Mike Leach who spent most of the second half workshopping Halloween candy pairings and planning a trip to Europe to sample their smorgasbord of gummies treats. Vandy was moving the ball okay in the first half, but they had so little of the football that it didn’t matter. They ran outta juice late and were blown out. Unfortunately, this is their eighth game in a row, and they have a ninth coming next week.
I can’t recommend Missouri in good conscience, but if they were gonna hang a number on someone and not get gashed on the ground, I suppose this would be the spot. I don’t really care about this game. I tried to tempt fate and take Vandy last week and they laid an egg. Missouri is 2-1 last three, winning 41-0 last year. I know Missouri gives up 24+ to everyone, but I just can’t bring myself to get involved here in any capacity. 40-24 Missouruh.
Kentucky @ Miss State (+1/47)
UK 6-1. W 45-10 ULM – 564-87 (8.4-1.4), W 35-28 Missouri – 511-398 (7.3-5.2), W 28-23 UTC – 356-339 (5.7-5.4), W 16-10 @ USCe – 332-216 (5.0-4.2), W 20-13 UF – 224-382 (4.8-5.4), W 42-21 LSU – 475-408 (7.7-5.6), L 13-30 @ UGA – 243-416 (3.5-8.9)
Miss St 4-3. W 35-34 La Tech – 435-369 (6.6-6.0), W 24-10 NC State – 316-335 (4.9-4.4), L 29-31 @ Memphis – 469-246 (5.7-4.6), L 25-28 LSU – 486-343 (5.5-6.4), W 26-22 @ aTm – 438-297 (5.8-5.7), L 9-49 Bama – 299-543 (4.0-7.9), W 45-6 Miss State – 522-155 (6.1-3.7)
Miss St 4-3. W 35-34 La Tech – 435-369 (6.6-6.0), W 24-10 NC State – 316-335 (4.9-4.4), L 29-31 @ Memphis – 469-246 (5.7-4.6), L 25-28 LSU – 486-343 (5.5-6.4), W 26-22 @ aTm – 438-297 (5.8-5.7), L 9-49 Bama – 299-543 (4.0-7.9), W 45-6 Miss State – 522-155 (6.1-3.7)
Cats off bye week after the critical loss in Athens. They were outmatched and while they emptied the playbook clip, they simply aren’t built to do too much damage to a defense of that caliber. UK wants to pound ball and hit some PA/shots to Wan’Dale. Offense too vanilla to move it on good defenses. No major holes on defense. Shown some vulnerabilities last few weeks, maybe a month, but the numbers are still excellent. Haven’t faced any teams comparable to Miss St, so hard to say how they hold up, but I don’t think Miss State is a major threat to move the ball on offense against the better defenses in the league. Miss State’s rush defense and unique scheme should hold up well. My weekly reminder that I do actually like State’s defense. I’ve now satisfied my contractual obligation.
I just covered it, but Miss State thumped Vandy last week. Rogers was fine, despite the AC joint sprain, and he effectively operated the dink and dunk air raid. I guess the aTm is offense is most comparable to Kentucky’s and they were okay in that game. Not great, but they did enough to win as TD+ dogs.
UK average score versus SEC foe is 25-20. Miss St average score versus SEC foe is 26-26. Miss State had a bye week on October 9th and Kentucky had one last week. Imagine the bye week helped Kentucky more as they have an extra week to heal up in the trenches and implement a solidified zone defense to combat the air raid. Both teams are going to move slowly and want to control the possession, but they will accomplish that by far different means. UK is 2-1 last three in series, beating Miss State 24-2 last year. It was a nuts game. Kentucky averaged 3 YPP and scored 24 points on 157 total yards of offense! Miss State threw six picks. They gained 295 yards at 3.5 YPP. I took Under 49.5 in this game. It’s currently at 47, which is starting to cut it close for me, but I still think it gets there. I personally would have needed 48 to play, but I’m a bit rigid with my thresholds. 23-20 Cats.
Ole Miss @ Auburn (-2.5/66)
OM 6-1. 43-24 Ville (N-Atlanta) – 569-355 (7.8-4.6), W 54-17 Austin Peay – 630-374 (7.7-4.6), W 61-21 Tulane – 707-305 (7.5-5.4), L 21-42 @ Bama – 291-451 (4.6-5.9), W 52-51 Arkansas – 676-611 (8.7-7.3), W 31-26 @ UT – 510-467 (5.0-5.9), W 31-17 – 470-326 (6.4-4.8)
Aub 5-2. W 60-10 Akron – 613-188 (10.4-3.0), W 62-0 Alabama St – 538-176 (9.3-3.0), L 20-28 @ Penn State – 367-396 (4.6-6.0), W 34-24 Georgia State – 419-384 (5.4-5.4), W 24-19 @ LSU – 453-358 (5.9-5.0), L 10-34 UGA – 318-432 (4.4-6.2), W 38-23 @ Arkansas – 427-460 (7.0-5.2)
Ole Miss put to rest any concerns about Matt Corral’s health and availability in a 31-17 win over LSU in the Magnolia Bowl. They moved the ball well on offense and their defense had one of their good games. They were the first team in several weeks to stop a surging LSU offense. TDP ran for 297 yards the week prior against UF, but they held him to 53 yards on 17 attempts. FR Corey Kiner added 10-49, but they played solid defense across the board. It seems their defense will be a week-to-week roller coaster. Against P5 foes, Ole Miss’ average score is 32-32. They are a fast-paced, balanced, explosive offense that is led by the best QB in the country. They are actually a run first team, but they are capable of moving the ball in a variety of capacities. Defensively, they’ve got poor raw numbers and they’ve been gashed at times, but their opponent adjusted yards and adjusted YPP are favorable. I’m not sure if that jives with what my eyes see, but they are capable of playing good defense. They may not always be consistent and they are willing to engage in a shootout, but they are extremely improved from last year, and they have surprised me at times. If they can stop the run with three down linemen, they have enough DBs on the field to frustrate their opponents in an attempt to limit big plays.
Auburn is coming off a bye week. That came at a good time. Auburn’s offense has balance and is playing really well behind Nix. They’ve gotten magic from him, but I’m not sure the reliability of that plan. Auburn defense is solid, KJJ and Arky should have scored more on them but they couldn’t score across midfield. Auburn’s average score against P5 foes is 23-26. Auburn’s rush defense is superior to their pass defense, but they don’t have any glaring holes.
This is going to be a fast-paced game. Both teams will likely run more than they pass, so the clock should stay moving, but there won’t be much huddling and they will both operate with a sense of urgency. If anyone was going to break tendencies, it would likely be Auburn in an attempt to wear down the Rebs’ defense and keep Corral off the field for an extra possession or two. I don’t think that necessarily happens, but there were only 142 snaps last week in LSU/OM compared to 180 in OM/UT and 163 in OM/Arky. I attempted to bet Under 72.5 at open, but it got smashed right away and I had to settle with under 68. No Ole Miss under is ever a feel good play. It wasn’t last week, but it came in with ease, by nearly 30 points. This could be another 52-51 game and I wouldn’t be upset (well, maybe) nor surprised. Auburn has won the last five in a row. It was 35-28 last year — 20-14, 31-16, 44-23, and 40-29 in the four years prior. Ole Miss won 27-19 in Auburn in 2015, but you have to go back to 2003 for the second to last time Ole Miss won on the road in this series. I hope Ole Miss wins for my Corral/Heisman purposes, but I think they drop a close game here 33-31.
Georgia v Florida (+14/51)
UGA 7-0. 10-3 Clem (N-Charlotte), 256-180 (4.2-3.0), W 56-7 UAB 539-174 (9.0-3.3), W 40-13 USCe – 491-310 (7.4-4.9), W 62-0 @ Vandy – 532-77 (seventy-seven) (7.0-1.7), W 37-0 Arky – 345-162 (5.1-3.6), W 34-10 @ Aub – 432-318 (6.2-4.4), W 30-13 UK – 416-243 (8.9-3.5)
UF 4-3. 35-14 FAU – 553-353 (6.8-5.0), W USF 42-20 – 666-283 (9.7-4.0), L 29-31 Bama – 439-331 (6.2-5.3), W Tennessee 38-14 – 505-423 (7.4-6.2), L 13-20 @ UK – 382-224 (5.4-4.8), W 42-0 Vandy – 479-287 (7.6-3.6), L 42-49 @ LSU – 488-454 (6.5-6.6)
UGA off a bye week, as is their custom before the Cocktail Party. UGA offense humming and defense is elite. Haven’t allowed more than 13 points this season. This will be the best offense they have faced. They’ve been fortunate to play a bunch of patsies on offense to this point, so the numbers they’ve put up, while absolutely elite, should be put in context with their poor offensive opponent schedule. The UGA staff will be thrilled to put on the UF/LSU film and see TDP rush for nearly 300 yards on Grantham’s defense. That will open up the entire playbook for them to hit some play-action over the top, especially as they continue to get healthier at their pass catching positions.
UF off bye week and embarrassing loss at LSU, 49-42. UF allowed 31 PPG against the three good teams/offenses they have faced. 31 to Bama, 14 to UT (423 yards at 6.2 YPP*), and 49 to LSU. Rush defense may be a real issue for UF after seeing them gashed by LSU, right on heels of shutting down UK. UK the only good defense that UF has played, maybe Bama could be included from a talent standpoint. The Gators averaged 21 points, and that will likely be less against UGA. Mullen saves plays every year for this matchup, and I’m sure he will have a few wrinkles that surprise Georgia and create some explosive plays for them. Both Jones and AR15 are the types of quarterbacks that can extend plays and create issues out of structure for a Kirby Smart defense. Neither guy has been consistent with their play, but philosophically, these are the guys that are most likely to create some heartburn for a defense that prefers things missionary style in the dark. KJJ could have been, but Pittman saw his fate written on the wall after about 8 minutes of game clock expired, and he chose to get ready for the next week. That won’t be the case for Mullen whose seat is warming up (next year). Mullen will probably start Jones, but I imagine we will see both guys, and probably AR15 for the majority of the second stanza. I prefer AR15 as both a bettor and college football fan, but Mullen gonna Mullen.
The last five games have gone like this (Georgia – Florida)
28-44
24-17
36-17
42-7
10-24
That’s an average score of 28-22 in favor of the Dawgs. I did the unthinkable and decided to bet an over on a Georgia game. The total opened 46.5 and that was a surefire over bet for me. However, I got stuck with an over 49. In the spirit of full disclosure, I would have passed at that number, but such is life when trying to take Vegas openers and not having full control of the sticks. I still think I have the right side of the bet, but it’s cutting it closer than I would like. I have no issue with UGA being listed as a sizable favorite. I think the UF offense will present more problems than UK, but the UF defense won’t present nearly as many for the UGA offense as the Cats. Dawgs 34-17.
UNC @ Notre Dame (-3.5/63)
UNC 4-3. L 10-17 @ VT – 354-296 (5.6-4.8), W Ga St 59-17 – 607-271 (8.5-3.6), W UVA 59-39 – 699-574 (10.3-7.3), L 22-45 @ GT – 369-394 (5.0-6.4), W 38-7 Duke – 456-314 (6.5-5.0), L 25-35 FSU – 432-383 (6.4-7.1), W 45-42 Miami – 382-421 (5.2-5.3)
ND 7-1. W 41-38 @ FSU – 431-442 (6.2-6.0). W 32-29 Toledo – 449-353 (6.0-5.6), W Purdue 27-13 343-348 (5.2-4.4), W 41-13 Wisky (N- Chicago) – 242-314 (3.5-4.6), L 13-24 Cincinnati – 341-386 (4.6-6.2), W 32-29 @ VT – 401-321 (5.8-4.5), W 31-16 USC – 383-424 (5.4-6.1)
UNC off of a bye week. UNC is a hard team to figure out. They can be an explosive, balanced offense. They give up lots of sacks but now Howell is being trusted and deployed as a runner. Slightly below average defense that hasn’t played to their potential consistently enough. They are an average team getting to QB and generating sacks.
I didn’t see any of the USC/ND game, but it appears that they played yet another (shocked face) weird game. USC had more yards and higher YPP, but lost by 15. ND offense is weird and they don’t run well with traditional RB game, but they are throwing well enough and they score more each game than their offense really deserves. Pass defense more of a concern than rush defense for ND, but they are thrown on more than they are tried to run on, where they gave up explosive plays to start the year. They will be without future Top-10 Pick DB Kyle Hamilton this week and that is a big blow. He’s one of very few guys in college football that could contain Josh Downs.
ND averages 31 ppg on offense and 22 ppg on defense against common-ish foes. UNC averages 32 ppg off and 36 ppg on defense against common-ish foes. The Irish have won the last three, 31-17 in ‘20. They won 33-10 and 50-43 in ‘17 and ‘14. I have no idea what happens in this game. I’m not even gonna give a score. No clue.
Extra Plays:
Penn State +18.5
Maryland/Indiana Under 50.5
Texas/Baylor Over 62
(I also played ISU/WVU Under 49, Ohio State/Penn State Under 63.5, Colorado/Oregon Under 51.5, and Boise State/Colorado State Under 54, but those have all moved and I’m not sure I could fully recommend them at current.)
