Clemson @ Syracuse (+14/45 -FRI) Clemson 3-2. L 3-10 UGA (N – Charlotte) – 180-256 (3.0-4.2), W SC State 49-3 – 504-235 (6.7-3.9), W GT 14-8 – 284-309 (4.4-4.4), L 21-27 (14-14 reg) NC State (OT) – 214-386 (4.4-4.0), W 19-13 BC – 438-357 (6.4-4.8). Clemson off a bye week following three games in a row where the outcome hung in the balance on the final possession, all three one-score margins. In terms of offensive production against FBS foes, the 438 yards at 6.4 YPP against BC two weeks ago was their best game to date. Trying to isolate what changed in that game, it was the ground game. The running backs finally got going, and they decided to run DJU as well. Ideally, this is the way forward for this team. I’m not saying that it can’t be fixed, but the passing attack has been downright awful through five games. Just using regulation scores against P5 foes, Clemson’s average final has been 13-11. Based on their defensive quality, I think their numbers can hold somewhat true top early form on that side of the ball, and surely things will have to uptick for the offense. Clemson’s defense doesn’t have any holes. They haven’t seen many big-time offenses yet, but they’ve done all that has been asked of them, plus more. Cuse 3-3. W 29-9 Ohio (383-346, 6.2-5.5), L 7-17 Rutgers (258-195, 4.2-2.7), W 62-24 Albany (623-135, 9.4-2.5), W 24-21 Liberty – 305-369 (4.5-6.0), L 30-33 @ FSU – 389-378 (6.2-5.5), L 37-40 Wake (OT- 34-34 REG) – 514-426 (6.0-6.2). Syracuse keeps things interesting for its fans. Their four games against P5 foes have been decided by a total of 19 points. They just lost but covered against Wake in an OT loss. Their offensive plan changed in week three when they played Albany. Shrader started to get the majority of snaps for them at QB and they haven’t looked back. They’ve been in all three of their games against peers following that change. They want to run the ball incessantly with Shrader and Tucker. This will be their toughest test to date and for the rest of the season. We don’t have much evidence of how Clemson will handle this style of offense. Georgia Tech would be the best comp, but they went with Yates in their game against them and Sims would have been the most apples-to-apples. GT managed 298 yards at 4.4 YPP but only scored 8 points. Clemson has won this game for the past three years. 47-21, 41-6, and 27-23. Cuse upset them at home in ‘17 in a 27-24 win. Eric SWAMP KICKER Dungey was the QB in that game, and with Darth SHRADER in at QB, that’s the style of offense they are running again. Dungey was the QB in ‘18 when they lost by 4. Since he’s left, Clemson resumed blowing them out. Cuse’s defense isn’t great this year, but they aren’t costing Cuse any games and should generally be considered an asset for the team. Clemson hasn’t done anything this season that leads me to believe they are going to pick their number against the Orange. When I saw Cuse open as 11 point dogs last week against Wake, I resigned my fate that I would be forced to back Cuse in this game. I tried to take Cuse +17 right at open but settled for +16 as I wasn’t fast enough at the draw. This isn’t a feel-good game. I keep subconsciously thinking that “this will be the week” that Clemson figures it out on offense. Couple that with Cuse has the type of offense that if things don’t go well, they could go really bad in a hurry. That said, Clemson has scored 3, 14, 14, and 19 points in regulation against P5 foes. It’s probably not gonna take a Herculean effort for Cuse to cover a number in which three of Clemson’s first four peers would have covered WITHOUT SCORING A SINGLE POINT. If things go right for Clemson here and they figure things out, I tip my cap. No hard feelings or regret from my end. Gonna be a good bit of pace for a game with a mid 40’s total, but I get the total. 27-16 Clemson.
Miami @ UNC (-7/62.5) Miami 2-3. L 13-44 Bama (N-Dallas) – 266-501 (4.3-6.5), W 25-23 App State – 375-326 (4.9-4.5), L 17-38 Michigan State – 440-454 (5.2-6.3), W Central Conn St 69-0 – 739-198 (10.6-3.1), L 28-30 UVA – 372-449 (5.4-5.7). Miami is off a bye week but had UVA last time out and lost what ended up being a close football game. King was out for the contest as was one of his backups, Jake Garcia. As such, Tyler Van Dyke got the start. He will be the QB1 again this week as both King and Garcia just underwent various season-ending surgeries. TVD wasn’t bad in his first career start, but he wasn’t good either. He completed roughly 50% of his passes and was sacked four times. Miami finished with 372 yards. 162 of them came on four plays. Explosives are a big part if football, but this was a bad defense they faced and they didn’t do much to impress me on a down-to-down basis. I don’t have many positive things to say about their offense. They don’t have a good line and they don’t do anything particularly well on offense. Their defense probably isn’t as poor as the raw numbers indicate, but they still can’t tackle, lack discipline, and they haven’t done much to slow any of the P5 offenses they’ve faced. UNC 3-3. L 17-10 @ VT – 354-296 (5.6-4.8), W Ga St 59-17 – 607-271 (8.5-3.6), W UVA 59-39 – 699-574 (10.3-7.3), L 22-45 @ GT – 369-394 (5.0-6.4), W 38-7 Duke – 456-314 (6.5-5.0), L 25-35 FSU – 432-383 (6.4-7.1). UNC off 25-35 loss to FSU as 17 point home favorites. UNC had absolutely no remedy or answer for the Noles QB run game. Howell threw a pick in the end zone that cost the Heels points and FSU came back and hit another explosive misdirected pass play before halftime and took a 21-10 lead. Per usual, the defense had no answer for Josh Downs. The field was wet from rain and UNC seemed to struggle to find their footing on defense which resulted in some bigger plays. Moreso than any impact from that, their secondary was just really bad in terms of missing their assignments. Rarely did they have everyone doing their jobs on the same play and against an offense like FSU’s and that resulted in giving up too many chunk plays to overcome. UNC’s offense was good in the game. They just had too many breakdowns on defense. This series is 2-1 in favor of Miami over the last 3. UNC won 62-26 last year. The Heels had a 778-314 (10.4-5.3) yardage edges in the game. Carter and Williams ran for a combined 544 yards LOL. Miami is having internal issues. This is likely a lame-duck staff and I imagine their fate will officially be sealed after this game. They had a pretty large fight breakout at practice last week that led to a player’s only meeting. It’s just a rumor, but I’ve heard from several folks connected to the UM football program that they had as many as two dozen players skip practice last week unexcused. Miami is not a team that has responded well after losses in recent years. They haven’t played well after bye weeks either. Now, they are without their QB and they are overmatched in every phase of this game. UNC playing like Jekyl and Hyde so far kept this line depressed. I tried to take UNC -7 at open but someone knocked this down to -5 and for once I benefited from being bested on the quick draw at circa open. I also took more of the Heels at -6 and I expect this line to end up closing near 10. I will go with the Heels 40-21.
Pitt @ VT (+5/57) Pitt 4-1. W 51-7 Umass – 598-209 (7.0-3.6), L 41-44 WMU – 490-517 (8.4-6.0), W 41-34 @ UT – 397-374 (4.8-5.7), W 77-7 New Hamp – 707-160 (8.6-3.0), W 52-21 @ GT – 580-432 (7.4-6.8). Pitt of a bye week, but the most recent game was a blowout win at GT. The offense still humming for Pitt. Really only way to harm the Pitt defense is via explosive plays. Third road game for Pitt, winning by 7 as a small favorite at Tennessee and winning by 31 as a short favorite at GT. VT 3-2. W 17-10 UNC – 296-354 (4.8-5.6), W 35-14 MTSU – 383 -349 (5.7-4.6), L 21-27 @ WVU 329-373 (4.5-6.2), W 21-10 Richmond -318-237 (5.1-4.0), L 29-32 Notre Dame – 321-401 (4.5-5.8). VT with a hard-fought loss last week to Notre Dame. I was surprised Coan got the start for Irish. He looked awful in 1Q. VT took an early 7-0 lead. VT should have gone up 14-0 early 2Q but had to settle for an FG after they failed to get a yard on a first and goal from 1 or 2. ND gave the keys to TrFR Buchner once they saw Coan was cooked. ND went up 14-13 at HT. Here were the 1H splits with Coan and Buchner:
Coan: 3 drives, 13 plays, 17 yards, 0 points
Buchner: 3 drives, 19 plays, 161 yards, 14 points
The Hokies stud DB Waller caught Buchner at end of 3Q – Buchner made a terrible read and Waller had a pick 6 to give Hokies 22-21 lead. Buchner made another FR mistake and Hokies picked him off again mid 4Q. Burmeister was clearly hurting with a hand and shoulder injury but he made a great run late in the game to score a TD. Coan came back in for ND and he led a TD drive and improbable 2PT to tie things at 29-29 with under 3 to play. Irish kicked FG to win 32-29. VT lost backup QB for a year after he was injured replacing Burmeister late 3Q from his injury.
Pitt is the better football in every meaningful metric. VT hasn’t had 400 yards of offense in a game this season. They’ve scored 17, 21, and 29 points against P5 foes and allowed 10, 27, 32 – so they’ve played things about even – (22-23 avg score) while Pitt has averaged a 47-28 win in their P5 contests. Pitt’s offense should just be too much for VT to hang with. The vulnerability of the Pitt defense is defending great athletes and a vertical passing attack. That is precisely what VT doesn’t do well. This game has gone back and forth in terms of winners in recent years, 47-14 Pitt, 28-0 VT, 52-22 Pitt. I took Pitt a couple of times in the lookahead market at PICK, at -110 and -115. Backing the NARD DOG is not my favorite Saturday activity, but I thought there was a value and I was right. Not sure I would be in a big rush to lay current, but I couldn’t consider VT at any price this reasonably gets to. I’ll go 35-24 NARDY.
Vandy @ USCe (-18.5/51) Vandy 2-4. L 3-23 ETSU – 321-314 (4.3-5.3), W 24-21 @ Col State – 342-445 (4.3-6.3), L 23-41 Stanford – 398-442 (4.7-7.5), L 0-62 UGA – 77-532 (1.7-7.0), W 30-28 UConn – 439-523 (6.0-6.5), L 0-42 @ UF – 287-479 (3.6-7.7). Vandy continues to find a scoring output that is commensurate with the sum of their offensive work. That’s often the sign of a bad football team, which is what we have here. Vandy ranks sixth-worst nationally in defensive YPP. Florida led 21-0 at halftime, but it really could/should have been 21-13. Vandy missed 3 FGs in this game and had a TD catch overturned. Vandy was 8-20 on third down. They aren’t showing any signs of life on defense, but the offense is starting to show a bit the past couple of weeks. Florida had a really vanilla offensive gameplan and preferred to work on the passing attack, which resulted in a career day for Emory Jones. SC 3-3. W EIU 46-0 – 439-109 (5.9-2.5), W ECU 20-17 – 323-263 (5.1-4.2), L UGA 40-13 – 491-310 (7.4-4.9), L UK 10-16 – 216-332 (4.2-5.0), W 23-14 Troy – 357-303 (5.9-4.4), L 20-45 @ UT – 370-472 (4.9-6.6). South Carolina got whooped in Knoxville this weekend. USCe got down 14-0 early and then ran a trick play which resulted in a UT INT in the end zone when it should have been 14-7. UT was really balanced. Playcalling was excellent and they jumped up 21-0 in 1Q. But wait, there was more. Doty muffed a snap, Vols recovered, and it was 28-0 end 1Q. 38-7 at the half. SC was a bit unlucky to lose as bad as they did, but UT was the better team. UT went with Dark mode unis and lemme tell ya, they were slick. I expected more from Doty in this game, but the game script kinda went squirrelly for them and got them away from what they really wanted to run. This will be the first game of the season, and the second to last game of the season as well, where SC is gonna be able to name their number from a scoring standpoint. Do you want a 40 point game against a conference foe? You better do it here or against Missouri, otherwise, it ain’t happening. SC has beat Vandy 12 in a row: 41-7, 24-7, 37-14 L3. I took the Over 50.5 at open on this game. Admittedly, I prob pushed my edge a little too much. I don’t think this is a game that is likely going to FLY over or be an easy one, but I think it can get there. My gut tells me that under is more likely to take more money than over, but if I could get this thing knocked up a bit, I may consider trying to thread the needle on a middle. 38-14 Gamecocks.
NC State @ BC (+3/52) NC State 4-1. W USF 45-0 – 525-271 (8.0-4.2), L @ Miss St 10-24 – 335-316 (4.4-4.9), W Furman 45-7 – 505-196 (7.4-3.7), W 27-21 (14-14 REG) Clemson (OT) – 386-214 (4.0-4.4), W 34-27 La Tech – 418-480 (6.2-6.1). State off a bye week. Kinda got lost in the shuffle but they had a real tester with La Tech the week before. I mentioned it a couple of weeks ago, but not sure any team plays to their opponent’s level like La Tech. Nearly beat two top-25 P5 foes and then almost lost to an FCS team after giving up a zillion yards. I’ll be concise with who I think NC State is. They are an experienced, balanced offense that is above average. They are an experienced, aggressive defense, that is very good with the potential to be great. The aggressive style can lead to getting burned, but it can also keep you in the game against any team in the country. I like this team. BC 4-1. W 51-0 Colgate 525-189 (8.1-3.5) WITH JURK*, W 45-28 over UMass 471-335 (7.7-5.7) MOSTLY GROSSEL, W 28-3 over Temple 221-239 (4.6-4.0) NO JURK TEMPLE BACKUP QB*, W 41-34 (34-34 reg) Missouri (OT) – 450-391 (5.8-6.0) GROSSEL, L 13-19 @ Clemson – 357-438 (4.8-6.4). BC is off a bye week and game where they nearly upset Clemson. They had a snap issue very late in the game as they were in a position to win it at the death. I still remain unimpressed with Grossel at QB. He is not a good passer, but he’s a slicker runner than I first thought. That didn’t manifest against Clemson as he finished with 6 carries for -26 yards. He hit a couple of explosive passes which helped overall. I think BC is a bit of fools gold right now. They’ve benefited from playing a pretty terrible schedule. It’s the main reason why I took their RSW over. Now that Jurc is OFY, it may not get there. I believe there is a big gap between those two and I think NC State’s defense is comparable to Clemson’s, which held BC to 4.8 YPP and 13 points. I think BC’s defense is just okay. They only allow 21 PPG, but this ain’t a murderer’s row of offensive juggernauts they’ve chopped down. NC State shouldn’t be considered a juggernaut on offense either, but they are definitely one of, if not the best offense BC will have faced. I think the pace of this game should be below average to average. These two didn’t play last year but it has been 45-24 BC (’19), 28-23 NC State, 17-14 NC State over the past three. I took Under 52.5 and also NC State -2.5. I think these two teams are in different classes within the ACC and they aren’t being priced as such. I’ll go NC State 28-20.
Duke @ Virginia (-11/69) Duke 3-3. L 28-31 @ Charlotte – 580-478 (7.9-6.8), W 45-17 NC AT – 433-264 (6.1-3.8), W 30-23 NW – 558-407 (5.7-5.7), W 52-33 Kansas 607-530 (7.5-7.4), L 7-38 @ UNC – 314-456 (5.0-6.5), L 27-31 GT – 489-440 (5.4-6.9). Duke off B2B losses. A pretty entertaining game against GT. Durant broke the program record after carrying the ball 43 times. He’s had 149 carries through 6 games this season. After this game against UVA, he will surpass Duke’s RB1 from the past decade-plus in terms of the number of carries, and he will have done it seven games compared to a dozen or more for every other back. We’ve literally never seen Cut lean on a back like this, but Durant demands the ball. They tried to sub for him several times last game and he sent them back to the sideline. Duke missed two field goals and was SOD inside the GT RZ. They turned Sims over twice, but he hit some explosive plays and showed why you gotta the bad with the good with him because his good is a joy to behold. I ended up passing on the over last week due to weather and I can’t say this with certainty, but I think it likely was the reason it stayed under by a whisker, so I’m pleased with my discipline. Duke is averaging about 29 PPG and over 500 yards of offense. Much of that is due to Durant breaking off huge plays and also the volume of snaps they get off each week. Defensively, they have one of, if not the worst pass defense in the P5. They aren’t bad against the run, it’s just easier for teams to carve them up with big plays through the air. UVA 3-2. W 43-0 Bill & Mary 545-183 (8.5-3.5), W 42-14 Illinois – 556-337 (7.6-4.7), L 39-59 @ UNC – 574-699 (7.3-10.3), L 17-37 Wake – 506-473 (5.9-6.4) , W 30-28 @ Miami – 449-372 (5.7-5.4), W 34-33 @ Ville – 522-513 (6.1-8.4). UVA with another game that came down to the wire. They managed to hold on to beat Miami a couple of weeks ago and stormed back to beat Ville last week. I didn’t watch that game, but I had Ville -2.5 and already started spending the money when they went up 30-13 in the 4Q. Ville ML was -5000 or higher on live odds at end of 3Q. It appears the same thing happened in this one as what Satterfield did against FSU and that is turtle up and goes into prevent offense and prevent defense when both of those are terrible plans. It nearly cost them against FSU but this time he (and I) had to pay the piper for no good reason at all. Ville averaged pretty much a first down every offensive snap before Satterfield parked the bus. They still averaged 8.4 YPP. UVA was unlucky to only have 13 points in the 1H but Armstrong played really poorly in the 3Q before a heroic finish in the 4Q including multiple fourth-down conversions and the game-winning TD. Ville missed an FG as time expired that would have won them the game. I think this game pretty much perfectly epitomized these teams. UVA has been fortunate to have two absolute gamers at QB in Twerkins and Red Lightning over the past few years. They never say die and this offense is creative and unabashed in doing what it takes to light up the scoreboard. UVA still can’t run the ball, but they are getting a little better as the season has progressed, and they are abhorrent in all phases of defense. UVA has won six straight in this series: 38-20, 48-14, 28-14 the past three. This game should have a lot of tempo and there are matchups all over the field that favor the offense. UVA, in particular, should absolutely decimate this Duke secondary. Circa opened this total 66.5 and I tried to pop the over but it got bet up 3 points in seconds so I elected to pass and I had a sense that I could get a little buy back if I was patient, and if it got bet up, so be it, it wasn’t a terrible number. All of the matchups favor points, pace will be there, but the total doesn’t leave much margin, so it’s a pass or very small over nibble. 42-31 Hoos.
aTm @ Missouri (+8.5/60.5) aTm 4-2. W Kent State 41-10 – 595-336 (7.8-4.5), W @ Col 10-7 – 288-260 (4.2-4.1), W New Mex 34-0 (6.4-2.1), L 10-20 Arky (N-Dallas) 272-443 (4.6-6.5), L 22-26 Miss State – 297-438 (5.7-5.8), W 41-38 Bama – 379-522 (6.5-6.4). Ags off the huge home upset of Bama. They outcoached and out-executed the Tide in the contest. Their offensive line is generally a huge liability, but they played their best game of the season, especially adjusted relative to competition level. They got just enough out of the ground game on offense and Calzada played the game of his life at QB. He’d been nothing short of abysmal prior to this game, but he stood in the pocket, with plenty of time, and consistently fired balls into his talented pass catchers. Bama DBs continue to struggle and either give up a penalty with a DPI/hold or they give up the first down. I believe the strength of the aTm team is their defense, but they really haven’t played all that well over the past three weeks. Bama struggled in the red zone and the entire staff for Bama had bad games. Missouri 3-3. W CMU 34-24 – 468-475 (6.9-5.5), L 28-35 @ UK – 398-511 (5.2-7.3),W SEMO 59-28 – 675-373 (9.4-7.3), L 41-34 @ BC (34-34 Reg – OT) – 391-450 (6.0-5.8), L 24-62 UT – 396-683 (5.4-8.8), W 48-35 N Tex – 474-493 (6.5-6.6). Missouri beat North Texas 48-35 last week. This game was unique because it featured the two worst run defenses I’ve ever witnessed over the past calendar year. Missouri’s offense is playing well enough. I say it every week, but they lack legit SEC skill talent. They need to address that immediately this off-season through recurring and the portal. Their entire offense lives and breathes as RB Tyler Badie does. There have been some tremendous RB performances through the first half of this CFB season, but Badie takes a back seat to no one in terms of what he’s been able to do as a runner and receiver. Missouri’s defense is terrible. The run defense in particular is a total trainwreck. That is not going to end well for them in this game if both Spiller and Achane have rare running lanes. They will eat you up and make you pay on any run where they have space, it’s just been very rare when they’ve had lanes, but they surely will in this game. It’s a probable hangover game for aTm, but I can’t help but lean heavily towards them on this contest. The matchups are all in their favor. I’ve got an overlean in this game, but part of me feels hesitant to go over on a Jimbo Fisher game with his methodical pace and philosophy to preemptively shut things down. The last meeting was in 2014 with Mizz winning 34-27. If I could get a 59 or better on the total, I’d at least make a small bet on the over and if I could get a juiced 7 or better on aTm, I would be willing to lay it as well for a smaller bet. Ags win 38-27.
Alabama @ Miss St (+17.5/57.5) Bama 5-1. W Miami 44-13 – 501-266 (6.5-4.3), W Mercer 48-14 – 424-216 (6.5-4.0), W @ Florida 31-29 – 331-439 (5.3-6.2), W 63-13 USM – 606-213 (10.3-3.7), W 42-21 Ole Miss – 451-291 (5.9-4.6), L 38-41 @ aTm – 522-379 (6.4-6.5) Already touched on Bama last week. Went from a well-coached, well-executed game against Ole Miss to the polar opposite last week. Bama continues to be erratic in terms of effort and execution levels, but we have yet to see four straight quarters in one game of good football.
Miss St 3-2. W 35-34 La Tech – 435-369 (6.6-6.0), W 24-10 NC State – 316-335 (4.9-4.4), L 29-31 @ Memphis – 469-246 (5.7-4.6), L 25-28 LSU – 486-343 (5.5-6.4), W 26-22 @ aTm – 438-297 (5.8-5.7). Miss St did what Bama failed to do and that’s a win in College Station. Had a bye last week which came at a good time. We know who Miss St is, dink and dunk air raid offense with above-average defense. I yap about it all the time, but I really do like their defense. My guess is they are going to do something to what Ole Miss did against Bama and force Bama to be consistent and convert long drives into touchdowns against them. They prob feel pretty confident after watching the film of Ole Miss defenders having great looks at Young in the backfield a bunch and then aTm actually finishing the job and sacking him four times. This actually seems a bit early in the year for these two to meet. If memory serves this is typically an early-mid November game. Anyway, I don’t have any interest in the game. Bama’s secondary is not good. They are forced to hold or pass interfere far too often. These are actually two of the most penalized teams in the country in this game. Bama has won 13 in a row in this series. 41-0, 38-7, 24-0 the last three. Hasn’t been a good stretch for the Cowbell offense! If anything, I would have an under lean in this game, but I don’t plan to bet this and haven’t thought about the game too much. Just to give the perspective from one Bama fan, I don’t really care too much about this game and don’t feel excited about it. 35-17 Bama.
UK @ UGA UK 6-0. W 45-10 ULM – 564-87 (8.4-1.4), W 35-28 Missouri – 511-398 (7.3-5.2), W 28-23 UTC – 356-339 (5.7-5.4), W 16-10 @ USCe – 332-216 (5.0-4.2), W 20-13 UF – 224-382 (4.8-5.4), W 42-21 LSU – 475-408 (7.7-5.6) Great game by UK in the blowout win over LSU. Liam Coen has had his fair share of ups and downs as a play-caller this year, but he was in his bag on Saturday. He called a splendid game and showed what this Cats’ offense is actually capable of. Levis managed the game well, hit his guys that were schemed open and the Cats ground game was punishing as C-ROD and Smoke both went over 100 on the deck. Not to mention, Levis was finally incorporated as a runner as he should be and he added 11-75-2. The primary concern in this game for UK was their rush defense. They’ve shown some warning signs on rush defense this year but seeing TDP go for 22-147-2 the week before you see UGA is a bit spooky. This wasn’t a case of one huge run skewing the stats, he was consistently knocking out 8-10ish yard runs with a long of 30 mixed in. Overall, the raw and adjusted numbers for the UK defense remain really solid. The ground game remains the heartbeat of the offense and they rely on explosive passing plays that are set up by the ground game and individual brilliance by Wan’Dale. UGA 6-0. 10-3 Clem (N-Charlotte), 256-180 (4.2-3.0), W 56-7 UAB 539-174 (9.0-3.3), W 40-13 USCe – 491-310 (7.4-4.9), W 62-0 @ Vandy – 532-77 (seventy-seven) (7.0-1.7), W 37-0 Arky – 345-162 (5.1-3.6), W 34-10 @ Aub – 432-318 (6.2-4.4) UGA rolled over Auburn last weekend. The game’s margin was larger than it should have been, but Auburn’s luck they enjoyed at LSU the week prior ran out against a better football team in Athens. Georgia got a few big pass plays that resulted in scores and they were stubborn enough with the run that they managed to get 200 yards on 50 carries. This isn’t a very explosive UGA rush offense. They are really solid in making positive plays and first downs, but they don’t possess much explosiveness with their backs. Fortunately, they are getting big plays in the passing attack, even in their limited volume. A feller by name of Ladd McConkey had a 60 yard TD and the TE’s each had a catch that totaled 58 yards. That’s half of their daily passing yardage on three passes, which is how they’ve been making their living. Georgia’s pass offense is similar to UK’s in that they rely on big plays. The Dawgs don’t run the ball as well as the Cats do, but they are scoring more points and their defense is far superior to UK’s. This is a pretty good matchup for UGA, but the line is quite absurd, in my opinion. I took UK +24.5 in the futures market knowing that I was going to have at least half or more of the posted total in my pocket to start the game. Philosophically, I’m all about that. It’s just a rare occurrence. Typically, you are taking a team like New Mexico against San Diego State when an opportunity like this presents itself. Very rarely are you getting an undefeated, 6-0 team ranked in the top 15 in this type of scenario. UGA has won 11 in a row in this series, but the last three haven’t come super easy. 14-3, 21-0, and 34-17. I’ll take any of those outcomes in this one! I generally trust Stoops not to get blown out. Here are their margins of defeat over past three seasons: 6, 17, 17, 8, 15, 17, 21, 4, 15, 1, 10, 11, 60, 24. Again, I’ll take any one of those besides the beating by Bama! Georgia very well may cover this number, but Stoops has managed to do a whole lot more with a whole lot fewer teams in recent years and I’m unwilling to cede that this UGA team is some offensive behemoth with Stetson Bennett at QB throwing to freshmen TEs and a white guy named Laddimir. Here’s my cover probability chart, based on how many points UK scores:
0 – 3 unlikely but possible
6-10 likely cover
13+ cash it
30-10 Dawgs.
Florida @ LSU (+10.5/59) UF 4-2. 35-14 FAU – 553-353 (6.8-5.0), W USF 42-20 – 666-283 (9.7-4.0), L 29-31 Bama – 439-331 (6.2-5.3), W Tennessee 38-14 – 505-423 (7.4-6.2), L 13-20 @ UK – 382-224 (5.4-4.8), W 42-0 Vandy – 479-287 (7.6-3.6). Florida washed the bad taste out of their mouth after losing to UK on road by dominating Vandy 42-0. Not much to say about the game, shouldn’t have been a shutout, but it was a thorough beating and a good game for Emory Jones to gain passing confidence. AR15 appears to be outta the picture at this point, and perhaps that has been a psychological boon for EJ? The UF offense is playing really well, but depends on the ground game and passing follows as a result. Their defense has been excellent. I’ve struggled to discern the defensive quality via the eye test, but I’ve finally come around and I think my eyes match the metrics and this is a talented defense that has performed well. They’ve held 5 of their 6 foes under 355 yards of offense and they allow 17 ppg while scoring 33. LSU 3-3. L 27-38 @ UCLA – 379-470 (5.3-7.5), W 37-7 McNeese – 306-142 (4.2-2.3), W 49-21 CMU – 484-284 (7.7-4.1), W 28-25 @ Miss St – 343-486 (6.4-5.5), L 19-24 Auburn – 358-453 (5.0-5.9), L 21-42 @ UK – 408-475 (5.6-7.7). LSU will officially be a lame-duck program once Florida beats them in this game. They weren’t good against Kentucky last week and managed to lose to Auburn at home for the first time this millenia. You’ve got off-field stuff going on, you’ve got a poor on-field product, poor hires made by Coach O, and a team that is dealing with a ton of critical injuries. They are down an R1 pick at corner, WR, one of their best pass rushers, key OL, and another DB, maybe I missed someone else too? Now that Boutte is out, I’m not sure they have anyone that can be relied upon to be the focal point of this offense. They may look to some of the talented true freshmen, but that’s rarely a viable strategy. They’ve got an FR “TE” Bech that has been good, but he’s really just a WR with a TE tag. They finally got the ground game going last week, but they still rank as a bottom 5-10 rush offense in the country. I’m sure they will try to get the run game going here again because they don’t wanna ask Johnson to throw 50 times behind a beat-up line against these types of athletes. UK sacked him a bunch and had nearly double-digit TFL in the game. LSU has won the last two in this series 37-34 and 42-28. UF won 27-19 three years ago. There is no love lost in this rivalry and it’s the definition of big boy football. Unfortunately, LSU isn’t so big this year. They are becoming a team that manages many firsts for this program, and a few of them are positives. I took Under 59.5 in this game, but I’m honestly not sure how much I like it. It’s probably a bigger gamble than I thought on Sunday. I’ve really been kicking myself for staring at UF -3.5/-4 last week in the futures market in this game and not pulling the trigger. Wish I had that one back! My concern with the under is that LSU is not going to be able to hold up under the UF onslaught. They were decimated on the ground last week and worse things could be coming their way here. It’s probably gonna be a close one, in terms of the total, with UF likely getting a big road win and burying Coach O along the way. 35-20 Gators.
Ole Miss @ Tennessee (+3/80.5) OM 4-1. 43-24 Ville (N-Atlanta) – 569-355 (7.8-4.6), W 54-17 Austin Peay – 630-374 (7.7-4.6), W 61-21 Tulane – 707-305 (7.5-5.4), L 21-42 @ Bama – 291-451 (4.6-5.9), W 52-51 Arkansas – 676-611 (8.7-7.3). Ole Miss responded to the Bama loss with an instant classic against the Hogs. The game was off the rails. Nearly 1,300 yards of offense, 61 first downs, 163 snaps, 103 points, the game decided by a failed 2XP. Fantastic theatre, terrible scenario for an under bet. Just when I was still feeling optimistic about the Ole Miss defense, that game happens, and now.. Who knows? I do know my heart skips a beat every time I see a CFB total open in the ’80s. There’s a primal part of me that longs to immediately bet the under. I almost did at under 85.5, and while I prob would have some nice CLV, that sucker could go squirrelly in a second. Gonna be plenty of pace. UT 4-2. W 38-6 BGSU – 476-219 (5.4-3.6), L 41-34 Pitt – 374-397 (5.7-4.8), W Tenn Tech 56-0 – 417-179 (5.3-2.8), L 14-38 @ UF – 423-505 (6.2-7.4), W 62-24 @ Missouri – 683-396 (8.8-5.4), W 45-20 USCe – 472-370 (6.6-4.9). UT had some inflated scoring against USCe, but the fact of the matter is they’ve scored 62 and 45 the past two against SEC foes. There are some things that the Vols can do with their offense that caused Ole Miss lotta trouble last week with KJJ and the Hogs. I trust this Ole Miss team and QB more than UT at this juncture, but the one area I’m having a hard time looking past is the advantage of the UT rush offense against the OM rush defense. An argument could be made that matchup advantage is significant enough for the Vols that they shouldn’t be the underdog. This is going to be a really fun football game. I’ve secretly enjoyed portions of the SEC evolving into the Big 12. Last matchup was a 34-3 win for Ole Miss in ‘14. I’m gonna bet anything currently listed on the side or total. 41-40 Ole Miss.
Auburn @ Arkansas (-3.5/53.5) Aub 4-2. W 60-10 Akron – 613-188 (10.4-3.0), W 62-0 Alabama St – 538-176 (9.3-3.0), L 20-28 @ Penn State – 367-396 (4.6-6.0), W 34-24 Georgia State – 419-384 (5.4-5.4), W 24-19 @ LSU – 453-358 (5.9-5.0), L 10-34 UGA – 318-432 (4.4-6.2). Already touched on Auburn. The defense was decent against UGA. Few big plays and a bad missed tackle that resulted in a TD when should been zero points or FG, but not a terrible day at the office, especially as they lost on their best secondary players, Smoke Monday, early in-game. Ground game couldn’t do much for Auburn and Nix had a few moments of Manziel brilliance, but not enough against a defense that just has too many dudes and too much discipline for his chicanery. Auburn clearly lacks a full cabinet of SEC WRs and surely lacks an alpha, and that is going to hurt them when facing NFL secondary players. Hogs 4-2. W Rice 38-17 – 373-308 (5.7-4.2), W Texas 40-21 – 471-256 (7.1-4.0) , W Ga So 45-10 – 633-233 (8.7-3.7), W Texas AM 20-10 (N- Dallas) – 443-272 (6.5-4.6), L 0-37 @ UGA – 162-345 (3.6-5.1), L 51-52 @ Ole Miss – 676-611 (7.3-8.7). My big question last week was how would the Hogs respond following their humiliation in Athens? They responded like a Sam Pittman molded team, they got off the mat and fought. It was a gutsy effort and another heartbreaking outcome, although this time for opposite reasons. They decided to open the offense up for the first time all season and it went well. KJJ got loose, going for 400+ via land and air while scoring 4 TDs. They got TrFR RB Rocket Sanders loose and he went for 139 on the ground to go with Smith’s 85. It was a beautiful offensive effort and one we haven’t seen from the Hogs so far. To be honest, this was more of what I expected coming into the year, but they were so conservative for the majority of the first month-plus. I don’t know what their plan will be moving forward. We will learn more this week. With a win against Auburn, they will lock up their bowl bid next week against Arkansas Pine Bluff. Auburn has won five in a row in this series. 30-28, 51-10, 34-3. I think the playing field is very much level now between these two, and it simply hasn’t been over the past five years. Auburn did not deal with inside zone and RPOs with a mobile QB against Georgia State. They are going to see the grown-up version of that in this game, and while I generally like their rush defense, their LB play has not been consistent and I think Briles will have some action drawn up to create more conflict for that group. I’ve got a lean to the Hogs here, but the price is a bit too rich for me. The total seems about right to me. Hogs 30-24.
Extras:
App State/ULL Under 58
AFA/Boise State Over 51
Army +14
Arizona State/Utah Over 50.5
