UNC @ Pitt (THURS -6.5/74)
UNC 5-4. L 10-17 @ VT – 354-296 (5.6-4.8), W Ga St 59-17 – 607-271 (8.5-3.6), W UVA 59-39 – 699-574 (10.3-7.3), L 22-45 @ GT – 369-394 (5.0-6.4), W 38-7 Duke – 456-314 (6.5-5.0), L 25-35 FSU – 432-383 (6.4-7.1), W 45-42 Miami – 382-421 (5.2-5.3), L 34-44 @ Notre Dame – 564-523 (7.7-7.7), W 58-55 Wake – 546-615 (7.0-6.8)
Pitt 7-2. W 51-7 Umass – 598-209 (7.0-3.6), L 41-44 WMU – 490-517 (8.4-6.0), W 41-34 @ UT – 397-374 (4.8-5.7), W 77-7 New Hamp – 707-160 (8.6-3.0), W 52-21 @ GT – 580-432 (7.4-6.8), L W 28-7 @ VT Pitt 411-224 (5.1-3.7), W Clemson 27-17 – 464-315 (5.7-5.1), L 34-38 Miami – 597-490 (7.4-6.9), W Duke 54-29 – 636-384 (7.4-4.4)
UNC coming off of a wild 58-55 shootout win over Wake Forest. The Heels trailed by as many as 18 in that game, but still pulled out the win. That game was reminiscent of last year’s game against Wake where they trailed by 21 and mounted a comeback win. UNC lost their top LB after a targeting call, but Wake lost some bodies in the secondary as well. Wake had three empty possessions and the Heels rode their ground game behind Howell and Chandler for the “upset” win.
Pitt, too, played in a weird game. Theirs wasn’t as dramatic as UNC’s, but it featured plenty of strange happenings. Duke opened the game with a massive 15-play drive that resulted in a Mateo Durant fumble at the goal line. Pitt recovered and answered with a nice 76 yard drive and took the 7-0 lead. Duke answered with a FG. On three consecutive drives, there was a Pitt fumble that resulted in Duke getting possession and then turning it over on downs at the Pitt 1 yard line, then Duke getting a safety, and Duke scoring a TD on the next drive. NARD DOG was in heaven as he got to add field goals of 24, 34, and 41 all in the first half. Pitt led 30-19 at the break, and Duke lost their starting QB with a minute to play in the first half. Duke managed 161 yards in the second half on 40 plays (4.0 YPP). They gained 229 yards on 50 plays in the first half (4.6 YPP). As expected, the pac was blistering, with 174 plays being run and 92 of them running plays. That’s hard to do.
Pitt is in the driver’s seat for an ACCG bid. For me, this game comes down to two matchups. UNC’s strength is their rush offense. Howell posted another 100 yard rushing game last week and Chandler went over 200. Pitt’s rush defense remains one of the best in the country. If Pitt can neutralize the ground attack and force Howell to throw to a pretty below average WR group (save for Downs, who I believe is one of the best WRs in CFB) then they will like their chances. Theoretically, UNC is equipped to hit some of the big shot passing plays that I talk about each week in terms of Pitt’s kryptonite. The second big matchup is the Pitt passing attack against the Heels pass defense. This should be a large edge for Pitt. The Heels will get their bowl eligibility with a win here, but they don’t really have larger aspirations. They aren’t out of the Coastal race yet and this is a huge primetime Thursday night game, so I suspect they will be plenty motivated. UNC gives up 36 PPG to P5 foes, and they’ve allowed 35, 42, 44, 55 in their last four. Pitt averages nearly 40 PPG against P5 foes, so it’s probable that they eclipse that number in this game. Pitt’s defense is far better than UNC’s and that should be the difference in the game. I suspect that we will see a lot of big plays in a fast paced game, but Pitt is the better football team. UNC is 2-1 the last three, and the margin of victory has been 6 (OT-’19), 3, and 3. I have a small bet on Pitt -5 from the futures market and I would have a slight over lean as well. My handicap supported a larger but, well… NARD DOG. 44-35 NARDY
UConn @ Clemson (-40.5/50)
Clemson 6-3. L 3-10 UGA (N – Charlotte) – 180-256 (3.0-4.2), W SC State 49-3 – 504-235 (6.7-3.9), W GT 14-8 – 284-309 (4.4-4.4), L 21-27 (14-14 reg) NC State (OT) – 214-386 (4.4-4.0), W 19-13 BC – 438-357 (6.4-4.8), W 17-14 @ Cuse – 314-356 (4.3-5.3), L 17-27 @ Pitt – 315-464 (5.1-5.7), W 30-20 FSU – 377-241 (5.1-4.3), W 30-24 @ Ville – 345-397 (5.1-5.7)
UConn is 1-8. They are coming off a bye week, but lost 44-13 against MTSU where the Blue Raiders got to empty their bench and play backups. They have played two decent teams this year and lost 45-0 to Fresno State and 49-0 to Purdue.
Clemson got a second consecutive road win and cover, last week against Louisville. I didn’t see any of the game, but they appear to be a bit fortunate to get the six-point win. Clemson lost DJU in the game for a spell with a mild PCL sprain. He returned, leading the Tigers to a fourth quarter comeback victory. I watched his post-game interview and he shrugged off the injury, calling it a “little boo-boo”. They had two of their backs get dinged up as well. I’ll get right to it. I’ve played the largest favorite that I can ever recall taking in the past 15 years of doing this. I took Clemson -38 at open. I’ll be vulnerable here, it feels disgusting. Every few minutes I start vacillating on my decision and debating getting off of it. I’m in uncharted territory and I don’t have me sea legs about me! That said, 45 and 49 point losses in the only two games that UConn has been tested is hard to look past. I will probably feel like a massive dolt if they don’t get the money for me, but I suspected we would see a number in the low-to-mid 40’s. Am I in trouble due to biases about the Clemson of yesteryear? Maybe. Probably. UConn is very unlikely to score in this game and Clemson should find a couple of scores, directly or indirectly, from their defense and special teams. We are at the point in the season where Clemson can play some of the talented, green 4 and 5 star freshmen, and I believe they will run their offense a bit longer than they normally would, considering that they’ve given the boosters and fans very little to enjoy this season. Clemson has a talented backup QB in TAISUN PHOMMACHANH, whose brother is actually a QB for UConn, and I think he is a real candidate to break off some huge runs against a maligned UConn defense that should be badly worn down in the second half after their offense does nothing. His brother has appeared to be one of UConn’s lone bright spots this year, but he suffered a knee injury and all reports that I’ve consumed indicate that he won’t be ready for this game. 48-0 Clemson.
Duke @ VT (-11.5/48.5)
Duke 3-6. L 28-31 @ Charlotte – 580-478 (7.9-6.8), W 45-17 NC AT – 433-264 (6.1-3.8), W 30-23 NW – 558-407 (5.7-5.7), W 52-33 Kansas 607-530 (7.5-7.4), L 7-38 @ UNC – 314-456 (5.0-6.5), L 27-31 GT – 489-440 (5.4-6.9), L 0-48 @ UVA – 325-528 (4.0-6.7), L 7-45 @ Wake – 315-677 (5.1-8.2), 597-490 (7.4-6.9), L @ Pitt 29-54 – 384-636- (4.4-7.4)
VT 4-5. W 17-10 UNC – 296-354 (4.8-5.6), W 35-14 MTSU – 383 -349 (5.7-4.6), L 21-27 @ WVU 329-373 (4.5-6.2), W 21-10 Richmond -318-237 (5.1-4.0), L 29-32 Notre Dame – 321-401 (4.5-5.8), L 7-28 Pitt – 224-411 (3.7-5.1), L 36-41 Cuse – 437-550 (6.8-7.0), W 26-17 @ GT – 491-366 (6.3-6.5), L 3-17 @ BC 235-346 (4.6-5.2)
I already touched on Duke’s game with Pitt, but now the question centers around the availability of QB Gunnar Holmberg. His injury appeared to be either ribs or collarbone related. Not ideal for a QB. They have moderately capable backups, I think. I suspect there will be a drop off, especially against a good pass defense, but I don’t have a great feel for how significantly they will be impacted.
Virginia Tech lost 17-3 at Boston College last Friday. It was both a Red Bandana game for BC, and they got back their previously injured QB, Phil Jukovec. In watching some of the game, it appeared clear that Jurkovec wasn’t at 100%. He wasn’t playing scared, he just didn’t show off the NFL arm that we are accustomed to seeing. The ball was floating on him and he was imprecise. BC had two of their best passing plays that came on a red zone interception that turned into a VT fumble and a score for BC shortly thereafter. The other was a batted ball on a poor pass that BC still caught and extended the drive, where I believe they ended up scoring. VT lost QB Braxton Burmeister in the game, and his backup, Knox Kadum, was brutal. In fairness, BB didn’t look like he was going to offer much more than his backup, but that’s a critical loss for a VT offense that had played well the past couple of weeks. As of my writing this, his status is unknown. He’d been hurt earlier this year, and his playstyle sorta lends itself to increased injury risk. They were also without starting WR Tre Turner and they lost their starting center during the game as well. Kadum was 1-6 passing the first half against one of the ACC’s best pass defenses. In the BC game, VT tried to go with five down linemen to handle the BC rushing attack. They had mixed results, but ultimately, BC produced enough attempts and got enough moderate gains that they did plenty to get the job done.
This is a challenging game for me to handicap, given the injuries at QB for both teams. Duke’s bugaboo is their pass defense, and regardless of who is at QB for VT, they aren’t likely to get ripped through the air. This is easily the worst pass offense (and offense) that they will have faced since September. I believe Duke will want to be stubborn with their ground game and they should find success doing so, assuming they can at least pose a modicum of a threat in the passing attack. Duke should operate with their typical pace in this game, although I wonder if they may slow things down some if Holmberg can’t go, or if he’s playing through an upper-body injury? VT is slightly below average with their pacing, and they may elect to slow things down some as well. It’s possible they actually speed things up, as teams that have moved quickly against Duke have shown success, but that’s not likely correlated. Duke’s biggest weakness shouldn’t be badly exposed in this game, and I think their offense can have some success on the ground. Both of these teams are toast this year, and Fuente will soon be fired. Cut will likely be done following this season, but it will surely be handled with exponentially more decorum than the situation in Blacksburg. Duke has been blown out by several teams that are out of their league and possess great offenses, but they’ve shown the ability to compete with legitimate peers. I suspected that they would experience some positive scoring regression last week, and they did, but they still left a couple of TDs on the field against an excellent Pitt defense. Better for them in this game is that they will be able to run the ball, and that is the weakness of the VT defense. VT is 2-1 the last three in this series, winning 38-31, losing 45-10, and winning 31-14. The Hokies haven’t beat a P5 foe by double digits this year, and I don’t think that changes this week. I’ve got a small-ish bet on Duke +11.5. I think the potential QB loss for VT looms larger than it does for Duke, considering the Dukie’s ground prowess and favorable matchup. Don’t wanna overextend here, but I’m willing to make VT prove it.
BC @ GT (-2/53.5)
BC 5-4. W 51-0 Colgate 525-189 (8.1-3.5) WITH JURK*, W 45-28 over UMass 471-335 (7.7-5.7) MOSTLY GROSSEL, W 28-3 over Temple 221-239 (4.6-4.0) NO JURK TEMPLE BACKUP QB*, W 41-34 (34-34 reg) Missouri (OT) – 450-391 (5.8-6.0) GROSSEL, L 13-19 @ Clemson – 357-438 (4.8-6.4), L 7-33 NC State – 291-381 (4.2-6.6), L 14-28 @ Ville – 266-438 (3.9-6.8), L 6-21 @ Cuse – 251-358 (3.5-5.9), W 17-3 VT – 346-235 (5.2-4.6) JURK
GT 3-6. L 21-22 NIU – 429-301 (5.5-5.1), W 45-17 Kenny St – 412-272 (7.0-4.3), L 8-14 @ Clem – 309-284 (4.3-4.3), W 45-22 UNC – 394-369 (6.4-5.0), L 21-52 Pitt – 432-580 (6.8-7.4), W 31-27 @ Duke – 440-489 (6.9-5.4), L 40-48 @ UVA – 570-636 (7.3-8.7), L 17-26 VT – 366-491 (6.5-6.3), L 30-33 @ Miami – 329-563 (4.7-7.4)
I already touched on the VT/BC game last week, so, no need to rehash.
GT and Miami met last week, which meant it was guaranteed we were due for a weird game. Weird, it was. GT was thoroughly outplayed, but covered the number and had a chance late in the game. Ultimately, Miami was too explosive on offense for GT to pull out the road win. When Miami gave up a big play, it was primarily an issue with their linebackers being out of position. The GT offense will stress your backers, and GT was competitive because they executed and Miami failed to do so. GT benefited from a 71-yard run, a 50-yard passing TD to Gibbs, and they returned a fumble for six. They were held to 329 yards at 4.7 YPP. That was the lowest YPP that Miami has allowed to a P5 foe, and nearly 40% of the yardage for the game came on two plays. Miami fumbled the ball a bunch and GT held a 21-17 half time lead and also lead 28-24 in the 4Q. This was the right result for Miami, who were clearly better. TVD played well and hit big plays, but GT dropped at least a couple of would-be interceptions.
When BC has the ball, it will be weakness versus weakness. It’s possible that Jurkovec was just rusty last week and that he’s gonna be fully healthy here and return to pre-injury form. If he does, BC will win the game. That said, he didn’t look good last game. I would be apprehensive to assume that he’s ready to roll in this one and all we saw last week was rust. He threw a few balls that looked like Matt Fink had donned a red bandana and gold lid. Jurkovec was effective as a runner, and it seemed that keeping the ball created some issues for VT as it was unlikely they prepared for much QB keeper with Jurkovec being a last minute addition to the starting lineup. GT’s defense hasn’t been great against anybody, but they’ve seen some talented and athletic QBs, and they’ve had mixed results. While it’s not totally fair to look at the totality of BC’s offensive performances against P5 foes this year, because Jurkovec has only played in two of those games and one was against a hapless Missouri defense, the numbers aren’t particularly inspiring. They scored 41 against Missouri but havent scored more than 17 points since. The weakness that I referenced for GT is their defense. They’ve allowed 32 PPG against P5 foes this year, and the numbers are worse if you take out their first two games against Clemson and UNC. They’ve allowed at least 26 in their past five games, and they’ve given up some biggies in that span as well. It’s worth pausing and realizing that BC will be the worst offense they’ve played in many weeks, but this unit has been bad. I cashed on BC +3 last week once I heard that Jurkovec was likely to go, as he’s a massive upgrade over Grossel, but as I’ve said ad nauseam, he wasn’t good. Against GT, you want your rush defense to be better than your pass defense, but that’s not the case for BC. I think some of their woes in rush defense have been a result of game scripts, as their offense was so hapless under Grossel, teams would build a lead and pound it on em. BC will likely want to run the football as they did last week, and that is good for GT as their major disabilities are at the back when the ball is in the air. Zay Flowers hasn’t been good for much of this year, but I suspect he could play better now that he has a legitimate P5 QB and can get back in rhythm with him. BC operates at a slow tempo and GT likes to move quickly. This will be the slowest paced team that GT has played since NIU in week one where 43 points were scored. GT continues to play in close games, but they aren’t winning many of them. I think that is the nature of the Jeff Sims experience coupled with some negative variance. I had this game circled as a potential under spot on Sunday, and I got the number I needed. I went under 56.5. The two deciding factors will likely be if Jurkovec was actually healthy but just rusty last week, and what kind of Jeff Sims we get in the game. This is a high-variance bet, but I think I got a good number, and the early returns in the market are positive. At the current range of 52.5-53.5, I would be more inclined to pass or make a small play. A lot could go wrong here and I think having 28 to give both halves is what gives me comfort. GT is 2-1 the last three in this series, but BC won 48-27 last season (we don’t need that again!) and the previous two games were under the Admiral’s option in which GT won 17-14 and 37-17 (now that’s more like it!). No strong opinion on the side, it seems like another close game for Tech, I hope BC wins for my RSW bet, but I’ll go something like GT 27-24.
Cuse @ Ville (-3/55.5)
Cuse 5-4. W 29-9 Ohio (383-346, 6.2-5.5), L 7-17 Rutgers (258-195, 4.2-2.7), W 62-24 Albany (623-135, 9.4-2.5), W 24-21 Liberty – 305-369 (4.5-6.0), L 30-33 @ FSU – 389-378 (6.2-5.5), L 37-40 Wake (OT- 34-34 REG) – 514-426 (6.0-6.2), L 14-17 Clemson – 356-314 (5.3-4.3), W 41-36 @ VT – 550-437 (7.0-6.8), W 21-6 BC – 358-251 (5.9-3.5)
Ville 5-4. L 24-43 Ole Miss (N) 355-569 (7.8-4.6), W 30-3 EKU – 441-235 (6.9-4.2), W 42-35 UCF 501-420 (6.6-6.6), W 31-23 @ FSU – 395-453 (4.9-6.0), L 34-37 @ Wake – 522-501 (7.5-6.0), L 33-34 UVA – 513-522 (8.4-6.1), W 28-14 BC – 438-266 (6.8-3.9), L 13-28 @ NC State – 434-361 (6.2-6.0), L 24-30 Clemson – 397-345 (5.7-5.1)
Cuse had a bye last week. They beat BC 21-6 the week prior. They are 5-4 and looking to secure a bowl bid.
Ville lost a close game at home to Clemson last week. The song remains the same for the Cards, they play well for three quarters and then crap their drawers in the fourth quarter. Against Virginia, NC State, and Clemson, they’ve been outscored 18-0, 18-0, and 13-0 in the final stanzas. They led all of those games in the fourth but were outscored 49-0. They’ve had more yards than their opponents in nine of their last fourteen losses. I’ve been saying it all year, but there needs to be some serious questions asked of Satterfield’s coaching aptitude.
I’m pretty excited about this game. You have two of the most fun, under-appreciated dual-threat QBs in college football squaring off.
They’ve played some mutual opponents thus far:
Cuse @ FSU: L 30-33 – 389-378 (6.2-5.5)
Ville @ FSU: W 31-23 – – 395-453 (4.9-6.0)
Cuse @ Wake: L 37-40 (OT – 34-34 REG) – 514-426 (6.0-6.2)
Ville @ Wake: L 34-37 – 522-501 (7.5-6.0)
Cuse v Clemson: L 14-17 – 356-314 (5.3-4.3)
Ville v Clemson: L 24-30 – 397-345 (5.7-5.1)
Cuse v BC: W 21-6 – 358-251 (5.9-3.5)
Ville v BC: W 28-14 – 438-266 (6.8-3.9)
Average scores:
Cuse: 24-24
Ville: 29-26
The two worst units on the field will be the Cuse pass offense and Ville pass defense, so we’ve got weakness on weakness. The two best units on the field will be the rush offenses for both teams. I give Cuse the edge in rush defense between the two, but Ville is much better at stopping the run than the pass, and Cuse is more balanced defensively. This should be a slightly above average paced game, but the clock will still be churning as both teams are going to want to run the ball. I believe that Ville has the edge in the game, both because they are going to pass better, despite how bad Ville’s secondary has been, and because they are playing at home. Ville has won two of the last three games in this series: 30-0, 56-34, and Cuse won 54-23 in ‘18 behind the Swamp Kicker Eric Dungey. The line and total seem pretty solid to me. I’ll enjoy this game as a spectator, but unlikely with skin in the game as a bettor. If forced to pick something on the game, I suppose I would lean over, as I could make a case for how this turns into a fun shootout, but there isn’t enough meat on the bone to get me off the sidelines right now. If under took money and I could get a 54 or better, I may get involved. I’ll go Ville 31-28.
NC State @ Wake (-2/66.5)
NC State 7-2. W USF 45-0 – 525-271 (8.0-4.2), L @ Miss St 10-24 – 335-316 (4.4-4.9), W Furman 45-7 – 505-196 (7.4-3.7), W 27-21 (14-14 REG) Clemson (OT) – 386-214 (4.0-4.4), W 34-27 La Tech – 418-480 (6.2-6.1), W 33-7 @ BC – 381-291 (6.6-4.2), L 30-31 @ Miami – 421-420 (6.6-5.9), W 28-13 Ville – 361-434 (6.0-6.2), W 28-14 @ FSU – 400-271 (5.8-3.8)
Wake 8-1. W 42-0 ODU – 352-272 (5.0-3.5) , W 41-16 Norfolk – 413-336 (6.9-4.8), W 35-14 FSU – 484-317 (5.4-6.2), W 37-17 @ UVA – 473-506 (6.4-5.9), W 37-34 Ville – 501-522 (6.0-7.5), W 40-37 @ Cuse (OT- 34-34 REG) – 426-514 (6.2-6.0), W 70-56 @ Army – 638-595 (12.3-7.2), W 45-7 Duke – 677-315 (8.2-5.1), L 55-58 @ UNC – 615-546 (6.8-7.0)
NC State has responded well to their loss at Miami a couple of weeks ago. They’ve since beat Ville 28-13 (deceptive) and a Travis-less FSU 28-14. The biggest takeaway from the FSU victory was how well their secondary played. FSU had a really tough time winning 1v1 matchups against them, and they played aggressive defense and challenged them every step of the way. They got a huge road victory and are still alive in the ACC arms race. The Noles didn’t pick up a single first down until their fifth drive of the game. By then, NC State had already hit a 62 yard bomb on a coverage bust and then had another nice drive and led 14-0. The Pack had more touchdowns than the Noles had first downs. The pack led 14-0 at half with a 224-78 yardage edge. FSU ran for 0.8 YPC, punted six times, and were 0-8 on third downs. FSU opened with a surprise onside kick and recovered. They made some schoolyard plays and cut the lead to 14-7. FSU kicked the ball out of bounds, and two plays later, NC State was in the end zone after two passes to their backs and terrible tackling by the Noles. FSU had a great drive and converted a fourth and one from the 3 on a Corbin wildcat to cut the lead to 21-14. The teams traded punts and FSU took a gamble by going for it on fourth down on their own 43. That failed and the Pack took over. Once again, NC State ran a little screen to their back, and once again, FSU failed to tackle anyone and they housed it for 43-yards and a 28-14 road win. NC State’s backs had 145 receiving yards in the game on six catches. Good luck against Rooster Knighton this week, Noles!
I already talked some about the Wake/UNC game. Well, not in too much detail, but it went about like most Wake games do against bad defenses and good offenses. It was an epic shootout. Wake did have a running back and several defensive backs get injured in the game. Their statuses are unknown at this time.
This handicap is pretty straightforward for me. Wake averages 39 points per game against P5 foes. If you go down the list of defenses they have faced, it’s easy to see why. They have a unique scheme, a vet QB, vet line, and talented receivers. That said, they have been challenged by a good defense a total of zero times this season. That changes this week. While NC State has lost several key members of their defense throughout the season, they are far and away the best group that Wake will have faced. Fortunately for Wake, NC State’s offense is one of the least threatening P5 units that they will have faced this season. They aren’t bad, by any means, but they have a below average rush offense, and that is where you rip Wake. The Pack will surely lean on the ground game and try to keep Wake’s offense off the field and play defense by offense. NC State averages 26 PPG against P5 foes, and they rarely go over 400 yards of offense in those games. Wake only allows 28 PPG on defense, but they shouldn’t be confused with a good group. As I mentioned, their clear weakness is against the ground game, and that is the absolute weakness of the entire NC State team. Wake gets after the QB pretty well and while NC State isn’t terrible at allowing pass rushers to get home, they are trending the wrong direction as the season progresses. Four of Wake’s last six opponents are fast paced teams, but the Pack are more methodical in their pace, and I suspect they try to slow things down even more to wear on Wake’s defensive front and keep Hartman off the pitch. I lean towards NC State unders nearly every week, and I finally got a chance to take one in the 70’s. This isn’t a feel good play, but I think it’s merited. I’m currently five points better than the market with an under 71.5. There may be some meat left on the bone, but it’s not at a point where you can absorb 5 TDs per half and still get the monkey, I mean money. Sorry bout that. I think the Pack are actually the better football team and they get the win in this game as Wake levels off to close the year, in what will still remain a terrific season for their program. NC State has only allowed one team to crest 30 points this fall. That was a revitalized Miami offense (31 points) in a game of strange happenings. Wake is 2-1 the last three, but the Pack won 45-42 last year. I like the Pack to win a close game, 31-30.
Notre Dame @ Virginia (+5.5/64.5)
ND 8-1. W 41-38 @ FSU – 431-442 (6.2-6.0). W 32-29 Toledo – 449-353 (6.0-5.6), W Purdue 27-13 343-348 (5.2-4.4), W 41-13 Wisky (N- Chicago) – 242-314 (3.5-4.6), L 13-24 Cincinnati – 341-386 (4.6-6.2), W 32-29 @ VT – 401-321 (5.8-4.5), W 31-16 USC – 383-424 (5.4-6.1), W 44-34 UNC – 523-564 (7.7-7.7), W 34-6 Navy – 430-184 (7.0-3.2)
UVA 6-3. W 43-0 Bill & Mary 545-183 (8.5-3.5), W 42-14 Illinois – 556-337 (7.6-4.7), L 39-59 @ UNC – 574-699 (7.3-10.3), L 17-37 Wake – 506-473 (5.9-6.4) , W 30-28 @ Miami – 449-372 (5.7-5.4), W 34-33 @ Ville – 522-513 (6.1-8.4), W Duke 48-0 – 528-325 (6.7-4.0), W 48-40 GT- 636-570 (8.7-7.3), L 49-66 @ BYU – 588-734 (9.2-8.8)
The Irish beat up on the Naval Academy last week. Nearly every game against an option team is a throw away from a what we learned standpoint. They had better athletes by a significant margin and they stopped the option better than they have in many, many years, thanks to Freeman’s experience at Cinci in seeing it. The main takeaway is that their depth at WR is dangerously thin. Their pass catchers are gonna be pretty winded to wrap up the year as they won’t have many opportunities to get a blow.
UVA was off of a bye week last week. That was extremely timely as QB Brennan Armstrong injured his ribs in a shootout loss at BYU. I listened to an interview that Armstrong gave over the weekend and he indicated that he feels 100% better and is “good to go”. Ultimately, his health will likely determine the outcome of this game.
The biggest mismatch in this game is the Notre Dame offense against the UVA defense. Notre Dame continues to play good offensive football and UVA boasts one of the nation’s worst defenses. They are miserable in all facets of defense, but the rush defense is the worst of the worst for them. They are still bottom 30 in pass defense as well, but bottom ten in rush defense. Assuming that Armstrong is healthy this week and remains healthy for four quarters, they should score some points on Notre Dame. That’s not a knock on Notre Dame, UVA simply scores on everyone. The game scripts aid in that venture, but they are a top-flight, high-volume passing attack with a multitude of dangerous pass catchers that can rack up YAC and explosive plays. I still believe hitting explosive plays is the path to beating the Irish defense, but they have improved as the season has progressed. I could make a case for an over bet, but my concern is Armstrong’s health. We’ve seen when they need to go with the backups, both this year and last year, and that won’t end well. I’m not in a rush to lay the points on the road with the Irish, but it’s the only side that I could realistically back. The Irish are 3-0 all-time in this series, but the only recent game was a 35-20 win by ND in ‘19. I assume that Irish DB Kyle Hamilton will miss this game. If he’s wise, he will play his next game in an NFL uniform. I have no issues with a high scoring affair and ND listed as a small favorite. Irish win 38-31.
Miss St @ Auburn (-5.5/50.5)
Miss St 5-4. W 35-34 La Tech – 435-369 (6.6-6.0), W 24-10 NC State – 316-335 (4.9-4.4), L 29-31 @ Memphis – 469-246 (5.7-4.6), L 25-28 LSU – 486-343 (5.5-6.4), W 26-22 @ aTm – 438-297 (5.8-5.7), L 9-49 Bama – 299-543 (4.0-7.9), W 45-6 Vandy – 522-155 (6.1-3.7), W 31-17 Kentucky – 438-216 (5.9-4.5), L 28-31 @ Arkansas – 486-393 (6.6-5.3)
Aub 6-3. W 60-10 Akron – 613-188 (10.4-3.0), W 62-0 Alabama St – 538-176 (9.3-3.0), L 20-28 @ Penn State – 367-396 (4.6-6.0), W 34-24 Georgia State – 419-384 (5.4-5.4), W 24-19 @ LSU – 453-358 (5.9-5.0), L 10-34 UGA – 318-432 (4.4-6.2), W 38-23 @ Arkansas – 427-460 (7.0-5.2), W 31-20 Ole Miss – 483-464 (6.3-5.7), L 3-20 @ aTm – 226-409 (3.2-6.4)
Miss State coming off a weird loss at Arkansas with a post game win expectancy of 64%. They had nearly 100 more yards than the Hogs and 1.3 YPP more. The Hogs jumped out to a 10-0 1Q lead and State didn’t complete a pass until 12 minutes into the game. State was driving and Hogs picked them off. Miss State defense holds, have a nice drive and they missed their first FG of the game. Hogs answered with a FG of their own and lead 13-0 late 2Q. Hogs pick off State near end zone but its DPI and State throws a TD pass to cut it to 13-7 right at half. Yardage was 170-174 at break. Hogs had 8 penalties for 62 yards. Start of 3Q, Miss State converts a 4th down in own end and have nice drive to take lead 14-13 mid 3Q. Ark moves the ball and kicks another FG, 16-14 with 4 min to play in 3Q. State gets a big 42 yard completion but they missed their second FG of game. Hogs have a nice drive and take lead 23-14 early 4Q. State answers with nice drive, 23-21. Hogs miss a FG. State has a nice drive, scores a TD to take 28-23 lead with 2 min to play. Hogs march the field and take the lead 31-28 with 20 seconds to play. It’s not over. State drives a good portion of the field and miss a 40-yard FG, their third of the day. That prompted Mike Leach to publicly advertise walk-on kicker tryouts after the game. It was hilariously the backup kicker that missed the final one, after the starter got yanked for his 0-2 start. They are 9-17 combined for the year.
Auburn laid a total pant-turd against Texas A&M. Live by Bo Nix, die by Bo Nix. Here is a good breakdown from 247Sports, “Being man-handled at the point of attack by Texas A&M’s defensive front, Auburn’s offense went lifeless following a field-goal drive on its second possession. The Tigers’ next four drives in the first half netted 0.4 yards per play, two three-and-outs and all four ended in punts. Sacked twice in the first half and pressured a few more times than that, Nix cooled off from a 6-for-8 start and missed on six of his next nine passes. In the run game, Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter had 24 combined yards on two runs, then 11 yards on eight carries the rest of the first half. And it wasn’t as if the Tigers didn’t have opportunities. After a 12-yard punt return by Demetris Robertson and a punt from Texas A&M’s own end zone, Auburn started with the ball on its own 47- and 49-yard line, respectively. The Tigers went three-and-out on both drives, totaling -5 yards on six plays. On Auburn’s six drives in the second half, it punted from inside its own 35-yard line twice, fumbled for a Texas A&M touchdown, missed a field goal, turned the ball over on downs and threw an interception.
After two efficient outings against Arkansas and Ole Miss, Nix was never able to get in a rhythm behind a porous offensive line. The junior completed 20-of-41 passes for 153 yards and an interception, and was sacked four times, the most this season. Bigsby was easily Auburn’s best offense, carrying 15 times for 69 yards. Auburn’s offense has now gone its last six quarters without a touchdown.” There was only one touchdown scored in the entire game, and that came on a Nix scramble that resulted in a fumble recovery for an Aggie TD. Auburn’s defense put forth a heroic effort considering how toothless the offense was for the entire day. The Ags still posted 400+ yards at 6.2 YPP. 165 of those yards came on four plays, two on ground and two through the air. aTm QB Calzada hurt his shoulder and exited the game, but he returned and gutted out a victory. aTm hit several chunk plays, but they didn’t convert a 3rd down until the middle of the 3Q. Texas A&M was about to score but Achane was stripped as he was headed into the end zone and Auburn recovered.
When Auburn is getting Bo Nix magic, they are a formidable team. When the negative variance hits, they get held to peanuts. Unfortunately for them, they play a very underrated Bulldog defense. Against the three best defenses that Auburn has squared off with, they’ve scored 20, 10, and 3 points. They didn’t average more than 4.6 YPP in any of those games. Auburn’s receivers aren’t a legitimate SEC unit, but they seem to be dropping less balls than they did early in the season. They just don’t have any difference makers on offense, aside from both of their backs, Bigbsy and Hunter. Unfortunately for them, they play a very good Mississippi State rush defense. Well, they are a very good total defense as well, but they are tough to run on. I don’t think Auburn’s offense does anything spectacularly that should cause a ton of heartburn for State’s defense. The one thing you have to factor in with Auburn games at home is the haunted nature of their field. Strange, strange happenings are sure to occur when they play at Jordan-Hare. Aside from a 49 point outburst from Alabama, State has been really good against P5 foes. They only allow 23 ppg. Auburn allowed 34 to Georgia and 28 to Penn State, but they’ve held every other opponent under 23 points. Auburn is 2-1 the last three in this series, winning 24-10 last year. Auburn has a new DC this season, but they held this air-raid to 240 yards at 3.6 YPP last year. I think that Miss State is probably the slightly better football team, but I think Auburn pulls out a close victory. I tried for Under 53.5 at open but got 52. I added more under at 52.5 and then went back over at 50, to essentially buy myself the extra half point to 52.5 and have a tiny window of 50, 51, 52 to win multiples. I still prefer the under, but I tried to do some gymnastics to put myself in position for a small scoop. It was kinda a gut feel type of thing. 24-23 Auburn.
USCe @ Missouri (-1/55)
SC 5-4. W EIU 46-0 – 439-109 (5.9-2.5), W ECU 20-17 – 323-263 (5.1-4.2), L UGA 13-40 – 491-310 (7.4-4.9), L UK 10-16 – 216-332 (4.2-5.0), W 23-14 Troy – 357-303 (5.9-4.4), L 20-45 @ UT – 370-472 (4.9-6.6), W Vandy 21-20 – 434-312 (6.5-5.2), L 14-44 @ Texas A&M – 185-477 (3.2-6.0), W 40-17 Florida – 459-340 (7.0-6.1)
Missouri 4-5. W CMU 34-24 – 468-475 (6.9-5.5), L 28-35 @ UK – 398-511 (5.2-7.3),W SEMO 59-28 – 675-373 (9.4-7.3), L 34-41 @ BC (34-34 Reg – OT) – 391-450 (6.0-5.8), L 24-62 UT – 396-683 (5.4-8.8), W 48-35 N Tex – 474-493 (6.5-6.6), L 14-35 Texas AM – 328-432 (4.5-6.4), 37-28 @ Vandy – 502-380 (7.0-5.8), L 6-43 @ Georgia – 273-505 (4.1-8.0)
South Carolina beat the tar out of Florida last week as three-score dogs, winning 40-17. Imagine the ALT line of SC -21.5 paid a pretty penny! South Carolina led 23-10 late in the first half before an SC defender stripped Emory Jones and scored a TD to take a 30-10 lead into the break. The Cocks’ offense has been abysmal this season, but their ground game came alive against a lethargic Florida defense. Prior to the 40-point eruption, they hadn’t scored more than 21 points against a P5 foe. They started Jason Brown at QB, and he likely will get the nod again this week.
Missouri finally covered a game! The fact that it came against Georgia makes it even more unexpected. What makes the unexpected even more unexpected is that they did it without their starting QB. It’s unknown whether or not Bazelak will return this week or if they will go with the 2-QB system again with Tyler Macon and Brady Cook.
This is a tough game to handicap. If I fully believed in the resurgence of the South Carolina rushing attack, I would gladly take them with a full-size bet. Missouri’s rush defense woes are well documented. They are far and away the worst rush defense in the P5. South Carolina has the better defense of the two by a significant margin. While South Carolina’s offense had been a doormat until last game, Missouri’s offense has allowed 35, 41, 62, 35, 28, 43 to P5 foes. Any of those numbers are probably good enough for a USCe cover. I’m going to wait to see some personnel stuff until later in the week before I decide exactly how I want to attack this fully. I’ve got a small bet on SC ML when they were a slight dog. I may do something else or end up adding to that. Missouri 2-1 last three in this series, winning 17-10 last season. 31-27 Game Cocks*.
UK @ Vandy (+21.5/52.5)
UK 6-3. W 45-10 ULM – 564-87 (8.4-1.4), W 35-28 Missouri – 511-398 (7.3-5.2), W 28-23 UTC – 356-339 (5.7-5.4), W 16-10 @ USCe – 332-216 (5.0-4.2), W 20-13 UF – 224-382 (4.8-5.4), W 42-21 LSU – 475-408 (7.7-5.6), L 13-30 @ UGA – 243-416 (3.5-8.9), L 17-31 @ Miss St – 216-438 (4.5-5.9), L 42-45 Tennessee – 612-461 (6.2-9.8)
Vandy 2-7. L 3-23 ETSU – 321-314 (4.3-5.3), W 24-21 @ Col State – 342-445 (4.3-6.3), L 23-41 Stanford – 398-442 (4.7-7.5), L 0-62 UGA – 77-532 (1.7-7.0), W 30-28 UConn – 439-523 (6.0-6.5), L 0-42 @ UF – 287-479 (3.6-7.7), L 20-21 @ USCe – 312-434 (5.2-6.5), L 6-45 Miss State – 155-522 (3.7-6.1), L 28-37 Missouri – 380-502 (5.8-7.0)
Kentucky played an absolutely bonkers game with Tennessee. I’ll highlight some key plays. UT hit a 75-yard WR screen for a TD on their first offensive snap. Kentucky answered with a methodical drive for a TD to tie it 7-7 mid 1Q. UT ran three more plays and this time hit a mismatch TD with a LB covering Velus Jones which went for 72 yards. 14-7 Vols. UT hit another big play, 40 or so yards if I recall, but their WR stepped out of bounds and it would have been another absurdly long TD play. The Vols fumbled in UK territory and the Cats had another methodical drive that resulted in a TD to tie it at 14. UK finally got a stop and then they had another 11 play, 68-yard TD drive with just under 4 minutes ot play in the half – 21-14 Cats. UT got the ball following the kickoff near midfield and converted a 4th down due to penalty and scored to tie it 21-21. UK turned the ball over on downs with 16 seconds left to play in the half. UT cashed in another FG as time expired and took a 24-21 lead to half. UT ran 22 plays in the half and had 267 yards of offense and 24 points. UK had 293 yards, but they ran 49 plays! UK went 75 yards on 10 plays following the intermission and took the 28-24 lead. UT started their next drive at midfield again and went 49 yards on 3 plays. Will Levis had the Cats driving but then made a total bonehead play that resulted in a 56-yard pick 6 for the Vols. The TD scorer, Alontae Taylor, had this to say after the game, “Is he dumb? He really just threw the ball to me.” UK answered with a 5 minute, 9 plays, 75-yard TD to cut the lead to 38-35 at the end of the 3Q. Wan’Dale made a great play on the score. UK turned the Vols over on downs in Cat territory. UK crossed midfield on their next drive and then they were stopped on downs. UT went 47 yards on 3 plays and took the 45-35 lead. The Cats went 75 yards on 5 plays to cut the Vol lead to 45-42 middle 4Q. UT had a long drive that got down to the Cats five yard line but penalties and poor execution pushed them back and they missed a 35-yard FG. UK had the ball at the Vols’ 35 yard line with an opportunity to tie or win the game, but they got pushed back out of comfortable field goal range and were again turned over on downs. UK had a 35-17 first down edge, 612-461 yardage edge, and they held the ball for 46 minutes to UT’s 14! UK ran 99 plays to UT’s 47, but the Vols averaged 9.8 YPP to UK’s 6.2. These two often play in crazy games, and this was another one to add to the collection.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but this is another game where Vandy holds no edges. I’m not in a hurry to lay 21 points with UK against anyone, and that’s the case in this one. Vandy has played better football in two of their last three games. That said, I’m not sure how they get many stops in this one. They allow 41 points to P5 foes and they average 13, for a -28 differential. They’ve averaged 18 per game over the past three, so it’s possible that they score enough to keep it within three touchdowns, but I don’t really care about this one. The Cats only average 26 PPG against P5 foes, and while their offense was really rolling last game and Vandy’s defense stinks in all facets, this is a pass for me. UK has won the last five in this series, but two of those three were by one score. I don’t think it’s gonna be that close, but I’m also not laying this number on the road with this UK team that is likely in a flat spot. 35-17 Cats.
NMSU @ Bama (-51.5/67)
Bama 8-1. W Miami 44-13 – 501-266 (6.5-4.3), W Mercer 48-14 – 424-216 (6.5-4.0), W 31-29 @ Florida – 331-439 (5.3-6.2), W 63-13 USM – 606-213 (10.3-3.7), W 42-21 Ole Miss – 451-291 (5.9-4.6), L 38-41 @ aTm – 522-379 (6.4-6.5), W 49-9 @ Miss State – 543-299 (7.9-4.0), W 52-24 UT – 574-346 (6.2-6.4), W 20-14 LSU – 308-295 (4.9-4.0)
This should be a real treat. Bama 59-10.
aTm @ Ole Miss (+2.5/55.5)
aTm 7-2. W Kent State 41-10 – 595-336 (7.8-4.5), W @ Col 10-7 – 288-260 (4.2-4.1), W New Mex 34-0 (6.4-2.1), L 10-20 Arky (N-Dallas) 272-443 (4.6-6.5), L 22-26 Miss State – 297-438 (5.7-5.8), W 41-38 Bama – 379-522 (6.5-6.4), W 35-14 @ Missouri 432-328 (6.4-4.5), W 44-14 USCe – 477-185 (6.0-3.2), W 20-3 Auburn – 409-226 (6.4-3.2)
OM 7-2. 43-24 Ville (N-Atlanta) – 569-355 (7.8-4.6), W 54-17 Austin Peay – 630-374 (7.7-4.6), W 61-21 Tulane – 707-305 (7.5-5.4), L 21-42 @ Bama – 291-451 (4.6-5.9), W 52-51 Arkansas – 676-611 (8.7-7.3), W 31-26 @ UT – 510-467 (5.0-5.9), W 31-17 LSU – 470-326 (6.4-4.8), L 20-31 @ Auburn – 464-483 (5.7-6.3), W 27-14 Liberty – 466-457 (8.5-5.6)
I’ve touched on the Auburn/aTm game above.
Ole Miss came out and was thoroughly beating the brakes off Liberty last game. Their dominance on the line of scrimmage almost felt embarrassing for Liberty, almost. The Rebs ripped off a 70-yard rushing TD on their second play from scrimmage. The teams traded consecutive punts and then Liberty missed a 38-yard FG. Ole Miss dialed up a bomb to Dannis Jackson and gained 50-yards. Their offense hid the skids and they were forced to kick a FG and take a 10-0 lead at the end of the 1Q. Ole Miss forced a punt and cashed in on a 4 play and 58 yard TD drive to take the 17-0 lead. Ole Miss picked off Willis for the first time on a very strange play that should have been a catch by his WR. Ole Miss got down to the Liberty 16 after having a short field to start with and Kiffin decided to go for it on 4th and 8 and they came up empty. Liberty was having a nice drive before Willis threw a turrible interception deep in Ole Miss territory. Corral found Dannis again on a big passing play and Ole Miss notched a TD in under a minute and took a 24-0 lead before half. Liberty answered the bell with a 75-yard TD drive on the first drive of the 3Q. Ole Miss had a long drive that resulted in another choice for Kiffin with a 4th and 9 at the Liberty 21. They kicked the FG and took a 27-7 lead. Liberty had a long 11 play drive that ended with a Willis rushing TD and a 27-14 score. The Rebs drove and elected to go FG again, but they missed this one. Ole Miss turned Liberty over on downs near midfield, but they punted it back to Liberty. The two teams exchanged punts and Liberty was somehow threatening a back door cover but Willis was picked off in the end zone to settle on a 27-14 final. Ole Miss sacked Malik Willis nine times and picked him off three times. The Rebs offense was solid on a per play basis, but Corral’s lack of mobility due to his ankle injury, the injuries on the line, and the depleted pass catching room have caused this offense to regress from their torrid start to the year. Kiffin’s insistence to go for it relentlessly on fourth downs isn’t helping their cause.
The Rebs have faced two good defenses this year and they’ve scored 20 and 21 points in those contests. They were in a much stronger position on offense at that point, and they are still going to be operating with a limp for the foreseeable future. They could get a couple of WRs back this week, but unlike what they had to face in the Liberty game, with guys running wide open in acres of space, they are going to be seriously tested by the aTm secondary, which will be the best unit they’ve faced this season. Ole Miss is a run first team and we just saw the Ags defensive front eat up the Auburn OL. Ole Miss will possess one of the best offenses that aTm will have faced, but they are a group that has only allowed 17 PPG to P5 foes. I assume they will reach and exceed that number, but perhaps not by much. As I previously mentioned, Calzada hurt his should last week, but he showed a lot of grit and toughness by coming back into the game and finishing the job. That said, and similar to what we’ve seen from Corral, this could be something that he could reinjure in this game, leaving them with no experience at QB in a hostile environment on the road. Playing on the road isn’t something that Jimbo’s boys have done much of this year. They certainly haven’t played in a hostile environment thus far, with road trips to Boulder, a neutral site in Texas, and at Missouri. Knowing Jimbo’s philosophies, I believe they will want to lean on their ground game and move at their typical methodical pace to limit Ole Miss’ possessions. I thought that Ole Miss generally defended the run well last week, but they had some momentary lapses when the ball carrier got into space and they either took poor angles or missed tackles. The weakness of the Rebs team is their rush defense, and I believe that will be a significant, perhaps the MOST significant, edge for either team in this game. Since Corral had his 30-carry affair in Knoxville, this offense hasn’t cut the mustard. They haven’t scored more than 31 points in any of those games, and this will be the toughest defenses they’ve played to date. I think the matchups favor the Ags, but instead of laying the points with the short road favorite, I elected to go back to the well and take yet another Ole Miss under. This one didn’t open with the usual 60’s to 70s figure that we’ve seen in this under run, but they actually have a difficult offensive matchup this week. I took Under 58.5 and the market has concurred with my opinion, dropping to 55.5. That is probably the limit of where I would consider taking it. aTm has won the last three in this series, the most recent being a 24-17 win in College Station. I think this game will be higher scoring, but I’d love that final to come through again. Jimbo wins a close game, 28-24.
UGA @ Tennessee (+20.5/55.5)
UGA 9-0. 10-3 Clem (N-Charlotte), 256-180 (4.2-3.0), W 56-7 UAB 539-174 (9.0-3.3), W 40-13 USCe – 491-310 (7.4-4.9), W 62-0 @ Vandy – 532-77 (seventy-seven) (7.0-1.7), W 37-0 Arky – 345-162 (5.1-3.6), W 34-10 @ Aub – 432-318 (6.2-4.4), W 30-13 UK – 416-243 (8.9-3.5), W 31-7 v UF – 354-366 (6.8-4.8), W 43-6 Missouri – 505-273 (8.0-4.1)
UT 5-4. W 38-6 BGSU – 476-219 (5.4-3.6), L 34-41 Pitt – 374-397 (5.7-4.8), W Tenn Tech 56-0 – 417-179 (5.3-2.8), L 14-38 @ UF – 423-505 (6.2-7.4), W 62-24 @ Missouri – 683-396 (8.8-5.4), W 45-20 USCe – 472-370 (6.6-4.9), L 26-31 Ole Miss – 467-510 (5.9-5.0), L 24-52 @ Alabama – 346-574 (6.4-6.2), W 45-42 @ UK – 461-612 (9.8-6.2)
There isn’t much to discuss in regards to the UGA/Missouri game last week. The Dawgs faced two backup QBs and handled business as expected.
I’ve already spoken about the UT/UK game last week.
Without taking anything away from the historic defensive run that the Dawgs are in the midst of, the level of offenses that they’ve faced aren’t impressive. That will change this week. The Vols’ offense is humming. This will be their greatest test to date, and while I’m not saying that UK’s defense should be considered anything close to apples to apples for UGA’s behemoth unit, we just saw the Vols average a first down each time they snapped the ball! I took UT +22 in the lookahead market last week. Having seen how last week played out, I would trade some of the likely CLV that I picked up for a fresher UT defense. As mentioned, they were on the field for 46 minutes and defended 99 plays. That’s tough to bounce back from in November. I’m not surprised that the over has taken money in this one, both because of the matchups and also because the Vols just endured a ton of body blows. UK marched the ball with balance much the same way that I believe the Dawgs will. UT gives up 36 PPG to P5 foes, and that is what Georgia averages on offense. That is a reasonable expectation for the Dawgs, with them more likely than not to slightly exceed those numbers. Can UT do enough on offense to keep up? I think so. As we know there are similar philosophies between what both Bama and Smart do. UT scored 24 in that game and had 6.4 YPP, more than Bama’s 6.2. That was a 7-point ball game late in the 3rd quarter before UT made a series of small mistakes that snowballed into a 28 point loss, which had no business being the actual outcome. UT hit big plays, which they will have the opportunity to do as UGA will let their corners play on an island with the UT pass catchers. Hooker is playing about as well as an QB in the country right now, and I’m confident that he can push this UGA defense for the first time this season. The Dawgs have won the last four in this series, and none of those contests were particularly close. That was to be expected as UT has been in a black hole until Heupel was hired, and the program has been fast-tracked and is having an excellent year. As is the case anytime UGA plays a team from the East, the opportunity for an easy, breezy blowout will be there. I’m betting that the Vols push them at home more than any team since Clemson in the opener. UGA doesn’t give up more than 13 on defense and UT doesn’t score less than 20. I’m banking on the Vols hitting some shot plays and making just enough plays on defense to keep it within the number. 38-23 Dawgs.
Miami @ FSU (+2.5/61)
Miami 5-4. L 13-44 Bama (N-Dallas) – 266-501 (4.3-6.5), W 25-23 App State – 375-326 (4.9-4.5), L 17-38 Michigan State – 440-454 (5.2-6.3), W Central Conn St 69-0 – 739-198 (10.6-3.1), L 28-30 UVA – 372-449 (5.4-5.7), L 42-45 @ UNC – 421-382 (5.3-5.2), W 31-30 NC State 420-421 (5.9-6.6), W 38-34 @ Pitt – 490-597 (6.9-7.4), W 33-30 GT – 563-329 (7.4-4.7)
FSU 3-6. L 38-41 ND – 442-431 (6.0-6.2), L 17-20 Jacksonville State – 335-350 (4.7-4.5), L 14-35 @ Wake -317-484 (6.2-5.4), L @ Louisville 23-31 – 453-395 (6.0-4.9), W 33-30 Cuse – 378-389 (5.5-6.2), W 35-25 @ UNC – 383-432 (7.1-6.4), W 59-3 UMass – 586-241 (9.8-4.0), L 20-30 @ Clemson – 241-377 (4.3-5.1), L 14-28 NC State – 271-400 (3.8-5.8)
I’ve already discussed both the GT and NC State games from last week.
I’ll get right to it, I’m not sure how FSU will score enough to keep up with Miami in this game. Since TVD has been at QB, against P5 foes the Canes have scored 28, 42, 31, 38, and 33 points. This offense is exponentially better with him at QB as opposed to King. TVD is young, so he makes some mistakes you’d expect from a green signal caller, but he’s got a great arm and can make some WOW throws. He has carved up two bad defenses and carved up two good defenses. FSU’s defense is somewhat comparable to GT’s in terms of ineptitude (they aren’t THAT bad) and the Canes just scored 33 with 563 yards (7.4 YPP). Miami has overhauled their pass catching room and included some of their young, talented pass catcher and they have paired well with TVD. FSU’s secondary is an issue and we just saw them miss tackles and have no idea how to defend a pass to a running back. That spells trouble as Rooster Knighton has proven to be an extremely dynamic dual-threat as a runner and receiver. We saw how bad the FSU offense was last week with Milton at QB. Jordan Travis had the flu and missed the game. He should be back this week, and that should mean the FSU ground game can get going again. The Canes rank 110th nationally in yards after contact and they are the second worst team in the P5 in terms of missed tackles. If FSU has to pass, it’s not going to go well, even though they have a tasty matchup against a porous Miami secondary. I like Miami in this game, but unless a line is terribly off in a rivalry game like this where you almost have to chuck the analytics out the window, I generally will abstain. I say it every year, but I feel like defenses tend to rise to the occasion in rivalry games such as this. Miami has won the last three in this series, last year taking it 52-10. I have slight leans to both Miami and the Over, but I don’t feel an inner green light to pull the trigger on either. I think this should be something like a 35-31 win for the Canes, but I’m gonna stay on the sidelines on this one.
Arkansas @ LSU (+2.5/59)
Hogs 6-3. W Rice 38-17 – 373-308 (5.7-4.2), W Texas 40-21 – 471-256 (7.1-4.0) , W Ga So 45-10 – 633-233 (8.7-3.7), W Texas AM 20-10 (N- Dallas) – 443-272 (6.5-4.6), L 0-37 @ UGA – 162-345 (3.6-5.1), L 51-52 @ Ole Miss – 676-611 (7.3-8.7), L 23-38 Auburn – 460-427 (5.2-7.0), W 45-3 ARPB – 504-223 (8.0-3.8), W 31-28 Miss State – 393-486 (5.6-6.6)
LSU 4-5. L 27-38 @ UCLA – 379-470 (5.3-7.5), W 37-7 McNeese – 306-142 (4.2-2.3), W 49-21 CMU – 484-284 (7.7-4.1), W 28-25 @ Miss St – 343-486 (6.4-5.5), L 19-24 Auburn – 358-453 (5.0-5.9), L 21-42 @ UK – 408-475 (5.6-7.7), W Florida 49-42 – 455-488 (6.6-6.5), L 17-31 @ OM – 326-470 (4.8-6.4), L 14-20 @ Alabama – 295-308 (4.0-4.9)
I’ve touched on both the Miss State and Alabama games above.
I’m running out of time. I took over 57.5. This is a high volatility game. LSU is the X-Factor in this game that will likely cause heartburn. They are all over the map on a week-to-week basis. LSU has dominated this series of late, winning the last five contests. They won 27-24 on the road last year. I think that Arkansas’ offense is going to stress a maligned secondary that is playing without four of their top five DBs. Alabama had acres of space last week and while the injuries they suffered on the line totally squashed the run game of the Tide, they had receivers running wide open all game. LSU tried to muck the game up and the game script meant that they could embrace the old school grind and not open things up. I’m betting that won’t be the case again this week, but it’s entirely possible, and I’m okay with that risk. This game should have an above average pace. I fully recognize the downside of an over bet in this game, but after seeing the way that the UF/LSU game played out, with somewhat comparable offensive styles between the Hogs and Gators, I’ll risk it for a chance to taste that biscuit. Hogs get off the snide in the series and win 33-30.
#MACtion
Well, if you are reading this, you’ve made it to another dose of midweek MACtion. There is no more despicable FBS product than what we will see tonight. Almost nothing makes sense in this league and I would contend that there are no good bets that can be made in the MAC. The only good bet you can make in this league is abstinence. Who is shaving points? When will the unexpected sleet storm come rolling in? Just how much cement did that DB pour into the soles of his cleats? Who will inexplicably attempt onside kicks or go for two when it’s entirely unwarranted? These are the questions that demand answers in the MAC. Do I recommend betting on this rubbish? ABSOLUTELY NOT. Am I going to? Well, I was going to undertake this as a thought experiment, but then I realized I need some skin in the game. I’m going to attempt to take a side or total in every midweek MACtion game for the rest of the season, and we will see how bad things can get. I’m going to put ten whole dollars ($10) on each of these selections in hopes of winning and being able to enjoy the fruits of my labor come December. What will I do with my theoretical winnings? I will buy a nice, hot delicious pepperoni and mushroom pizza and watch Home Alone 2 while I sup like a king. If I lose so much I have to sell my VHS player and can’t afford my pie, I’ll probably just keep reading about Monkey Gate and have a few cups of crushed ice instead. I know that winning the equivalent of 2 McUnits betting MACtion would be a Herculean task, but I feel up for it this season (I don’t).
The bad news is I went 1-4 on MACtion last week. The good news is that is my best five game stretch in MAC history. Dialed in. Feelin it. (When will it end?)
MACtion Tally: 1-4 (-$34)
Buffalo @ MOH (-7.5/57.5)
Ohio @ EMU (-6/60)
Akron @ WMU (-26/62)
Toledo @ BGSU (+10.5/50.5)
Kent State @ CMU (-2.5/72.5)
Ball State @ NIU (+2.5/62.5)
Tuesday:
Buffalo +7.5
Ohio/EMU Over 60
Akron Team Total Over 17.5
Wednesday:
Toledo -10.5
Kent State ML
NIU ML
Extra (Real) Plays:
Oklahoma/Baylor Over 62.5
ECU +6
Arkansas State/ULM Over 66.5
(Also took Michigan/Penn State Under 52.5 but it’s moved a lot)
