Rams @ Packers (-6.5/45.5)
Weather: A chance of snow showers and freezing drizzle before 7 am, then a chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 34. North northwest wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. A slight chance of snow showers before 7 pm, then a slight chance of snow showers after 1 am.
Cam Akers Over 16.5 rushing attempts -112 (FanDuel)
Since Akers became the featured back late in the season, his rushing attempts were as follows: 21, 29, 15, 21, 28. That’s an average of 22.8 attempts per game, with four of five exceeding 17 carries. The biggest concern is that in their lone loss during that stretch, he only had 15 carries. They are currently 6.5 point underdogs. One thing that was clear about the Rams in their game against the Seahawks is that Goff still isn’t right. He hasn’t played particularly well in cold weather games and has a surgically repaired thumb this go-round, so I think that McVay may be a bit more stubborn with the ground game. In the past five games, the Packers saw their opponent’s RB1 carry the ball for 10-31-0, 7-24-0, 14-59-0, 23-98-0, and 22-69-1 (15.2 average), so there is no guarantee that the Rams will stay ground-heavy, but given the weather and Goff’s limitations, I think Akers will see his typical 20 totes. Throughout the season, the Packers have seen opposing teams’ RBs average 21-92-1. Akers is currently the Rams’ best player, so I believe they will continue to feature him.
Cam Akers longest reception over 9.5 yards -118 (FanDuel)
In the aforementioned five-game stretch, Akers’ long reception is as follows: 22, 16, 0, 38, 44. In my opinion, the Rams don’t target him nearly as much as they should, but he’s shown his trademark explosiveness when given the opportunity. The Packers have allowed a RB a 10+ yard reception in 10 of their 16 games. RBs average approximately 5.5 catches on 7 targets against the pack for 48 yards with an average reception length of 8.5 yards.
***BONUS*** Davante Adams (+100) to have more receiving yards than Woods, Lazard, Tonyan, Higbee, Jones, MVS, Everett, Akers (Bet Builder)
Ravens @ Bills (-2.5/49.5)
Weather: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. West wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. (Night) A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
JK Dobbins Over 57.5 rushing yards -112 (FanDuel)
Dobbins was worked in a bit slowly this season. Looking at his past seven contests, he’s gone 15-70-1, 11-71-1, 13-53-1, 14-64-1, 11-77-1, 13-160-2, and 9-43-1. That’s good for an average of 12-77-1. He reached 58+ yards in five of those seven contests. He faces a Bills defense that allows opposing RBs to average 22-100-1. In their most recent five-game stretch, Melvin Gordon went 11-61-2 (long of 14), Sony Michel 10-69-0 (long of 29), and Jon Taylor 21-78-1 (long of 20). They shut down the Steelers and Fins. The Bills allow 4.6 YPC, which ranks in the bottom 25% of the league. The Ravens average 195 rushing yards per game, which leads the league. Their 5.6 YPC also leads the league, and in their last three, they’ve averaged 6.9 YPC. The Bills have done a nice job slowing the QB run; they only allow an average of four carries for 19 yards per game. They’ve only allowed two quarterbacks to exceed 50 rushing yards in a game. While I would be hesitant to bucket Lamar into that group, I believe the Ravens could rely even more heavily on Dobbins and Gus. I don’t watch a ton of NFL, but one thing I’ve noticed about the Bills is that they don’t appear to be the fastest group, and that could be a real issue if JKD can get to the edge. The Ravens have run for 249, 404, and 236 yards in their last three contests. Lamar has never played a football game in the snow, while Dobbins played his college ball way up north in Ohio, where there is surely snow on the ground for 365 days a year.
Gabriel Davis Over 26.5 receiving yards -112 (DraftKings)
Over Davis’ past seven contests, he’s gone for 3-79-1, 3-68-1, 3-19-1, 2-18-0, 3-33-0, 2-107-1, and 4-85-0. Since the rookie has acclimated to the league, that’s a rough average of 3-58-1 per game. Five of those seven contests have seen him eclipse 27 receiving yards, and just last week, he showed that he’s one of the most reliable targets on the Bills’ roster (4 catches on 4 targets for 85 yards). While Stefon Diggs should draw most of the defenses’ attention, Davis should continue to have win-able 1v1 matchups on the outside. While there can be concern or pessimism surrounding Jackson’s ability to handle the conditions, the same cannot be said for Allen. Playing his collegiate football in Laramie, Wyoming, Buffalo is where the snowbird locals head to during the winter for some hot wings and fun in the sun. Allen has the arm talent to cut the ball through the most blustery of winter conditions. Davis has recorded a 27+ yard reception in five contests this year, making his potential routes to cashing this bet vast.
