Welcome to “I Got 5 On It”, each week I’ll be picking five news-worthy subjects based around college football to cover. Ranging from views on Devy prospects, general college football talk, interesting stats, and a little bit of hip-hop music mixed in now and then.
1. Conference Odds: Sun Belt
The Sun Belt is a two-horse race. The overall depth of the conference has seen a great increase over the last five years. Schools like Troy, App. State, Georgia Southern, and Georgia State have all seen a major increase in recruiting over the last five years. Coastal’s most recent success should add them to that list over the coming years. But for the 2021 season, it’ll come down to Coastal Carolina (+200) and Louisiana (+125). Both teams return experienced quarterbacks and the two best in the SBC, but I’d give Grayson McCall the edge over Levi Lewis. The Ragin’ Cajuns bring back the 3rd most production in the nation at 95% while Coastal 17th at 89%. The two sit in opposite divisions within the SBC and don’t face each other in the regular season, so we are primed for a big-time game on Conference Championship Saturday. CCU has the more difficult draw of the two divisions. The east division has the three best teams outside of CCU and ULL according to the odds. The two faced off in 2020 with CCU edging out the victory by 3 points and the eventual rematch in the SBC Title Game was canceled. I’m giving CCU the slight edge due to Grayson McCall.
One school that’s a very intriguing up-and-comer is Georgia State (+1800). Over the five most recent recruiting cycles compared to the previous five, GSU has seen the biggest jump in recruiting in the SBC. Jumping 27 spots over the ten-year sample. The Panthers also bring back 92% (12th in the nation) of its 2020 production. They bring back rSO QB, Cornelious Brown who showed some flashes of being the next good SBC QB. Brown threw 17 TDs and rushed for another 7 TDs but had his two worst games against Coastal Carolina and Louisiana. I don’t think GSU can compete with the top dogs this year in the SBC but they are a team to keep an eye on for 2022.
Title Game: Coastal Carolina Vs Louisiana
My Pick: Coastal Carolina (+200)
Longshot: Georgia State (+1800)
2. Conference Odds: SEC
I believe the SEC is much more wide open than the odds indicate. Alabama (-167) is the big favorite at the moment but I think this may be the year that we see Alabama falter a bit. Suffering two regular season losses might be unthinkable at this point but I believe it’s possible. The Crimson Tide only brings back 56% of its production 123rd in the nation. I’m not 100% Bryce Young starts where Tua and Mac Jones ended. I expect him to have a few more learning curves than the previous two QBs. Betting against Nick Saban isn’t a smart move but I’m not as sold on this team as in prior years. If not Alabama then who?
Georgia (+250) has the next best odds and a few questions themselves. Like what are they doing at the receiver spot? George Pickens is lost for the entire year (most likely, we’ve seen returns like Amari Rodgers before) but they bring in Arik Gilbert and plan to play him at receiver. While he’s a physical freak, I still want to be able to see with my eyes that he can win consistently on the outside. The Dawgs welcomed in three top ten transfers according to 247Sports. One being the already mentioned Arik Gilbert, but they secured secondary help with Derion Kendrick and Tykee Smith both impact players this fall (if Kendrick’s off the field issues check out). If UGA can figure out their receiver issues, I think they’ll be the SEC favorite. They have too much talent in the receiving room for a couple names to not step up this fall in Pickens’ absence.
The dark horse in my eyes is the LSU Tigers (+1200). Just a year removed from one of the most talented CFB teams of all time. The Tigers have been hit with plenty of off the field issues over the last 18 months. I don’t think Coach O can go wrong with Max Johnson or Myles Brennan as the starting QB for the fall. No matter the QB they’ll have uber-talented sophomore receiver Kayshon Boutte on the other side of their passes. The defense was very poor in 2020 but they got an addition by subtraction with Bo Peleni leaving.
Texas A&M (+1000) rides into 2021 high off a really good 2020 campaign but the lack of clarity at QB is concerning. The most likely starter is Haynes King but I’m not sold on the rFR being a difference-maker in 2021. He’ll be a fine option down the road but King and Jimbo’s lack of creativity on offense leaves a lot to be desired. The Aggies have to find a way to become more explosive if they want to capture an SEC crown under Jimbo.
Ole Miss (+2500) is an even darker dark horse. The defense is still a hot mess but Matt Corral is a special talent that might be able to pull off an upset or two. Team that with the rest of the SEC West beating up on each other and the Rebels could sneak in the SEC Title Game. Very unlikely but a slim and fun possibility.
Title Game: Georgia Vs LSU
My Pick: Georgia (+250)
Longshot: LSU (+1200)
3. 2022 Recruiting Dominos
The running back dominos for the 2022 recruiting class are all following right into place. With recent commits from Branson Robinson (Georgia) and Omarion Hampton (UNC) leaving only one top ten RB uncommitted. As we sit today after 247Sports recent ranking updates. Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, and Texas each have two commits from top ten backs. If UNC is able to snag a commit from George Pettaway, the only uncommitted top 10 back, (Tar Heels are the current crystal ball favorite) they’ll have two backs in the top 11 as well. I did a full write-up on Hampton a few months back.
Robinson joins Jordan James as a UGA Dawg running back commit. In 2020, Robinson rushed for 121-1179-15 in just nine games. Rocked up at 5’10” and 220lbs, Robinson has a college build already but will be competing with a number of backs for touches in 2022. Robinson is going to develop into a big time back for UGA. His lack of top-end speed (11.40 100-meter time) leaves some room for improvement.
4. Rising Senior Spotlight
Recent Nittany Lion RB commit Kaytron Allen finds himself the focus of my rising senior write-up. Picking Penn State over Georgia, Florida, and Michigan State. From 247Sports “From a scouting standpoint, there’s a lot to like about Allen. After playing his freshman season in his home state of Virginia, he transferred into the national powerhouse that is IMG Academy and got a bulk of the available carriers as a sophomore. He ended up totaling 1,097 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground in 10 games. As a junior, Allen split time with Georgia signee Lovasea Carroll. He didn’t get as many carries as he did Year 1 at the boarding school, but he was still a big part of the offensive game plan and had his way early on in the season against a talented Orlando (Fla.) Edgewater defense as he rushed for 107 yards and three scores under the lights.”
Allen is a beefy back and is rumored to be around 230lbs as of last month. As one would expect out of a back of that size, Allen lacks speed and acceleration. I could tell just after a handful of highlights that I’m out on Allen. His speed and lack of burst just don’t do it for me. He’s a big and powerful downhill runner but just doesn’t do anything to get me excited. He’s got no special trait outside of his size. If anything he needs to slim down some. Displays the ability to be an asset in the passing game though.
Allen is a lot like other current PSU backs Noah Cain and Keyvonne Lee, all have great size but lack speed and playmaking ability. None of the three intrigues me as prospects. Fortunately for Penn State, their other committed running back, Nicholas Singleton, recently was bumped up to 247s top RB in the nation. He’ll add some juice to a rather bland backfield.
5. Freshman Spotlight
Moving forward until next fall, when we have some game action again, I’ll be highlighting an incoming freshman each week in the 5 spot. The Longhorns snagged themselves a good one late in the process. Originally signing with Michigan, Xavier Worthy asked out of his NLI and signed with Texas. As a sophomore Worthy clocked a 10.55 100-meters. Receiving him high praise from his teammates Bijan Robinson and Keondre Coburn “I know that he’s probably being compared to Jerry Jeudy, but I see a little bit of uniqueness in him when it comes to running routes, when it comes to exploding after a catch, when it comes to creating space,” Robinson said. “When he does catch the ball, he’s been very explosive for our offense.”
“When we start running routes at a park or at a different stadium, he just makes it look really easy for us,” Robinson said. “When I see him, I see a lot of real explosion coming out of him. I’m really excited to see what he can do for us this season.”
“That dude right there is another Tyreek Hill in college,” redshirt junior nose tackle Keondre Coburn said. “I have never seen somebody get into a second gear to go get a ball in my life the way he did a couple of days ago.”
And even Head Coach Steve Sarkisian got in on the praise party “It’s a big component to what we do,” Sarkisian said at Big 12 Media Days. “Having speed at wideout and taking the top off is a big component. We’re trying to be a physical running football team that can take the top off the defense when you commit to the run. Xavier Worthy is a guy that provides that speed.”
Worthy didn’t have a senior year due to COVID restrictions in California but in 2019 he tallied 54-992-16 (18.4 YPC). Listed at 160lbs, Worthy has some work to do in the weight room. Worthy does a great job of creating separation. His speed and acceleration are amongst the best in this entire incoming freshman class. The Longhorns have a lot of moving pieces at the receiver spot for 2021. Worthy’s big-play potential will earn some a role for this Fall. I’m not sure that he’s a day 1 one starter but he’ll be a steady option for whoever the starting QB is.
